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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2014 18:22:24 GMT -5
Remember when people were freaking out about Trey Ball in part because, "when will the Red Sox pick that high in the draft again?" Good times ... I'm OK with that but I'd rather they pick a more proven player, like a college hitter not too far from the majors, an Ellsbury or Pedroia. Those were good picks.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 6, 2014 18:54:42 GMT -5
Remember when people were freaking out about Trey Ball in part because, "when will the Red Sox pick that high in the draft again?" Good times ... I'm OK with that but I'd rather they pick a more proven player, like a college hitter not too far from the majors, an Ellsbury or Pedroia. Those were good picks. Sure, in hindsight. Bryce Brentz, Kolbrin Vitek, not so much. Jury is still out on Deven Marrero.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 6, 2014 23:17:54 GMT -5
Regardless of where we pick in this draft, I think cherrington goes best player available.
Then after he picks, eight posters on this board will criticize him, eight will love him and eight will say we have to wait four years to see what cherrington has drafted. The old hindsight strategy.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 7, 2014 8:49:43 GMT -5
Regardless of where we pick in this draft, I think cherrington goes best player available. Then after he picks, eight posters on this board will criticize him, eight will love him and eight will say we have to wait four years to see what cherrington has drafted. The old hindsight strategy. And no matter what they draft I'm gonna request they make him switch positions.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 7, 2014 9:11:30 GMT -5
Regardless of where we pick in this draft, I think cherrington goes best player available. Then after he picks, eight posters on this board will criticize him, eight will love him and eight will say we have to wait four years to see what cherrington has drafted. The old hindsight strategy. And no matter what they draft I'm gonna request they make him switch positions. You should hope for Jameis Winston. He can even change sports. He'll love the seafood in New England.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 8, 2014 8:51:58 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, COL would have the #1 pick, BOS would have the #7 pick for the 2nd time in three years and CWS would have the first unprotected pick at #12:
1. COL ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. TEX ---- 4. HOU -1.5 5. ARI -3.5 6. CHC -4.5 7. BOS -5.0 8. MIN -6.5 9. PHI -6.5 10. SDO -7.5 11. NYM -8.5 12. CWS -9.0 13. MIA -10.0 14. TBR -10.0
BOS is 4.0 games out of an unprotected pick and 5.5 games out of the #1 pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 8, 2014 18:25:48 GMT -5
I'm OK with that but I'd rather they pick a more proven player, like a college hitter not too far from the majors, an Ellsbury or Pedroia. Those were good picks. Sure, in hindsight. Bryce Brentz, Kolbrin Vitek, not so much. Jury is still out on Deven Marrero. Look, the point is, all of the Red Sox draft picks should turn out as well as Pedroia and Ellsbury or it's a total FAIL on their part.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 10, 2014 13:26:54 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, COL would have the #1 pick, BOS would have the #7 pick for the 2nd time in three years and NYM would have the first unprotected pick at #12:
1. COL ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. TEX ---- 4. HOU -3.5 5. CHC -4.5 6. ARI -5.5 7. BOS -6.0 8. MIN -6.5 (four-game losing streak) 9. PHI -6.5 10. SDO -8.5 11. CWS -10.0 12. NYM -10.5 13. MIA -12.0 14. TBR -12.0
BOS is 4.5 games out of an unprotected pick and 3.0 games out of the #4 pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 13, 2014 18:48:49 GMT -5
After three wins in a row, BOS finds itself with the #9 draft pick, behind PHI and MIN.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 13, 2014 20:21:19 GMT -5
this is what I feared when adding Cespedes and Craig(although he hasn't done much yet being hurt.)
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 13, 2014 20:35:35 GMT -5
No matter where the Sox end up ,they will not surrender that 1st rounder.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 13, 2014 23:15:35 GMT -5
No wild card race over the next 45 days but there's going to be some tension in the FO as that record moves RS closer to unprotected status.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2014 7:07:25 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, COL would have the #1 pick, BOS would have the #9 pick and SDO would have the first unprotected pick at #12:
1. COL ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. TEX -1.0 4. HOU -3.5 5. ARI -6.0 6. CHC -6.5 7. PHI -6.5 8. MIN -8.5 9. BOS -8.5 10. CWS -10.5 11. NYM -10.5 12. SDO -11.5 (five-game winning streak) 13. MIA -13.0 14. TBR -13.0
BOS is 3.0 games out of an unprotected pick and 3.0 games out of the #5 pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by cardsox on Aug 14, 2014 9:43:13 GMT -5
Big series coming up vs Hou. Losing 3/4 would really tighten things up. News about Tulo makes Col the odds on favorite for #1.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2014 9:48:08 GMT -5
Tulo is COL, not HOU.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2014 10:03:28 GMT -5
I'd bet money that the Mets are going to end up as the worst team with an unprotected pick.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 16, 2014 8:15:28 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, COL would have the #1 pick, BOS would have the #9 pick and CWS would have the first unprotected pick at #12:
1. COL ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. TEX ---- 4. HOU -3.5 5. CHC -5.5 6. ARI -6.0 7. PHI -7.0 8. MIN -8.0 9. BOS -8.5 10. NYM -10.5 11. SDO -10.5 12. CWS -11.0 13. MIA -13.0
BOS is 2.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TEX, BOS)
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Post by larrycook on Aug 16, 2014 23:31:32 GMT -5
Just when this team shows you a little something, and you think they got a little life, they lose a bunch in a row and look terrible doing it.
I still think we need to finish with a protected pick in order to sign some decent free agents.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 17, 2014 7:56:40 GMT -5
I tell you one thing Houston is gonna have a big budget to sign picks. But basically they have to draft for two drafts. A lot of pressure on there scouting department.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 17, 2014 11:56:44 GMT -5
Regardless of where we pick in this draft, I think cherrington goes best player available. Then after he picks, eight posters on this board will criticize him, eight will love him and eight will say we have to wait four years to see what cherrington has drafted. The old hindsight strategy. I know there are many people who make their careers doing it, but there is such a difference between a high school player and a college player that I think it is more of an art than a science deciding who is the "best player available." Not only have high school players faced lesser competition, they still have enormous development ahead of them, physical, mental, psychological, etc. So, there are more variables with high school players that have to be taken into consideration, and that makes them riskier draft choices. In the ten Red Sox drafts beginning with 2004, with their first round picks, the Red Sox have selected 10 players from high school and 17 from college (or junior college). Of those 10 high school players, only two have played in the major leagues: Bowden and Casey Kelly. Of the 17 college, or junior college, players, nine have played in the majors: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Hansen, Lowrie, Buchholz, Bard, K. Johnson, Hagedone, Ranaudo, and Bradley. Looking at all the other draft choices and who has played in the majors, there have been only eight high school players drafted below the first round who have played in the majors compared to 17 college players. I didn't compare how many high school vs college players were drafted because with success rates this low, it didn't seem to matter. Only a small percentage of both high school and college players made it to the majors, but of those, more than two thirds were college, or junior college players. Out of all those players drafted and signed over ten years, only 37 appeared in the major leagues, and only 10 of those were high school players.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 17, 2014 13:13:15 GMT -5
I thought that Buchholz was a JC player.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 17, 2014 16:46:32 GMT -5
My bad. I put him in the wrong column. That makes the HS results even worse. I'll fix my post.
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Post by kman22 on Aug 17, 2014 18:24:44 GMT -5
Regardless of where we pick in this draft, I think cherrington goes best player available. Then after he picks, eight posters on this board will criticize him, eight will love him and eight will say we have to wait four years to see what cherrington has drafted. The old hindsight strategy. I know there are many people who make their careers doing it, but there is such a difference between a high school player and a college player that I think it is more of an art than a science deciding who is the "best player available." Not only have high school players faced lesser competition, they still have enormous development ahead of them, physical, mental, psychological, etc. So, there are more variables with high school players that have to be taken into consideration, and that makes them riskier draft choices. In the ten Red Sox drafts beginning with 2004, with their first round picks, the Red Sox have selected 10 players from high school and 17 from college (or junior college). Of those 10 high school players, only two have played in the major leagues: Bowden and Casey Kelly. Of the 17 college, or junior college, players, nine have played in the majors: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Hansen, Lowrie, Buchholz, Bard, K. Johnson, Hagedone, Ranaudo, and Bradley. Looking at all the other draft choices and who has played in the majors, there have been only eight high school players drafted below the first round who have played in the majors compared to 17 college players. I didn't compare how many high school vs college players were drafted because with success rates this low, it didn't seem to matter. Only a small percentage of both high school and college players made it to the majors, but of those, more than two thirds were college, or junior college players. Out of all those players drafted and signed over ten years, only 37 appeared in the major leagues, and only 10 of those were high school players. You noted that high school players have a longer development, but still included recent drafts. Bradley is in the majors, but next year or two years from now, don't most of us think Swihart and Owens will be as well?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 17, 2014 18:43:09 GMT -5
If the season ended today, TEX would again have the #1 pick:
1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. COL -1.0 4. HOU -3.5 5. ARI -5.0 6. CHC -5.5 7. PHI -6.0 8. MIN -8.0 9. BOS -8.5 10. NYM -10.5 11. SDO -10.5 12. CWS -11.0 13. CIN -13.0 14. TBR -13.0
BOS is 2.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2014 2:18:30 GMT -5
Yes, HS players are at higher risk of busting, but they usually also have higher ceilings than college talent available at similar spots in the draft. That's the trade off-- high risk, but high reward.
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