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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 3, 2014 15:16:18 GMT -5
It looks like the Rays will be going for a top 10 pick, probably top 5.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 23:00:51 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, the Red Sox would be back in the top ten:
1. CHC ---- 2. TBR ---- (eight game losing streak) 3. ARI -0.5 4. HOU -2.0 5. PHI -2.5 (four game losing streak) 6. SDO -3.0 (assumes loss on Tues) 7. BOS -5.0 8. MIN -5.5 9. NYM -5.5 10. KCR -5.5 11. CIN -5.5 (four game winning streak) 12. PIT -5.5 (assumes win on Tues)
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, MIN, PHI, NYM, SDO, ARI, KCR, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)
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Post by taftreign on Jun 4, 2014 13:33:49 GMT -5
It looks like the Rays will be going for a top 10 pick, probably top 5. As disappointing as it would be for their franchise and fans you have to think this could end up being a long term blessing. They can move Price for at least two top 75 prospects either this July or in the offseason in addition there is a possibility they would move Zobrist who likely would get them a useable piece. Add in a top 5 draft pick and that is a jolt in the arm to their farm system. The team would still retain a solid core of young pitchers and an offensive core of Longoria, Myers and Jennings. Still hard to believe they have played as poorly as they have. Then again if you would have told me at the beginning of the season it was a lock Xander would put up an offensive line as he has I would never have thought the Red Sox team would be in the situation they are.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 23:47:08 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Tampa would have the top pick:
1. TBR ---- (ten game losing streak) 2. CHC -2.0 3. PHI -2.5 (six game losing streak) 4. ARI -2.5 5. HOU -3.0 6. SDO -4.5 7. BOS -5.0 8. NYM -5.5 9. CIN -5.5 10. COL -6.0 11. PIT -6.0 12. MIN -6.5 13. KCR -6.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, KCR, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)
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Post by taftreign on Jun 6, 2014 0:13:37 GMT -5
Top pick and pulling away fast.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 6, 2014 14:54:33 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Tampa would have the top pick: 1. TBR ---- ( ten game losing streak) 2. CHC -2.0 3. PHI -2.5 (six game losing streak) 4. ARI -2.5 5. HOU -3.0 6. SDO -4.5 7. BOS -5.08. NYM -5.5 9. CIN -5.5 10. COL -6.0 11. PIT -6.0 12. MIN -6.5 13. KCR -6.5 (tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, KCR, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)How embarrassing!
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 7, 2014 23:48:06 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Tampa would have the top pick:
1. TBR ---- 2. PHI -2.5 3. ARI -2.5 4. HOU -3.0 5. CHC -3.0 (five game winning streak) 6. BOS -4.0 (five game losing streak) 7. NYM -4.5 (five game losing streak) 8. SDO -4.5 9. CIN -5.5 10. COL -6.0 11. PIT -6.0 12. MIN -6.5 13. KCR -6.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, KCR, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 8, 2014 4:32:26 GMT -5
I typed this into a thread on the same topic at another site, it's just another armchair GM opinion but here it is:
Agree and disagree with a lot of stuff here. So, my opinion.
It's to early to either decide to go for it or to blow it up. It's not so much that the Red Sox aren't ready for that, it's more that the trade market will expand on both sides of the equation in another 2-3 weeks as more teams get comfortable with the fact that they are contenders and more teams get comfortable with the fact that they are not.
Some general thoughts.
If we do go for it, some of the problem solving will need to happen from the current group. Pretty much everybody except Xander, Lester, Lackey and the bullpen are under-performing. That includes guys like Pedroia and Ortiz as well as the ambulance corps. Yes there are excuses but excuses don't win ball games. We're not going to rape the farm to try to solve every problem to make a run at one more title. If our general management strategy is to win a World Series every four or five years, we're the luckiest fans in baseball.
If we don't go for it, we need to do it right. Doing it right means two things. Positioning ourselves for 2015 and beyond and finishing in the bottom 10 or better yet, bottom 7. Finishing above that but not in the playoffs would be costly for the future. Finishing in the bottom 10 not only gets you a better draft pick, it's a guaranteed slot which you don't lose by signing a free agent plus you get a competitive balance pick for a bottom 7 finish which is tradeable. Right now we are the 6th worst record.
To me, if we blow it up, we should blow it up big time. We are in the perfect position to do that. First, consider that we have in excess of $100m available for 2015 and that's before we even start to trade. The other part of the story is that we already have a system with a lot of trade chips so, a fire sale would bring more trade chips which could be traded for established players this off season. We wouldn't even need to trade for prospects with no clear path because they are tradeable. We could trade for a second base prospect for example.
Specific players: Lester. Either we sign him to a team friendly deal or we trade him. Don't forget, if we trade him, he's likely a free agent this coming year anyways. Since he'd be a mid season trade, he can't be offered a qualifying offer. No reason we couldn't trade him then sign him this coming off season. If he doesn't sign an extension now, it's the same situation except that we could offer a QO. All we would need to get back to break even is the equivalent of a draft pick and he'd definitely return more than that. I find it difficult to believe that a team with money to spend can't find the equivalent in a free agent market that is going to be the richest in pitchers in the past many many years. Lester, Scherzer, Garza, Sheilds and Masterson are all free agents. Samardja,Price & Sale are all said to be on the trading block. Add in RDLR, Workman,Ranaudo,Barns, Webster and whatever we get in trades, I find it difficult to believe that 2015 wouldn't have an outstanding pitching staff.
Lackey. He's the most tradeable player we have. Yes it's true that he also represents value to the Sox but, we're flexible enough financially going forward that we can turn a year's WAR into several years WAR from the players we'd get in return. He'd literally generate a bidding war which would include small market teams. It just doesn't get any better than that.
Doubront. If we can get value as a reliever, lefty relievers always return value, I'd let him go. I'm not convinced that his ceiling is any more than bottom of the rotation or bullpen arm.
Buccholz, I'd keep. First, I don't think it's wise to sell low. If we're going to dump, it really doesn't matter if he spends the rest of the year figuring it out. If he does, the upside is tremendous and he has a team friendly contract with little risk since the last two years of his contract are guaranteed. If he doesn't, we can trade him in the off season.
Peavy, I'd eat contact and trade. Basically buying a prospect from a lower market team.
AJP would be gone. He's basically a league average starter with a limited risk contract. He'd be appealing to teams like Baltimore that have a 2014 only need and it wouldn't matter if we traded him in the division.
Carp, Nava, Sizemore and Gomes. If we can get anything more than a sack of doo-doo, they'd be gone as well.
Other things I'd consider:
If we achieve protected draft pick status and we're likely to lose draft picks from free agent signings then we might as well go over on the spending on this year's draft and lose one more draft pick next year.
We are already likely to go over on the International Free Agent market in a big way so, since IFA's have an extra year before they are required to be put on the 40 man, we are in effect doing the equivalent of already compensating for next years draft. We could expand that even more.
I also don't think our fan base would be particularly upset with any of it if they saw a clear path to a brighter future.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 8, 2014 11:48:04 GMT -5
I typed this into a thread on the same topic at another site, it's just another armchair GM opinion but here it is: [amfox1 edit: quote deleted for length] Agree 100% here.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 8, 2014 12:40:32 GMT -5
I typed this into a thread on the same topic at another site, it's just another armchair GM opinion but here it is: [amfox1 edit: quote deleted for length] Is this true? I didn't think the competitive balance picks were associated in anyway with position of finish but instead on teams with the smallest market size and revenue, neither of which fits Boston.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 8, 2014 13:04:25 GMT -5
Guys can you go a little easy on the quoting please?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 9, 2014 20:42:01 GMT -5
I typed this into a thread on the same topic at another site, it's just another armchair GM opinion but here it is: [amfox1 edit: quote deleted for length] Is this true? I didn't think the competitive balance picks were associated in anyway with position of finish but instead on teams with the smallest market size and revenue, neither of which fits Boston. I just checked this year's picks, I'm probably wrong but surprised that Baltimore is one of the 7 smallest markets. Would also explain why the topic title isn't Battle for Top 7
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 9, 2014 22:15:27 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me how the hell the Marlins got the Pirates lotto pick for Bryan Morris? How come we didn't trade for that?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 9, 2014 22:20:23 GMT -5
Competitive balance picks:
The teams (A) in the 10 smallest markets and (B) with the 10 lowest revenues are eligible to be entered into the competitive balance Round A lottery. There is overlap between (A) and (B). For the 2014 draft, 13 teams were eligible for Round A (see below). All teams who don't win a pick in the Round A lottery are re-entered into the Round B lottery, along with any team that receives revenue sharing. For the 2014 draft, only SEA qualified to be added to Round B.
OAK and CIN were the only two eligible teams that were not awarded a competitive balance pick for the 2014 draft from those teams that qualified.
(A) Ten smallest team markets: KC, OAK, TB, MIL, SD, PIT, CLE, CIN, BAL, STL (B) Ten smallest revenue teams: KC, OAK, TB, MIL, SD, PIT, CLE, MIA, ARI, COL
The Red Sox will not be eligible to be awarded a competitive balance pick. They can, of course, trade for one.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 9, 2014 22:26:29 GMT -5
Tell me about it. I'd have given them a list of several relievers to choose from for the pick. I'd probably have given them Doubront for a 1st round supplemental who Miami could convert to a reliever if they wanted. That $1,457,600 draft slot money would have been very useful to land another solid draftee or to go under slot with and land a few other 500K players.
That could have been a player like Chase Vallot who they seemed to have loved or Spencer Adams, Nick Burdi, Cody Reed, Scott Blewitt, Tiquan Forbes or many others. I don't mean to undervalue Doubront but I'd trade him for a chance at one of those prospects and maybe a few 100K extra in the budget to land another given the AAA alternatives. I'd have asked Miami to consider throwing in some international draft slot money as well if it was Doubront.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 9, 2014 22:35:13 GMT -5
The whole Pirates draft in general seems really odd to me...
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 9, 2014 22:52:03 GMT -5
Tell me about it. I'd have given them a list of several relievers to choose from for the pick. I'd probably have given them Doubront for a 1st round supplemental who Miami could convert to a reliever if they wanted. That $1,457,600 draft slot money would have been very useful to land another solid draftee or to go under slot with and land a few other 500K players. That could have been a player like Chase Vallot who they seemed to have loved or Spencer Adams, Nick Burdi, Cody Reed, Scott Blewitt, Tiquan Forbes or many others. I don't mean to undervalue Doubront but I'd trade him for a chance at one of those prospects and maybe a few 100K extra in the budget to land another given the AAA alternatives. I'd have asked Miami to consider throwing in some international draft slot money as well if it was Doubront. Someone actually has to want injured, ineffective, out-of-options Doubront enough to give up the pick and the financial flexibility that comes with it. I don't necessarily get the love for Bryan Morris myself but the Marlins likely targeted him specifically. They didn't just take on some dude because they wanted to get rid of the pick.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 9, 2014 22:54:40 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me how the hell the Marlins got the Pirates lotto pick for Bryan Morris? How come we didn't trade for that? It was the other way around, Pirates got the Marlins pick. Agree we should have at least considered being in on that, comparable situation is Tazawa, but I wouldn't trade Tazawa for a comp pick. Wilson is also comparable in terms of team control but I doubt if the Marlins would have accepted Wilson.
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Post by sportnik on Jun 9, 2014 23:06:27 GMT -5
I can't believe the big market teams signed off on the competitive balance round. I can't fathom any other American business rewarding franchises for having the lowest amount of revenues. Any real business would reward franchises for maximizing sales. Bud Selig is a joke for a commissioner and someone needs to remind him that he is representing all teams, not just the Milwaukee Brewers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 9, 2014 23:14:00 GMT -5
The whole Pirates draft in general seems really odd to me... I think the opposite. I think that around the end of 2015 they will be considered the benchmark for small market team draft strategy and a small market powerhouse. ADD: I'm using end of 2015 because at that point they will only have Cutch under team control for one more year. Look at their team contractually and look at their top 10. They are positioning themselves to trade Cutch to fill in holes (middle infield). ADD2: Standard 'if everything goes as planned' caveat applies but even if they trade Cutch, one of Austin Meadows or Josh Bell will find themselves blocked. ADD3: I wonder if there are any teams in baseball with a less than Cutch center fielder, financial flexibility in 2016 and blocked middle infielders. I'll have to think on who that sounds like. Maybe the Pirates will talk to their usual trading partners.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2014 5:08:46 GMT -5
I can't believe the big market teams signed off on the competitive balance round. I can't fathom any other American business rewarding franchises for having the lowest amount of revenues. Any real business would reward franchises for maximizing sales. Bud Selig is a joke for a commissioner and someone needs to remind him that he is representing all teams, not just the Milwaukee Brewers. So much of baseball (draft order, revenue sharing, luxury tax, etc.) is predicated off the idea that the league as a whole does better when there's some semblance of competitive balance and large-market teams' advantage over small market teams is not overwhelming.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 10, 2014 7:29:11 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Tampa would have the top pick:
1. TBR ---- 2. CHC -3.0 3. PHI -3.0 4. ARI -3.5 5. HOU -5.0 6. NYM -5.0 (six game losing streak) 7. SDO -5.0 8. BOS -5.0 9. COL -6.0 10. MIN -6.5 11. CIN -6.5 12. PIT -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 7:55:10 GMT -5
If the Sox overspend on International amateurs this year, as has been widely reported, I know it creates a reduction in their intl pool money next year, but what about their draft allotment? Does anyone know definitively?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2014 8:15:13 GMT -5
If the Sox overspend on International amateurs this year, as has been widely reported, I know it creates a reduction in their intl pool money next year, but what about their draft allotment? Does anyone know definitively? Not sure whether you are asking... A) If the Red Sox overspend on international amateurs, will it affect their draft allotment? No, the two things are entirely unrelated. ---or--- B) If the Red Sox overspend on the draft the way they're reported to be doing in the international market, what does that do to their draft allotment next year? Well first of all, they're not, so don't worry about it. But if you're wondering, Mike wrote about it here: news.soxprospects.com/2014/06/welcome-to-signing-period.html
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 10, 2014 8:25:44 GMT -5
Question. In the unlikely event that the Sox go over on the signings to the point that they would lose their first pick next year, does that become their second round pick if their pick is protected ?
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