SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
How Strong is the System?
|
Post by zil on Jun 17, 2014 8:12:58 GMT -5
But of course that is completely ridiculous. Yeah, what's the argument? That the system looks bad if we ignore a bunch of good-to-excellent players it produced? I maintain that this entire thread boils down to "the Red Sox are bad and I'm cranky about it". No coherent or relevant argument about the farm system is being made. I don't get what there is to be cranky about. We just won the World Series. We get to watch Bogaerts every day. Our young pitching is starting to bubble up to the big club and succeed. And the system is stacked as far as the eye can see (the eye can't see Salem since light is incapable of escaping a black hole).
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 17, 2014 8:30:27 GMT -5
Yeah, what's the argument? That the system looks bad if we ignore a bunch of good-to-excellent players it produced? I maintain that this entire thread boils down to "the Red Sox are bad and I'm cranky about it". No coherent or relevant argument about the farm system is being made. I don't get what there is to be cranky about. We just won the World Series. We get to watch Bogaerts every day. Our young pitching is starting to bubble up to the big club and succeed. And the system is stacked as far as the eye can see (the eye can't see Salem since light is incapable of escaping a black hole). 32-38
|
|
|
Post by zil on Jun 17, 2014 8:57:59 GMT -5
Our record would be a huge problem if we were the Tigers with an aging team, an elderly owner, no recent championships, a limited farm system, and a window of contention screaming shut. That's clearly not our situation so there's no reason to freakout. Do we really want to act like MFY fans?
Edit: I know you're not stating it as your personal viewpoint. I don't want this to come off like I'm targeting you, fenwaythehardway.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jun 17, 2014 9:26:18 GMT -5
The poster mentioned earlier in the thread that guys like Masterson and Reddick and Lowrie and Iglesias didn't count. ADD: I agree with the rest of your post, though, and think the "how many wins do you need to come from prospects" way of conceptualizing it is a very good one. By that standard, a guy like Bogaerts alone should be enough, as long as the rest of the roster does its job (which, to date, it hasn't). In fairness though he did say that "Rizzo was the only guy you want to have back". He never specifically mentioned Lowrie. In any case it doesn't really matter because none of those guys is contributing to the Red Sox and they only have Brock Holt, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and Jake Peavy to show for that group which is part of the problem. I think a fair conclusion is that the Red Sox don't have a lot of homegrown talent or players that they traded homegrown talent for contributing to the current team and that's part of the reason why they are dissapointing so far this year. It's also a fair conclusion that this will change in the next couple of years. The lesson is probably that the Red Sox should give Jackie Bradley JR a heck of a lot of rope or risk him doing well in an A's uniform.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 12:38:51 GMT -5
I've deleted the last half-dozen posts. Let's get back on topic. This is about the third or fourth time this thread has devolved into petty insults. If it happens again, I'm locking it. Make your argument and defend it, rather than calling others names or being upset that they disagree with your point of view.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jun 17, 2014 14:32:48 GMT -5
The poster mentioned earlier in the thread that guys like Masterson and Reddick and Lowrie and Iglesias didn't count. ADD: I agree with the rest of your post, though, and think the "how many wins do you need to come from prospects" way of conceptualizing it is a very good one. By that standard, a guy like Bogaerts alone should be enough, as long as the rest of the roster does its job (which, to date, it hasn't). In fairness though he did say that "Rizzo was the only guy you want to have back". He never specifically mentioned Lowrie. In any case it doesn't really matter because none of those guys is contributing to the Red Sox and they only have Brock Holt, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and Jake Peavy to show for that group which is part of the problem. I think a fair conclusion is that the Red Sox don't have a lot of homegrown talent or players that they traded homegrown talent for contributing to the current team and that's part of the reason why they are dissapointing so far this year. We have to Include RDLR and Webster as players we got from Kelly and Rizzo, right? The fact remains, that the farm system was less good for a stretch between '08 and '13. On top of that, one of the guys we traded for kinda busted and was traded (AGon). There were two key injuries, and we also traded guys, but we didn't have Lester, Ells, Pedroia, HanRam, Youk, Buch, Xander or the current depth. Middlebrooks, Kelly, Bowden and Kalish weren't super strong top-of-the-org guys, and Lars was Lars (and a 1B). I also believe we are stronger than that now. Not only Xander and RDLR who aren't on the list, but Betts, Webster, Barnes, Owens, Swihart and Ranaudo are legitimate top of the ladder guys, and the depth is excellent. Our best prospects are at the top, and there's a lot of them, and the next levels of the system have good upside as well. Lastly, I think the farmhand WAR is a good tool, though I think you have to figure a way to include trades (eg. AGon) but not include guys who are signed once they reach FA (eg. Pedroia).
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jun 17, 2014 16:04:43 GMT -5
I have down four by my count who did it between 2008 and 2013. They would be the Braves, Rays, Reds and Cards. The A's were next and would have made it had I included Cespedes. So that certainly seems like an achievable goal. I tried to double-check this. My own subjective thoughts below: Braves 2008: ?? (Gregor Blanco?) 2009: Hanson, Prado 2010: Heyward, Venters 2011: Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman 2012: Simmons, Medlen, Minor 2013: Teheran, Chris Johnson?, Evan Gattis? 2014: Alex Wood? Rays 2008: Longoria 2009: Price, Zobrist 2010: ?? (Jaso? Joyce?) 2011: Jennings, Hellickson? Niemann? 2012: Moore, Cobb, McGee 2013: Myers, Archer 2014: Odorizzi? Nitpicking a little I guess, but Joyce played 92 big league games with the Tigers before he got to the Rays, and Chris Johnson played parts of 3 seasons for the Astros, and it's a little bit of a stretch to call him a quality starter anyway, given that most of his value last year was a by-product of a .394 BABIP that seems unsustainable, at least on the surface
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 16:12:39 GMT -5
Yeah, I tried to be over-inclusive rather than under-inclusive there, and definitely made some mistakes like Joyce where I forgot they had played with other teams.
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Jun 17, 2014 17:43:09 GMT -5
He's not popular, but he's quite relevant. Dan Shaughnessy wondered in his column today about the sox farm system. Most of you won't like this, but he has an interesting point. The top prospects are at AA or above. The major league team stinks and one reason is there's no depth. It's a perfect chance for new blood, yet there is none. Last year Allen Webster busted in his call up. Middlebrooks has been terrible. JBJ's hitting is as bad as I've seen from a Sox regular outfielder in my lifetime (I was born in the '60s). His defense is excellent but offense is necessary. Bogaerts is going to be an excellent third baseman but even he looks like a position switch. Heck, Stephen Drew had to be re-signed. There's plenty of opportunity, but not much help available from the farm. Back in the 90s we heard over and over about the Blue Jays farm system. Baseball America and Peter Gammons were in prickly heat about it. Jose Pet, Sil Campusano anyone? It turned out to be a myth. Of course, the 80s blue jays system was historically terrific. At some point, we need to leave the vacuum and honestly ask whether the Sox system is all hype. I'm not scouting box scores. I'm looking at the players on the field. The problem with CHB is this. He is only around when there is a negative spin needed on Boston sports. His career should have ended with the Curse of the Bambino. A curse that made CHB a lot of money in print. I really do put zero substance in anything he says. If you want to look at systems ask Law Badler etc...I'm assuming they know more than CHB. This is akin to asking my grandfather how to operate a brand new MacBook. Is it possible? Yes. Would you take his word over the people that use it everyday? Absolutely not. Maybe I'm biased because I met him at the Winter Meetings on business a few years back and he was an insufferable D-Bag but I stand by what I said regardless of my personal feelings towards him. The system has taken a leap forward this year. You need not look any further than Brian Johnson, Rafael Devers, Blake Swihart, Devin Marrero, and Sean Coyle to see that. Infact the only prospect who probably hasn't helped his value at all is Barnes. Webster has his again and RDLR, while technically not a prospect anymore, has proven along with Workman to be able to put a few quality starts together. Almost half way through the year and this has to be considered a tremendous success for the organization. Oh I forgot about Betts... The MLB team on the other hand... I have high hopes for the 2014 draftees as well.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 23, 2014 18:33:25 GMT -5
This is a few weeks old, but this Alex Speier podcast is a must-listen for its scouting tidbits on the low-minors prospects in the system. Speier talks to Paul Abbot, Greenville pitching coach, and Tim Hyers, minor league hitting coordinator. The headliners are Devers and Ball, but both guys also briefly touch on a number of other interesting low-minors prospects. Among the players who get a mention: Brian Johnson, Teddy Stankiewicz, Jamie Callahan, Cody Kukuk, Daniel McGrath, Joe Gunkel, Mauricio Dubon, Nick Longhi, and Javier Guerra. These guys are all very intriguing prospects on whom scouting info can be a little scarce, and Abbot and Hyers do a good job of highlighting some of each guys' strengths (albeit with less discussion on their weaknesses).
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jun 23, 2014 18:53:59 GMT -5
Come on, what else are the Sox's coaches going to say. They are going to highlight and maybe exaggerate "strengths" and downplay weakness. Part of their job is to build confidence. They do not do this by being blah about the player's "prospects".
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 23, 2014 19:11:01 GMT -5
Don't mean to imply that Abbot and Hyers were doing anything wrong by focusing on the strengths of these players. But, considering the direction this thread has taken, I also didn't want to suggest that the lower tier of the system is full of elite prospects and be accused of being a homer or a shill We don't have good scouting reports on a lot of these guys, and hearing their coaches talk about them is useful in getting to know what kind of players they are (what pitches they throw, what their one or two strongest attributes are, etc). But it's important to remember that, after hearing about how Kukuk touches 97 with his fastball and has two secondary pitches that flash plus at times, we're getting a positive spin on things, and that these guys also have weaknesses that their coaches aren't highlighting as much.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jun 23, 2014 19:48:18 GMT -5
Well, don't have to accuse you of being a shrill. You are one. But seriously, no doubt these are the guys that may have something as evidence by some of their stats, but too early to really call it for most. Seen too many kids over the years lose their luster as they advanced. I am curious why they haven't been able to develop any outfielders that can hit or viable first base prospects. Just a cursory look, but it seems in this year's draft they went more so after very athletic kids rather than just those with "baseball skills". This is not to say that the recent draftees do not have baseball skills
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 23, 2014 20:11:40 GMT -5
The Fellowship of the miserable is alive and well in this thread. Just win baby!
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jun 23, 2014 22:13:20 GMT -5
The Fellowship of the miserable is alive and well in this thread. Just win baby! That was just dumb. Does not show one bit of intelligence.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 23, 2014 22:29:34 GMT -5
I've had fever dreams more coherent than this thread.
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 23, 2014 23:02:25 GMT -5
I've been reading this thread for a while, and I think what is missing is a clear baseline for what constitutes a top farm system? I would propose this: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/10Obviously this list will change from year to year, but it is safe to say that from 2002 to 2006 the Red Sox drafted as well as anyone. From 2002 through 2006 the Red Sox drafted the following players who contributed almost all the WAR referred to in the link: 2002: Jon Lester (they also drafted Brandon Moss) 2003: Jonathon Papelbon, David Murphy 2004: Dustin Pedroia 2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie 2006: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Josh Reddick Obviously there is no way of telling at this point, but my impression is that while their 2007-2009 drafts were a little weaker than this (although I think Anthony Rizzo is an impact player), their drafts since 2010 have actually been stronger. I believe when you add in improved Latin American operations and the two pitchers the Red Sox got from the Dodgers, I find it hard to argue that the Red Sox' farm isn't just as strong as a decade ago, when it was arguably the best in baseball.
|
|
|
Post by zil on Jun 24, 2014 3:06:30 GMT -5
Jose Abreu with his 22nd homer for the White Sox. Meanwhile we have no power threats anywhere near graduating. A) They made an extremely competitive offer for Abreu. You can't blame the guy for taking what looked like the easier path to a starting job in the big leagues. B) Power is not the only or even most valuable thing a player can contribute. In the upper minors we have Betts, Swihart, Coyle, Marrero, Vazquez, and Cecchini on the positional side plus Owens, Webster, Ranaudo, Johnson, and Barnes on the pitching side. That's not good enough for you? C) On top of the guys in the high minors, Workman and RDR are already successfully making a big league impact. D) Bogaerts is scuffling right now, but since when does he not qualify as a power threat?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 7:23:24 GMT -5
This is a few weeks old, but this Alex Speier podcast is a must-listen for its scouting tidbits on the low-minors prospects in the system. Speier talks to Paul Abbot, Greenville pitching coach, and Tim Hyers, minor league hitting coordinator. The headliners are Devers and Ball, but both guys also briefly touch on a number of other interesting low-minors prospects. Among the players who get a mention: Brian Johnson, Teddy Stankiewicz, Jamie Callahan, Cody Kukuk, Daniel McGrath, Joe Gunkel, Mauricio Dubon, Nick Longhi, and Javier Guerra. These guys are all very intriguing prospects on whom scouting info can be a little scarce, and Abbot and Hyers do a good job of highlighting some of each guys' strengths (albeit with less discussion on their weaknesses). Seriously though, listen to this podcast. It's great. (I had a feeling I should have posted this elsewhere instead of bumping this thread. But I apparently overestimated this board once again.)
|
|
|
Post by joshv02 on Jun 24, 2014 7:58:04 GMT -5
That was my morning commute listening - thanks for the link.
|
|
|
Post by oilcansman on Jun 24, 2014 10:23:58 GMT -5
I've been reading this thread for a while, and I think what is missing is a clear baseline for what constitutes a top farm system? I would propose this: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/10Obviously this list will change from year to year, but it is safe to say that from 2002 to 2006 the Red Sox drafted as well as anyone. From 2002 through 2006 the Red Sox drafted the following players who contributed almost all the WAR referred to in the link: 2002: Jon Lester (they also drafted Brandon Moss) 2003: Jonathon Papelbon, David Murphy 2004: Dustin Pedroia 2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie 2006: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Josh Reddick Obviously there is no way of telling at this point, but my impression is that while their 2007-2009 drafts were a little weaker than this (although I think Anthony Rizzo is an impact player), their drafts since 2010 have actually been stronger. I believe when you add in improved Latin American operations and the two pitchers the Red Sox got from the Dodgers, I find it hard to argue that the Red Sox' farm isn't just as strong as a decade ago, when it was arguably the best in baseball. Good post. 2010,2011, 2012 were rock solid drafts. 2013 looks like a disaster, which is fine as long as 2014 isn't a bust. The current problems in the system arise out of mediocre drafts in '07, '08, '09 and the problems at the top of '06 and '10. The only exciting offensive players from all these drafts is Anthony Rizzo. Place, Brentz and Vitek are first round busts. If one of those three panned out, he would likely be with the Sox. '10 picks Coyle and Cecchini are still in the mix, so the jury is still out on all of '10. Sox have really done a terrible job of drafting power hitters. It's a trend, not bad luck.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 24, 2014 10:39:25 GMT -5
How many teams have successfully drafted power hitters without Top 5 picks?
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Jun 25, 2014 11:14:58 GMT -5
I've been reading this thread for a while, and I think what is missing is a clear baseline for what constitutes a top farm system? Obviously there is no way of telling at this point, but my impression is that while their 2007-2009 drafts were a little weaker than this (although I think Anthony Rizzo is an impact player), their drafts since 2010 have actually been stronger. 2010,2011, 2012 were rock solid drafts. 2013 looks like a disaster. Speaking of baseline, is 2012 rock solid? Is it fair to take into account that they Sox have pursued a strategy of getting lots of picks, so have more chances that other team? I recognize 2012 has Marrero, and Johnson making some signs of life, but given the three first rounders, is it unfair to be disappointed at one potential solid starter and a potential fifth starter/long man? More importatnly, the other high picks of Light, Callahan, Maddox and Buttrey never really showed anything; they did not just reach a level and not progress, they really have never shown anything. 1 (24) Deven Marrero SS Arizona State 1 (31)* Brian Johnson LHP Florida 1s (37)* Pat Light RHP Monmouth 2 (87) Jamie Callahan RHP Dillon HS (SC) 3 (118) Austin Maddox RHP Florida 4 Ty Buttrey RHP Providence HS (NC) 5 Mike Augliera RHP Binghamton 6 Justin Haley RHP Fresno State 7 Kyle Kraus RHP Portland 8 Nathan Minnich 1B Shepherd College 9 Mike Miller SS Cal Poly 10 JT Watkins C Army One specific question on HS arms, from a batch of 6 high HS arms, Ball, Buttrey, Callahan, Owens, Kukuk, Younginger, the vast majority have struggled immediately, not just as they moved up. Obviously Owens is the exception. I know in the longer term a 1/6 rate is very good. But can we read something into the immediate struggless of these kids even at the GCL level?
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 12:17:18 GMT -5
I think the 2012 draft is the definition of solid (as opposed to good or bad).
The point of my earlier post was that even though the Red Sox didn't draft many impact players between 2002 and 2006, they still managed to draft more impact than anyone else (at least as of 2012). There aren't many impact players in any draft class, and there are 29 other teams looking for them; if you manage to find even one, you have had a good draft.
Right now 2012 seems to consist of two solid (not necessarily impact) contributors (Marrero, Johnson) and an interesting arm (Callahan is young for the level and misses a few bats). That's solid.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jun 25, 2014 12:23:13 GMT -5
I think 2012 was solid as well although not sexy. Marrero and Johnson look like they'll be average or better big leaguers and if you get a few of those the draft should be called a success. Heck you want to talk about bad drafts when was the last Rays draftee to make it?
|
|
|