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Post by suttree on Jun 4, 2014 10:05:29 GMT -5
Coyle has a higher OPS at AA than Mookie.... I still like him at AA for the whole season (or near enough). Especially since he's a good candidate for trade. I don't think guys that project as utility infielders have much trade value. Coyle is a nice depth piece with some upside. Other more valuable pieces will probably be traded freeing up some room for him in the short term.
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Post by geezergeek on Jun 4, 2014 14:34:40 GMT -5
Here's the rub - Coyle will have to be added to the 40 man after this season or risk rule 5 exposure. If you are not going to expose him to the rule 5 draft then add during this season. I think he would have more value than Alex Hassan. Both are righties.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 4, 2014 15:01:54 GMT -5
Coyle has a higher OPS at AA than Mookie.... I still like him at AA for the whole season (or near enough). Especially since he's a good candidate for trade. I don't think guys that project as utility infielders have much trade value. Coyle is a nice depth piece with some upside. Other more valuable pieces will probably be traded freeing up some room for him in the short term. Yeah, you never hear of a huge trade that involves a utility player, and then actually gets jokingly referred to by that player's name in subsequent years. Coyle actually would be traded as a starting 2b for someone, and as such is worth more to someone else than to us.
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Post by suttree on Jun 5, 2014 9:35:25 GMT -5
Are you implying Punto was anything other than a throw-in? I would rather hold onto Coyle than use him as trade-filler. Guys like Coyle are comparable to used cars, you know best what you have, while everyone else is skeptical.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jun 7, 2014 11:03:52 GMT -5
If he cuts down his K rate to once every six at bats he'll jump in our rankings a lot. I hope he does.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 7, 2014 11:24:42 GMT -5
Are you implying Punto was anything other than a throw-in? I would rather hold onto Coyle than use him as trade-filler. Guys like Coyle are comparable to used cars, you know best what you have, while everyone else is skeptical. Coyle has looked pretty fabulous so far. I hope to go to a game this weekend.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 26, 2014 22:30:53 GMT -5
Sean Coyle is turning himself into a very nice trade asset (I think that Rule 5 protection is a sure thing by now) Or a legit option at 3B. If they hang onto him, have been wondering if he's the kind of guy who could sit on the bench for a few days and then come in and play a couple of days, then sit for a few more days.. A utility guy. Get him to learn corner OF and he can already play 3b/2b and think he was a HS SS already. Coyle might be a decent super utility guy. Team has had some pretty sour ones last decade overall, outside of Alex Cora.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 26, 2014 22:48:19 GMT -5
Just as a note, Coyle has played second base in all but two games since Betts' promotion to Pawtucket. He started at third base on 6/14 and 6/21. It's not clear that the Red Sox see him as viable at third base, but his defensive positioning is obviously worth keeping an eye on.
It's my gut feeling that Coyle gets traded at some point down the road, simply because I think he's going to be worth more to another team as a starting second baseman than he is as a backup second baseman, super utility, or third baseman on the Red Sox. I like him, so I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on this one. I also think he's positioned himself as someone the team adds to the 40-man roster, since he could probably stick on a bottom-feeder or desperate team without being abjectly awful by the time next season begins.
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Post by quintanariffic on Jun 26, 2014 22:53:54 GMT -5
If they hang onto him, have been wondering if he's the kind of guy who could sit on the bench for a few days and then come in and play a couple of days, then sit for a few more days.. A utility guy. Get him to learn corner OF and he can already play 3b/2b and think he was a HS SS already. Coyle might be a decent super utility guy. Team has had some pretty sour ones last decade overall, outside of Alex Cora. You mean like a Ben Zobrist type?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 26, 2014 22:58:50 GMT -5
Just as a note, Coyle has played second base in all but two games since Betts' promotion to Pawtucket. He started at third base on 6/14 and 6/21. It's not clear that the Red Sox see him as viable at third base, but his defensive positioning is obviously worth keeping an eye on. It's my gut feeling that Coyle gets traded at some point down the road, simply because I think he's going to be worth more to another team as a starting second baseman than he is as a backup second baseman, super utility, or third baseman on the Red Sox. I like him, so I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on this one. I also think he's positioned himself as someone the team adds to the 40-man roster, since he could probably stick on a bottom-feeder or desperate team without being abjectly awful by the time next season begins. This. And I also think that if they thought of Coyle as a legit full time 3B option, Gragnani would be in Portland and Asuaje in Salem. Coyle's best fit position is clearly 2B and anyplace else lowers his value. Also needs saying but Pedroia might be better served eventually moving to left field. How many years of minor hand issues does it take to make that call ?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 26, 2014 23:08:31 GMT -5
Another former Ray, but not him.. I was thinking Ty Wiggington, playing at Fenway with the wall so close and his swing. The K/BB ratio, Wiggy wasn't much with the glove (other than at 2b) and the power. It's why have been thinking the team should hang onto Coyle at least another full season to see how much more he develops before thinking of moving him. Wiggy types, Zobrist, like you mentioned, even Bloomquist are not as appreciated by some fans as they should be.
The team already has enough possibly/probably over achieving prospects that can be moved and can be moved if they wish in deals.
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Post by zil on Jun 27, 2014 3:26:50 GMT -5
Sean Coyle is turning himself into a very nice trade asset (I think that Rule 5 protection is a sure thing by now) Or a legit option at 3B. He might look nice in left.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2014 3:35:25 GMT -5
Sean Coyle is turning himself into a very nice trade asset (I think that Rule 5 protection is a sure thing by now) Or a legit option at 3B. .355 / .443 / .551 (253 PA), 22/25 SB, Mookie Betts in AA, age 21 .357 / .432 / .589 (191 PA), 12/12 SB, Sean Coyle in AA, age 22 The degree of relative interest in (and excitement about) Coyle is low. The sample size continues to grow with no signs of cooling off. I know, there's a huge difference in K rates. But glancing at his numbers, Coyle has been hitting the ball murderously hard. (And having said that, could I resist doing more than glancing?) He has an .064 HR/C and .184 XBH/contact, compared to Mookie's .025 and .114. If we can regard Mookie's .366 BABIP as a real product of his being way too good for the league, I'm not sure how much air we have to take out of Coyle's .444. (I mean that literally -- I'm not saying there's no air, just that it might be less than people are assuming.) Coyle's BABIP is 21% higher, but his XBH/Contact is 61% higher, and I don't know what the normal relationship between those is. And keep in mind that for non-freaks of nature, higher K rates are correlated to hitting the ball hard. Betts is indeed a freak of nature for his combination of low K rate and hard contact, but Coyle so far, has been just as freakish, if not more so, for a 5'8" 2B with those hardness of contact metrics. Truly interesting.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 27, 2014 4:30:29 GMT -5
I seem to recall that Coyle was making a lot of errors at 3rd in the beginning of the year. To me he is more likely an OF / 2nd baseman. And I think he ends up a sub, but he is still valuable nonetheless. Having a good defender with some pop off the bench at a cheap price is worth quite a bit.
To me he is similar to Middlebrooks in his approach and to Lowrie in terms of not being able to stay on the field. I love the SB numbers and he is clearly a better prospect to me than he has been given credit for. But does he end up a long term starter in mlb? I think he has a pretty good run as an inexpensive solution for a while, and a decent mlb career, but long term is he Ian Kinsler or Dan Ugla or a wash out? I think he probably plays somewhere while he is cheap. And he is probably traded this winter or sooner.
This July would seem to be an option.
Edit: I think he starts at least for a while ( maybe 3-5 years or more even). Hopefully he continues to improve but it also might be a good time to sell high, since we do have some depth at 2nd and he has been over performing this year in all likelihood.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 27, 2014 6:14:18 GMT -5
I seem to recall that Coyle was making a lot of errors at 3rd in the beginning of the year. To me he is more likely an OF / 2nd baseman. And I think he ends up a sub, but he is still valuable nonetheless. Having a good defender with some pop off the bench at a cheap price is worth quite a bit. To me he is similar to Middlebrooks in his approach and to Lowrie in terms of not being able to stay on the field. I love the SB numbers and he is clearly a better prospect to me than he has been given credit for. But does he end up a long term starter in mlb? I think he has a pretty good run as an inexpensive solution for a while, and a decent mlb career, but long term is he Ian Kinsler or Dan Ugla or a wash out? I think he probably plays somewhere while he is cheap. And he is probably traded this winter or sooner. This July would seem to be an option. Edit: I think he starts at least for a while ( maybe 3-5 years or more even). Hopefully he continues to improve but it also might be a good time to sell high, since we do have some depth at 2nd and he has been over performing this year in all likelihood. Last time I checked, he only had 2 errors at 3B. Fielding dependability isn't the issue. I've also never seen any similarities to Middlebrooks but your mileage may vary. Lowrie seems to be doing fine with the injury issue and what you said about Kinsler and Uggla can pretty much be said about any prospect.
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 9:12:33 GMT -5
Moved some good discussion from the gameday thread into this one.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 27, 2014 9:18:51 GMT -5
Last time I checked, he only had 2 errors at 3B. Fielding dependability isn't the issue. I've also never seen any similarities to Middlebrooks but your mileage may vary. Lowrie seems to be doing fine with the injury issue and what you said about Kinsler and Uggla can pretty much be said about any prospect. Last time I checked (just now), he has four errors in 32 chances at 3B. SSS, but I wouldn't count on him being a dependable 3B.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:45:15 GMT -5
I think people looking at him as a utility guy/bench player are short selling him, or at least his potential. Those numbers are pretty crazy, and it's not like he's old for the level. Admittedly, the average doesn't fit with his track record, but going from .250ish in high A to .360ish in AA can't all be flukish BABIP luck, and he's 22, so it's not like we can't/shouldn't expect development. I think we probably deal him, but I also think he makes a very solid trade chip in the relatively near future, and has a good shot at being at least a decent starter for someone in the long run
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2014 9:48:38 GMT -5
Given that he's sustained this performance from the last half of last year, I think we should treat Coyle as "real" until he shows us he isn't over a similar period of time.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 9:56:14 GMT -5
Coyle is a Middlebrooks type of prospect. Very interesting, but there's the strike out issue. Good second prospect in a trade for a blue chip prospect. Uehara & Coyle or Lacky & Coyle for Blue Chip outfield prospect?
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 10:11:56 GMT -5
IAdmittedly, the average doesn't fit with his track record, but going from .250ish in high A to .360ish in AA can't all be flukish BABIP luck, and he's 22, so it's not like we can't/shouldn't expect development. Our old friend Chih-Hsien Chiang went from hitting .260/.312/.420 as a 22-year-old in Portland in 2010 to hitting .340/.402/.648 as a 23-year-old in Portland in 2011 (in 358 PAs!). He then turned back into a pumpkin, never surpassing a .720 OPS in any subsequent year. Now, I'm not saying that Coyle is going to turn into Chiang, I'm just saying that flukey things happen in small samples. For instance, given Coyle's strikeout rate, I wouldn't expect him to hit .300 (or even .280) in any full season in the majors (absent extreme improvement in his contact rate, that is). I would focus less on the unsustainably high batting average that he's put up this year, and focus more on the improvements he's made in his strikeout rate (down to 22.5%, compared to 29% last year in Salem) and whether he can stay healthy the rest of the year. Based on his current peripherals, if his BABIP was a more reasonable .330 or so (still higher than league-average, to account for his potential above-average hardness of contact), he'd be hitting something like .260/.340/.490, which is still excellent, especially for a middle infielder.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:55:24 GMT -5
Our old friend Chih-Hsien Chiang went from hitting .260/.312/.420 as a 22-year-old in Portland in 2010 to hitting .340/.402/.648 as a 23-year-old in Portland in 2011 (in 358 PAs!). He then turned back into a pumpkin, never surpassing a .720 OPS in any subsequent year. Now, I'm not saying that Coyle is going to turn into Chiang, I'm just saying that flukey things happen in small samples. For instance, given Coyle's strikeout rate, I wouldn't expect him to hit .300 (or even .280) in any full season in the majors (absent extreme improvement in his contact rate, that is). I would focus less on the unsustainably high batting average that he's put up this year, and focus more on the improvements he's made in his strikeout rate (down to 22.5%, compared to 29% last year in Salem) and whether he can stay healthy the rest of the year. Based on his current peripherals, if his BABIP was a more reasonable .330 or so (still higher than league-average, to account for his potential above-average hardness of contact), he'd be hitting something like .260/.340/.490, which is still excellent, especially for a middle infielder. Yea but that's a very different situation. Chiang repeated a level, and Coyle is 22 now, and only had 225 PAs in Salem. I get the small sample size argument, and the BABIP one too, but at some point, it has to be conceded that he's probably better than we thought. Or maybe just than I thought, but I definitely think that people thinking of him as a utility infielder are short selling him, which was my main point from the beginning. I highly doubt he maintains a .444 BABIP for much longer, but I also don't know that it falls 25% when there are some other encouraging peripherals to go with it. I also don't want to get ahead of myself and predict an MLB stat line for him, but I would like to point out that Napoli hit .330 a couple years ago with Texas. Obviously that was something of a fluke, and I'm not saying that Coyle is going to be some shorter version of Nap, but I would say that it's perfectly possible that Coyle could get over .280 in the majors. Basically, my main point is that the numbers, and the reports as well to a point, suggest at this stage that as a prospect, he projects to be substantially better than a utility guy. That doesn't mean I think he's going to hit .350/.420/.590 at the big league level, or even necessarily for a full season of AA, but the longer he does it, the more he looks like a legit quality starter for a big league team, especially if he sticks at 2B
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2014 12:41:35 GMT -5
IAdmittedly, the average doesn't fit with his track record, but going from .250ish in high A to .360ish in AA can't all be flukish BABIP luck, and he's 22, so it's not like we can't/shouldn't expect development. Our old friend Chih-Hsien Chiang went from hitting .260/.312/.420 as a 22-year-old in Portland in 2010 to hitting .340/.402/.648 as a 23-year-old in Portland in 2011 (in 358 PAs!). He then turned back into a pumpkin, never surpassing a .720 OPS in any subsequent year. Given that I was pointing to the possibility of a Chiang breakout two years before it happened (and loudly labeling him a sleeper after the second such year*), I think that breakout was more real than you might think. I wonder whether the Mariners, soon after they got him, had him change something they felt was too unorthodox to work, when in reality he was just in an ordinary slump. Once a hitter's head is messed with that way, some are never able to get back to where they were. *In 2009, he was hitting .226 / .284 / .340 on July 26, then hit .356 / .417 / .598 in his last 96 PA, which got my attention. The next year he had monthly OPS splits of 398, 598, 725, 877, and 933, and I proclaimed him ready to bust out.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 27, 2014 12:55:25 GMT -5
Our old friend Chih-Hsien Chiang went from hitting .260/.312/.420 as a 22-year-old in Portland in 2010 to hitting .340/.402/.648 as a 23-year-old in Portland in 2011 (in 358 PAs!). He then turned back into a pumpkin, never surpassing a .720 OPS in any subsequent year. Given that I was pointing to the possibility of a Chiang breakout two years before it happened (and loudly labeling him a sleeper after the second such year*), I think that breakout was more real than you might think. I wonder whether the Mariners, soon after they got him, had him change something they felt was too unorthodox to work, when in reality he was just in an ordinary slump. Once a hitter's head is messed with that way, some are never able to get back to where they were.*In 2009, he was hitting .226 / .284 / .340 on July 26, then hit .356 / .417 / .598 in his last 96 PA, which got my attention. The next year he had monthly OPS splits of 398, 598, 725, 877, and 933, and I proclaimed him ready to bust out. It's very impressive that when you're completely wrong you are able to come with a completely fictitious scenario that suggest that you were actually right. Plus a fictitious claim, both inverifiable and unfalsifiable, that "Once a hitter's head is messed with that way, some are never able to get back to where they were."
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 14:55:06 GMT -5
Not every hot streak is a breakout. Sometimes you just get ten heads on a row. Not saying Coyle is one way or the other, but that's always something to keep in mind, I think.
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