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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 18, 2014 17:14:42 GMT -5
I'm on the fence about this. Napoli is obviously a better defender, but 2011-2013 Craig was a better hitter than Napoli. Craig is riskier, Napoli is older. Both look like total bros and both came aboard with health concerns.
Trade neither unless you're getting a clear (and not exactly necessary) upgrade on the rotation. Have them and Nava rotating in the line-up and being awesome together.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 18, 2014 17:17:39 GMT -5
Not selling Napoli short as much as recognizing that he's only signed for 1 more year. I get the batted ball stats but if you can get 3 years of Craig at a pre-injury average that's a pretty good ballplayer; not saying he is better, but even if you had Napoli for 3 more years, he's older likely to decline, as well. He also has had an unnaturally high BABIP over 3 of the last 4 years. I do agree he is valuable, and if they decided to give him a 2 year extension and trade Craig I wouldn't strongly oppose, but post age 33 performance in general isn't kind.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 18, 2014 17:24:59 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: #RedSox in ”active“ trade talks on Allen Craig with at least 1 team, sources say. He’s said to be fully recovered from foot injury.” Didn't Craig say that last season when with the Sox? If he was not then but now is fully recovered and the injury(ies) will have no lingering effect, he is worth more than Nava or IMO, Victorino at least factoring in salaries. Moreover, I strongly suspect that Victorino will not accept being a 4th outfielder. We aren't going to bench Hanley, Castillo and, I hope, Betts. So I could see Victorino also on the move replaced by a low cost defensive bench guy. No doubt if Craig is healthy that he's a better offensive player vs Nava. My own thoughts ar that Nava will cost less over the next 3y and his value as a 4th OF will be negligible in that regard vs Craig, plus his defense may be a tad better also, at least in the corner OF positions. Cutting costs, even small ones might be something the team is looking at if/when they begin looking at a front end SP, even 6m, vs Nava's possible 1-1.5m cap hit for 2015 is a huge difference. Now Boston will just have to see how much of that they can wiggle out of certainly in any deal. Victorino, at his age hopefully realizes being a backup was bound to come, especially coming back from missing nearly an entire season. I'd hope he considers hanging around in Boston after 2015 as a reserve OF on a heavily reduced salary of course.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 18, 2014 17:25:31 GMT -5
2011-2013 Craig was a better hitter than Napoli. Napoli over that span: 140 wRC+ Craig over that span: 139 wRC+ Wow, you got to cherry-pick your endpoints and you still couldn't show that Craig is a better hitter than Napoli. Maybe that should tell you something...
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 18, 2014 17:39:05 GMT -5
2011-2013 Craig was a better hitter than Napoli. Napoli over that span: 140 wRC+ Craig over that span: 139 wRC+ Wow, you got to cherry-pick your endpoints and you still couldn't show that Craig is a better hitter than Napoli. Maybe that should tell you something... Okay, maybe not better, but equal in numbers (unless you think a single point of wRC+ makes a gigantic difference). And Napoli played 2 of those years at the launchpad that is Arlington, and yes I'm aware wRC+ accounts for that but it is worth singling out. And I'm not cherry-picking, I counted Craig's 3 full years in the majors excluding last year because that was the point of it all along ("if Craig is healthy and 2014 was a fluke"). Oh, and I love riddles, what should it tell me? That someone's going to overreact on a point I made?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 18, 2014 17:39:53 GMT -5
Including the buyout, there's $26.5 million still owed to Craig - roughly $9 million per year. If he's finally healthy, he's definitely worth that. But, I have a feeling we're going to have to eat approximately $10 million here - an ironic number given that Lackey is being underpaid about that much this year. From that perspective, the deal with St. Louis actually cost us more in the area of $20 million. Not one of Cherrington's brighter turns and one more than likely initiated out of concern that Lackey wouldn't honor his contract. Along with the Lester fiasco, a second example of Ben being out of touch with one of his players. I agree on craig and the lackey trade but not on Lester.... I think lester may have always been a big money guy he just didn't want to appear that way. Trading him was a great decision in my eyes.
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Post by jdb on Dec 18, 2014 18:40:53 GMT -5
I really think our best move is to hold onto Craig and Vic and let them show up healthy in spring training. We may regret trading Craig and his contract isn't a back breaker for a big market.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 18, 2014 18:56:40 GMT -5
I really think our best move is to hold onto Craig and Vic and let them show up healthy in spring training. We may regret trading Craig and his contract isn't a back breaker for a big market. I don't know. I'm in the more pessimistic camp. Lets keep Victorino for sure....there should be plenty of playing time available for him in addition to Ramirez, Betts, and Castillo. If Craig has any trade value left at all, I say lets capitalize now. If he has another year that even slightly resembles this past year (which I think the odds would favor, especially with sporadic playing time), then he'll have negative trade value next offseason.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 18, 2014 19:17:54 GMT -5
Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 16s16 seconds ago Jon Lester on @weei Hot Stove Show now.
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Post by suttree on Dec 18, 2014 19:31:17 GMT -5
If Vic is healthy he should play every day. Castillo, Hanley and Mookie have less than half a season of combined MLB experience in the outfield.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 18, 2014 19:36:53 GMT -5
“@matthuegelsp: Lester just said ”probably yes“ he would have taken 5/$120 in spring training (on @weei).”
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Post by suttree on Dec 18, 2014 19:41:00 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 18, 2014 19:52:32 GMT -5
Would Lester have been worth 5/$120 at spring training last year? It's one thing to say that now, given the season he just had, but Spring Training was before the season (which was clearly the best of his career), so would we have offered Lester 5/$120 based on his career up to that point?
If Lester had a career average season this year, would he have gotten the contract he received? Would Lester have still had the best season of his career if he signed a 5-6 year deal instead of playing in a contract season? I guess I'd say that I have a tough time blaming the front office for not offering Lester 5/$120 during Spring Training. It'd be nice to know that he'd have the season he had before it happens and sign him when he was cheaper.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 18, 2014 19:52:41 GMT -5
I disagree. At the time that would've been an overpay.
There are also a lot of people that seem to be taking lester for his word, which I don't really.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 18, 2014 20:17:11 GMT -5
There are also a lot of people that seem to be taking lester for his word, which I don't really. Honestly, how else is he going to answer that question?
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Post by jclmontana on Dec 18, 2014 20:43:16 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. Of course you are right. But, you have to understand that, from an organizational standpoint, it is very important to discredit a former employee who left on their own terms. Otherwise, those outside the organization might begin to understand just how screwed up things are at Widgets, Inc. So, in this case, management cranks up the propaganda machine to disseminate the argument that "A fair offer was made to Mr. X and his failure to accept it proves he wasn't a true Widget man." This isn't an entirely original argument since it's essentially an offshoot of the Salem Witch Hunt practice of throwing you in a lake with a big rock strapped to your torso and proclaiming that "His failure to drown will prove his warlock ways." Of course, whether you work at Widgets, Inc. or elsewhere, none of this should be taken too personally. Call it human nature - even though, ironically enough, those who behave this way are somewhat less than human. What the heck are you talking about? BOSTON -- Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino expressed his disappointment Saturday about the team's failed pursuit of free-agent starting pitcher Jon Lester. "We didn't succeed, so I don't give us a very good grade," Lucchino said Saturday at the team's annual Christmas at Fenway event. "We were trying sincerely to get him signed. We wanted him to come back here. "We were absolutely hopeful that Jon, once he got a sense of what the market would be, would be more inclined to sign with us. As it turned out, that was erroneous." In the process of signing with the Chicago Cubs for six years and $155 million earlier this week, Lester turned down Boston's six-year, $135 million offer to return to the Red Sox, the team he spent his first nine years in the majors with. The Red Sox traded Lester to the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline last season. Lucchino expressed his gratitude toward Lester for what he was able to accomplish in Boston. "I have some regrets here and there as to how it all went down, but right now I'm trying to focus on the future and express a sense of gratitude to Jon Lester for all he did for us, for the horse that he was for us for so many years, the successful pitcher and person that he was," Lucchino said. "I wish him luck, and I'm glad it's in the other league and not in our league. That's cold comfort but some comfort." espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 18, 2014 20:53:06 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. He's gone, let's bury it, yet the New England papers will probably continue to pry/dig and harp on anything regarding that 4/70m offer until the 2015 season is over. It was a mistake, the exact same thing people do every single day, some bigger than others.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Dec 18, 2014 21:06:40 GMT -5
Including the buyout, there's $26.5 million still owed to Craig - roughly $9 million per year. If he's finally healthy, he's definitely worth that. But, I have a feeling we're going to have to eat approximately $10 million here - an ironic number given that Lackey is being underpaid about that much this year. From that perspective, the deal with St. Louis actually cost us more in the area of $20 million. Not one of Cherrington's brighter turns and one more than likely initiated out of concern that Lackey wouldn't honor his contract. Along with the Lester fiasco, a second example of Ben being out of touch with one of his players. Although he has yet to prove me right, I continue to believe that trade with STL was all about J Kelly. The deal was BC trading them Lackey and eating the Craig contract, for Kelly. If Kelly fails, BC failed. We'll see.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Dec 18, 2014 21:09:25 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. Of course you are right. But, you have to understand that, from an organizational standpoint, it is very important to discredit a former employee who left on their own terms. Otherwise, those outside the organization might begin to understand just how screwed up things are at Widgets, Inc. So, in this case, management cranks up the propaganda machine to disseminate the argument that "A fair offer was made to Mr. X and his failure to accept it proves he wasn't a true Widget man." This isn't an entirely original argument since it's essentially an offshoot of the Salem Witch Hunt practice of throwing you in a lake with a big rock strapped to your torso and proclaiming that "His failure to drown will prove his warlock ways." Of course, whether you work at Widgets, Inc. or elsewhere, none of this should be taken too personally. Call it human nature - even though, ironically enough, those who behave this way are somewhat less than human. But this sort of thing hasn't been happening since Theo left, has it?
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Post by larrycook on Dec 18, 2014 21:11:43 GMT -5
I really think our best move is to hold onto Craig and Vic and let them show up healthy in spring training. We may regret trading Craig and his contract isn't a back breaker for a big market. I agree. We are one blown victorino hammy from needing Craig. The good Craig, not the one we saw last fall. That guy was worthless.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Dec 18, 2014 21:33:16 GMT -5
I really think our best move is to hold onto Craig and Vic and let them show up healthy in spring training. We may regret trading Craig and his contract isn't a back breaker for a big market. I agree. We are one blown victorino hammy from needing Craig. The good Craig, not the one we saw last fall. That guy was worthless. How so? Nava and JBJ are way ahead of Craig. Holt too. We may be selling low, but Craig has no place on this team. If he turns it around in ST, he's then a sell higher candidate.
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Post by Sammy on Dec 18, 2014 21:56:09 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. Of course you are right. But, you have to understand that, from an organizational standpoint, it is very important to discredit a former employee who left on their own terms. Otherwise, those outside the organization might begin to understand just how screwed up things are at Widgets, Inc. So, in this case, management cranks up the propaganda machine to disseminate the argument that "A fair offer was made to Mr. X and his failure to accept it proves he wasn't a true Widget man." This isn't an entirely original argument since it's essentially an offshoot of the Salem Witch Hunt practice of throwing you in a lake with a big rock strapped to your torso and proclaiming that "His failure to drown will prove his warlock ways." Of course, whether you work at Widgets, Inc. or elsewhere, none of this should be taken too personally. Call it human nature - even though, ironically enough, those who behave this way are somewhat less than human. Both sides had to put a lot of fluff out there for the sake of the casual fan. FO had to make it seem like they did everything they could to sign him, despite the decade long trend of letting the majority of our own big ticket FAs walk unless they sign for a significant discount. Didn't we see this same dog and pony show, to varying degrees, with Pedro and Ellsbury? And back to ST, does anyone believe the FO line of Lester completely shutting down dialogue? As if, if management had made a push comparable to what they did (or pretended to do) for the past few weeks, and begged him to sit down, and said, alright, Jonny, what will it really take to get this done and make sure you retire with a "B" on your cap ... that they couldn't have worked something out? Was Lucchino making call after unreturned phone call to Lester's agents, like Jim Carrey in the Cable Guy? Lester, by making it seem like he would do everything he could to stay in Boston, helps the bottom line by keeping the Sox in the picture. It also doesn't hurt to let other prospective suitors know that if they want a ticket to the dance they're going to have to outbid the big market Sox by at least $20MM. And back to ST for team Lester too, the premise of shutting down negotiations because of a perceived insult from the FO was ludicrous. Was Lester offering a hometown discount because of the his teammates, fans, legacy, and comfort level in Boston, or was it because he thought he was so cozy with the FO that when the $70MM insult shattered his illusion of being BFFs with John Henry, he could no longer bear to stay in Boston? There's just too much heartache!? It is what it is. Sox management is in the business of avoiding gambles as much as possible. Jon Lester gambled on himself and won. I don't begrudge him, but in most cases, including this one, it is primarily business for both sides. And that's generally okay
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 18, 2014 22:08:26 GMT -5
I agree. We are one blown victorino hammy from needing Craig. The good Craig, not the one we saw last fall. That guy was worthless. How so? Nava and JBJ are way ahead of Craig. Holt too. We may be selling low, but Craig has no place on this team. If he turns it around in ST, he's then a sell higher candidate. ' lol talk about clueless.
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2014 22:36:11 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. Of course you are right. But, you have to understand that, from an organizational standpoint, it is very important to discredit a former employee who left on their own terms. Otherwise, those outside the organization might begin to understand just how screwed up things are at Widgets, Inc. So, in this case, management cranks up the propaganda machine to disseminate the argument that "A fair offer was made to Mr. X and his failure to accept it proves he wasn't a true Widget man." This isn't an entirely original argument since it's essentially an offshoot of the Salem Witch Hunt practice of throwing you in a lake with a big rock strapped to your torso and proclaiming that "His failure to drown will prove his warlock ways." Of course, whether you work at Widgets, Inc. or elsewhere, none of this should be taken too personally. Call it human nature - even though, ironically enough, those who behave this way are somewhat less than human. LOL
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Post by bsout2 on Dec 18, 2014 23:09:22 GMT -5
Question?
Am I the only one here who is starting to get sick of Lester talking?
He took the best offer and that is fine, it is the same thing that 95% of us would have done in the same situation. But Lester keeps going on and on about a bunch of stuff that really doesn't matter.
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