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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by dcsoxfan on Dec 18, 2014 23:11:59 GMT -5
But this sort of thing hasn't been happening since Theo left, has it? As applied to the Red Sox, I personally think this sort of thing emanates from Lucchino. He is our Dick Cheney. I haven't the slightest idea; I was joking. But one thing always did bother me about the evil Larry meme. If Lucchino really is the master leaker in the Red Sox FO, where do all the evil Larry rumors come from?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 18, 2014 23:20:27 GMT -5
Question? Am I the only one here who is starting to get sick of Lester talking? He took the best offer and that is fine, it is the same thing that 95% of us would have done in the same situation. But Lester keeps going on and on about a bunch of stuff that really doesn't matter. No. Did you actually listen to the interview? He came off as very thoughtful and there was no bitterness at all. This is the same thing that went on with Crawford, Gonzalez, and every other player who has left Boston. God, even Pedro went through it, as crazy as it seems now. People keep asking Player X stuff about leaving Boston, Player X sometimes answers, his answer gets the soundbite treatment, and people overreact to said sound bite.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 18, 2014 23:34:32 GMT -5
Lester wasn't Pedro guys, this is getting ridiculous among the media and fans. We probably avoided an awful contract.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Dec 18, 2014 23:52:02 GMT -5
He was yesterday
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Dec 18, 2014 23:58:40 GMT -5
One thing I think gets overlooked a bit in the Craig vs. Shanf debate is the fact we don't know how Castillo will perform in 2015. To some extent the same goes for Mookie though the risk there is a good deal lower. I'm not at all concerned about a log jam in CF/RF. there should be plenty of playing time for all three even if they all play up to expectations ... which seems a little optimistic. Sure we have Nava, JBJ and Holt but injuries are a fact of life. I don't think we want to walk into a predictable situation where one of those guys is our regular RFer for a few weeks.
I'm in no hurry to trade Craig but if we have to trade one of them I'd rather deal Craig as long as it isn't a fire sale.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 19, 2014 0:23:09 GMT -5
As applied to the Red Sox, I personally think this sort of thing emanates from Lucchino. He is our Dick Cheney. I haven't the slightest idea; I was joking. But one thing always did bother me about the evil Larry meme. If Lucchino really is the master leaker in the Red Sox FO, where do all the evil Larry rumors come from? A guess would be someone who is both clueless and isn't able to contain themselves.. Is there a Joe Biden clone within the Sox FO?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 19, 2014 0:25:46 GMT -5
I'm for trading someone in the OF, assuming Hanley is the left fielder and Castillo is pencilled into CF. I want Mookie playing somewhere and what if Victorino is healthy? He thinks he is. That's 4 OF already, then you have Nava and Craig as well not to mention JBJ, Holt...etc.
Probably at least one of these guys gets hurt before the end of spring training but if we get a decent offer for Craig we should take it. Go with defense and speed in the OF to complement Hanley's bat in LF. Nava and Victorino/Bradley is a real decent bench as far as I'm concerned and if Victorino has a good spring I have no problem at all moving that contract at 1/2 off. Right fielders needing epidurals and such to stay on the field is not a good scenario for me ( as in JD Drew and probably Victorion before long ). I don't know how anyone plays mlb baseball well after some of the back injuries these guys have. It seems like Victorino taps the wall and he's down for a month now.
We really shouldn't count on either Victorino or Craig. They are the Redsox dammit!
Go with Hanley, Castillo, Betts, Nava, Holt. The only question is can they even get 1/2 value for either Craig or Victorino? I would think Craig yes. Wait on Spring Training and hope like heck Victorino reestablishes some value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2014 2:03:08 GMT -5
Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 6h6 hours ago Guys/gals, I like Jon Lester as much as you do but there's no way the Red Sox (or any team?) go from 4/$70 to 5/$120 prior to his '14 season . . . . . . Regarding:
MiLB.com ?@milb 6h6 hours ago The #WhiteSox have signed catcher George Kottaras to a Minor League deal with a Major League camp invitation: atmlb.com/1wR0p89
I'm somewhat surprised the Sox didn't pursue Kottaras on the same basis. If the season started today, Butler would be our backup catcher which I'm fine with given the rest of our lineup. I'd give Butler and Kottaras about equal value with Butler having the better glove and Kottaras the better bat. My reasoning though is that Kottaras wouldn't need to be on the 40 man unless he made the team and, he bats left handed.
If we end up signing Ross or other, we'll need to find 40 man room. If I counted right, we're at 40 now with Ross, Badenhop & Breslow free agents.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 19, 2014 4:11:26 GMT -5
Dan Butler might be out if we add someone to 40 mand roster.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2014 4:29:19 GMT -5
Dan Butler might be out if we add someone to 40 mand roster. Lavarnway is gone, no way Butler gets cut right now, Swihart isn't ready and even when he is ready we'll need a taxi catcher at Pawtucket. We're down to three catchers from 6 if you include Blair & Ross who are also gone. Spring and Brenly aren't the answer here. ML ready taxi catchers with options aren't all that plentiful and Butler has an option.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2014 8:53:47 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. He can say whatever the hell he wants now. It doesn't make it true. I'm so sick of his insistence on making every single person believe that he wasn't greedy at all in signing the biggest contract and that he's such a victim of Boston management. Cry me a river.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 19, 2014 10:22:44 GMT -5
I'm sure he wouldn't talk about it if people weren't so interested in it. There's really no way to win this game because people are so irrational about it, but at least he's treating people with respect.
Personally, I think Jon Lester did a better job than anyone in laying out his thinking and staying above pettiness when it came to his contract. His basic point was that this is a business, and it's also his life, and he'd weigh all factors - INCLUDING MONEY - in making his decision. He ended up taking less with the Cubs because he liked the situation better than the Giants, but he didn't go with the Red Sox because the difference in money was just too great. Totally understandable decision and pretty much how I would handle it too (except I would've chosen SF over CHI). He's not mad at the Red Sox, they're not mad at him, everyone hug and be friends, yadda, yadda.
But, I'm done with him ... I mean that in the most positive way; he can just move on. Good for him in getting a great contract, I hope he does really well next year and gets beat by the Red Sox in the World Series soon.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 19, 2014 10:33:31 GMT -5
To me Lester never countered offer. I know there was some stuff said like he would of taken the same deal Homer Bailey signed for. But I never in any article heard a counter offer from Lester's camp. If they were sincere in staying in Boston. They could of made it work. I don't trust Larry Lucchino but in that case I feel the FO was right in questioning Lester in that regard. By the way I think the initial offer was low. 4/70. But never once did they come back from that, maybe he was pissed and felt disrespected.
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Post by Sammy on Dec 19, 2014 10:55:10 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. He can say whatever the hell he wants now. It doesn't make it true. I'm so sick of his insistence on making every single person believe that he wasn't greedy at all in signing the biggest contract and that he's such a victim of Boston management. Cry me a river. Yeah it's getting kind of weird now. Jon, we get it, it's not us, it's you...you had about 20 million reasons to move on. We don't blame you. Heck, we almost traded you in a package for Johann Santana several years ago, so let's not get all sentimental on WEEI now. We will always have 2007 and 2013.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2014 11:03:31 GMT -5
So Lester confirms what I said all along. It feels nice to be right, but would be nicer if they just made that offer in the first place. I wonder if you would have been right had he accepted. Maybe he reverted back to 2012 - June 2013 Lester in your alternate world.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 19, 2014 11:48:00 GMT -5
This Lester stuff is boring. Let's move on.
The Sox have filled the backup catcher position, so long David Ross.
They added an arm to the BP, but still need another LHP (will they re-sign Breslow?).
The projected 2015 lineup here shows a vacant spot at the top of the starting rotation, and Kelly as a RP. While I don't think is the team's plan right now, it's not a bad idea. However, who is going into that top spot? My guess is Shields, but I'd rather have Hamels, or Cueto. Things have been very quiet on those fronts since the meetings. I think the best SP free agents, other than Shields, are taken now, aren't they?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2014 11:55:14 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 36s36 seconds ago Manhattan, NY david ross is signing with padres
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2014 11:55:27 GMT -5
This Lester stuff is boring. Let's move on. The Sox have filled the backup catcher position, so long David Ross. They added an arm to the BP, but still need another LHP (will they re-sign Breslow?). The projected 2015 lineup here shows a vacant spot at the top of the starting rotation, and Kelly as a RP. While I don't think is the team's plan right now, it's not a bad idea. However, who is going into that top spot? My guess is Shields, but I'd rather have Hamels, or Cueto. Things have been very quiet on those fronts since the meetings. I think the best SP free agents, other than Shields, are taken now, aren't they? Hell no on Breslow. There are at least 8 RH bullpen pitchers that I'd rather be in against LH batters than Breslow. I would not be surprised if we're set for the rotation at this point. I bet Shields and Scherzer go to beyond ridiculous contracts and the trade price for Hamels has to get realistic before bothering to answer calls from Amaro. Maybe wait and see what they have in Buchholz and Masterson and they might not need one. Or maybe more will come on the market.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 19, 2014 11:56:43 GMT -5
Anyone who is sick of the talk about Jon Lester is free to, y'know, not.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 19, 2014 11:58:24 GMT -5
I agree about Lester , I m over it but I hate the fact that all of the reporters are ganging up on the Sox Front Office. I.E. Shawnessey. = A-hole.
Also I'm all set with Breslow and Ross.
I believe most bullpen guys have a shelf life very rare do they stay consistent. I like to see Britton get a shot and if not there always the deadline. Who knows someone might get hot in AAA and deserve a promotion.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 19, 2014 13:55:15 GMT -5
Too many people pay attention to talk radio with the always negative Felger and Tony "the sky is falling" Mazzarotti and the idiots who call in.
I've got MLB Radio on my XM and get a lot if valid credible information from that source. And the few callers they have are screened, so that mostly they have something intelligent to add to the discussion.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 19, 2014 16:25:33 GMT -5
I took the Steamer projections from Fangraphs for the Red Sox and compared them to the actual 2014 stats. I did some averaging where the exact data is not provided. Steamer has not done a projection for Castillo so no stats for him are included. I also did not include Craig since it seems fairly obvious he won't be on the team next season. The 13 players included are: Vazquez, Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Ortiz, Nava and Bradley.
Category 2014 Steamer 2015
Homeruns 123 144 Runs 634 707 BAPIP .297 .306 Bat Ave .244 .267 OBP .316 .340 Slug Pct .369 .409 wOBA .305 .331 wRC+ 90 109 WAR 17.4 29.5 (I can't recall which WAR steamer is, but I presume it is fWAR.
Assuming that Castillo has a moderately good season, and assuming that Steamer is generally in the ball park with their projections, it appears the Sox offense will be considerably better and probably will score close to 200 runs more than it did in 2014. If that happens, and the pitching is decent, the Sox will have a very good season, maybe high 80s in wins. And it could be better if a top pitcher is added. I think the projections for Betts, Napoli and Bogaerts are low, but high for Victorino and Vazquez. I also think that Ramirez will hit more than the 20 HRs in the Steamer projection (which was done while he still was a Dodger).
I tried comparing the pitching, but I don't think the pitching projections work now because of all the player moves.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2014 16:43:11 GMT -5
I really hope they don't trade Craig just to clear a roster space or for a middle reliever. I think he could have a great bounce back season if he can be healthy and I have little faith in Ortiz being healthy or productive yet again. It's getting to the point of being very unrealistic at his age and he had a noticeable drop last season which I know I shouldn't read too much into but having Craig is a nice luxury. One which the team can afford.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2014 16:44:21 GMT -5
How gray would it be if they only went with a 6 man bullpen and actually carried 5 bench players:
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Dec 19, 2014 17:10:06 GMT -5
I took the Steamer projections from Fangraphs for the Red Sox and compared them to the actual 2014 stats. I did some averaging where the exact data is not provided. Steamer has not done a projection for Castillo so no stats for him are included. I also did not include Craig since it seems fairly obvious he won't be on the team next season. The 13 players included are: Vazquez, Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Ortiz, Nava and Bradley. Category 2014 Steamer 2015 Homeruns 123 144 Runs 634 707 BAPIP .297 .306 Bat Ave .244 .267 OBP .316 .340 Slug Pct .369 .409 wOBA .305 .331 wRC+ 90 109 WAR 17.4 29.5 (I can't recall which WAR steamer is, but I presume it is fWAR. Assuming that Castillo has a moderately good season, and assuming that Steamer is generally in the ball park with their projections, it appears the Sox offense will be considerably better and probably will score close to 200 runs more than it did in 2014. If that happens, and the pitching is decent, the Sox will have a very good season, maybe high 80s in wins. And it could be better if a top pitcher is added. I think the projections for Betts, Napoli and Bogaerts are low, but high for Victorino and Vazquez. I also think that Ramirez will hit more than the 20 HRs in the Steamer projection (which was done while he still was a Dodger). I tried comparing the pitching, but I don't think the pitching projections work now because of all the player moves. Confused by the home run projection vs 2014. There should be a bigger discrepancy. Betts, Castillo, and Victorino combined for less than a full season of games. Napoli and Ramirez missed time. Ortiz had an off year by his standards and Sandoval did as well. Unimportant but it surprised me
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