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Post by Guidas on Feb 20, 2015 15:13:50 GMT -5
Here's a quote from the article: The problem with that analysis is obvious. GB pitchers allow fewer flyballs, so even if they ones the do allow are a little more likely to leave the park, there may very well be less of them over all. Here's a comparison for two ex-Tigers that should drive the point home. These are career numbers for Porcello (4563 PAs) and Scherzer (5138 PAs):
| Porcello | Scherzer | Home Runs/PA
| 2.4% | 2.6% | XBH/PA | 7.4% | 7.7% | XBH/H | 30% | 35% |
Now, that last number is itself, a little misleading, since Porcello allows 10 H/9 and Scherzer only 8.5 H/9. Nonetheless the message is clear. There are fewer balls in the air so, overall, fewer home runs and fewer extra base hits. The biggest difference comes from the DP rates:
| Porcello | Scherzer | DP Rate
| 23% | 9% |
Put a good defense behind Porcello and the H/9 probably go down, with the DP% maybe even increasing. I think the Sox will take that bet.It includes a bet that Xander demonstrably improve his defense at SS from last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 15:21:32 GMT -5
Doesn't have to include that bet. Castellanos and Cabrera are god-awful defensively. Bogaerts cannot be worse than both of them together.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2015 21:10:14 GMT -5
Doesn't have to include that bet. Castellanos and Cabrera are god-awful defensively. Bogaerts cannot be worse than both of them together. We're likely to have to wait a little longer on that since Ortiz is likely to be the first baseman for his first start (at Philadelphia) .
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