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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 18, 2015 16:42:50 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 16:43:52 GMT -5
It's a fair point, but two+ months of improved stuff carries a lot more weight than two weeks of improved stuff, and Rodriguez circa January 2015 is still a much better prospect than Rodriguez circa July 2014. To a trained scout watching a prospect that was projected to be good, had an injury then was displaying tools indicative of the previous stature, no. To an untrained eye, a stats guy or a prospect follower, yes. I wonder how the Sox make their decisions. It's not like the Orioles didn't know and it's not like as if the Tigers offer was vastly inferior. Kiley McDaniel himself disagrees. From his recent chat:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 18, 2015 18:38:32 GMT -5
Having watched Rodriquez throw after coming to Portland (disclaimer video/TV), I have to say I was quite impressed. The easy motion and the pitch mix were all very positive. I'd like to see more, of course. But it's easy to see why the Sox wanted the guy - over whatever package Detroit was offering. As for the Orioles, they were offered a shutdown left-hander for the stretch run, and the playoffs. There's no mystery at all why they were willing to trade Rodriguez, and it wasn't because they knew something the Sox didn't. They were informed that it was a competition and they'd have to deliver the goods. The Sox knew what to ask for, and they got it. Baltimore had to give up a real prospect for Miller. That sort of trade happens all the time.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 21:20:27 GMT -5
To a trained scout watching a prospect that was projected to be good, had an injury then was displaying tools indicative of the previous stature, no. To an untrained eye, a stats guy or a prospect follower, yes. I wonder how the Sox make their decisions. It's not like the Orioles didn't know and it's not like as if the Tigers offer was vastly inferior. Kiley McDaniel himself disagrees. From his recent chat: No Kiley himself doesn't disagree, you seem to be having a reading comprehension issue here. You are putting unrelated intent into his comment. He was commenting on the "control study in Boston" statement. Please note that he didn't point out before or after the velocity went up. You must not think much of the Sox or Oriloles scouting. Please read what Kiley meant, not what you want to hear, the improvement from when he was pitching like crap to when he was pitching good has nothing to do with hype or a conspiracy among analysts. I'm pretty sure Keith Law didn't mean it that way either.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Feb 18, 2015 21:35:05 GMT -5
No Kiley himself doesn't disagree, you seem to be having a reading comprehension issue here. You are putting unrelated intent into his comment. He was commenting on the "control study in Boston" statement. Please note that he didn't point out before or after the velocity went up. You must not think much of the Sox or Oriloles scouting. Please read what Kiley meant, not what you want to hear, the improvement from when he was pitching like crap to when he was pitching good has nothing to do with hype or a conspiracy among analysts. I'm pretty sure Keith Law didn't mean it that way either. Kiley has been high on Rodriguez.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 21:51:34 GMT -5
No Kiley himself doesn't disagree, you seem to be having a reading comprehension issue here. You are putting unrelated intent into his comment. He was commenting on the "control study in Boston" statement. Please note that he didn't point out before or after the velocity went up. You must not think much of the Sox or Oriloles scouting. Please read what Kiley meant, not what you want to hear, the improvement from when he was pitching like crap to when he was pitching good has nothing to do with hype or a conspiracy among analysts. I'm pretty sure Keith Law didn't mean it that way either. He literally says "Rodriguez got better after he was traded". I don't know that there's a way to misinterpret that sentence. Do you really think that Rodriguez was as highly regarded a prospect at the time he was traded as he is now?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 22:04:44 GMT -5
Interpret it in the general sense, you are trying to peg it to a specific time like it was some big mystery.
I think the Red Sox and Orioles knew exactly what was being traded. Just because you (and I) or whatever analyst didn't personally see him pitch just before the trade didn't realize this isn't the issue. I think neither the Sox nor the Orioles were at all surprised.
There were several comments at the time of the trade indicating that the Sox had offers and that they chose quality over quantity. There was also a Douquette statement on how the Orioles knew they were giving up a lot but that they felt Miller was the missing piece to their stretch run.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 22:11:18 GMT -5
I don't know why you think I'm trying to peg it to any specific time-- I'm not, I just mean it in the general sense. I posted that quote not for anything to do with a conspiracy or whatever but to show that Kiley agrees that Rodriguez has become a better prospect since the trade, which has been my point all along. I also don't mean to imply that he was a bad prospect at the time he was traded or anything. He was a good prospect then; he's just become a better once since. I just find it borderline ludicrous that you would disagree with the idea that he's a better prospect now than he was when he was traded. Maybe the Red Sox and Oriole front offices aren't shocked at the outcome, but I certainly think they both think more highly of Rodriguez now than they did at the time of the trade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 22:28:12 GMT -5
And I find the basis for your original statement: "Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today." to be way off base. That's the part I'm reacting to. I disagree.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Feb 18, 2015 22:43:27 GMT -5
Jmei the sentence that you quoted is Kiley mocking people with the "conspiracy theory" on Rodriguez. He recently said in a podcast that scouts who saw Rodrguez right before he was traded noted that his velocity was back. He wrote in his chat sloppily and should've had quotes around the sentence you pointed out.
Hope this helps you guys get on the same page.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 22:51:14 GMT -5
On a different topic, I find it interesting how far Austin Hedges stock has dropped. In Kiley's rankings, he's 130th with 8 catchers ahead of him. Swihart is top at 9th, Plaweiki now next at 40th. A few short months ago, Amaro would have been considered foolish for turning down Hamels for Hedges straight up.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2015 22:51:24 GMT -5
And I find the basis for your original statement: "Finally, remember that the Rodriguez that the Orioles traded in July is not the same Rodriguez that we know and love today." to be way off base. That's the part I'm reacting to. I disagree. Do you think the Orioles and the Red Sox both expected that Rodriguez would put up a 0.96 ERA/2.42 FIP after he got traded? Even if some of his velo came back in the couple starts before he got traded, his maintaining that velo for the 37 innings after he got traded likely surpassed expectations. That's the basis for my above statement. But now I'm repeating myself, and we can agree to disagree.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 23:13:52 GMT -5
Hindsight is a wonderful way to analyze trade day transactions. If he goes on to win a Cy Young or if he pursues a career at McDonald's, it doesn't change the trade time considerations.
The general topic is mid-season trade values and I think you seriously underestimate Rodriguez' trade day value. Just the declined Tigers offer alone (two mid rotation ceiling starters) should be a clear indication that the Sox expected more from Rodriguez than he showed the first half. I seriously doubt if they came to those conclusions based on reading stats pages or checking BA's prospect rankings.
I do want to point out that I was just as surprised as anyone iin the public sector on his success and personally, in spite of being a major Owens booster, I'd trade Owens before I'd trade Rodriguez.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2015 23:36:30 GMT -5
Somewhat related, some interesting (to me) background info.
When Rodriguez was traded to the Sox, he and the Portland pitching coach did a bullpen. What Rodriguez wanted to know was how to improve the slider. Portland's pitching coach was surprised because it registered 88 on the gun, extremely fast and he told Rodriguez to change nothing.
Fast forward to the rookie development camp video and the "who's stupid" banter between Swihart and Rodriguez. Here's the background on that exchange.
In the playoffs, Swihart was catching Rodriguez for the first time. He called for a slider which Rodriguez threw. Swihart thought that it was his fastball because of the speed. The next pitch he called for a fastball, Rodriguez complied. That was the pitch that hit Swihart in the thumb and put him out of the rest of the playoffs. Swihart was expecting another pitch that reacted like the slider he had just thrown.
Sorry for the digression but I found that interesting.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 18, 2015 23:54:33 GMT -5
I think there's a difference between potential and performance, especially in the minors. Both teams probably had a feeling for the former, but the Orioles probably took the performance into account also. The first take on this site was of a promising prospect who'd had a down year up to that point. But given the injury, and what appeared to be a return to form, it had to be a good bet for the Sox that there was something there. It's likely that neither team expected him to be quite that good that fast.
All that said, this was a guy who looked like a prospect before the injury - that's what the numbers said - and he lived up to it after he recovered. This was a very good gamble for the Sox, and probably one the Orioles will regret a bit if he continues on this trajectory. I think Boston did their scouting to pick up a very good player, one that Baltimore may not have valued as highly at the time.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2015 0:01:02 GMT -5
I think there's a difference between potential and performance, especially in the minors. Both teams probably had a feeling for the former, but the Orioles probably took the performance into account also. The first take on this site was of a promising prospect who'd had a down year up to that point. But given the injury, and what appeared to be a return to form, it had to be a good bet for the Sox that there was something there. It's likely that neither team expected him to be quite that good that fast. All that said, this was a guy who looked like a prospect before the injury - that's what the numbers said - and he lived up to it after he recovered. This was a very good gamble for the Sox, and probably one the Orioles will regret a bit if he continues on this trajectory. I think Boston did their scouting to pick up a very good player, one that Baltimore may not have valued as highly at the time. Young high ceiling starters is an Oriole strength. Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, Harvey. I'm sure that was part of the equation from Baltimore's perspective.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2015 0:11:58 GMT -5
Yeah, but they had to give up somebody if they wanted Miller, and Rodriguez was the somebody they were willing to let go in that trade. No knowing if that's who the Sox explicitly asked for, of course.
Small sample, but his WHIP with Portland was by far his best since leaving the Rookie Leagues. That will be a big deal if he keeps it up, and a real sign of his emergence for me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2015 0:47:42 GMT -5
Different team prospect philosophies are interesting. In this case, that had to be difficult for the Orioles who rarely trade prospects. The Tigers, on the other hand pretty much view prospects as trade chips. The two starters offered to the Sox were subsequently traded to Texas and The Rays.
Rodriguez has pretty much answered the question can he do it on a sustained basis. Now the only real question is if he can maintain on a year by year basis.
We actually made a killing this past year, overall at the trade deadline if you view it as projected WAR sold vs projected WAR received. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox be sellers this year if they have a decent lead in the weak AL East. We have Mujica, Masterson, Porcello, Victorino and Napoli all as one year rentals plus Buchholz who could be viewed that way because of the options and we have hypothetically decent (but grant not equal) replacements at Pawtucket or Boston for all. This could be the new market efficiency at a time when we are going to be shut out of IFA signings. The upcoming off season could become a time where we do 2 fer upgrades similar to Webster and RDLR for Miley.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2015 4:26:45 GMT -5
Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino sat down with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford to discuss his recovery from back surgery, telling Bradford that he feels 100 percent and is as motivated as he’s ever been heading into Spring Training. Victorino disagrees with the notion that there’s a “competition” between himself and Mookie Betts, saying that, rather, he views it as two athletes pushing each other to be better. “I’ve been a big advocate of Mookie since Day 1,” said Victorino. “I learned from Day 1 that he’s a kid that wants to learn. My first day in my rehab assignment in Pawtucket, 15 minutes before the game he’s asking me questions in the most respectful way. From Day 1 I’ve been a big fan of that kid.”www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/al-east-notes-farrell-victorino-delabar-rays-young.htmlAlso from the same MLBTraderumors blog: The Rays were excellent at unearthing quality relievers while under the leadership of now-Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney notes (Insider link). Friedman will face an immediate challenge in finding a replacement for outstanding closer Kenley Jansen, at least for the season’s early going. The market still contains some notable arms — free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, as well as trade candidate Jonathan Papelbon — but in some respects their availability only increases the stakes of getting the decision right. There are several possibilities for filling the closer role and the open pen slot, including a few recent acquisitions as well as younger arms (Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia) who got a taste of the bigs last year and have impressed the new front office.Mujica can close.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 19, 2015 17:28:39 GMT -5
From today's Keith Law chat:
Frank (FLA) Why does ATL want Jackie Bradley, Jr? And what would BOST get in return? Klaw (1:37 PM) Plus defensive CF with a good eye at the plate and doubles power. Absolutely has to stop trying to be a home-run hitter. Makes me nuts when I see him do this.
Corey (NYC) Continuing with Bradley Jr - he has the ability to be a good hitter, right ? The minors and his flash at spring training seems to show that. Was last year him getting messed up and not adjusting or the leap from the minors was bigger than he could handle ?
Klaw (1:43 PM) I think so. Some hitters just need more at bats to get up to their natural abilities - longer adjustment periods, if you prefer to think of it that way. The Red Sox couldn't continue to wait on him, and now he's blocked eight ways to Sunday. Atlanta can give him all year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2015 9:36:14 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 10:01:23 GMT -5
There's something I'd like to point out that he doesn't, and there are no stats that account for this. I agree that IFFB's are as good as strikeouts. But in a smaller park with less foul territory, you do not get as much benefit from being a fly ball pitcher with high IFFB rates as there are many IFFB that wind up out of play that may be outs in bigger parks. These are not counted and park factors don't adjust for them. So in a place like Boston, the advantage that a pitcher with a high IFFB rate is not as great as it would be in a place like Oakland. In other words, it's reasonable to believe that pitchers will have a lower IFFB% in Boston than in Oakland so this is one reason Boston should not be acquiring FB pitchers. So while GB pitchers may be overrated as a whole, they probably are not in Fenway. And that doesn't even mention the Green Monster. The other thing left out is the extra double plays a GB pitcher gets, which are even better than strikeouts and IFFB. Also, I don't know that there is enough data to analyze the creep downward of the strike zone from year to year.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 10:11:52 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 20, 2015 10:20:15 GMT -5
Here's a quote from the article: The problem with that analysis is obvious. GB pitchers allow fewer flyballs, so even if the ones they do allow are a little more likely to leave the park, there may very well be less of them over all. Here's a comparison for two ex-Tigers that should drive the point home. These are career numbers for Porcello (4563 PAs) and Scherzer (5138 PAs):
| Porcello | Scherzer | Home Runs/PA
| 2.4% | 2.6% | XBH/PA | 7.4% | 7.7% | XBH/H | 30% | 35% |
Now, that last number is itself, a little misleading, since Porcello allows 10 H/9 and Scherzer only 8.5 H/9. Nonetheless the message is clear. There are fewer balls in the air so, overall, fewer home runs and fewer extra base hits. The biggest difference comes from the DP rates:
| Porcello | Scherzer | DP Rate
| 23% | 9% |
Put a good defense behind Porcello and the H/9 probably go down, with the DP% maybe even increasing. I think the Sox will take that bet.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2015 14:17:28 GMT -5
I moved some Spring Training-centric posts to that thread. In general, let's try to move all general Red Sox discussion to that thread. Once the last lingering bits of discussion on this thread die down, it'll be locked.
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