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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 24, 2014 20:44:32 GMT -5
One of the top pitching talents thought to be available this offseason will instead remain in Japan, as the Hiroshima Carp have signed right-hander Kenta Maeda to a new contract, The Japan Times reports. The re-signing comes on the heels of last week’s news that the Carp told Maeda he wasn’t going to be posted this winter, as per Jim Allen of the Kyodo News (Twitter link). The 26-year-old Maeda is coming off his fifth consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA, having posted a 2.60 mark with 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 187 innings for the Carp. While he’s not thought to have the same ceiling as countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, most feel that Maeda can, at the very least, be a competent mid-rotation starter in Major League Baseball. He’s totaled 1303 1/3 innings in a seven-season career with the Carp, working to a 2.44 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. “I am thinking this [going to the majors] is close to becoming a reality. Hopefully I can go in the offseason next year,” Maeda said. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/kenta-maeda-re-signs-with-hiroshima-carp-will-not-be-posted.html#disqus_thread
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 25, 2014 0:06:23 GMT -5
It would be amazing if these guys fell back to us because no one was willing to pay those extravagate prices. Shields for 3 years and 60 million is fine. Hate to go anywhere close to 5 years for him. Shields 3 years at 18. Please come to Boston in the springtime. I might turn down Shields for free (assuming we had to pitch him rather than trade him, obviously). He's such a bad fit for the park that I'm not convinced he'd be one of our five best starters.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 25, 2014 12:26:16 GMT -5
It's must be eye-opening for Boras that everyone went crazy for Lester and we here not a peep for his guy or Shields for that matter. It would be amazing if these guys fell back to us because no one was willing to pay those extravagate prices. Shields for 3 years and 60 million is fine. Hate to go anywhere close to 5 years for him. It would be laughable if "Boras's guy" had to settle for a 5 year deal at best. Keep dreaming.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 25, 2014 12:29:51 GMT -5
Best fit is Hamels. Just need to find the right pieces changing hands.....
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 25, 2014 13:26:14 GMT -5
Hamels isnt the best fit in my eyes, not with the Phillies price tag. Better to see what happens and get someone at the trade deadline for the rental price.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 25, 2014 18:46:49 GMT -5
Hamels isnt the best fit in my eyes, not with the Phillies price tag. Better to see what happens and get someone at the trade deadline for the rental price. Somewhat my preference except I'd prefer to make the trade this coming spring after we know if everyone is healthy. Better for team chemistry and would come with a draft pick. A Hamels or equivalent would be my plan B Go with what we have my plan C Mad Max my emergency only plan D and Sheilds not a consideration.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 26, 2014 10:00:32 GMT -5
Shields 3 years at 18. Please come to Boston in the springtime. I might turn down Shields for free (assuming we had to pitch him rather than trade him, obviously). He's such a bad fit for the park that I'm not convinced he'd be one of our five best starters. Seconded. I have been holding back on most of my off season commentary in hopes this team will acquire a dominant starter either through a trade or free agency. Shields is a disaster waiting to happen. The milage on that arm, the fact that he will get four years or more and, in the specific case of the Sox, the park factors and fly ball proclivities Eric and others of us have mentioned make him a guy I just don't want on my team (love to see him in NY, BALT or TOR, though). I'd rather give 7 years to Scherzer (preferably with an opt out after three or four) than four or more years to Shields.
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Post by jdb on Dec 26, 2014 11:41:24 GMT -5
Agree with you Guidas. At this point of his career i don't think he'll be a #2 long or worth the money. IM not sure if we get into the Scherzer market and I'm starting to think if the price on Hamels doesn't drop our staff is set until the trade deadline. Wouldn't be bad bc by then JBJ and Cechinni could have a lot more value and we'd have a better read on our catching situation. I think Porcello could make a big jump.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 26, 2014 21:03:28 GMT -5
Just sayin'...
We have 4 right handed outfielders that are going to need AB's if healthy, HanRam, Mookie, Rusney & Victorino.
We have a left handed DH who's getting older and whose future contracts are significantly affected by Plate Appearances:
2016 Team Option: $10M 2017 Team Option: $10M Other Notes: options may become guaranteed based on plate appearances in previous season, with option value increasing to $11M for 425 PAs, $12M for 475 PAs, $13M for 500 PAs, $14M for 525 PAs, $15M for 575 PAs, or $16M (or value of qualifying offer) for 600 PAs
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 26, 2014 22:20:31 GMT -5
I might turn down Shields for free (assuming we had to pitch him rather than trade him, obviously). He's such a bad fit for the park that I'm not convinced he'd be one of our five best starters. Seconded. I have been holding back on most of my off season commentary in hopes this team will acquire a dominant starter either through a trade or free agency. Shields is a disaster waiting to happen. The milage on that arm, the fact that he will get four years or more and, in the specific case of the Sox, the park factors and fly ball proclivities Eric and others of us have mentioned make him a guy I just don't want on my team (love to see him in NY, BALT or TOR, though). I'd rather give 7 years to Scherzer (preferably with an opt out after three or four) than four or more years to Shields. As I have maintained from the beginning of time...Stay The Course...Stay The Course.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 26, 2014 22:38:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher Blake Swihart. Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally. This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies: www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 26, 2014 22:53:05 GMT -5
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher Blake Swihart. Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally. This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies: www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/Gammo is a lot more realistic than Jim Duquette
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 26, 2014 23:42:29 GMT -5
(check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old) Or, check a projection system that isn't terrible and doesn't assign him those ridiculous numbers.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 27, 2014 1:34:14 GMT -5
(check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old) Or, check a projection system that isn't terrible and doesn't assign him those ridiculous numbers. What have those Bill James stand-ins been smoking? Whatever it is, we need that seed-stock out here in Oregon as soon as we can get our hands on it! I know the kid is good, and I'm as excited about him as anyone. But those numbers seem a bit much. They'd make him one of the very best players in the game. I think that time will come, but maybe he can just be one part of a very good team for now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2014 2:15:44 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 27, 2014 9:12:27 GMT -5
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher Blake Swihart. Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally. This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies: www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/Javier Guerra? Take out the other two and see if "get Javier Guerra the way the Cubs got Addison Russell" makes any sense ... gotta love Gammons. In one paragraph he made Garin Cecchini into a "rising star" and elevated Javier Guerra to headliner status.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2014 10:02:58 GMT -5
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher Blake Swihart. Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally. This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies: www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/Javier Guerra? Take out the other two and see if "get Javier Guerra the way the Cubs got Addison Russell" makes any sense ... gotta love Gammons. In one paragraph he made Garin Cecchini into a "rising star" and elevated Javier Guerra to headliner status. I hear what you are saying but on the other hand Guerra is the fastest rising player in our system and has gotten a lot of scouting raves. He shouldn't be a headliner now but by year's end, I'd bet he has that status. Keep in mind Gammons was specifically referencing rebuilding for 2017. Considering the Lee, Heyward and Papelbon contracts and Utley's age, that actually makes sense. On the other hand Amaro.... For those of us that are three handed, the Phils top prospect, JP Crawford is a lower level SS.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 27, 2014 10:25:05 GMT -5
Javier Guerra? Take out the other two and see if "get Javier Guerra the way the Cubs got Addison Russell" makes any sense ... gotta love Gammons. In one paragraph he made Garin Cecchini into a "rising star" and elevated Javier Guerra to headliner status. I hear what you are saying but on the other hand Guerra is the fastest rising player in our system and has gotten a lot of scouting raves. He shouldn't be a headliner now but by year's end, I'd bet he has that status. Keep in mind Gammons was specifically referencing rebuilding for 2017. Considering the Lee, Heyward and Papelbon contracts and Utley's age, that actually makes sense. On the other hand Amaro.... Sure, maybe ... but this is classic Gammons. He loves to jump the gun on prospects, always has. I'm inclined to think that he does that more for Red Sox prospects than other teams', but I don't actually know that. The Legendary Toe Nash wasn't in the Sox system, after all. But, anyway, Guerra's getting some helium, but he's not even close to that status now. It's a "which one of these is not like the other" deal. Margot and Devers are 3/4 here on the SP.com rankings, and Guerra's somewhere in the teens. Personally, I'm not even sure I'd be happy about a Margot+[two of "Ranaudo's generation"] trade for Hamels; I've talked myself into thinking that Hamels at $120 million isn't all that great a value by itself, let alone the prospect cost.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 27, 2014 10:31:01 GMT -5
Owens, Cecchini and Margot or Devers should be enough for Hamels if Sox have to take on all the salary plus his option. If they had to throw in Guerra to make it happen I don't think it's a problem.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 27, 2014 10:31:46 GMT -5
Although Javier Guerra is really intriguing he is very risky and far away from big league. He is kind of all projection guy with big weakness in plate discipline.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 27, 2014 10:51:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher Blake Swihart. Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally. This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies: www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/Javier Guerra? Take out the other two and see if "get Javier Guerra the way the Cubs got Addison Russell" makes any sense ... gotta love Gammons. In one paragraph he made Garin Cecchini into a "rising star" and elevated Javier Guerra to headliner status. So you're saying PG is s sloppy writer? Revolutionary insight.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 27, 2014 10:53:44 GMT -5
Devers or Owens alone are too much for Hamels IMO.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 27, 2014 11:15:42 GMT -5
I think Hamels' excess value is about $30m. That would line up closely to the expected value of Owens and a little less than Swihart.
Given asset scarcity I think the fair deal is One of Owens or Rodriguez, one of Marrero or Cecchini, and one other piece from the 10 to 20 range.
If I'm the Sox I'm shooting for the first piece to be from the second tier of starters like Ranauso, but I don't think that happens.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2014 11:19:15 GMT -5
Or, check a projection system that isn't terrible and doesn't assign him those ridiculous numbers. What have those Bill James stand-ins been smoking? Whatever it is, we need that seed-stock out here in Oregon as soon as we can get our hands on it! I know the kid is good, and I'm as excited about him as anyone. But those numbers seem a bit much. They'd make him one of the very best players in the game. I think that time will come, but maybe he can just be one part of a very good team for now. I don't know how the James system works but it seems like if a player is young it just assumes they're going to be 25% better next year. It probably had Mike Trout hitting .450 and slugging 1.200 by now. It's really terrible but what's worse is how many writers who should know better report it as "Bill James projects Will Middlebrooks to hit 47 home runs next year!" as if he personally crafts these things. Steamer has Betts at .290/.358/.425, which is still a fantastic line and maybe a little optimistic, but it at least exists within the realm of possible outcomes. .400+ OBP, .500+ SLG? I have all the respect in the world for what Gammons has done over his career but if he's reporting those numbers in earnest maybe it's time to start enjoying a well-earned retirement.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 27, 2014 11:20:40 GMT -5
I don't like using excess vale numbers to determine trade value like Cameron does. But Margot + Cecchini + Ranaudo sounds fair to me
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