SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
|
Post by James Dunne on Jan 31, 2015 18:57:35 GMT -5
Victorino would have to hit like Mike trout in spring training to get someone to pick up all his contract. Teams are just not going to see him as a reliable option with all the back and hamstring issues, even if he looks healthy in ST. Victorino's contract isn't even bad.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 31, 2015 21:42:32 GMT -5
IF everyone is healthy look at the excesses we have for a spring trade or three.
Victorino or Craig with Victorino the most likely. Mujica or Varvaro with Mujica the most likely and Spruill at Pawtucket.
Now the added little bonus.
If we were to trade for a previously mentioned rotation upgrade like Cuetto, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Price, Iwakuma or Fister, that would likely bump Kelly to the pen and therefore make Workman or Wright or Escobar expendable.
I don't think anything major will happen before spring but if everyone is healthy I doubt if Ben is done adjusting the opening day roster. Even if we traded three for one plus fillers, we are still deep at Pawtucket, everyplace (except maybe catcher).
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jan 31, 2015 21:48:36 GMT -5
IF everyone is healthy look at the excesses we have for a spring trade or three. Victorino or Craig with Victorino the most likely. Mujica or Varvaro with Mujica the most likely and Spruill at Pawtucket. Now the added little bonus. If we were to trade for a previously mentioned rotation upgrade like Cuetto, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Price, Iwakuma or Fister, that would likely bump Kelly to the pen and therefore make Workman or Wright expendable. I don't think anything major will happen before spring but if everyone is healthy I doubt if Ben is done adjusting the opening day roster. Even if we traded three, we are still deep at Pawtucket, everyplace (except maybe catcher). Where we have one of the top prospects in baseball. Future looks good.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 31, 2015 22:04:31 GMT -5
IF everyone is healthy look at the excesses we have for a spring trade or three. Victorino or Craig with Victorino the most likely. Mujica or Varvaro with Mujica the most likely and Spruill at Pawtucket. Now the added little bonus. If we were to trade for a previously mentioned rotation upgrade like Cuetto, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Price, Iwakuma or Fister, that would likely bump Kelly to the pen and therefore make Workman or Wright expendable. I don't think anything major will happen before spring but if everyone is healthy I doubt if Ben is done adjusting the opening day roster. Even if we traded three, we are still deep at Pawtucket, everyplace (except maybe catcher). Where we have one of the top prospects in baseball. Future looks good. The most bizarre part to me is that we have an actual prospect at every position in Pawtucket except RF. This isn't a group of career minor leaguers and org guys.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2015 22:43:43 GMT -5
Guy you shouldn't sleep on: Jackie Bradley.
It's easy to forget he exists, considering the addition of Castillo and the emergence of Betts as well as the fact that he's lost prospect status and rookie eligibility, but Bradley absolutely still has a very good chance of being an above-average regular. The defense is as good as (if not better than) advertised, and considering his minor league track record, the bat is likely to at least rebound somewhat, and even a small rebound should make him into a starter-level player. Of the position players in Pawtucket, I think he has the second highest long-term MLB value, behind Swihart but ahead of Cecchini and Marrero.
Of course, considering the presence of Betts, Castillo, and Hanley, he's probably not going to be a long-term starter in Boston. But his lefty bat and elite defense would make him a very useful fourth outfielder, and he could also improve his value enough to become a valuable trade chip.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 31, 2015 23:00:35 GMT -5
Victorino would have to hit like Mike trout in spring training to get someone to pick up all his contract. Teams are just not going to see him as a reliable option with all the back and hamstring issues, even if he looks healthy in ST. Victorino's contract isn't even bad. If Victorino is anywhere near his 2013 production capacity his contract is a bargain. I don't see where his situation is all that different from Ogando's though. And Ogando got roughly $3 mil after incentives if I remember correctly. Guys can do well in spring training and then implode during the season. I don't see how he will get some team to take that entire contract under any circumstances given his recent health record and age.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2015 0:21:51 GMT -5
Victorino's contract isn't even bad. If Victorino is anywhere near his 2013 production capacity his contract is a bargain. I don't see where his situation is all that different from Ogando's though. And Ogando got roughly $3 mil after incentives if I remember correctly. Guys can do well in spring training and then implode during the season. I don't see how he will get some team to take that entire contract under any circumstances given his recent health record and age. Farrell could forward his collection of Shane Victorino abs pics.* Also worth remembering, Danny Rosenbaum could be joining the PawSox starters later in the year, his TJ was last May. * Michael Silverman @mikesilvermanbb This is big, maybe even weird: Cherington said Victorino is texting pics of his abs to Farrell. #RedSox 9:55 AM - 23 Jan 2015 ADD: Yeah I know BSOHL but, Victorino has had 100% clearance to work out since early December. The videos previously posted of Shane doing beach sand sprints and slaloms were shot in early December, If we recall, last year Victorino's spring was delayed because last year he couldn't start working on his core until late in the off season because of nagging 2013 injuries. That doesn't appear to be any issue whatsoever this year. He looked pretty damn buff and nimble in the videos. (For those of you that have never left New England ((parts of the Cape excepted)), beach sand running is incredibly strenuous).
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 1, 2015 12:05:18 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 1, 2015 13:44:30 GMT -5
Back away from the ledge... I think he started reading SoxProspects, if that helps to relieve your angst.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 1, 2015 14:11:38 GMT -5
Back away from the ledge... I think he started reading SoxProspects, if that helps to relieve your angst. He did actually reference fangraphs in that article. Wow.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2015 14:31:40 GMT -5
Where we have one of the top prospects in baseball. Future looks good. The most bizarre part to me is that we have an actual prospect at every position in Pawtucket except RF. This isn't a group of career minor leaguers and org guys. And 3/5 of last year's starting rotation at Pawtucket now plays for either the Diamondbacks or the Rangers. Most prospects either don't pan out or end up being traded.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 1, 2015 14:55:17 GMT -5
The most bizarre part to me is that we have an actual prospect at every position in Pawtucket except RF. This isn't a group of career minor leaguers and org guys. And 3/5 of last year's starting rotation at Pawtucket now plays for either the Diamondbacks or the Rangers. Most prospects either don't pan out or end up being traded. Or they fill in for injuries better than minor league free agents. Oh and Vazquez and Betts were in the minors to start the season last year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2015 20:41:58 GMT -5
And 3/5 of last year's starting rotation at Pawtucket now plays for either the Diamondbacks or the Rangers. Most prospects either don't pan out or end up being traded. Or they fill in for injuries better than minor league free agents. Oh and Vazquez and Betts were in the minors to start the season last year. In term of prospect value as opposed to fandom value, is there really a difference if they go on to play for the Sox or are traded for somebody that plays for the Sox ? Brock Holt also expired his rookie status last year.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 1, 2015 21:48:23 GMT -5
Or they fill in for injuries better than minor league free agents. Oh and Vazquez and Betts were in the minors to start the season last year. In term of prospect value as opposed to fandom value, is there really a difference if they go on to play for the Sox or are traded for somebody that plays for the Sox ? Brock Holt also expired his rookie status last year. Well, if for example an Owens, Johnson, and Swihart go for, say, a Hamels, somehow there is a difference between what they bring to the Sox and what they cost the Sox, versus what Hamels brings to the Sox and what he costs the Sox. Now I suppose that "is a measure of prospect value" in some sense, but the both the shorter-term and longer-term direction of the franchise may look significantly different with Hamels on the team and none of those guys available to make contributions versus if such a trade weren't made and these guys stayed around to make whatever contribution they would make to the future of the franchise. There is "a difference."
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2015 21:56:45 GMT -5
There's a difference in what they bring the Sox, not their prospect value. Viewing it from the other side, we lost Miller but got Rodriguez. Obviously, to date, Miller would have brought the Sox more value because Rodriguez is still in Pawtucket and Miller was in Boston but the current prospect value of Rodriguez is greater than what Miller would have given us for half a year and that would still be true if we included Rodriguez in a trade.
|
|
|
Post by 111soxfan111 on Feb 2, 2015 11:50:19 GMT -5
Guy you shouldn't sleep on: Jackie Bradley. It's easy to forget he exists, considering the addition of Castillo and the emergence of Betts as well as the fact that he's lost prospect status and rookie eligibility, but Bradley absolutely still has a very good chance of being an above-average regular... I was thinking about this in the context of potential trades for a front-line SP and whether they should trade now vs waiting until the deadline. It will be very interesting to watch that second tier group at Pawtucket: JBJ, Cecchini, Marerro, Coyle, Escobar and Shaw. Maybe I'm just being a homer but I think collectively that group will have a lot more value come July 1st than they do now. There are plenty of arguments for me being a homer ... I'll leave that for someone else. The argument against this being pure homerism is the skewed value of quality vs quantity: three guys ranking around 150 <> one guy at 50. If any of these guys take a major step forward this year it's nearly enough to make up for the all the others disappointing. Given the number of guys we have in that group it seems like the odds are in our favor. Maybe I'm stretching it a bit to include Shaw (Coyle too?). There may be enough question marks there that a 2-3 months of impressive performance won't be enough to convince GMs the progress is real but even if you take one of them out of that group I think the argument is still valid. And, FWIW, you could also add Johnson to that group since it seems like his performance in AA is discounted by the general consensus on his low ceiling.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2015 12:58:52 GMT -5
Guy you shouldn't sleep on: Jackie Bradley. It's easy to forget he exists, considering the addition of Castillo and the emergence of Betts as well as the fact that he's lost prospect status and rookie eligibility, but Bradley absolutely still has a very good chance of being an above-average regular... I was thinking about this in the context of potential trades for a front-line SP and whether they should trade now vs waiting until the deadline. It will be very interesting to watch that second tier group at Pawtucket: J BJ, Cecchini, Marerro, Coyle, Escobar and Shaw. Maybe I'm just being a homer but I think collectively that group will have a lot more value come July 1st than they do now. There are plenty of arguments for me being a homer ... I'll leave that for someone else. The argument against this being pure homerism is the skewed value of quality vs quantity: three guys ranking around 150 <> one guy at 50. If any of these guys take a major step forward this year it's nearly enough to make up for the all the others disappointing. Given the number of guys we have in that group it seems like the odds are in our favor. Maybe I'm stretching it a bit to include Shaw (Coyle too?). There may be enough question marks there that a 2-3 months of impressive performance won't be enough to convince GMs the progress is real but even if you take one of them out of that group I think the argument is still valid. And, FWIW, you could also add Johnson to that group since it seems like his performance in AA is discounted by the general consensus on his low ceiling. Which guy there is a top 50 prospect?
|
|
|
Post by 111soxfan111 on Feb 2, 2015 13:06:46 GMT -5
None of them. The key phrase was right after your last bold: "If any of these guys take a major step forward..."
The point is that they have a lot more upside than downside. Given the quantity of guys in that second tier I think odds are good one of them makes that jump and obtains real trade value by the deadline.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 2, 2015 13:46:15 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 4m4 minutes ago Intrepid Jonny Miller of WBZ reports J. Bradley Jr., J. Masterson, R. Porcello + P. Sandoval among #RedSox working out at the Fort today
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2015 15:13:26 GMT -5
I was thinking about this in the context of potential trades for a front-line SP and whether they should trade now vs waiting until the deadline. It will be very interesting to watch that second tier group at Pawtucket: J BJ, Cecchini, Marerro, Coyle, Escobar and Shaw. Maybe I'm just being a homer but I think collectively that group will have a lot more value come July 1st than they do now. There are plenty of arguments for me being a homer ... I'll leave that for someone else. The argument against this being pure homerism is the skewed value of quality vs quantity: three guys ranking around 150 <> one guy at 50. If any of these guys take a major step forward this year it's nearly enough to make up for the all the others disappointing. Given the number of guys we have in that group it seems like the odds are in our favor. Maybe I'm stretching it a bit to include Shaw (Coyle too?). There may be enough question marks there that a 2-3 months of impressive performance won't be enough to convince GMs the progress is real but even if you take one of them out of that group I think the argument is still valid. And, FWIW, you could also add Johnson to that group since it seems like his performance in AA is discounted by the general consensus on his low ceiling. Which guy there is a top 50 prospect? Jackie Bradley Jr. was ranked as BA's 31st best prospect and BP's 23rd best prospect as recently as a year ago. Garin Cecchini was ranked as BA's 74th best prospect and BP's 51st best prospect as recently as a year ago. Edwin Escobar was ranked BA's 56th best prospect as recently as a year ago (though unranked by BP). It is certainly not outlandish to suggest that one of those prospects (or Marrero, if he hits) could reach that level of value with a great first half in 2015.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2015 15:26:48 GMT -5
I am a huge Cecchini guy (even bigger after all the wings last night) but with the way these lists are done, and how Cecchini and Bradley (who I still like) are another year older, I think it would take an outsized performance to get them into top 50 prospect status. This isn't to say they aren't valuable and don't have the opportunity to increase their value, but that is pretty rarified air considering who is generally ahead of them, even in their respective positions on the field.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Feb 2, 2015 16:04:22 GMT -5
While I sometimes disagree with Cafardo, I like his work overall. He is close to the Sox, traveling with them, etc., and has a lot of good information others don't get. Sometimes he's wrong, as with the Moncada procedure. I let him know and he corrected it, (not because of me; others, no doubt, let him know). I'm ambivalent about the DH. While happy that we have it in the AL, I'm glad there's some difference between the leagues.
|
|
|
Post by templeusox on Feb 2, 2015 16:36:06 GMT -5
Who is that?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 2, 2015 16:58:24 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Feb 2, 2015 16:59:45 GMT -5
He's listed on the SP Lowell Roster as "Acquisition". There goes his one year of development since the Spinners play a 76 game season.
|
|
|