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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2014 11:23:26 GMT -5
What's the deal with talking about players who have Jay-Z as an agent like they have leprosy? We already deal with Boras, probably more than most teams do. Cespedes switching to Jay-Z didn't really change a thing.
I don't think the Red Sox had a chance in signing Cespedes for what they think he'd be worth before he switched agents and they were already willing to let some other moron team give him 9 figures.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 21, 2014 11:32:19 GMT -5
I don't understand how people can say the Red Sox got nothing for Lester as if 2015 at-bats for Cespedes don't count for anything.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 21, 2014 16:08:03 GMT -5
I don't understand how people can say the Red Sox got nothing for Lester as if 2015 at-bats for Cespedes don't count for anything. But he's not [insert prospect we weren't getting anyway].
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Post by bsout2 on Oct 21, 2014 18:46:24 GMT -5
I don't understand how people can say the Red Sox got nothing for Lester as if 2015 at-bats for Cespedes don't count for anything. If the Red Sox win the WS next year, Cespedes hits 35 HR during the 2015 year and walks as a FA, people will still get mad about the trade.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2014 19:17:30 GMT -5
I agree that Cespedes could play a key role on the 2015 Red Sox. Which is kind of why I'm frustrated about the Lackey deal. He was, as we've discussed ad nauseam, under contract for short money in 2015. He's also more likely to be good in 2015 than Kelly, and Cespedes makes Craig's role less obvious. The Lester trade was sort of a definitive statement that the Red Sox are a '15 contender, but the Lackey deal undermined that.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 21, 2014 20:11:47 GMT -5
I agree that Cespedes could play a key role on the 2015 Red Sox. Which is kind of why I'm frustrated about the Lackey deal. He was, as we've discussed ad nauseam, under contract for short money in 2015. He's also more likely to be good in 2015 than Kelly, and Cespedes makes Craig's role less obvious. The Lester trade was sort of a definitive statement that the Red Sox are a '15 contender, but the Lackey deal undermined that. I think that we are all being a bit too trade judgmental at this waaaay too early stage. Moreover we all believe that the team will look vastly different next May. As an aside, I don't think Mookie will be traded because leadoff guys are more rare than a blue lobster.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2014 20:20:51 GMT -5
Just to be clear, I don't think either trade was terrible on it's face. I was fine with the Lester trade, and while I didn't love the Lackey trade I understood it as far as a value acquisition. As part of an overall team-building approach though, I think they complemented each other poorly.
One think I think we can all agree on though is that, no matter the approach, Miller for Rodriguez was a phenomenal deal. Even if Rodriguez busts, that's a killer return for a non-contending team to get for a reliever whose contract is expiring.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 21, 2014 20:56:04 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 13m13 minutes ago Performance aside, have to wonder if Shields' playoff workload on top of 227 IP in reg season hurts chance of getting 5th yr in free agency
Bill Shaikin ?@billshaikin 10m10 minutes ago James Shields, postseason: 7.11 ERA, .346 opponent batting average. #Royals #freeagency
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2014 16:01:43 GMT -5
I just moved a bunch of posts out of here that were related to the Cespedes trade into that thread. Go knock yourselves out there.
If the discussion in this thread continues to veer into being completely redundant of that going on in other threads, we're probably going to close it. We just don't want to fragment discussion on a single topic into multiple threads.
(Frankly, this is why we generally aren't huge fans of big "catch-all" threads, because that's what happens.)
Happy posting.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 23, 2014 8:29:20 GMT -5
Off-topic thought, and maybe it doesn't really belong here, but in a way I'm kind of happy with the continued implosion of "Big Game James" in the playoffs. The reason I say that is because I don't believe the Red Sox will be able to sell a bill of goods with just the acquisition of Shields. With a 3-5 record and a 5.74 ERA in the playoffs I highly doubt the Red Sox front office can spin a Shields signing as "Lester's replacement". In fact, it might be tough for them to sell him as Lackey's replacement.
I don't know if being "clutch" actually exists, but choking certainly does and he's done a ton of that.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 23, 2014 10:35:11 GMT -5
Off-topic thought, and maybe it doesn't really belong here, but in a way I'm kind of happy with the continued implosion of "Big Game James" in the playoffs. The reason I say that is because I don't believe the Red Sox will be able to sell a bill of goods with just the acquisition of Shields. With a 3-5 record and a 5.74 ERA in the playoffs I highly doubt the Red Sox front office can spin a Shields signing as "Lester's replacement". In fact, it might be tough for them to sell him as Lackey's replacement. I don't know if being "clutch" actually exists, but choking certainly does and he's done a ton of that. Clutch and choking in such a small sample can mean a lot of line drives hit right at people and great defensive plays or a lot of ground ball and bloop singles with poor defense not including errors. Or it can mean they got an umpire with a slightly bigger or smaller strike zone at crucial times.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 23, 2014 11:01:05 GMT -5
Off-topic thought, and maybe it doesn't really belong here, but in a way I'm kind of happy with the continued implosion of "Big Game James" in the playoffs. The reason I say that is because I don't believe the Red Sox will be able to sell a bill of goods with just the acquisition of Shields. With a 3-5 record and a 5.74 ERA in the playoffs I highly doubt the Red Sox front office can spin a Shields signing as "Lester's replacement". In fact, it might be tough for them to sell him as Lackey's replacement. I don't know if being "clutch" actually exists, but choking certainly does and he's done a ton of that. Clutch and choking in such a small sample can mean a lot of line drives hit right at people and great defensive plays or a lot of ground ball and bloop singles with poor defense not including errors. Or it can mean they got an umpire with a slightly bigger or smaller strike zone at crucial times. I don't know if you can truly increase your hand/eye coordination or put more spin, control, movement on a baseball when the opportunity shines (aka clutch), but I don't believe that every player plays up to their true level of talent when it comes to pressurized moments. When you watch Shields on the mound in October, do you get the impression that he's being screwed by the umpires and that he's having a lot of easy outs fall for hits? He has a career ERA of 3.72, had an ERA this year of 3.21 and in 53.1 IP he has an ERA of 5.74. 53.1 IP is not THAT small of a sample size. It's not like they all came from a single game either: ER per start: 3 - 6.1 IP (average/good) 2 - 7.1 IP (good) 3 - 5.2 IP (average) 0 - 5.2 IP (great) 4 - 4.1 IP (poor) 7 - 5.0 IP (terrible) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 2 - 6.0 IP (good) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 5 - 3.0 IP (terrible) Shields is better than that as his career has indicated.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 23, 2014 11:17:45 GMT -5
Clutch and choking in such a small sample can mean a lot of line drives hit right at people and great defensive plays or a lot of ground ball and bloop singles with poor defense not including errors. Or it can mean they got an umpire with a slightly bigger or smaller strike zone at crucial times. I don't know if you can truly increase your hand/eye coordination or put more spin, control, movement on a baseball when the opportunity shines (aka clutch), but I don't believe that every player plays up to their true level of talent when it comes to pressurized moments. When you watch Shields on the mound in October, do you get the impression that he's being screwed by the umpires and that he's having a lot of easy outs fall for hits? He has a career ERA of 3.72, had an ERA this year of 3.21 and in 53.1 IP he has an ERA of 5.74. 53.1 IP is not THAT small of a sample size. It's not like they all came from a single game either: ER per start: 3 - 6.1 IP (average/good) 2 - 7.1 IP (good) 3 - 5.2 IP (average) 0 - 5.2 IP (great) 4 - 4.1 IP (poor) 7 - 5.0 IP (terrible) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 2 - 6.0 IP (good) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 5 - 3.0 IP (terrible) Shields is better than that as his career has indicated. And the only reason he's still pitching is because Lester helped blow a 3 run lead in the 8th in the WC game. Still really small samples.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 23, 2014 11:19:53 GMT -5
I don't know if you can truly increase your hand/eye coordination or put more spin, control, movement on a baseball when the opportunity shines (aka clutch), but I don't believe that every player plays up to their true level of talent when it comes to pressurized moments. When you watch Shields on the mound in October, do you get the impression that he's being screwed by the umpires and that he's having a lot of easy outs fall for hits? He has a career ERA of 3.72, had an ERA this year of 3.21 and in 53.1 IP he has an ERA of 5.74. 53.1 IP is not THAT small of a sample size. It's not like they all came from a single game either: ER per start: 3 - 6.1 IP (average/good) 2 - 7.1 IP (good) 3 - 5.2 IP (average) 0 - 5.2 IP (great) 4 - 4.1 IP (poor) 7 - 5.0 IP (terrible) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 2 - 6.0 IP (good) 4 - 5.0 IP (poor) 5 - 3.0 IP (terrible) Shields is better than that as his career has indicated. And the only reason he's still pitching is because Lester helped blow a 3 run lead in the 8th in the WC game. Still really small samples. This much is true; however, there is a pattern of success with Lester. When has James ever dominated a series? Again over 50 IP isn't really that small of a sample size.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2014 19:06:59 GMT -5
So just to be clear, once the series ends we're going to start a thread (which I think we do every year) predicting or defending what each of us think the Sox should do, and reactive/evaluation threads for each actual move they do make, right? Otherwise this sucker will go into the 100s of pages.
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2014 19:17:25 GMT -5
We'll keep this thread around as a catch-all, but yes, there will be other threads for more specific topics.
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Post by dewey1972 on Oct 23, 2014 22:07:03 GMT -5
And the only reason he's still pitching is because Lester helped blow a 3 run lead in the 8th in the WC game. Still really small samples. This much is true; however, there is a pattern of success with Lester. When has James ever dominated a series? Again over 50 IP isn't really that small of a sample size. 50 innings is actually a pretty small sample. Quick example: in 2010, Cliff Lee was ridiculously good for most of the year. I don't think it's controversial to say that Cliff Lee, post-2007 (when he got sent down to the minors and somehow discovered before the next season how to never walk anyone but still strike out plenty of people and not give up many hits) is a better pitcher than James Shields. For the entirety of the year his ERA was 3.18. From April through July 30 it was 2.40. Then over 45 1/3 innings in August his ERA was it was 6.35. That said, it's certainly possible that Shields doesn't perform well under pressure. But I don't think his bad ERA over 50 innings is enough to prove it.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2014 22:47:31 GMT -5
I think the milage is catching up with Shields and that for the amount of years and money he'll get you'd be better off throing the same AAV or more after one of those fresher flowers named "Scherzer" or "Lester."
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 24, 2014 17:00:47 GMT -5
Actually belongs better in the post-season game thread ...
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 24, 2014 20:26:58 GMT -5
I don't understand how people can say the Red Sox got nothing for Lester as if 2015 at-bats for Cespedes don't count for anything. I think it's time to call a moratorium on discussion of the Lester trade because it quickly becomes same ol', same ol'. But I'll jump in here one more time anyways. Yes, we may get the 2015 PAs of Cespedes. But about 70 percent of those PAs will end with him trudging back to the dugout after making another out. The simple reason why some of us were disappointed in the trade is that we just don't like Cespedes the player. He's an extreme low OBP guy for a corner OFer and/or a middle-of-the-order bat. And as we saw during his two months with the RS, he reacts to flyballs like they're live grenades coming at him. Now, if BC can turn him into something useful this winter, it will change my perception of the trade. But until that happens, I'll remain disappointed in the return we got for Lester.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 25, 2014 12:05:49 GMT -5
I thought Billy Beane robbed us on Lester given the historic return on ace pitchers at deadline, however the market had been deflated..I like the return on Lackey much more given his age, attitude and Kelley's stuff.
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Post by caseytins on Oct 25, 2014 14:40:00 GMT -5
Here's my ideal offseason:
1) Trade for Cueto - I give them 3 or 4 of the following: Ranaudo, Webster, Johnson, Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Coyle, Marrero, and Escobar. Basically, I wouldn't trade Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, Margot, Chavis, or Devers at this point.
2) Resign Lester - He can pitch in a pressure environment. Don't lowball him and we can sign him. I know his family and he wants to resign.
3) Sign Sandoval - The 3rd base market is pretty sad. I happen to love Pablo. He is a clutch hitter and plays better defense than he is given credit for.
4) Resign Miller - He's been great the past couple of years as we all know. As an added bonus, he can get both righties and lefties out. I think the Royals are showing everyone the significance of a BP. If not Miller, we need to spend some cash to provide additional depth as there cannot be enough here.
5) Sign a #4 starter that can give you innings (ex: Ervin Santana) - With the team's surplus of back end pitching, I think it's a consensus that some will be back of the rotation starters and some will fall into certain relief roles. As this plays out, I feel as though we need an innings eater. There are a few options here..
2015-16 Lineup:
C: C Vazquez 1B: M Napoli 2B: D Pedroia SS: X Bogaerts 3B: P Sandoval LF: Y Cespedes CF: R Castillo RF: M Betts DH: D Ortiz SP1: J Lester SP2: J Cueto SP3: J Kelly SP4: E Santana SP5: R De La Rossa CL: K Uehara BP1: J Tajawa BP2: A Miller BP3: M Barnes BP4: B Workman BP5: B Badenhop BP6: Britton, Layne (lefty??) BE1: J Bradley, Jr BE2: B Holt BE3: A Craig BE4: Catcher (Ross perhaps)
Basically, I really want to trade for Cueto (Amaro is not worth dealing with), resign Lester, sign Pablo, and then work hard at the rest.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 25, 2014 18:07:42 GMT -5
I like your plan. I want the Sox to obtain two top SP pitchers, by FA signing or trades. I also like Sandoval but I suspect he will become too expensive. Miller may also price himself out of reach, but there are lots of ways of getting decent RPs.
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Post by bookiemetts on Oct 25, 2014 19:24:27 GMT -5
I like your plan. I want the Sox to obtain two top SP pitchers, by FA signing or trades. I also like Sandoval but I suspect he will become too expensive. Miller may also price himself out of reach, but there are lots of ways of getting decent RPs. I also like that plan. I did notice that Shane isn't seen on there anywhere, so if they can find a taker for him that clears up some cash to use on Miller or Sandoval, even if the have to eat some of the money. I just don't know how many games he will actually play, and even if he is healthy they might have better players (Mookie, Castillo, etc.)
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Post by caseytins on Oct 25, 2014 20:58:26 GMT -5
Shane is a sunk cost. I'm all about looking at things in perspective,
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