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2014-15 offseason discussion
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Nov 3, 2014 12:22:21 GMT -5
It would be interesting if the Sox signed Moncada, Tomas, and Lester. We would obviously have to trade Cespedes and another outfielder for pitching or other pressing need. This would set up the Sox for years to come. In 2016 the Sox have a lot of money coming off the boards, which would give the Sox more flexibility. I would hope Moncada will play a good 3b if he signs with the Sox.
Does anybody here think the Sox will spend above 186 million for just next year? If the Sox did it would allow them to improve the team faster.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 3, 2014 14:18:11 GMT -5
Possibly the payroll the year after this goes down dramatically.
A top 3 pitcher and Sandoval is on my wish list for free agency.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 3, 2014 15:58:26 GMT -5
Herrera outrighted to AAA and elects Free Agency and Rivero waived (claimed by Mariners). 2 more 40 man spots
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 3, 2014 19:36:34 GMT -5
If there are very good players available I would hope the Sox have this year and next in mind. Don't forget the Cardinals may be in play. Not to sound like a jerk but they may want Craig back or Cespedes. This season coming up is going to have major turnover also. We are only committed to Petey and Castillo. Either last year on contracts or entering option years.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 3, 2014 22:14:00 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 3, 2014 22:34:57 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Bill James Handbook projections: Sandoval .287/.344/.447; Headley .262/.350/.411.”
“@brianmacp: From the generally optimistic Bill James Handbook: Betts projected to hit .331/.405/.493; Castillo .261/.316/.462; Cespedes .267/.319/.467.”
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 3, 2014 22:40:18 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Bill James Handbook projections: Sandoval .287/.344/.447; Headley .262/.350/.411.” “@brianmacp: From the generally optimistic Bill James Handbook: Betts projected to hit .331/.405/.493; Castillo .261/.316/.462; Cespedes .267/.319/.467.” So Betts, Castillo, and Cespedes are projected to hit like Andrew McCutchen and a pair of Adam Jones. I am skeptical.
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Post by jmei on Nov 3, 2014 22:43:17 GMT -5
Yearly reminder: Bill James has basically nothing to do with the Bill James Handbook. Those projections are put up by BIS and are perennially extremely optimistic for hitters.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 3, 2014 22:59:36 GMT -5
Betts would be an MVP candidate if that somehow holds true.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2014 0:10:46 GMT -5
Herrera outrighted to AAA and elects Free Agency and Rivero waived (claimed by Mariners). 2 more 40 man spots And not Lavarnway, which suggests they're only selecting four players to the 40-man, presumably Swihart, Rodriguez, Coyle, and Shaw. Unless they're working on a deal for Lavarnway, which would open up a spot for Garcia or whomever. Note that this doesn't mean Lavarnway (or Butler, for that matter) survives on the roster until next spring, since they need to add four or five players after rosters are set.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 4, 2014 10:23:53 GMT -5
Yearly reminder: Bill James has basically nothing to do with the Bill James Handbook. Those projections are put up by BIS and are perennially extremely optimistic for hitters. Lest we forget that the 2014 third baseman thread would be moot if the handbook was ever accurate on Will Middlebrooks...
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Post by Guidas on Nov 4, 2014 11:03:11 GMT -5
Keith Law with his best and worst pitching values and trade targets. Interesting piece, unless you're a pure KLaw hater, in which case you'll read just to prove to yourself how wrong he is: insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11817629/2015-mlb-free-agency-starting-pitchers-buyer-guide?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_LawGuides_SPA few excerpts (there's a lot of content in the piece) Best Values Brandon McCarthy became a different pitcher in New York after his escape from Phoenix, using his whole repertoire again, missing more bats and cutting down dramatically on the long balls. He was healthy all year, enough that I feel good about him exceeding his ZiPS forecast just by throwing more innings than the system anticipates, and his style of pitching is one that tends to age well and doesn't rely on him having peak velocity. The Yankees also couldn't give him a qualifying offer, so he doesn't have a draft pick attached. Max Scherzer. Yes, he'll be overpaid in terms of the length of whatever contract the market gives him, but Scherzer is the best free agent available this winter and his impact in 2015 will exceed the $20-plus million he'll be paid in that season. He generated over 12 WAR over the last two seasons; ZiPS has him projected to generate 17 more over the next three. You add a six-win starter to a team that was already a contender or close to it, you're probably going to get your money's worth, and in Scherzer's case, he's as "safe" a starter as there is on the market this winter. Worst Values James Shields is a bad value if you think he's an ace and pay him like one -- if you buy into the "Big Game James" gambit and figure that's worth something extra in the paycheck. If you pay him to be a durable, effective mid-rotation starter, you'll probably make out okay, but the way this market seems to be shaking out, once the two aces, Scherzer and Jon Lester, are off the market, teams that lost out on those guys may pursue Shields as a replacement, paying him more than he's worth because he's the next-best option. He's good, just not elite. Trade candidates he rates include Samardzija, Cueto, Kennedy and Wheeler.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 4, 2014 11:17:29 GMT -5
Another piece by Klaw rating top 50 free agents (dude's been busy): insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11791040/max-scherzer-tops-year-free-agent-rankings-mlb?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_keithlawtop50freeagents#2 on the list, but #1 in your hearts is Jon Lester. Excerpt from an extensive write-up: Lester, like Scherzer, has been extremely durable, with seven straight seasons of 31 or more starts and 191 or more innings, suffering no injury more serious than a lat strain in July 2011. Because he doesn't rely as much on power as Scherzer does, I'm a little more optimistic about what the back end of a long-term deal for Lester might look like; on the other hand, the gradual decline in his ground ball rate over the past four years and rise in his line-drive rate might not age as well. As with Scherzer, I see Lester as a No. 1 starter today and probably a No. 2 by the end of a long-term deal, good for 4 to 6 WAR a year over a long-term deal. Read it all. It's good for you
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 4, 2014 11:35:26 GMT -5
It would be interesting if the Sox signed Moncada, Tomas, and Lester. We would obviously have to trade Cespedes and another outfielder for pitching or other pressing need. This would set up the Sox for years to come. In 2016 the Sox have a lot of money coming off the boards, which would give the Sox more flexibility. I would hope Moncada will play a good 3b if he signs with the Sox. Does anybody here think the Sox will spend above 186 million for just next year? If the Sox did it would allow them to improve the team faster. Counting on Moncada to man 3B would be a leap of faith. He's only 19, and, while he has good potential, he would need more seasoning. I don't know, is he better than Devers? And Rafael is projected for an ML debut in 2016 at the earliest. I'd love for Ben to sign all three, provided Moncada is declared eligible before June 15.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 4, 2014 11:51:38 GMT -5
It would be interesting if the Sox signed Moncada, Tomas, and Lester. We would obviously have to trade Cespedes and another outfielder for pitching or other pressing need. This would set up the Sox for years to come. In 2016 the Sox have a lot of money coming off the boards, which would give the Sox more flexibility. I would hope Moncada will play a good 3b if he signs with the Sox. Does anybody here think the Sox will spend above 186 million for just next year? If the Sox did it would allow them to improve the team faster. Counting on Moncada to man 3B would be a leap of faith. He's only 19, and, while he has good potential, he would need more seasoning. I don't know, is he better than Devers? And Rafael is projected for an ML debut in 2016 at the earliest. I'd love for Ben to sign all three, provided Moncada is declared eligible before June 15. Ben Badler tweeted yesterday, in response to that exact question, that he prefers Moncada to Devers.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 4, 2014 14:42:48 GMT -5
Did he say why he prefers the other guy over devers?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 4, 2014 14:49:38 GMT -5
I asked him a while back here is what he said:
@benbadler Moncada. Potential impact bat and a much more dynamic player.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 14:53:35 GMT -5
It would surely be a budget breaker but if you could convince Hanley to play 3B that would be a nice offensive bat to put in the order and not a negative defensively. I really have no idea what his market is going to look like and what the expectations on salary he has are though. I imagine it would be nice hitting in Fenway after years in LA. What do you think his eventual contract looks like in years and numbers on this market?
As guides points out or rather Klaw points out first, McCarthy could be a very interesting second starter to land especially with the no draft pick attachment but I bet NY makes a push to sign him to a multiyear deal. In other news I am really starting to dread the idea that Boston ends up with Shields. I know he is an effective starter that logs innings and has value but as mentioned doesn't it feel like he is going to be a large overpay? I'd rather just bite the bullet and land either of Scherzer or Lester. I actually think the Boston roster and finances are set up to handle one large slightly overvalued contract for the right player.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 4, 2014 15:00:18 GMT -5
@marino_Pepen: FUENTE: Pablo Sandoval pudiera estar arribando a un acuerdo con #RedSox de 5 años y US$100 MM. #RedSoxNation #MLB
Translation: Source: Pablo Sandoval could be reaching an agreement with the Red Sox for 5/100.
Now I don know how credible he is and it's only one report so far but I remember he had good sources on Castillo and covers the Sox so I thought it was worth posting.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 4, 2014 15:04:49 GMT -5
@marino_Pepen: FUENTE: Pablo Sandoval pudiera estar arribando a un acuerdo con #RedSox de 5 años y US$100 MM. #RedSoxNation #MLB Translation: Source: Pablo Sandoval could be reaching an agreement with the Red Sox for 5/100. Now I don know how credible he is and it's only one report so far but I remember he had good sources on Castillo and covers the Sox so I thought it was worth posting. Wow, if true. He did break the Castillo signing.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 4, 2014 15:06:01 GMT -5
It would surely be a budget breaker but if you could convince Hanley to play 3B that would be a nice offensive bat to put in the order and not a negative defensively. I really have no idea what his market is going to look like and what the expectations on salary he has are though. I imagine it would be nice hitting in Fenway after years in LA. What do you think his eventual contract looks like in years and numbers on this market? As guides points out or rather Klaw points out first, McCarthy could be a very interesting second starter to land especially with the no draft pick attachment but I bet NY makes a push to sign him to a multiyear deal. In other news I am really starting to dread the idea that Boston ends up with Shields. I know he is an effective starter that logs innings and has value but as mentioned doesn't it feel like he is going to be a large overpay? I'd rather just bite the bullet and land either of Scherzer or Lester. I actually think the Boston roster and finances are set up to handle one large slightly overvalued contract for the right player. The only way I'd ever consider Ramirez at 3B in Boston would be on a 1 year deal, and I have zero insight into how plausible that is. If I had to guess I'd say it's realistic but highly unlikely. Here's why it could work. He's a horrible defensive SS, statistically the worst in the league last year and his health is iffy. If he could play 3B for one year, play a decent 3B to better, and stay healthy with good offensive he'd likely be in line for a bigger payday next year. Beltre 2.0 except you know....HanRam is moving off short. Also there is a better to likely chance of getting that draft pick right back. This would also allow us to evaluate Cecchini/Middlebrooks in Pawtucket longer and punt the long term solution at 3B another year.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 4, 2014 15:06:24 GMT -5
@marino_Pepen: FUENTE: Pablo Sandoval pudiera estar arribando a un acuerdo con #RedSox de 5 años y US$100 MM. #RedSoxNation #MLB Translation: Source: Pablo Sandoval could be reaching an agreement with the Red Sox for 5/100. Now I don know how credible he is and it's only one report so far but I remember he had good sources on Castillo and covers the Sox so I thought it was worth posting. Where there is smoke.......mmmmm If even remotely true, how serious are the Giants in wanting to keep sandavol?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 15:42:37 GMT -5
It would surely be a budget breaker but if you could convince Hanley to play 3B that would be a nice offensive bat to put in the order and not a negative defensively. I really have no idea what his market is going to look like and what the expectations on salary he has are though. I imagine it would be nice hitting in Fenway after years in LA. What do you think his eventual contract looks like in years and numbers on this market? As guides points out or rather Klaw points out first, McCarthy could be a very interesting second starter to land especially with the no draft pick attachment but I bet NY makes a push to sign him to a multiyear deal. In other news I am really starting to dread the idea that Boston ends up with Shields. I know he is an effective starter that logs innings and has value but as mentioned doesn't it feel like he is going to be a large overpay? I'd rather just bite the bullet and land either of Scherzer or Lester. I actually think the Boston roster and finances are set up to handle one large slightly overvalued contract for the right player. The only way I'd ever consider Ramirez at 3B in Boston would be on a 1 year deal, and I have zero insight into how plausible that is. If I had to guess I'd say it's realistic but highly unlikely. Here's why it could work. He's a horrible defensive SS, statistically the worst in the league last year and his health is iffy. If he could play 3B for one year, play a decent 3B to better, and stay healthy with good offensive he'd likely be in line for a bigger payday next year. Beltre 2.0 except you know....HanRam is moving off short. Also there is a better to likely chance of getting that draft pick right back. This would also allow us to evaluate Cecchini/Middlebrooks in Pawtucket longer and punt the long term solution at 3B another year. Doesn't help that he is a right handed bat either. The team really does need a lefty which would lead to the reason Sandoval has been suggested as the main target.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 4, 2014 16:05:06 GMT -5
The only way I'd ever consider Ramirez at 3B in Boston would be on a 1 year deal, and I have zero insight into how plausible that is. If I had to guess I'd say it's realistic but highly unlikely. Here's why it could work. He's a horrible defensive SS, statistically the worst in the league last year and his health is iffy. If he could play 3B for one year, play a decent 3B to better, and stay healthy with good offensive he'd likely be in line for a bigger payday next year. Beltre 2.0 except you know....HanRam is moving off short. Also there is a better to likely chance of getting that draft pick right back. This would also allow us to evaluate Cecchini/Middlebrooks in Pawtucket longer and punt the long term solution at 3B another year. Doesn't help that he is a right handed bat either. The team really does need a lefty which would lead to the reason Sandoval has been suggested as the main target. I agree we need more LHH in the lineup, and I would concede my scenario is not likely but a healthy Hanley would probably hit RHP about as good as any LHH we could pick up for 3B in 2015. He does have a career .860 ops vs. RHP....FWIW.
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 4, 2014 16:14:06 GMT -5
By my count the Yankess currently have $170M committed for 2015 not including arbitration eligibles, Nova, Pineda, and Kelly which would cost them another $8-$10M. I don't see anyway they are under the luxury tax for 2015.
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