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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 21, 2014 12:41:53 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox have a top flight pitching prospect that a Justin Upton deal can be built around and compete against Seattle if they were to offer Taijuan Walker?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 21, 2014 13:07:28 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox have a top flight pitching prospect that a Justin Upton deal can be built around and compete against Seattle if they were to offer Taijuan Walker? Not nearly as good as Walker. We would be countering Walker with Betts more than likely.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 21, 2014 13:12:04 GMT -5
Sox would probably be able to build a deeper package, but they don't have a pitching prospect to match with Walker
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 21, 2014 15:28:17 GMT -5
It's way to quiet
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 21, 2014 15:29:51 GMT -5
What exactly is Christian Vazquez learning from these backup catchers that Jason Varitek can't teach him? I never understand why people seem so focused on getting a "good mentor backup catcher". As long as he isn't a BAD influence (hello AJ), then the only things I'm looking for is a solid fielding, left handed bat with good pop to catch 20-25% of games tops and maybe pinch hit a couple times in the right situation. And if you want to just go cheap, give the job to Butler and enjoy the solid defense.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 21, 2014 15:48:59 GMT -5
What exactly is Christian Vazquez learning from these backup catchers that Jason Varitek can't teach him? I never understand why people seem so focused on getting a "good mentor backup catcher". As long as he isn't a BAD influence (hello AJ), then the only things I'm looking for is a solid fielding, left handed bat with good pop to catch 20-25% of games tops and maybe pinch hit a couple times in the right situation. And if you want to just go cheap, give the job to Butler and enjoy the solid defense. Varitek isn't an every-day coach. Ross could teach him quite a bit about handling pitching staffs and coming up with game plans for every batter. The amount of data you get in the majors is probably overwhelming compared to the minors and Vazquez probably needs to improve on how to use it if I had to guess. I doubt he learned everything he ever will last year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 21, 2014 16:05:21 GMT -5
I know there is a lot of buzz surrounding Avila being traded, but Detroit just picked up his 5.4m option and his father is the assistant GM in Detroit. I'm not saying he won't trade his son, but there'd have to be a pretty compelling reason and yes I know he's not making the decision. I do think it plays a role and I do think there's more of a chance he gets moved to a place that he has some chance at being a starter if he is moved. Besides all that, why do we want a 5.4m backup catcher when we can have one for way cheaper?
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 21, 2014 16:10:59 GMT -5
Just sign Ross, no doubt Swihart gets called up this season at some point so no need to invest too much money.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2014 19:09:06 GMT -5
If they can sign indeed Lester and Sandoval, it simplifies things enormously.
There's no longer much of a need for a LHH backup C, so you just re-sign Ross.
You decide how much many you're willing to pay Andrew Miller, knowing that you only have to match his best other offer, not top it. Then you either sign him, or re-sign Badenhop.
You trade Cespedes et al for Cueto (probably unrealistic given that we want to hang on to our very best prospects), Iwakuma, Samardzija, Latos, Leake (maybe most underrated) or Kazmir.
Ideally the et al is Ranaudo and Coyle (the two best prospects with a consensus "A" rating in the community tradeability rankings, q.v. the Trade Subforum). But there is flexibility. If you sign both Miller and Badenhop, you can include Workman in the deal (either as an extra or in place of one of those two). Ranaudo can be upgraded to Webster or Barnes to get a better pitcher, if that seems wise or proves necessary.
If it's a 3-for-1 deal, then non-tendering Francisco and DFA'ing Lavarnway leaves the roster at 40.
Optionally, you can also deal a reliever (Wilson, Hembree, or Britton) for a low-minors prospect, giving you 39 guys and allowing you to claim someone who is waived to make way for a FA signing. That could be part of the Cespedes trade, or separate. This would also be the way you get down to 40 if you signed both Miller and Badenhop in order to deal Workman.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 21, 2014 19:16:50 GMT -5
Honestly, what are you expecting? Next week they either will or won't sign Sandoval. It's a flip of the coin. They're not signing Lester next week or anybody else maybe other than Sandoval next week, which would be newsworthy. Maybe they have another Francisco type signing, but really it sounds like Lester won't decide until the first week of December or the winter meeting, and it will be the winter meetings where most of the action will take place.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 21, 2014 19:22:46 GMT -5
I still don't get how anxious so many people are to trade Cespedes. The Red Sox have to score a whole lot more runs to be a contender than they did this year. Cespedes is a run producer. Add Sandoval (or Headley or Hanley) to the mix and the Sox possibly have a potent lineup again that can score the runs needed. Subtract Cespedes and no combination of existing players will match his production. Not Nava and Craig, at least not the ones we saw this year, and I, for one, am not willing to bet on significant improvements. Victorino is an unknown - and maybe not even with the team - either on the DL or traded.
I know Cespedes probably leaves next year - but he might be a valuable mid-season trade chip if the Sox are not in contention. There is a chance he could extend with the Sox. There are no minor league OF prospects of significant worth near the majors.
Now, if another hard-hitting OF was acquired, I would be perfectly content with trading Cespedes. But it would be very unwise to trade him without at least a comparable replacement, at least until the Sox are obvious not contenders.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Nov 21, 2014 19:46:35 GMT -5
With the additions of Betts and Castillo our offense improved as well. If we add Sandoval, trading Cespedes would be less. I would almost trade Napoli before Cespedes. It is fairly close to me. It seems tougher to find a good 1b these days though. If Victorino comes back healthy that will help us if we trade an offensive player.
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Post by jmei on Nov 21, 2014 21:29:36 GMT -5
Subtract Cespedes and no combination of existing players will match his production. Not Nava and Craig, at least not the ones we saw this year, and I, for one, am not willing to bet on significant improvements. You don't have to count on significant improvements. 2014, vs. RHP Nava: .293/.372/.397, 118 wRC+ Cespedes: .279/.311/.466, 117 wRC+ Career, vs. RHP Nava: .293/.385/.428, 126 wRC+ Cespedes: .264/.310/.460, 113 wRC+ Now, I know it isn't this simple, and you won't always be able to platoon perfectly. But Nava/RHH (between Craig, Victorino, Brentz, and Hassan, they should be able to find one that works) really should approximate his production. Hell, even if you ignore L/R platoons, Nava is not that far off from Cespedes over their careers (.273/.362/.298 111 wRC+ Nava, .263/.316/.464 115 wRC+ Cespedes), though Cespedes is a slightly better defender and baserunner. There's not a huge gap there, is what I'm saying. Yes, you'd trade some slugging for OBP, but it shouldn't really matter how a player gets his production as long as he produces. And more importantly, if Cespedes is the kind of guy you can use to grab a cheap #2 starter, you have to consider doing so. The difference between Cespedes and Nava/RHH is much, much smaller than the difference between, say, Latos and Allen Webster.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2014 0:12:27 GMT -5
All of that ^, plus this:
If Victorino is healthy and bounces back decently, unblocking him by trading Cespedes gives you an upgrade at the position.
I think if you calculate the odds of Victorino being an upgrade over Cespedes, and the size of that upgrade, and calcualte how small the downgrade is to a Nava / Craig (or Nava / Victorino or Nava / Brentz) platoon, you conclude that, on average, there is little or not hit to the offense at all. But as jmei, said, you gain quite a bit on the rotation.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 22, 2014 2:16:26 GMT -5
I'd rather have Cespedes than Victorino because I think he will have a big season, maybe his career year.
Given the Globe story that the Sox offered 5/95 to Sandoval, I suspect SF will match, or exceed, that offer and he stays with them. That wasn't a closing offer from the Sox, but one designed to test whether he is just using the Sox to jack up the SF offer.
I don't buy the analysis that Nava, etc. can produce something similar to Cespedes. especially if there is not a thumper at 3B.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Nov 22, 2014 4:18:39 GMT -5
I'd rather have Cespedes than Victorino because I think he will have a big season, maybe his career year. Given the Globe story that the Sox offered 5/95 to Sandoval, I suspect SF will match, or exceed, that offer and he stays with them. That wasn't a closing offer from the Sox, but one designed to test whether he is just using the Sox to jack up the SF offer. I don't buy the analysis that Nava, etc. can produce something similar to Cespedes. especially if there is not a thumper at 3B. I agree with your rationale on keeping Cespedes, but I do see why if he was sought out by a team like the Phillies looking to move pitching he could be moved. I do think that 5 95 gets it done on panda. So for those of us who think mookie is ready to leadoff, it leads to an interesting lineup. Mookie Petey Panda Papi Napoli Now, it gets interesting. I don't know whether it will be at the start of the year, but I do think Xander is in for a big rebound and could bat 6th. I also really like Castillo and think he could perform well right out of the gate next year. So if they both hit, and you wanted more of an obp type leading back to the top of the order, it could be Xander Castillo Vasquez Then lf. Under this scenario, a nava/victorino/Craig platoon in left might be more than adequate and thus make Cespedes expendable. Of course, from a pure mashing perspective Mookie Petey Panda Popi Napoli Cespedes Xander Vasquez Castillo Sounds like a top five run scoring team.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 22, 2014 7:37:48 GMT -5
I'd rather have Cespedes than Victorino because I think he will have a big season, maybe his career year. Given the Globe story that the Sox offered 5/95 to Sandoval, I suspect SF will match, or exceed, that offer and he stays with them. That wasn't a closing offer from the Sox, but one designed to test whether he is just using the Sox to jack up the SF offer. I don't buy the analysis that Nava, etc. can produce something similar to Cespedes. especially if there is not a thumper at 3B. What about the analysis don't you buy? (The only thing I can think of is whether Farrell can stick with the platoon). And why, other than your intuition, do you think Cespedes is going to have a career year?
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 22, 2014 8:19:42 GMT -5
Just sign Ross, no doubt Swihart gets called up this season at some point so no need to invest too much money. I wouldn't be so quick to do that. The market for catching is scarce and the Sox have two long term solutions. If you get a great offer for Vazquez you can do it, sign a one year stop gap like Soto, and make Butler his backup. The moment you sign Ross, the potential for that opportunity goes away.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 22, 2014 8:27:15 GMT -5
Just sign Ross, no doubt Swihart gets called up this season at some point so no need to invest too much money. I wouldn't be so quick to do that. The market for catching is scarce and the Sox have two long term solutions. If you get a great offer for Vazquez you can do it, sign a one year stop gap like Soto, and make Butler his backup. The moment you sign Ross, the potential for that opportunity goes away. Not really. It would be the same situation as if you didn't trade Vazquez or sign Soto. Just start Butler in AAA.
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 22, 2014 8:43:09 GMT -5
You would then be wasting whatever money you had used to sign Ross not to mention the roster spot.
Ross and similar players will still be out there in January.
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2014 9:08:38 GMT -5
Ross is not going to cost more than $1-2m, and you'd think he'd prefer to return to Boston than go elsewhere. He's not the type to hold out for as much money as he can get, but he's honestly one of the better backups out there (because of his framing), and I'd be worried that if you waited until January to make him an offer, some other team might scoop him up.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 22, 2014 9:23:12 GMT -5
Exactly plus at some point if you think Swihart is ready during the season, then ross moves over as a bench coach type of position for the rest of the year.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 22, 2014 9:38:18 GMT -5
Exactly plus at some point if you think Swihart is ready during the season, then ross moves over as a bench coach type of position for the rest of the year. While holding down a roster spot as the third catcher?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 22, 2014 9:46:27 GMT -5
Exactly plus at some point if you think Swihart is ready during the season, then ross moves over as a bench coach type of position for the rest of the year. While holding down a roster spot as the third catcher? I'm pretty sure he meant as a non-playing coach, retired.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 22, 2014 11:10:02 GMT -5
I'd rather have Cespedes than Victorino because I think he will have a big season, maybe his career year. Given the Globe story that the Sox offered 5/95 to Sandoval, I suspect SF will match, or exceed, that offer and he stays with them. That wasn't a closing offer from the Sox, but one designed to test whether he is just using the Sox to jack up the SF offer. I don't buy the analysis that Nava, etc. can produce something similar to Cespedes. especially if there is not a thumper at 3B. What about the analysis don't you buy? (The only thing I can think of is whether Farrell can stick with the platoon). And why, other than your intuition, do you think Cespedes is going to have a career year? I like Nava but he has very little power. While I agree with the theory of having average or better than average players at all positions, I disagree that OBA is the most important factor across the board. Most of the time winning teams have some power hitters. The Sox have two, Ortiz and Napoli (until and unless Bogaerts emerges as the power hitter we were expecting). Cespedes drives in runs. Nava does not. We have no idea whether Victorino will even be able to play. Nor do we have any idea whether Craig will recover his mojo. Brentz has yet to prove himself. There simply is too much risk in going with that kind of platoon. The Sox need to significantly improve their run production. Take Cespedes out and the team's run production will not reach the level needed to be a contender. The reasons I think Cespedes will have a big year are that he will have adjusted to the team and the park, Chili Davis will have a positive influence, and he is in his walk year. He will be highly motivated and he is at the right age. Almost every player's best year occurs in his late 20s.
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