SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Sept 4, 2014 10:48:32 GMT -5
Eric, I'll make an avatar bet that Carson Blair doesn't get an MLB deal. I could kinda squint and see your argument on Gibson, who has the versatility a team could use off the bench. But Blair just isn't ready to help an MLB team yet. I like the way he's realized his power so I hope the Sox keep him, but I can't think of any teams where he'd be higher than 5th on the depth chart. I don't even think he'll get a NRI to spring training. So here's the bet - Carson Blair gets a major league deal by spring training, I'll make him my avatar (quite happily, because that would be awesome for him). If he doesn't, you've gotta go for AJ Pierzynski. Why do you care? If they opt not to add him to the 40 man and he becomes a free agent he doesn't need a major league deal to leave - and whether he stays or not is all that should matter on this board. If he gets a MLB deal good for him. However, he might also take a minor league deal if he perceives an easier path to the big leagues. Right now he's behind two very good prospects. That's unlikely to be the case in many organizations.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Sept 4, 2014 12:56:23 GMT -5
I care in that the discussion at hand is regarding adding Blair to the 40-man roster. One of Eric's points is that Blair could get a major league contract, and I'd be extremely, extremely surprised by that. I selfishly would love to keep Blair with the Red Sox, but I do agree that there may be other organizations that he fits into better.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 4, 2014 14:56:46 GMT -5
Just don't get it over Blair and earlier over the infatuation with Gibson. It's like using a spot to protect him from other teams, even though Boston has no need for either anytime within the next several year window?
Why protect Blair, when they have Wilson already, or why remove Wilson in order to protect Blair? They cannot have Swihart, Vazquez, Wilson, Blair protected with other people needing done so (BP will need some fringy prospects first saved), so just WHY would the FO want to hang onto 2 fringy organizational guys in both Blair and Wilson? It makes no sense. 1 (Wilson) with a full season of AAA makes sense as an emergency callup next season. 2 don't.
Herrera makes more sense saving on the 40 man roster than either of Blair OR Gibson with 2 more options starting in 2015.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2014 18:06:58 GMT -5
Just don't get it over Blair and earlier over the infatuation with Gibson. It's like using a spot to protect him from other teams, even though Boston has no need for either anytime within the next several year window? Why protect Blair, when they have Wilson already, or why remove Wilson in order to protect Blair? They cannot have Swihart, Vazquez, Wilson, Blair protected with other people needing done so (BP will need some fringy prospects first saved), so just WHY would the FO want to hang onto 2 fringy organizational guys in both Blair and Wilson? It makes no sense. 1 (Wilson) with a full season of AAA makes sense as an emergency callup next season. 2 don't. Herrera makes more sense saving on the 40 man roster than either of Blair OR Gibson with 2 more options starting in 2015. What? Are you talking about Alex Wilson? And if so... what? I don't know how you get 'Wilson' from 'Butler' but that's the only way this makes sense unless I missed something.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 4, 2014 18:08:22 GMT -5
I assume he meant Butler.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2014 18:35:45 GMT -5
Barnes and Swihart I get. Shaw/Diaz a maybe. Ramos, Coyle, KDLC, Blair, Gibson I just don't see sticking, with anyone really. Frankly I think Couch would be a better addition and provide more potential value to the club for 2015 than any of those guys in the second group. I have no doubts those other guys would be returned if taken, just a matter if the FO likes any of them enough to protect them just to avoid the disruption in development.
(Edit to put Diaz a maybe, just because I could see a scenario where he's MLB depth, not so for the others).
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 4, 2014 18:43:46 GMT -5
Barnes and Swihart I get. Shaw/Diaz a maybe. Ramos, Coyle, KDLC, Blair, Gibson I just don't see sticking, with anyone really. Frankly I think Couch would be a better addition and provide more potential value to the club for 2015 than any of those guys in the second group. I have no doubts those other guys would be returned if taken, just a matter if the FO likes any of them enough to protect them just to avoid the disruption in development. (Edit to put Diaz a maybe, just because I could see a scenario where he's MLB depth, not so for the others). If Coyle isn't protected he will almost certainly be taken and if it is a team that is not planning on contending, they could stuff him on the bench for a year. It isn't worth the risk for a good prospect like that. He'll be protected.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 4, 2014 19:26:59 GMT -5
I assume he meant Butler. Dan Butler, Thanks. Have nearly always gotten the last name(s) of those 2 Dan's mixed up.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2014 19:54:26 GMT -5
Ah, Dan Wilson. At least I know the path that got you there.
I don't fully disagree on Coyle, I just don't see him as a productive MLBer for Boston. He might be a 40 man excess trade candidate with actual value (vs Lavarnway, Wilson etc)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2014 0:08:26 GMT -5
I do understand why folks are baffled about the notion that Blair might be worth protecting.
The only reason I can think of -- and I acknowledge that this is a stretch -- is that he was the best hitting catcher, even adjusted for his age, in all of high-A baseball, and then was promoted to AA and in a very small SS hit even better and was the best hitting catching prospect, again adjusted for age, in all of AA (excepting the Ray's Curt Casali, but he was a year older and got promoted to AAA after his small SS and didn't hit at all).*
I admit to being new at this prospect-judging game, but it seems to make intuitive sense to me that being the best hitter at your position in two levels in the minors is correlated to being a good prospect, and one worth keeping in the organization, regardless of your depth at that position, rather than letting go for nothing. And perhaps being the equivalent of a late-4th round draft pick (in terms of bonus -- a more generous bonus relative to slot recommendations than Henry Ramos or Trenton Kemp, to name two guys more recent and prominent) also means that such a performance is not wholly unexpected or easily dismissed. But maybe that's naive as well.
*Davenport peak translations, of course.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 5, 2014 8:00:51 GMT -5
I understand what you are saying. feeling here is that next season the Sox might be looking at a serious lack of dependable depth in the pen and go through several before they find the right group.
Kurcz, while possibly no better of a prospect, could possibly be of more help in the short term (2015) than could Blair. Have the same iffy feeling on Noe Ramirez also. A team like Houston, with a big BP problem could look to take one of those, like they did with Fields.
Houston (or a team like them who could bury him on the bench) could also take a shot with Henry Ramos if he isn't protected. He (to me) is one of the guys I don't want to lose and am not sure his getting hurt several weeks back will dissuade teams from not selecting him should he be left off the 40 man. Even Couch could go.
It's nothing personal against Blair at all. Just myself see other guys that could *possibly* help the team in 2015.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2014 2:34:49 GMT -5
Eric, I'll make an avatar bet that Carson Blair doesn't get an MLB deal. I could kinda squint and see your argument on Gibson, who has the versatility a team could use off the bench. But Blair just isn't ready to help an MLB team yet. I like the way he's realized his power so I hope the Sox keep him, but I can't think of any teams where he'd be higher than 5th on the depth chart. I don't even think he'll get a NRI to spring training. So here's the bet - Carson Blair gets a major league deal by spring training, I'll make him my avatar (quite happily, because that would be awesome for him). If he doesn't, you've gotta go for AJ Pierzynski. My avatar, Trot taking Roger deep on national TV to get Pedro the win, is inviolable. But I will change my sig to something I said about Blair that proved to be embarrassing. I don't have any idea what you're talking about, see, with the bolded bit. Every year, most guys who get added to 40-man rosters are not ready to help their teams. It's actually not a factor that enters into that decision in the least, nor where a guy ranks on the depth chart. Where did Anibal Sanchez rank on our SP depth chart when we protected him after his Lowell year? Blair was one of the best-hitting catchers in the minors, has already made it to AA, and will have three option years to finish turning himself into the new Kelly Shoppach. Or better.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2014 3:18:02 GMT -5
A possible strategy going forward, take two, additions in bold:
When PawSox season ends: place Jonathan Herrera and Shane Victorino on 60-day DL; select potential mlfa's Ryan Verdugo and Derrik Gibson.
After WS: David Ross, Koji Uehara, and Burke Badenhop declared free agents. Craig Breslow's option declined, ditto. Victorino and Herrera activated (38).
Before roster set: trade an OF, Anthony Ranaudo, and Sean Coyle for a better OF who hits LH. Trade Will Middlebrooks and Bryce Brentz for low-minors talent, or with Joe Kelly or Brandon Workman to rent a frontline starter (35). (Depending on the targets, of course, some of those pieces could be swapped around.) Sell high on Ranaudo who's already behind Wright for next year's 5th starter, according to me. Coyle is blocked and has some of the value you'll need to help land the OF or SP you want. WMB has no roster spot with Betts at 3B and Holt as the utility guy. Brentz and Hassan are redundant pieces and Brentz is sexier. Note that trading Coyle and Brentz actually frees up needed roster space at Pawtucket (e.g., allowing Weeks, Gibson, or Herrera to play 2B, and either Ramos or De La Cruz to move up).
The roster set:
Herrera, Ryan Lavarnway, Drake Britton, Dan Butler, and Carlos Rivero traded or DFA'd. (32).
Matt Barnes, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Kurcz, Noe Ramirez, Carson Blair, Blake Swihart, and Travis Shaw are selected (39).
Now, you are looking to re-sign Lester, Uehara, Miller, and Ross, or the equivalents. How do you make room?
1) Trade Brandon Workman. He's not ever going to start for us, and it's not clear he'd be a better option for the last spot in the pen than Wilson or Hembree. He has more value as someone else's 5th starter than to us. I want to keep him for the pen, if I'm not trading him as part of a package for a rental #2 starter (perhaps with Coyle).
DFA Gibson, Butler and Herrera, hoping they all clear waivers and stay in the system. Note that selecting Gibson was strictly a ploy to keep him out of ml free agency.
What this revised plan demonstrates is that if you make a 3-for-1 deal to get, say, Jason Heyward, and also deal a couple of guys who are deadwood (WMB and Brentz), and do that before rosters are set, you can basically protect everyone we're concerned about, while probably guaranteeing that Gibson stays in the system even if he were thinking of moving on, with the only downside being possibly losing Butler and Herrera, who are unlikely to play important roles.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2014 6:46:07 GMT -5
It's easy to say "make trades before rosters are set," but that's easier said than done. It certainly feels like most major trades wait until the winter meetings or so, because all parties want to consider the alternatives and get a feel for the market. I would certainly hesitate to embrace a strategy which relies on the timing of transactions as a crucial element. The same is true to a lesser extent with relying on 3-for-1-type deals to make room on the 40-man.
I also think a factor to consider with guys like Gibson and Blair (and Celestino, Ruiz, Menenses, etc.) is that Boston likely has a leg up on re-signing them as milb free agents. There will be some consideration of depth chart (which matters particularly for Blair, who has lots of first-hand experience with seeing Vazquez/Swihart ahead of him on the depth chart) and whether a team will give them a major league deal, but otherwise, I'd bet that they're all more likely to re-sign with Boston than to sign an milb deal with any other organization. Gibson and Celestino in particular seem like they'd be willing to re-sign, as this is the organization they know and love and the depth chart in front of them is not terribly crowded.
Sidenote: how many non-mlb-ready minor league free agents get major league deals every year? I just don't really remember guys like Blair (who should start the season in AA and needs at least a year before factoring into the major league equation) getting major league deals. But I don't pay attention to most non-Boston transactions, so the most I can say is that I can't remember the Red Sox ever making a signing like that. I know some milb free agents have gotten major league deals of late, but those guys have all seemed major league ready. Is it just that teams usually add prospectish milb free agents to their 40-man and so this question is moot?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Sept 8, 2014 7:08:16 GMT -5
By my count, zero minor league free agents got signed to major league contracts last year. The Red Sox made a pair in the early 2000's that Eric referenced earlier in the thread: Tim Hamulack and Paul Stewart. 2003/04 was a different time in the game, though. For one thing, Rule 5 rules were different - some real prospects needed to be added earlier, leaving out some borderline MiLB veterans. Also, and there's no way to sugarcoat this, there were more teams that were dumb. Sabermetrics was the scary, baseball-destroying thing the A's did. When Epstein was hired, he was looking everywhere to exploit market inefficiencies, and minor league pitchers with middling stuff and good numbers seemed like a place to start. In general it was a good idea, though neither Hamulack and Stewart panned out.
I think the Red Sox would have a leg up on Gibson and Celestino (who I think still has a chance to be added), but there's certainly a chance that Blair might be more willing to accept an offer from a team with less young catching depth. And that's ok - sometimes a player has to do right be himself.
Honestly Eric, I don't think you've said anything embarrassing about Blair - I actually think he's pretty good, though his strikeout rate is higher than I'm comfortable with. Players added to the 40-man roster, though, are usually either ready to help immediately or have the type of physical skills where you can see an all-star without squinting too hard. Frankly I think the Red Sox have been a bit too aggressive protecting some of the guys who aren't close to ready. Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton are both out of options before they were/are ready to contribute, and their persistence on the 40-man led directly to the 2011-12 roster crunch (where 40-man eligible guys that there was no room for but had upside like Fife, Federowicz, and Chiang were dealt).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2014 8:04:12 GMT -5
There were definitely minor league free agent types who signed major league contracts last year. This article discusses some of them, as well as the general trend of inexperienced minor leagues getting major league deals generally: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/minor-league-free-agents-finding-major-league-deals.htmlBut again, most of those guys were regarded as essentially major-league-ready (Hamulack and Stewart were, as well, at least insofar as they had extensive AA/AAA experience), and even then, only four milb FAs with no major league experience got major league deals, and even that was regarded as hugely aberrational. That might be a trend (the article discusses how Jose Quintana was signed this way and how teams are looking for every possible market inefficiency), but it might also be a one-year fluke. I've looked around and still haven't found any examples of a guy like Blair, with all of 17 games above A-ball, getting a major league deal. I think the odds are very much against it, and it's a risk I'm willing to take. That's especially true because I think Butler, the guy you're pushing off the roster and risking losing, has much greater 2015 value (he still has an option left) and perhaps comparable long-term value (with his defense making up for a lighter bat). The same is true, to a lesser extent, with Gibson, especially since I think he'd be amenable to re-signing on a minor league deal with the Red Sox organization.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 8, 2014 8:20:24 GMT -5
Of the opinion that 2 of the 3 relievers Kurcz, Ramirez, Celestino will get put on the 40 man roster this year. If it's Kurcz, Ramirez, they need (should) press to keep Celestino to stay with the system and hope this is the year he gets his command down at Patucket.
If either Kurcz. Ramirez is left off, think either of them will get taken early in the draft and be missed. Shame they couldn't find a spot for all 3 somehow.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2014 9:10:27 GMT -5
There were definitely minor league free agent types who signed major league contracts last year. This article discusses some of them, as well as the general trend of inexperienced minor leagues getting major league deals generally: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/minor-league-free-agents-finding-major-league-deals.htmlBut again, most of those guys were regarded as essentially major-league-ready (Hamulack and Stewart were, as well, at least insofar as they had extensive AA/AAA experience), and even then, only four milb FAs with no major league experience got major league deals, and even that was regarded as hugely aberrational. That might be a trend (the article discusses how Jose Quintana was signed this way and how teams are looking for every possible market inefficiency), but it might also be a one-year fluke. I've looked around and still haven't found any examples of a guy like Blair, with all of 17 games above A-ball, getting a major league deal. I think the odds are very much against it, and it's a risk I'm willing to take. That's especially true because I think Butler, the guy you're pushing off the roster and risking losing, has much greater 2015 value (he still has an option left) and perhaps comparable long-term value (with his defense making up for a lighter bat). The same is true, to a lesser extent, with Gibson, especially since I think he'd be amenable to re-signing on a minor league deal with the Red Sox organization. Great info here. The thing about Blair, though, is that he may be unique. It simply took him six years to become what I believe is a a top-30 prospect in a super-deep organization, and that's rare. Remember, best hitting catcher in all of high-A ball, and then briefly, better in AA than anyone who played there all year. Those are guys you keep in the organization, period. So I'd like to do that. And it may well be that you can't find a comp for him simply because you can't find a guy who blossomed that much, and that late. I know that if I were an opposing GM with a thin system and open spot on my 40-man (which does happen, every year), I wouldn't hesitate to give him an MLB deal. What's the argument against it? There are scores of guys with less upside on 40-man rosters. I think we can agree that we hope they have a really good relationship with him, because if they could sign him to a minor league deal before the Rule 5 draft, he wouldn't be taken. That would solve the problem very nicely.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2014 9:18:57 GMT -5
It's easy to say "make trades before rosters are set," but that's easier said than done. It certainly feels like most major trades wait until the winter meetings or so, because all parties want to consider the alternatives and get a feel for the market. I would certainly hesitate to embrace a strategy which relies on the timing of transactions as a crucial element. The same is true to a lesser extent with relying on 3-for-1-type deals to make room on the 40-man. I did say it was a "possible" strategy! You've explained why it will be challenging and nifty if they can pull it off. But if they did make a 3-1 for Heyward in mid-November, and then dealt two more guys from that list in small deals, just to clear space for Ramirez and Kurcz, I don't think you'd complain. Absolutely, and my whole thing with putting Gibson on the 40-man (and taking a look at him in MLB) while planing to DFA him later is admittedly just trying to show off a possible strategy that might be clever. It's close to the strategy that bought them an extra virtual option year for Arroyo, which I thought was downright diabolical.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 8, 2014 10:25:29 GMT -5
What meant in earlier post about protecting players from others Eric. I could see an organisation, such as Anahim taking Blair as an upgrade over anything they have at AA up outside of Ianetta ATM. Would it be worthy of handing Blair a MLB deal over? Hmmm.. Though he's an upgrade over what they have at AA, AAA and Congers currently as the backup.
Question is would Boston protect him over Gibson (the other you mentioned) and 2-3 fringy relievers the Sox may themselves need more.
There are every year going to be teams with thin systems and have a couple of AAAA teams protected as a result. Think the Sox are going to lose 1-3 people via MiLFA, draft regardless. I'd prefer it the MiLFA way, but it's always hard to see 'em go.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2014 11:25:39 GMT -5
Time for another look, with a different methodology. And time to declare a big-time roster squeeze, if that wasn't already apparent.
Let's not assume that anyone gets traded, or if they do, it's 1 for 1.
Probable MLB roster. Guys in quotes are placeholders for that player or the equivalent. Italics are re-signs.
"Lester," Buchholz, De La Rosa, Kelly, Barnes (or Wright). Uehara, "Miller," Tazawa, Layne, "Britton," Mujica, Workman, acquisition. They almost always identify an underrated pitcher like Badenhop and add him to the mix. Vazquez, Ross. Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, acquisition; Holt Cespedes, Castillo, Betts; Victorino, Nava, Craig
That's 27 guys -- we assume that the OF crunch gets resolved in ST, and a pitcher ends on the DL. However, the winter roster will include just 21 of these guys (excluding "Lester," "Miller," Uehara, Ross, and the two other acquisitions).
Now let's identify 13 eventually optioned players.
Definitely returning (5):
Edwin Escobar Allen Webster Steven Wright (or Barnes) Garrin Cecchini Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Definitely added (3):
Eduardo Rodriguez Blake Swihart Sean Coyle
Very desirable additions (3)
Aaron Kurcz (tremendous after mid-May) Noe Ramirez Travis Shaw
Possibly squeezed off roster due to no obvious role anywhere (2):
Anthony Ranaudo Will Middlebrooks
Possibly trims because of redundancy and depth (2 + 2):
Heath Hembree (or) Alex Wilson Bryce Brentz (or) Alex Hassan
Very desirable addition who might be re-signable as mlfa (1)
Carson Blair
Possible DFA's (3)
Dan Butler Jonathan Herrera Jemile Weeks
So, if you do in fact trade Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, Hembree or Wilson, Brentz or Hassan, and DFA Butler, Herrea, and Weeks, and sign Blair as an mlfa, then you can add all three of Kurcz, Ramirez, and Shaw. The 7 deletions are only one more than the 6 spots that will eventually be taken by free agent signings and trades, so only one of the deletions needs to be made before rosters are set. That could well be DFA'ing Herrera.
If you do end up making a multi-player deal to get Jason Heyward, a 3B, etc., then of course you can keep some of the 6 further acceptable deletions (some of whom are of course candidates to be part of such trades anyway).
Just for thoroughness:
Guys you would definitely add if you had room, just to be sure, but have no chance (and who might be taken):
Keith Couch Luis Diaz Henry Ramos
Guys you'll try to re-sign as mlfa's:
Miguel Celestino (less so than ...) Ryan Verdugo Derrik Gibson
Guys whom a weak organization might add, but have little chance of being taken:
Chris Hernandez Robby Scott
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Sept 19, 2014 23:01:38 GMT -5
Celestino Really came on as a closer this year. I think the sox love his arm and his electric velocity.
Has he done enough to get a spot?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2014 0:33:33 GMT -5
Celestino Really came on as a closer this year. I think the sox love his arm and his electric velocity. Has he done enough to get a spot? Nowhere near, I think. In the breakdown above I have him as the 55th guy for the 40 spots. Had they intended to add him to the roster in November, they would almost certainly have done so already (moving Pedroia of Herrera to the 60-day DL) and taken a look at him in MLB. He has a live arm, but he had a 5.16 ERA and 6.09 FIP in AAA; tons of strikeouts, but tons of walks and homers, too. I don't think anyone will give him a major league deal, but he will be a sought-after mlfa, and of course he'd be nice to have back.
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Sept 21, 2014 11:23:47 GMT -5
I'd keep Ramos ahead of any or perhaps all of the "possible trims" category- love his upside, particularly head to head against Hassan or even Brentz
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 21, 2014 12:29:30 GMT -5
I'd keep Ramos ahead of any or perhaps all of the "possible trims" category- love his upside, particularly head to head against Hassan or even Brentz Hassan not getting called up yet after the finish of the PawSox season screams of how much the Sox see in him now. I see them attempting to put him into some deal before the draft in order to not remove him from the 40 man roster outright now. Shame, he could be a useful piece in the NL as a 4-5th OF and PH. Another Reed Johnson type perhaps.
|
|
|