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Trade for Cole Hamels
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 7:52:44 GMT -5
Sometimes a coin lands tails twice in a row. Fangraphs' projections regularly outperform Vegas odds and are as good a starting place as any. If you prefer anecdotes, the projections were far more bullish on the 2013 Red Sox than most.
I would similarly be wary of extrapolating trends. Indeed, the impulse should be to regress to the mean rather than assuming a trend will continue. Plenty of veterans that most of us gave up for dead have bounce back years. Think Pujols, Rodroguez, Ethier, etc.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2015 9:14:15 GMT -5
Heck sometimes a coin lands tails 10 times in a row if you go through enough permutations of flipping it 10 times in a row. I once tried beating the odds at Vegas by incrementally increasing my bets to win back losses. Well 5 years and a math based degree later I realized how dumb that was. Low probability and no probability are not the same things and sometimes the worse case scenario just happens.
I don't want to excuse the Red Sox, I think it is obvious they've made some bad decisions but I can't help but believe a lot of this has been due to an abundance of under performances (veterans and rookies) and injuries in the past few seasons. In a different parallel universe these Red Sox could be experiencing a resurgent Justin Masterson, a healthy Victorino, a regular Mike Napoli, a Panda that isn't eating his way below a .700 OPS and a 2014 Rick Porcello. Adding a guy like Hamels could be part of the solution at the right price, but if he's on the block at the deadline I'd almost rather find another asset to add during the winter. Can't freak out when everything goes south because even though you think things can't get worse they could get much worse. As bad as this team is it still has a bright future that shouldn't be thrown away.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,362
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Post by radiohix on Jul 28, 2015 9:37:25 GMT -5
Sometimes a coin lands tails twice in a row. Fangraphs' projections regularly outperform Vegas odds and are as good a starting place as any. If you prefer anecdotes, the projections were far more bullish on the 2013 Red Sox than most. I would similarly be wary of extrapolating trends. Indeed, the impulse should be to regress to the mean rather than assuming a trend will continue. Plenty of veterans that most of us gave up for dead have bounce back years. Think Pujols, Rodroguez, Ethier, etc. To be honest, I don't even look at this projections stuff (It's like believing in the anti wrinkle creams effects IMO)'cause I simply don't believe in it but if you do, good for you and I won't expand the discussion further on the subject so let's agree to disagree. On the other hand, the players you mentioned those guys have been athletes with great plate discipline, Sandoval is a hacker trapped in a body of Sumo-like body and his defense is gone south...just like the other guys you mentioned above. Different stories.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 10:20:10 GMT -5
Sometimes a coin lands tails twice in a row. Fangraphs' projections regularly outperform Vegas odds and are as good a starting place as any. If you prefer anecdotes, the projections were far more bullish on the 2013 Red Sox than most. I would similarly be wary of extrapolating trends. Indeed, the impulse should be to regress to the mean rather than assuming a trend will continue. Plenty of veterans that most of us gave up for dead have bounce back years. Think Pujols, Rodroguez, Ethier, etc. To be honest, I don't even look at this projections stuff (It's like believing in the anti wrinkle creams effects IMO)'cause I simply don't believe in it but if you do, good for you and I won't expand the discussion further on the subject so let's agree to disagree. On the other hand, the players you mentioned those guys have been athletes with great plate discipline, Sandoval is a hacker trapped in a body of Sumo-like body and his defense is gone south...just like the other guys you mentioned above. Different stories. They're all also at least 7 years older than Sandoval. I buy that Sandoval may never be a good defensive 3B again, but arguing that he's done as a useful hitter cause he's fat is stupid on the basis of one bad season. He's been fat forever, and it hasn't affected his reflexes, even in the field this year. Being fat doesn't stop you from having good bat speed, hand-eye, and reflexes, so it shouldn't prevent you from being a good hitter. Look at Ortiz and Prince Fielder too while you're at it
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2015 10:32:05 GMT -5
On the other hand, the players you mentioned those guys have been athletes with great plate discipline, Sandoval is a hacker trapped in a body of Sumo-like body and his defense is gone south...just like the other guys you mentioned above. Different stories. It's a stretch to say that Pujols, Rodriguez and Ethier are great athletes, especially at this point in their careers. But if you prefer, let's say Prince Fielder (fat) and Josh Reddick (hacker), then. Or Kendrys Morales, who is a bit of both. ADD: there are plenty of defenders who have one-year blip bad seasons as well. Think David Freese in 2013 (from 2011-2015, his UZR/150s have gone 4.7, 2.2, -22.7, 1.2, 0.0) or Adrian Beltre in 2013 (from 2011-2015, 16.9, 14.2, -1.4, 5.3, 12.6). Contrary to popular belief, defense slumps just as much as offense does.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 28, 2015 10:46:00 GMT -5
If the Phillies can get C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Luis Ortiz and OF Nick Williams (all prospects being discussed as possibilities along with Chi Chi Gonzalez and Luis Brinson) for Hamels they will have done well and should pounce on it. Seems like we are here. PHI asking for the following as the foundation of the deal (BA midseason top 50) [BP midseason top 50]{Sickels midseason top 75}: TEX - Alfaro (NR)[34]{just missed} or Williams (NR)[21]{26} LAD - De Leon (20)[42]{20} MFY - Severino (17)[28]{16} or Judge (13)[13]{30} BOS - Margot (24)[14]{41} SFO - Susac (PP) and Beede (NR)[just missed]{66}++ ARZ - Shipley (NR)[32]{NR} or Blair (NR)[NR]{48} and Owings (PP)
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 10:56:02 GMT -5
If the Phillies can get C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Luis Ortiz and OF Nick Williams (all prospects being discussed as possibilities along with Chi Chi Gonzalez and Luis Brinson) for Hamels they will have done well and should pounce on it. Seems like we are here. PHI asking for the following as the foundation of the deal (BA midseason top 50) [BP midseason top 50]{Sickels midseason top 75}: TEX - Alfaro (NR)[34]{just missed} or Williams (NR)[21]{26} LAD - De Leon (20)[42]{20} MFY - Severino (17)[28]{16} or Judge (13)[13]{30} BOS - Margot (24)[14]{41} SFO - Susac (PP) and Beede (NR)[just missed]{66}++ ARZ - Shipley (NR)[32]{NR} or Blair (NR)[NR]{48} and Owings (PP) Depending on what else we'd have to give up, I'd be ok with surrendering Margot for Hamels. If they were requiring any of the rest of our top-10 I wouldn't do it though
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 28, 2015 12:02:37 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 28, 2015 12:04:33 GMT -5
We need to trade Margot ASAP! Before his value falls. Midseason top 50 have him at 24, 14 and 41 WOW! I will admit he had some good numbers in 2014, the power he showed got me thinking maybe I was wrong about him and he was going to be a Mike Cameron type player. But this year the power is gone, not only the HR but he's not even hitting doubles that much. Its all upside with him. I know he plays good D and can steal some bases, I'm just not sold on his bat being good enough to think he is 14th best prospect in all of the minors??? I'd say he is a top 100 guy but I would have him ranked in the 50-100 range. I just don't see a Boegarts, Betts or Swihart with him. He reminds me of Jackie Bradley, not as good at D(but few if any are), much better at stealing bases, not as good of a hitter, but could develop more power in time.
If he can be the center piece of a Hamels trade I do it in a heartbeat. Also lets not kid ourselves we will need to include at least one more top 10 prospect. If its someone like Brian Johnson I can live with that.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 12:49:26 GMT -5
We need to trade Margot ASAP! Before his value falls. Midseason top 50 have him at 24, 14 and 41 WOW! I will admit he had some good numbers in 2014, the power he showed got me thinking maybe I was wrong about him and he was going to be a Mike Cameron type player. But this year the power is gone, not only the HR but he's not even hitting doubles that much. Its all upside with him. I know he plays good D and can steal some bases, I'm just not sold on his bat being good enough to think he is 14th best prospect in all of the minors??? I'd say he is a top 100 guy but I would have him ranked in the 50-100 range. I just don't see a Boegarts, Betts or Swihart with him. He reminds me of Jackie Bradley, not as good at D(but few if any are), much better at stealing bases, not as good of a hitter, but could develop more power in time. If he can be the center piece of a Hamels trade I do it in a heartbeat. Also lets not kid ourselves we will need to include at least one more top 10 prospect. If its someone like Brian Johnson I can live with that. I could live with Johnson as well, but I wouldn't give up Owens, Devers, or Kopech off the top of my head. As for comparing Margot and Swihart, I don't think they're that far apart. Margot already would likely be a well-above average defensive CF, Swihart is currently a poor defensive catcher. I like Swihart, but I'm absolutely not convinced he becomes an all-star catcher like some people seem to be, and I definitely wouldn't lump him in with Bogaerts and Betts, who have already fulfilled a good deal of their potential and are actually both younger than Swihart. Margot has a ton of triples this year, and he's struck out at an absurdly low rate. He's also 20, and listed at 5'11 170. Power could very easily come, especially as he already shows some and is supposed to have excellent bat speed. I wouldn't be heartbroken if he got dealt especially because his value is about as high as it could get, but I don't expect him to fall in terms of value. He's rated that high primarily because of his present skill set, not because people are expecting him to also develop 25 HR power all of a sudden, and he's proven to be pretty resistant to extended slumps, partly cause he makes so much contact EDIT: Margot also has an ISO in the .130s at both stops this year, which isn't incredible, but it's certainly serviceable for a guy with a good glove and very good speed
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 28, 2015 12:56:07 GMT -5
If we assume the Rangers offer will end up being Alfaro, Williams and Thompson for Hamels and $30mm cash ($6.5mm in 2015-2018, bringing Hamels down to $2mm/$16mm/$16mm/$16mm in 2015-2018 and paying $4mm of his 2019 $6mm buyout), can the Red Sox beat the offer and, if so, should they?
Let's say an equivalent offer is Margot, Johnson, Vazquez and Marrero (a week ago, I suggested Castillo, Johnson, Marrero and an A-ball lotto ticket, with a possible upgrade to Margot, depending on how much cash PHI was kicking in - I'm now upgrading to my "best and final" offer).
Margot vs. Williams is a wash, Johnson vs. Thompson is a wash. So, the question is whether Vazquez and Marrero vs. Alfaro is a wash. Both Vazquez and Alfaro are out for this year but both should be healthy for 2016. Vazquez is an excellent defensive catcher but may not have the hitting chops. Alfaro is an excellent offensive catcher but may not stick behind the plate and has some swing-and-miss to him. Alfaro is nearly three years younger than Vazquez and doesn't have any major league service time.
At $6-7mm per win/WAR, Hamels' contract, even allowing for regression over the next three years (let's say 4/3.5/2.5 WAR over the three years), would be more than fair. We give up excess prospects and get a solid #2/#3 starter. I think I'd be able to talk myself into this deal.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,842
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2015 14:13:36 GMT -5
No midseason prospect lists point to Margot and Williams being a wash. Margot's floor is way higher with his contact rate, baserunning and plus or better glove in CF. Not knocking Williams, who has power and above average speed. But Margot is a tier higher.
I wouldn't top an Alfaro, Williams, Thompson offer though. That's way too much for Hamels. Philly should pounce on that.
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Post by jdb on Jul 29, 2015 8:32:49 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 29, 2015 20:10:12 GMT -5
Why would he agree to waive his NTC to come here? The Phillies are at least showing signs of life and are not a complete dumpster fire.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 29, 2015 20:45:23 GMT -5
“@sullivan_Ranger: Rangers are getting close to getting Hamels…. Sources are say two sides are almost there to a deal…. Not tonight but Thursday”
“@sullivan_Ranger: Still some details to be worked out but it looks like Rangers could win this Thursday”
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Post by jdb on Jul 29, 2015 20:47:49 GMT -5
Why would he agree to waive his NTC to come here? The Phillies are at least showing signs of life and are not a complete dumpster fire. I agree.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 29, 2015 21:22:31 GMT -5
And a year later it looks like he is going to Texas.
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sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
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Post by sdl on Jul 29, 2015 21:44:06 GMT -5
And a year later it looks like he is going to Texas. Just as long as he's not going to The Bronx.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 29, 2015 21:46:20 GMT -5
If we assume the Rangers offer will end up being Alfaro, Williams and Thompson for Hamels and $30mm cash ($6.5mm in 2015-2018, bringing Hamels down to $2mm/$16mm/$16mm/$16mm in 2015-2018 and paying $4mm of his 2019 $6mm buyout), can the Red Sox beat the offer and, if so, should they? Deal ends up being Hamels, Diekman, cash for Harrison, Alfaro, Williams, Thompson, Asher and Eickoff. Philly did very well, depending on the cash.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jul 29, 2015 21:50:53 GMT -5
Maybe I'm just low on Alfaro, but eating Harrison's contract and not one projected even all-star level player back doesn't seem like a great deal. Preferred the players the Dodgers got for Olivera instead.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 29, 2015 21:54:34 GMT -5
Williams does have all star tools (as does Alfaro) and this year he has taken a step forward.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 29, 2015 22:22:34 GMT -5
Maybe I'm just low on Alfaro, but eating Harrison's contract and not one projected even all-star level player back doesn't seem like a great deal. Preferred the players the Dodgers got for Olivera instead. Thompson is 21YO in AA and looks like a 2/3 starter - BA #49 midseason (Sickels #53 midseason). Williams is 21YO in AA and could be a high ceiling LF - Sickels #26 midseason (not in BA midseason top 50). Alfaro is 22YO in AA and his bat will likely play at OF/1B if he doesn't stick behind the plate - not ranked midseason because of season-ending ankle injury. Eickhoff is 25YO in AAA and likely will be a back-end starter or back-end reliever. Either way, he'll add to PHI's pitching staff. Asher is 23YO in AAA and likely will be a back-end starter or middle reliever. See Eickhoff. With Aaron Nola in the majors, Williams, Thompson and Alfaro become PHI's 2, 3 and 4 prospects and they have added two pitchers to their roster. It's not getting a top 20 prospect, but I didn't think that was ever happening. PHI needed quantity and quality and they got it. Still want to see how much cash they are giving up, on top of Harrison's $28.6mm.
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sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
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Post by sdl on Jul 29, 2015 22:35:14 GMT -5
Hmmm...you wonder if Harrison in turn would be flipped to us.
Would you send Sean Coyle to the Phillies for him?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 29, 2015 22:49:09 GMT -5
No. Hasn't been healthy since 2012.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 29, 2015 23:29:11 GMT -5
No. Hasn't been healthy since 2012. You actually made him sound even more like a Cherington target....
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