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Lester, Gomes & cash traded to OAK for Cespedes + draft pick
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 1, 2014 5:49:28 GMT -5
You have to look at it relative to holding Lester. So, in exchange for moving down a handful of picks in the supplementary first round, the Sox acquire one free year of Yoenis Cespedes. That's a very small acquisition cost. Isn't the competitive balance pick from the A's at the end of the second round, rather than the first? Yes; they are moving down from roughly the #30 pick to roughly the #70 pick, and getting a year (and a third) of Cespedes. Basically, they are picking up Sam Travis's draft slot in exchange for Michael Kopech's.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 6:13:45 GMT -5
Isn't the competitive balance pick from the A's at the end of the second round, rather than the first? Yes; they are moving down from roughly the #30 pick to roughly the #70 pick, and getting a year (and a third) of Cespedes. Basically, they are picking up Sam Travis's draft slot in exchange for Michael Kopech's. May not be that big of a drop. Let's assume we have a Top 10 pick. If we sign a free agent, we would have lost that comp pick instead of our second.
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Post by kman22 on Aug 1, 2014 7:32:39 GMT -5
Yes; they are moving down from roughly the #30 pick to roughly the #70 pick, and getting a year (and a third) of Cespedes. Basically, they are picking up Sam Travis's draft slot in exchange for Michael Kopech's. May not be that big of a drop. Let's assume we have a Top 10 pick. If we sign a free agent, we would have lost that comp pick instead of our second. So it's a drop from 40 to 70 (approximately)? Still significant.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 8:03:36 GMT -5
May not be that big of a drop. Let's assume we have a Top 10 pick. If we sign a free agent, we would have lost that comp pick instead of our second. So it's a drop from 40 to 70 (approximately)? Still significant. Well worth it to get Cespedes IMO.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 8:23:59 GMT -5
Can always trade that pick too this winter as a sweetener to a larger package too.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 9:13:09 GMT -5
Jayson Stark ?@jaysonst 20m
An exec for AL contender says he's relieved Cespedes won't be digging into box for A's in Oct: "I fear that guy every time he gets to plate"
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 1, 2014 9:38:13 GMT -5
Can always trade that pick too this winter as a sweetener to a larger package too. Competitive balance picks can only be traded once, because MLB like making stupid, arbitrary rules that restrict markets.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 10:46:23 GMT -5
Steamer Projections @steamerpro
Cespedes in Oakland: .259/.315/.455 ... in Boston: .276/.328/.492
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 1, 2014 11:47:02 GMT -5
The interesting question about the Lester trade, to which we will never know the answer, is "Did the Sox turn down a 'better' offer from another team that might have had the $$$ to extend/resign Lester in order to take the best deal from a team with NO chance to keep him after this fall?"
Of course, 'better' might be an elusive concept if other offers were more prospect-oriented.
The answer to that question would be key to determining how seriously the Sox might be thinking about resigning Lester this winter. Why would they turn down a better offer from someone else if they weren't serious about taking a run at bringing Lester back?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 11:57:35 GMT -5
Can always trade that pick too this winter as a sweetener to a larger package too. Competitive balance picks can only be traded once, because MLB like making stupid, arbitrary rules that restrict markets. Jeez. Can we end Bud Selig already?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 11:57:53 GMT -5
I like Cespedes and think he's going to help this offense tremendously. I'm not sure its fair to say he's regressed. His first year was somewhat inflated due to some BABIP luck and his second year he battled injuries. I think over a full year as a Red Sox Cespedes will hit around .280/.330/.500. This would make him similar to what Ryan Braun has done this year - about a 130 wRC+ First, he hits a ton of infield fly balls, which (as jmei pointed out) will likely mean fewer foul outs moving from the Coliseum to Fenway. On top of that, he's had a drop in HR/FB this year that should regress. Add in the fact that he has good pull power and the monster should help him turn fly outs into doubles. Players in Cespedes' mold have a history of tearing it up here. Jmei's IFFB point was great. I looked up Jaso and Crisp's IFFB rates, they jumped 4-5% when they went to Oakland. It isn't completely consistent data, with up and down years in that department, but to me it's pretty clear that if you're a guy like Cespedes who hits a ton of IFFB, switching to a place like Fenway will definitely help a lot.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 12:05:28 GMT -5
Steamer Projections @steamerpro Cespedes in Oakland: .259/.315/.455 ... in Boston: .276/.328/.492 If that's what he is next year I'll be the one leading the charge to re-sign him.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 1, 2014 12:32:23 GMT -5
@dszymborski: Rest-of-season ZiPS for Cespedes in Boston is 274/326/483. His 2015 projection is very close to that - 274/327/486, 3.2 WAR.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 12:43:56 GMT -5
Some posters compare Cespedes with Napoli, but I think the acquisition should be viewed from the perspective of the future of Ortiz. When Ortiz retires (likely after 2016 season) Sox will need a legit clean up hitter. Cespedes is a candidate. While we all love Stanton, it really would be folly for the Sox to plan to acquire him.
Guidas' point about Cespedes contract is significant, but we should keep in mind Cespedes isn't available unless the smaller market A's have a problem with his contract. The Sox used its financial might to take advantage, which is precisely as it should be. As for Cespedes' contract, Napoli at $18 million is off the books as Cepedes' extension would begin, which is nice fit. In addition, Victorino at $13 Million comes off the books at the same time and Ortiz comes off the books 12 months later.
A big contract for Cespedes will be light lifting for the Sox if Cespedes does what I think he will do. The Lester deal could not have been executed any better by BC.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 13:16:25 GMT -5
Meanwhile Rob Neyer aptly reflects my current read on Cespedes: www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/news-flash-red-sox-know-what-they-re-doing-080114Excerpt: Yes, he's exciting. Yes, he's got a bunch of nifty tools. Yes, he's really great at Home Run Derby. He's just not really great at baseball, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage over these last two seasons. Cespedes looks to me like a good player whose career peak came two years ago, when he was 26. Which is not an uncommon thing.So, at least I'm not the only one who thinks he's basically Jonny Gomes with a better defensive tool kit who is in decline.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 13:19:14 GMT -5
Anyone who cites Cespedes' success in the Home Run derby as a predictor of the success of an MLB player is being silly. Remember Terrence Stansbury and Dee Brown won the NBA slam dunk contest.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 13:21:21 GMT -5
Meanwhile Rob Neyer aptly reflects my current read on Cespedes: www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/news-flash-red-sox-know-what-they-re-doing-080114Excerpt: Yes, he's exciting. Yes, he's got a bunch of nifty tools. Yes, he's really great at Home Run Derby. He's just not really great at baseball, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage over these last two seasons. Cespedes looks to me like a good player whose career peak came two years ago, when he was 26. Which is not an uncommon thing.So, at least I'm not the only one who thinks he's basically Jonny Gomes with a better defensive tool kit who is in decline. Neyer does not even consider that Cespedes is a power hitter playing in the middle of Yosemite National Park in Oakland. A pretty lazy piece by Neyer.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 1, 2014 13:21:40 GMT -5
Some posters compare Cespedes with Napoli, but I think the acquisition should be viewed from the perspective of the future of Ortiz. When Ortiz retires (likely after 2016 season) Sox will need a legit clean up hitter. Cespedes is a candidate. ... I like Cespedes a whole lot more as a #5 or #6 hitter than as a cleanup hitter (which I guess means I'd like for us to have five hitters better than Cespedes).
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 13:31:37 GMT -5
To be fair, Jonny Gomes minus the terrible platoon splits and plus above-average defense is a pretty great player. I'm not sure that's the ringing indictment you mean it to be.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 1, 2014 13:37:31 GMT -5
I get the the Napoli comment and even think Cespedes's numbers will be a little better going forward than Napoli but to me it should be close. That is pretty solid right there. I'd be trying to extend him already. That's how confident I am for his future as a Fenway mainstay.
But to me, Craig is the guy who might well replace Napoli. 1st base is his thing. And he is relatively cost controlled through 2018. He is what Abreu could have been for us. A cost controlled, middle of the order bat through 2018 ( Abreu could have been a little longer ).
Both of these guys could have tremendous upside for us with a little luck.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 13:38:50 GMT -5
If Cespedes puts up better numbers than Napoli I'll be psyched.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 13:40:15 GMT -5
I don't think that's the right comp. Napoli gets on base a lot more than Cespedes, with similar power. Even giving Yoenis a Fenway bump, Nap should be a better hitter.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 13:51:25 GMT -5
I don't think that's the right comp. Napoli gets on base a lot more than Cespedes, with similar power. Even giving Yoenis a Fenway bump, Nap should be a better hitter. Agreed. I mean I could see Cespedes possibly matching Napoli's production if all goes well, but Nap is pretty damn good.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 13:55:38 GMT -5
Meanwhile Rob Neyer aptly reflects my current read on Cespedes: www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/news-flash-red-sox-know-what-they-re-doing-080114Excerpt: Yes, he's exciting. Yes, he's got a bunch of nifty tools. Yes, he's really great at Home Run Derby. He's just not really great at baseball, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage over these last two seasons. Cespedes looks to me like a good player whose career peak came two years ago, when he was 26. Which is not an uncommon thing.So, at least I'm not the only one who thinks he's basically Jonny Gomes with a better defensive tool kit who is in decline. Neyer does not even consider that Cespedes is a power hitter playing in the middle of Yosemite National Park in Oakland. A pretty lazy piece by Neyer. I'm sure Fenway will help him but his road splits are worse than his home splits. I know some folks discount such splits when it doesn't support their point and pimp them when they do. Personally, I just see them as data points (except in Colorado - where I do feel like they are overtly inflated) that gets considered with everything else. If Steamer numbers posted earlier turn out to be close to accurate I'll be elated and become a big fan. I do predict that if he plays tonight he'll crush a home run over the monster. Just seems to happen so often when we pick up a hyped guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 14:00:18 GMT -5
I don't think that's the right comp. Napoli gets on base a lot more than Cespedes, with similar power. Even giving Yoenis a Fenway bump, Nap should be a better hitter. He'll definitely hit more dingers so the chicks will love him.
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