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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 14:05:48 GMT -5
I cannot find that article about RH flyball hitters in Fenway. It's almost the same effect as Coors Field.
FWIW, Napoli has hit 38.8 and 35.6% FB in last two years. Not good. Cespedes has 45.6 and 50.2%.
Cespedes also pops out a lot since he's a FB hitter. His IFFB% is 14.3 for his career. Now I'm betting the move from Oakland to Fenway will help him a lot more than other hitters because of foul territory. Park factors are averaged for all batters, but Cespedes should take much more advantage of Fenway than the typical batter moving from Oakland to Fenway precisely because he pops up more and hits more fly balls.
I'm not sure how Steamer does projections and whether it accounts for his batted ball stats and spray charts and park factors based on each type of batted ball, but if they don't, I'm taking the over on his projections.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 14:06:49 GMT -5
Guidas: You would be well advised to listen to Mike Hazen's interview with Dennis & Callahan this a.m., in which you will learn the Sox did thorough due diligence for the past month. You may also consider that the sox actually know how to scout and analyze player performance, and you don't. Rest assured, the Red Sox are aware of the splits.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 1, 2014 14:33:47 GMT -5
...Well he has regressed since his stellar rookie year, with this year - so far - being more like year 2 than year 1. Nope. Here's his year-by-year OPS+ normalized by BABIP: Year | OPS+/BABIP | 2012 | 426 | 2013 | 376 | 2014 | 410 |
This year is definitely more like his first year.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 14:36:10 GMT -5
The tidbit about fly ball hitters in Fenway was from the Tony Blengino article on Lester, IIRC. Fenway inflates fly ball production by 50%, and Cespedes is certainly a FB hitter. I agree that Fenway will help him a ton.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Aug 1, 2014 14:37:12 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 14:52:18 GMT -5
I cannot find that article about RH flyball hitters in Fenway. It's almost the same effect as Coors Field. FWIW, Napoli has hit 38.8 and 35.6% FB in last two years. Not good. Cespedes has 45.6 and 50.2%. Cespedes also pops out a lot since he's a FB hitter. His IFFB% is 14.3 for his career. Now I'm betting the move from Oakland to Fenway will help him a lot more than other hitters because of foul territory. Park factors are averaged for all batters, but Cespedes should take much more advantage of Fenway than the typical batter moving from Oakland to Fenway precisely because he pops up more and hits more fly balls. I'm not sure how Steamer does projections and whether it accounts for his batted ball stats and spray charts and park factors based on each type of batted ball, but if they don't, I'm taking the over on his projections. Can anyone find an overlay of Fenway with his current spray chart? I used to know the site for this but I lost it when my computer got fried.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 1, 2014 15:03:31 GMT -5
Only actual HRs are shown, but you can imagine there's some room for some more in LF.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 15:04:56 GMT -5
That's just the home runs.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 15:14:01 GMT -5
Right. I've seen that one. I thought there was a site that applied all parks to the full spray chart.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 17:10:19 GMT -5
I'm still looking for this data, but I read that he would have had 24 HR instead of 17 if he played his home games at Fenway this year. That doesn't sound right, but maybe.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 1, 2014 17:21:18 GMT -5
This is only balls hit at home, but I count 18 HRs instead of 11 and he has 6 on the road this year so that would be 24
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 17:34:34 GMT -5
...Well he has regressed since his stellar rookie year, with this year - so far - being more like year 2 than year 1. Nope. Here's his year-by-year OPS+ normalized by BABIP: Year | OPS+/BABIP | 2012 | 426 | 2013 | 376 | 2014 | 410 |
This year is definitely more like his first year. Here's hoping,
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 17:41:19 GMT -5
I'm still looking for this data, but I read that he would have had 24 HR instead of 17 if he played his home games at Fenway this year. That doesn't sound right, but maybe. Found this: katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/Counting 20 HRs vs 11
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 17:52:06 GMT -5
I'm still looking for this data, but I read that he would have had 24 HR instead of 17 if he played his home games at Fenway this year. That doesn't sound right, but maybe. Found this: katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/Counting 20 HRs vs 11 What the hell is Oakland's park called? O.co Coliseum and Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum aren't in the list. I'm going crazy. Thanks for finding that.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 17:54:21 GMT -5
McAphee - i didn't know either.
Couldn't get his individual link to copy on the iphone.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 17:59:21 GMT -5
yep, I got 9 extra in Fenway
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 18:09:55 GMT -5
2013 Allen Craig has 8 more, and 3 beyond that that are borderline, btw.
I could run names with this thing all night.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 18:13:14 GMT -5
But this probably doesn't factor the height of the wall. Still encouraging.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 18:28:02 GMT -5
True, but if you start overlaying nl central parks with AL East parks and 2013 Craig, combined with his Busch BBIP and he starts to look like much more of a power threat.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 1, 2014 18:41:10 GMT -5
What the hell is Oakland's park called? O.co Coliseum and Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum aren't in the list. I'm going crazy. Thanks for finding that. I spent a solid 10 minutes trying to figure this out...
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 18:53:33 GMT -5
But this probably doesn't factor the height of the wall. Still encouraging. Was just going to post this. Tough to do home run extrapolation based on 2D overlays alone.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 18:55:38 GMT -5
But this probably doesn't factor the height of the wall. Still encouraging. Was just going to post this. Tough to do home run extrapolation based on 2D overlays alone. Well the fact that he's a fly ball hitter and not a line drive hitter, it might be less of an issue.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 1, 2014 18:59:51 GMT -5
Cespedes 2013 difference: Between 4-7 pop outs that would have gone foul 5-6 fly outs that would have been HRs 1-2 singles that would have been HRs 3-4 doubles that would have been HRs 3 triples that would have been HRs
If we assume 25% of the pop outs that went foul would have ended up as hits you get: 6 to 8 more hits 12-15 more home runs
Some of the home runs would have been off the monster, but even if its half that he is a monster in Fenway. The extra hits are worth about 15-points in batting average.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 19:03:36 GMT -5
Was just going to post this. Tough to do home run extrapolation based on 2D overlays alone. Well the fact that he's a fly ball hitter and not a line drive hitter, it might be less of an issue. Eh, a lot of fly balls become doubles in Fenway that would be home runs elsewhere. Fenway actually suppresses right-handed-hitters' home runs relative to the average park (but massively inflates doubles).
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 1, 2014 21:53:43 GMT -5
year-by-year OPS+ normalized by BABIP: What the...?!? Who thinks up these gibberish stats?
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