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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2014 15:41:29 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 24, 2014 18:01:03 GMT -5
they use that in scouting?
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 24, 2014 18:14:29 GMT -5
they use that in scouting? The ghost of Isaac Hayes was the scout.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 24, 2014 20:28:35 GMT -5
If the Shane Victorino comp is fair and we are looking at 24.9 fWAR over the next six years (as compared to Victorino's 2008 - 2013) Then this will look like a steal.
I'm just hoping he draws enough walks to make use of his speed on the bases and compensate for his questionable contact ability.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 24, 2014 22:04:00 GMT -5
...The ghost of Isaac Hayes Curtis Mayfield was the scout.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 24, 2014 22:08:32 GMT -5
...The ghost of Isaac Hayes Curtis Mayfield was the scout.
I should've known that would be an actual song. I'm a little young to remember it coming out, though.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 24, 2014 22:16:20 GMT -5
Also WTH?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 24, 2014 22:16:46 GMT -5
Curtis Mayfield is up there on a higher plane, along with Marvin Gaye, and maybe Sly Stone. Then there's everybody else. This isn't the title track, though. It's one called Freddy's Dead. You'll want to listen - closely. Mayfield was a poet, in every sense of the word. The music he wrote is the best part of the movie.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 24, 2014 22:21:07 GMT -5
If the Shane Victorino comp is fair and we are looking at 24.9 fWAR over the next six years (as compared to Victorino's 2008 - 2013) Then this will look like a steal. I'm just hoping he draws enough walks to make use of his speed on the bases and compensate for his questionable contact ability. That's the big issue, I think. If he can make enough contact to overcome the low OBP, he'll be a good piece to have on the team. Otherwise, he might have that number hovering around .300, but with less power than, say, Cespedes. That looks less appealing. I think his value will be driven by his BA, and that can be really variable.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 24, 2014 22:39:24 GMT -5
I don't think there's a ton of downside in the deal, presuming the reports about his defense and speed are correct, and assuming he can at least post a .300 OBP. At that, there probably isn't any surplus value, but given the contracts that are now given out to mid-level hitters, it's a movable deal down the line unless his bat doesn't play whatsoever
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 24, 2014 23:31:31 GMT -5
Curtis Mayfield is up there on a higher plane, along with Marvin Gaye, and maybe Sly Stone. Then there's everybody else. This isn't the title track, though. It's one called Freddy's Dead. You'll want to listen - closely. Mayfield was a poet, in every sense of the word. The music he wrote is the best part of the movie. You forgot Sam Cooke (Nobody Knows the Trouble that I've Seen still is the most haunting vocal performance I know) and Otis Redding. Other than that, that's just a terrific post.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 25, 2014 3:46:06 GMT -5
I know there is no rumor at all of Castillo at SS or 3rd but he seemed like he might be acceptable at 3rd to me. At least as a possible option. He has added bulk and may not be as good in CF going forward. Maybe RF but that OF sure is looking crowded. I think someone almost definitely gets moved.
Mookie would seem to be an option at 3rd also. But they haven't played him there a single minute.
I have no idea who gets traded but it would seem that Middlebrooks, Nava and JBJ are all on the block. With not all that much return value potentially. I hate selling low this much.
Outfielders:
Cespedes Craig Victorino jBj Betts Holt Castillo Nava
To me they really have to have slots for Cespedes and Craig and I would think Castillo but the guy who actually might put up the best overall numbers might be Betts. When they can actually put Victorino on the field he seems to produce extremely well. What about him if he actually does come back but I want to find a way for Betts to be a starter on this team as of now. That guy looks absolutely for real. And we would waste Nava and be extremely right handed with this configuration. Wouldn't it make sense to keep one of the few good LH hitters we have left? To me, the logical solution is Holt as the middle infield sub and Betts is great depth at CF and RF and a near ideal 4th OF. Good speed off the bench. Positional flexibility.
But if Betts is a stud as he certainly appears to be he needs to be a starter. So a starter might well be the guy traded. But they can also park him in AAA as injury depth. But what a waste if he is ready, as he definitely seems to be to me.
I think they try to extend Cespedes but if they can't this winter he's gone baby gone. In a way Castillo is Cespedes insurance as much as JBJ insurance. I think they park JBJ in AAA and end up trading at least one OF.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 25, 2014 9:11:57 GMT -5
You don't just move a 27yo OF into the IF. Period. When was the last time you can recall any out-fielder being moved to the infield, at any level?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 25, 2014 9:29:37 GMT -5
You don't just move a 27yo OF into the IF. Period. When was the last time you can recall any out-fielder being moved to the infield, at any level? It has worked out alright for Matt Carpenter on the Cardinals. Castillo is a 2B who was shifted to the OF because there wasn't a spot on his team as 2B - just like Mookie. So I don't see how this is different.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 25, 2014 10:07:45 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel writes about the consensus scouting grades. Average hit, average power, but considerable uncertainty (aka nobody knows).
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Post by godot on Aug 25, 2014 10:50:17 GMT -5
Sounds about right, but the Sox say they have been following him for some time. One would expect that they can judge his baseball skills.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 25, 2014 11:52:32 GMT -5
This is my first post on this topic since the signing, and I really am not trying to start a fist fight with any of you, but based on the scouting reports doesn't he sound like a similar player to BJ Upton? Contracts are similar, 7 years against 5, but one of those years is 2014, so basically 1 extra year at similar total dollars.
I am very hesitant to say I like this signing. I don't think there is much evidence that would suggest this guy could handle MLB pitching better than JBJ would. Although I do like the signing when I compare it to the available talent pool, and I like that we "added talent" through a payroll only transaction, which is where we have advantages over other teams.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2014 12:22:02 GMT -5
You don't just move a 27yo OF into the IF. Period. When was the last time you can recall any out-fielder being moved to the infield, at any level? It has worked out alright for Matt Carpenter on the Cardinals. Castillo is a 2B who was shifted to the OF because there wasn't a spot on his team as 2B - just like Mookie. So I don't see how this is different. Of questionable relevance, but I've got a subscription to b-ref's Play Index and I was curious: Just in this century, there have been 23 seasons where a player started 10 or more games at both 3B and CF while playing more often than not (350+ PA). Rob Mackowiak, Ryan Freel, and Chone Figgins did it three times, Jose Macias, Brandon Inge, and Emilio Bonifacio did it twice, and Denny Hocking, Jose Valentin, Mark McLemore, Jose Bautista, Alfredo Amezaga, Willie Harris, and Jerry Hairston did it once. And Brock Holt. Folks can look up their careers, but I think you'll find that almost every player who split time between the OF and skill INF started out as an infielder. In fact, a decent percentage of MLB OFers were originally infielders despite never having played an inning there in MLB.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 25, 2014 12:43:47 GMT -5
You don't just move a 27yo OF into the IF. Period. When was the last time you can recall any out-fielder being moved to the infield, at any level? It has worked out alright for Matt Carpenter on the Cardinals. Carpenter was never really an outfielder. Games in the minors by position: 3B: 322 1B: 3 OF: 3 Majors: 3B: 207 2B: 137 1B: 46 OF: 25 He's played less innings in the outfield in his career than Kevin Youkilis. Skip Schumaker comes to mind as a career outfielder who started playing a significant amount of second base during his age-29 season. He's racked up almost 500 games at 2B over the years, but he's borderline atrocious there.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 25, 2014 13:11:36 GMT -5
I've heard Victorino and McCutchen comparisons, but then I see posters on here saying he'll be lucky to have a .300 OBP. If he's Michael Bourn I'm not too thrilled with this pickup. If he's McCutchen it's a steal.
Of course, the comparison to McCutchen came from WEEI so take that with a grain of salt.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 25, 2014 13:29:33 GMT -5
If he's a Brett Gardner type or better then he's worth the money, WAR-wise.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,991
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Post by jimoh on Aug 25, 2014 13:31:12 GMT -5
It has worked out alright for Matt Carpenter on the Cardinals. Carpenter was never really an outfielder. Games in the minors by position: 3B: 322 1B: 3 OF: 3 Majors: 3B: 207 2B: 137 1B: 46 OF: 25 He's played less innings in the outfield in his career than Kevin Youkilis. Skip Schumaker comes to mind as a career outfielder who started playing a significant amount of second base during his age-29 season. He's racked up almost 500 games at 2B over the years, but he's borderline atrocious there. Pete Rose played 2b and other positions at first, then OF for 8-9 years, then 3b in his 30s for a few years, then 1b for a few more. But there is nothing in the scouting reports for Castillo that suggests he would be an acceptable 3b except in an emergency.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 25, 2014 13:38:18 GMT -5
This year we paid Drew $10 million (prorated portion of 14.1M, minus of course the part that the Yankees absorbed) so I imagine paying roughly that amount for Castillo, given each year's inflation is tolerable at worst.
$10-$12 million in 2019-2020 dollars probably isn't that big of a deal for a team like the Red Sox.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 25, 2014 14:03:22 GMT -5
If he's Michael Bourn I'm not too thrilled with this pickup. Michael Bourn ages 27-32 bWAR: 5.5, 3.1, 6.1, 1.9, 0.2*, tbd If Bourn is replacement level next season he still comes out to ~ 18 WAR over that time, or 3 WAR/yr. Brett Gardner ages 27-32: 4.1, 0.2^, 4.0, 4.1*, tbd, tbd ^ injured If Castillo matches the value of either of those players he'll be a bargain. The signing is a risk, but a risk on a player's prime years at a reasonable AAV compared to a free agent signing.
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Post by caseytins on Aug 25, 2014 22:44:34 GMT -5
He's just another asset. Personally, I love the deal. $59mil guaranteed at an AAV around $10mil without giving up any prospects. We will all have to wait and see how it plays out.
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