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Post by zil on Aug 25, 2014 23:28:07 GMT -5
The McCutchen comparison I read was about his body-type, not his baseball skills. It was a comment on how he's 5'10", but packed with muscle.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 26, 2014 5:02:53 GMT -5
The McCutchen comparison I read was about his body-type, not his baseball skills. It was a comment on how he's 5'10", but packed with muscle. And speed?
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Post by zil on Aug 26, 2014 14:31:12 GMT -5
Well yeah, but the main point was that you shouldn't expect him to produce those shiny .400 OBPs like McCutchen.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 26, 2014 16:29:28 GMT -5
Davenport hates him, this scout loves him, that scout hates him... It's completely foggy. Just have to hope our evaluators are right about him. I can't wait for him to get started so we can relax on the speculation.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2014 16:37:46 GMT -5
Eno Sarris @enosarris · Aug 20 Rusney Castillo hit .332/.401/.545 with 16 HR & 22 sB in 2013. Huzzah! The Davenport Translation on that is .237/.276/.390 9HR/15SB. Egads! Eno Sarris @enosarris · 3h Castillo for $12m/yr? His best year in Cuba translates to .220/.247/.362 in America & Davenport has been fairly money So he would have had to hit .420/.540/.700 in Cuba to be worth this contract? Yeah, that seems fair. Also, isn't the Cuban season much shorter, meaning you can't just compute a fraction of his 16 HR and 22 SB total in Cuba and call it the MLB equivalent? Ted Williams would have hit 1.100 in Cuba.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2014 16:52:28 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 26, 2014 16:54:54 GMT -5
I'm just hoping for a ~7% BB rate. Not sure how realistic that is. A good amount of his walks in Cuba were IBB.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 26, 2014 16:59:07 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. Yup, this. Leadoff is much more about OBP (specifically walking) than it is about speed, because the value of a walk is relatively the highest when the bases are empty. If Mookie isn't on this team, do we really have someone to lead off next year?
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 26, 2014 17:03:19 GMT -5
Davenport hates him, this scout loves him, that scout hates him... It's completely foggy. Just have to hope our evaluators are right about him. I can't wait for him to get started so we can relax on the speculation. It's better than one scout seeing him 5 years ago and everybody else rehashing what he saw then as their own opinion.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 26, 2014 17:16:20 GMT -5
So he would have had to hit .420/.540/.700 in Cuba to be worth this contract? Yeah, that seems fair. Also, isn't the Cuban season much shorter, meaning you can't just compute a fraction of his 16 HR and 22 SB total in Cuba and call it the MLB equivalent? Ted Williams would have hit 1.100 in Cuba. Probably so but he would never have qualified for the batting title because he would have walked 200 times/season...not enough official at bats.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 26, 2014 17:54:56 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 26, 2014 18:02:46 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. I hope the manager learns not to lead him off.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2014 18:18:56 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. I hope the manager learns not to lead him off. We have a pretty good idea of what the answer is there.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 26, 2014 19:52:07 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. Why else would we pay Castillo 70 million dollars? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 26, 2014 20:49:12 GMT -5
Why else would we pay Castillo 70 million dollars? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point. And I am sure that Cherington is resigned to the fact that JF is going to put out unoptimized lineups anyway and doesn't actually give a damn whether someone profiles as a "leadoff hitter" according to baseball superstition.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 26, 2014 22:16:03 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. Why else would we pay Castillo 70 million dollars? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point. Are you saying the Sox paid Castillo $70 million, so therefore he must lead off? And let's ignore the high probability that he's not an OBP kind of guy? I don't blame the Sox for taking a chance on Castillo, but I can't help but think a year or two from now, we're going to be wondering why the Sox would go all out for Castillo but wouldn't blow away the field for Abreu. And we'd also wonder why the Sox thought Mookie Betts was interchangeable with Castillo and decided to deal him and watch another team reap the benefit of Mookie being the leadoff hitter that Castillo probably won't be. I hope I'm very wrong about the paragraph above just like I was wrong about Shane Victorino in 2013. I just can't shake the feeling that we're talking about a guy who barely walked in Cuba, meaning that he might be the kind of guy who walks 25 times in 600 plate appearances. So that would mean he'd have to hit .300 to maintain a near league average OBP. Otherwise we're looking at a sub-.300 OBP. So to make up for that he'd have to slug the ball like Cespedes and it seems there's a lot of disagreement from scouts regarding that. A Ron Gant comparison conjures up a decent BA, low walk total, mediocre OBP, but good speed and very good RH power. That's where I have trouble believing that he's going to be a 20 - 30 HR/year type hitter. His track record doesn't indicate that and I have trouble believing that he now has this new ripped body so he's suddenly going to have Ron Gant power. I think he's more likely a 10 - 15 HR/year type player. I think the realistic best case scenario is that he's Shane Victorino circa 2013 (and if he is that $70 million was well spent), but more likely he's a low OBP, mediocre SA guy with good speed that can steal 30 and play decent defensively. I just hope that the Sox don't push Betts out of the way now that Castillo has the CF job for the foreseeable future.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 26, 2014 22:40:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Mookie straight up for Castillo right now. I'm not even sure if I would trade Mookie for anyone on the Redsox team right now. That's how highly I look at Mookie. The guy finds ways to win games. Those 6 years of relatively cheap control are worth a lot for a guy who is talented in so many ways.
Mookie's gotta play. It's axiomatic. Apriori logic in it's purest form.
I'm looking at fangraphs and kind of wondering how it could be. Would he be worth 2.1 WAR already if he were even an average defender?
It is amazing how much impact base running skill can add to a players value. Something I think we often understate.
The guy is already producing offensively. Mookie has a BAPIP of only .273 but he has a wRC+ of 113.
I get that the defense is not there yet but would he not be putting up great numbers already if he were a 2nd baseman? He's be a 2.3-2.5 WAR guy already as a 2nd baseman in my opinion.
Look at how many times he has impacted the games. Getting on base. Stealing bases. Stopping that force out at 2nd tonight.
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Post by cologneredsox on Aug 27, 2014 5:07:57 GMT -5
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Post by tonyc on Aug 27, 2014 13:20:30 GMT -5
Soxchamps and Lavarnway,
I have shared your concerns about trading Mookie, particularly within the context of that wonderful Grantland article- I really like Betts, and even when he pops up you can see the batspeed. I would hope they keep him and Castillo both (and Castillo is a great mystery). If they do trade Mookie, ( Ben has shown to be quite shrewd overall) they hopefully get a good return- perhaps not a full return for his huge potential, but one well placed for their needs.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 27, 2014 14:02:39 GMT -5
Are we really sure that a ~.300 OBP guy is going to be leading off next year? I hope he learns how to walk pretty fast. Why else would we pay Castillo 70 million dollars? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point. Let me be clear. I don't think Cherrington is that stupid, or the manager I'd hope. This isn't 1970 and unless you've been sleeping for 10 years, that is to say through those 3 WS titles, letting anyone with a .300 on-base percentage get anywhere near the leadoff spot is a ticket to a quick exit - for you and the team. That would be such a costly mistake that no amount of Cuban hot-shot buzz would overcome it. Now, if he can get anywhere near Ellsbury's medicocre OBP - but one propped up with good contact and lots of speed - it's a different story. That's a stretch I believe. And goetze, you don't know squat about what does or does not go through Cherrington's mind, or what sort of baseball chops he has. If the idea that he "doesn't give a damn" is some sort of joke, use italics please.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 27, 2014 15:22:39 GMT -5
Umm, I wouldn't read into any Cuban stats whatsoever.
Jose Abreu was supposed to be a high contact, high walk, moderate power kinda guy. In the 2012/13 Serie Nacional season he had 37 walks in 42 games. The year before he had 75 walks in 87 games. This year in MLB he has 37 walks in 116 games.
Additionally; our very own Cespedes currentlyl averages about 40 walks/130 games, but in Cuba averaged the exact same # of walks in 3/4s of a season.
I for one choose to wait until we actually see Castillo's style of play.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2014 15:23:18 GMT -5
And goetze, you don't know squat about what does or does not go through Cherrington's mind, or what sort of baseball chops he has. Well, neither does redsox4242... Uhm, just to avoid any misunderstandings... you did read the entire sentence including the last word? No, I don't know Ben Cherington personally. But it seems pretty clear to me that he knows enough about baseball analytics to be able to draw some of the more obvious conclusions, for instance that it doesn't actually matter all that much how good your leadoff hitter is at stealing bases or how good your #2 hitter is at bunting.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 27, 2014 15:40:56 GMT -5
And goetze, you don't know squat about what does or does not go through Cherrington's mind, or what sort of baseball chops he has. Well, neither does redsox4242... When did i say i did? I have no idea what cherington is thinking. quite frankly, who does? why you throwing me under the bus?, and just throwing ideas out their to get opinions and thoughts. I am a diehard red sox fan just like everyone else is here. so chill out.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 27, 2014 15:57:04 GMT -5
Why else would we pay Castillo 70 million dollars? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point. Let me be clear. I don't think Cherrington is that stupid, or the manager I'd hope. This isn't 1970 and unless you've been sleeping for 10 years, that is to say through those 3 WS titles, letting anyone with a .300 on-base percentage get anywhere near the leadoff spot is a ticket to a quick exit - for you and the team. That would be such a costly mistake that no amount of Cuban hot-shot buzz would overcome it. Now, if he can get anywhere near Ellsbury's medicocre OBP - but one propped up with good contact and lots of speed - it's a different story. That's a stretch I believe. And goetze, you don't know squat about what does or does not go through Cherrington's mind, or what sort of baseball chops he has. If the idea that he "doesn't give a damn" is some sort of joke, use italics please. As you mentioned, If Castillo does indeed have the speed of lets say a Willy Taveras? Who has a career 320 OBP. Stole 33 bases or more for 4 straight seasons, and had a 68 SB's in 2008 with Colorado. Thats lots of speed, as you mentioned. And i am sure Castillo has more ability then Willy Taveras had, especially in the Home Run department, then Castillo will indeed leadoff he has that type of speed, and a mediocre OBP of 320. Juan Pierre is another player that compares with Castillo, doesn't walk to often (career 343 OBP) but was a good hitter who had great speed. If Castillo has the type of career Pierre had, i think we would all be ecstatic. Castillo will hit for more power then Willy Taveras or Juan Pierre.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2014 16:03:18 GMT -5
When did i say i did? I have no idea what cherington is thinking. quite frankly, who does? eventually, i am sure Cherington expected Castillo will leadoff at some point.
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