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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 24, 2015 13:29:10 GMT -5
"Kiley McDaniel Tate, Matuella and Bickford if you include JC, probably Buehler if you don't. Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores Who are the top 3 college arms as of right now? The performances may have changed these rankings" From his chat today. Also interesting from the chat: Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores I have seen your previous rankings for the upcoming draft. What are your thoughts on Bergmann and Swanson at this point of the Spring? Kiley McDaniel: Bregman has held his mid 1st round spot and I think he’s got a better chance to play SS than most. Swanson has risen and probably doesn’t get out of the top 5-7 picks. Earlier from Callis: Jim Callis @jimcallismlb · 3h 3 hours ago Guessing...maybe Kirby & Swanson? @texanfan2785: w/@astros having 2nd and 5th pick plus most allocated money, which direction...? @mlbdraft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2015 13:38:55 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 15:27:22 GMT -5
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before, please excuse me if it has, but is there any legitimate reason why Aiken's value would have dropped from last year? It seemed like his hype from last year labeled him as one of the best high school pitchers ever drafted (if he signed). I don't see anything drastic that changed from last year that would dethrone him as the favorite to go #1.
Is he realistically available at #7? (Man I hope so)
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 24, 2015 15:37:35 GMT -5
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before, please excuse me if it has, but is there any legitimate reason why Aiken's value would have dropped from last year? It seemed like his hype from last year labeled him as one of the best high school pitchers ever drafted (if he signed). I don't see anything drastic that changed from last year that would dethrone him as the favorite to go #1. Is he realistically available at #7? (Man I hope so) The undersized UCL means his elbow is almost certainly going to blow out. The recovery rate for TJ surgery is quite good but there's just that much more risk now. Giolito, in a similar situation, fell all the way to #16 - though an argument that Aiken is better than Giolito was at the same point is totally fair.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 24, 2015 15:38:45 GMT -5
I'm not sure if this has been discussed before, please excuse me if it has, but is there any legitimate reason why Aiken's value would have dropped from last year? It seemed like his hype from last year labeled him as one of the best high school pitchers ever drafted (if he signed). I don't see anything drastic that changed from last year that would dethrone him as the favorite to go #1. Is he realistically available at #7? (Man I hope so) The reasons are almost 100% injury related. The injury concerns are why the Astros ended up offering him less money. There are rumors (although nothing official) that he hasn't been 100% healthy all off season and into his first official start...which he left after throwing 12 pitches. The trouble with drafting him 1-1 is whether you will have access to his medical records and can make the assessment on what his long-term health is: does he need to rest, have TJ surgery, or is this a significant long-term concern? Again, we don't know the complete story behind him, but it sounds like whatever team drafts him would be taking the chance that he can recover from whatever is affecting him currently. There are a lot of boom or bust (high risk, high reward) type players at the top of the draft this year: Matuella (health), Buehler (size, injury), Aiken & Funkhouser (Control/command), Tate (track record/experience). I could see a scenario where a handful of the top teams get the player they viewed as #1 on their board based on how they assessed the risk. EDIT: James beat me to it (and was more specific). The UCL is definitely the concern but it seems as though there is some murkiness as to his current health.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2015 16:51:06 GMT -5
Also, don't forget that dropping to #7 is really like dropping to #5 in his case, given the two Houston picks and likelihood he's not going to agree to be redrafted by them.
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nomar
Veteran
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Post by nomar on Mar 24, 2015 21:25:15 GMT -5
Lot of good options will be there for us it seems. I just don't want to end up with Funkhouser. I'd prefer Tate, Kirby or Aiken.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 24, 2015 21:40:36 GMT -5
Lot of good options will be there for us it seems. I just don't want to end up with Funkhouser. I'd prefer Tate, Kirby or Aiken. I know this has been said a lot, but right now I'd be surprised to see Tate and Kirby last past the top five, and I could see them going one-two.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2015 7:53:05 GMT -5
Lot of good options will be there for us it seems. I just don't want to end up with Funkhouser. I'd prefer Tate, Kirby or Aiken. I know this has been said a lot, but right now I'd be surprised to see Tate and Kirby last past the top five, and I could see them going one-two. Yeah it appears that way right now. But lets say that does happen. This really isn't in order per say: 1. Tate 2. Kirby 3. Rodgers 4. Matuella 5. Swanson Rodgers should go top 5. He has a very good bat and a good shot at sticking at SS. I think he'll go top 3. Swanson has looked good at SS and there's a lot of talk of the Astros taking him at 5. Matuella has returned and looked like the top 5 pick he was thought to be. That would leave us with Aiken, Buehler, or Allard. Side note: Bickford is catching a good amount of helium too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 25, 2015 11:47:15 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Couple scouts told me Brendan Rodgers is scuffling. Hitting HRs, but more Ks than expected (vs low-80s velo). Same as Buxton/ARussell in HS.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Often, premium bat speed guys with lots of showcase ABs vs. 90 mph can't slow it down to hit slow HS pitching. Doesn't worry me at all.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2015 12:32:48 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Couple scouts told me Brendan Rodgers is scuffling. Hitting HRs, but more Ks than expected (vs low-80s velo). Same as Buxton/ARussell in HS. Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Often, premium bat speed guys with lots of showcase ABs vs. 90 mph can't slow it down to hit slow HS pitching. Doesn't worry me at all. Yeah I can't see him falling to us barring a very unfortunate injury or something. If he did I'd be all over him. Safer bet than pitchers although I know we are in more need of arms.
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Post by juniorp90 on Mar 25, 2015 13:08:13 GMT -5
about Dillon Tate:
Personal: Born on May 1, 1994 in Harbor City, Calif. to his parents Anthony and Lenora Tate … Currently resides in Claremont, Calif. … Has two older brothers: David and Douglas … Plans to major in communication … Favorite team is the Boston Red Sox…
Someone can show this to BenC?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 8:38:41 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 9:12:36 GMT -5
I expect we will see quite a bit of variance in each outlet's top 10. Seems like there are 10 or 12 players who truly belong at the top but there will be major differences in how they are ranked. I imagine others will have Kirby (and Funkhouser) ranked higher.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 9:15:14 GMT -5
I expect we will see quite a bit of variance in each outlet's top 10. Seems like there are 10 or 12 players who truly belong at the top but there will be major differences in how they are ranked. I imagine others will have Kirby (and Funkhouser) ranked higher. For discussion's sake, his next five were: Mentions that Funkhouser's got a plus-plus fastball and one of the best sliders in the class on his best days, but often has no idea where it's going. On Kirby, calls him the college LHP that moves up every year b/c of his advanced feel. "His change will flash plus-plus, and his fastball and slider are solid above-average offerings. The command isn’t always consistent though, so there’s a little more volatility here than you might expect from the “safe option.”"
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 26, 2015 10:58:57 GMT -5
I might be way wrong here but I'm thinking the original Tommy John, the one on Tommy himself, involved trading a ligament from the leg with the arm, not repairing the ligament in place. LOL, I might be way way off base here. They actually took out part of my achillies tendon for my tommy john. The new ligament is larger and stronger than before Tommy John is one of the miracles of modern sports medicine....however it is not a riskless proposition and players who need it, are recovering from it, or are at high risk for it, are worth less than they would be otherwise. There have been plenty of players who never return to their previous velocity, Ryan Masden being the most high profile example that comes to mind. Further, such a player would lose basically a year or more of development. That's pretty huge and decreases the value. The Red Sox after 7 won't pick again until 81, so they really need to hit on whom ever they pick at 7. Otherwise they risk completely whiffing on the 2015 draft. Without the ability to make large international signings, for the next two years and a likely international draft after that, not even a team with as deep a system as the Red Sox have can afford to take a year off from the draft.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 11:30:26 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Already hearing crazy rumors on players being targeted for deals in the top 10, one is a 2nd round talent. Weak year up top = lots of deals.
I hope the Sox don't go this route. It also could mean more talent falls to us.
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Post by bsout2 on Mar 26, 2015 11:40:34 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Already hearing crazy rumors on players being targeted for deals in the top 10, one is a 2nd round talent. Weak year up top = lots of deals. I hope the Sox don't go this route. It also could mean more talent falls to us. Don't think the Red Sox would benefit from going this route. Without a 2nd and 3rd round pick, you would need talent to drop pretty far in order to use the bonus money saved on the 1st pick.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 11:51:00 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Already hearing crazy rumors on players being targeted for deals in the top 10, one is a 2nd round talent. Weak year up top = lots of deals. I hope the Sox don't go this route. It also could mean more talent falls to us. Don't think the Red Sox would benefit from going this route. Without a 2nd and 3rd round pick, you would need talent to drop pretty far in order to use the bonus money saved on the 1st pick. Exactly, and it's not like the system is at a stage where it needs to add quantity over quality. We have such a deep system as it is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 11:53:30 GMT -5
Could see the Astros doing this - they can take one legit top-5 talent and STILL kick some money to later in the draft at 37 and 46. Have their cake and eat it too.
Also the Rockies. After 3, they have 27 (Cuddyer), 38 (CB), 44.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 26, 2015 11:53:50 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we still have our 3rd round pick but I agree we should go with the best talent available.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 11:56:23 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we still have our 3rd round pick but I agree we should go with the best talent available. Right, they lost the Competitive Balance pick from the Lester trade. Like you said, point stands.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 12:02:11 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 12:02:31 GMT -5
Could see the Astros doing this - they can take one legit top-5 talent and STILL kick some money to later in the draft at 37 and 46. Have their cake and eat it too. Also the Rockies. After 3, they have 27 (Cuddyer), 38 (CB), 44. The Astros definitely have a track record of doing this the past couple years (with varying amounts of success) and that's without having the two top 5 picks.
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Post by jmei on Mar 26, 2015 12:40:10 GMT -5
Could see the Astros doing this - they can take one legit top-5 talent and STILL kick some money to later in the draft at 37 and 46. Have their cake and eat it too. Also the Rockies. After 3, they have 27 (Cuddyer), 38 (CB), 44. The Astros definitely have a track record of doing this the past couple years (with varying amounts of success) and that's without having the two top 5 picks. But will they do so again after that strategy blew up in their face last year?
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