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Post by jimed14 on Mar 26, 2015 12:58:32 GMT -5
The Astros definitely have a track record of doing this the past couple years (with varying amounts of success) and that's without having the two top 5 picks. But will they do so again after that strategy blew up in their face last year? That wasn't really their strategy was it? I thought hey just tried to sign more guys they didn't plan to after reducing Aiken's bonus by a huge amount.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 26, 2015 13:03:21 GMT -5
I know we have been concentrating on pitchers and rightly so given that seems like the strength of the draft. But I don't think we should overlooked position players, specially if injuries continue to hit this draft.
A guy I'm keeping an eye on is Kyle Tucker an OF from Florida. In the Callis piece linked by Chris above the reports are that he is moving up. I believe he falls in the area of Tom Kotchman so that could be interesting.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 13:30:04 GMT -5
The Astros definitely have a track record of doing this the past couple years (with varying amounts of success) and that's without having the two top 5 picks. But will they do so again after that strategy blew up in their face last year? It's a legit question. You would think that if they can nail down the bonus demands now then they won't run into last year's issues, but there is a lot of uncertainty with these pre-draft deals (players change their minds, medicals, etc.). Between their first two picks this year they will probably be able to spend close to $11 mil so I think it would be crazy for them not to at least entertain the possibility of using this strategy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 13:30:50 GMT -5
The Astros definitely have a track record of doing this the past couple years (with varying amounts of success) and that's without having the two top 5 picks. But will they do so again after that strategy blew up in their face last year? Didn't blow up in their face in 2012, when that was even more explicitly the strategy as opposed to last year, when Aiken, in theory, may have been their #1 either way.
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Post by jmei on Mar 26, 2015 13:38:03 GMT -5
But will they do so again after that strategy blew up in their face last year? That wasn't really their strategy was it? I thought hey just tried to sign more guys they didn't plan to after reducing Aiken's bonus by a huge amount. You're right, it's not exactly the same situation, but it does involve the same sort of draft-pool-allocation machinations (e.g., pay one guy less than slot in order to give another guy more than slot) that got them into trouble last year. To pull that sort of thing off, they need to reach relatively firm understandings with agents ahead of time, and either the Astros front office or the agents representing these guys might be a little less willing to cooperate on arranging that sort of thing after what happened with Aiken.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 26, 2015 14:12:46 GMT -5
What happens if they can't sign that #2 this year? They get the #3 next year? Imagine how freaked out this board would be if our front office was like that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 14:46:55 GMT -5
What happens if they can't sign that #2 this year? They get the #3 next year? Imagine how freaked out this board would be if our front office was like that. No. Use it or lose it in the second go-round, I think. Also, it's not like it's going back one pick. It's essentially pick #1a. That's why the team that should have #2 is at #3 and so forth. In theory, if they got it next year, they'd have pick #2 again.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 26, 2015 15:00:40 GMT -5
I know we have been concentrating on pitchers and rightly so given that seems like the strength of the draft. But I don't think we should overlooked position players. A guy I'm keeping an eye on is Kyle Tucker an OF from Florida. But the MLB team already has too many outfielders!!!
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Post by Guidas on Mar 26, 2015 15:33:14 GMT -5
In a broad sense this echoes what Keith Law said over the winter about this draft, which he called "substandard" and said was similar to 2013's draft <paraphrasing>. which, in 2013 he called the "worst in the last 20 years" <not paraphrasing>. Lottery tickets, anyone?
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Post by borisman on Mar 26, 2015 15:52:43 GMT -5
I know we have been concentrating on pitchers and rightly so given that seems like the strength of the draft. But I don't think we should overlooked position players. A guy I'm keeping an eye on is Kyle Tucker an OF from Florida. But the MLB team already has too many outfielders!!! Trade Mookie then!
Yeah, with so many pitchers at the top having health questions and some control problems, if I had to pick a health risk it'd be Aiken (Giolito factor). He may be worth the wait. A ceiling of a number 1 if healthy. And I can see both Houston and Colorado play the "reach" game. It would only benefit us if they did. Add: And if he does have surgery he would still be a young 20 when ready to return and he'll probably be pushing upper minors by 21, 22, even with the limited innings early on.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 26, 2015 17:49:41 GMT -5
Aiken just tweeted that he had TJ. Have to guess that he makes it to #7 now
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 26, 2015 18:26:26 GMT -5
Do we even take him at 7?
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Post by ramireja on Mar 26, 2015 18:29:27 GMT -5
Do we even take him at 7? Good question. I'd lean towards 'no,' but certainly wouldn't hate on it if they did. I think it depends on the remaining performance of this volatile grouping of 7-8 other players. If there is a healthy and effective Buehler, Tate, Kirby, or Allard available, then I'd personally favor that over Aiken and his situation. If there is just as much concern and question regarding those players and whoever else is available at 7, then we might as well take Aiken and his pretty special upside.
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Post by soxfan06 on Mar 26, 2015 18:34:38 GMT -5
Astros got crucified for offering less when they first had their injury concerns about him. Now, they look very justified.
It's an interesting discussion though, do you use our pick (if he is there) on a guy who had the talent to be #1 overall but who now has a long term injury...or do you go with a safer bet?
If the draft is really a bad/mediocre as some suggest, I'd take Aiken. But that's a discussion for people well above my pay grade.
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Post by jdb on Mar 26, 2015 18:35:24 GMT -5
I wonder how much they've scouted him since he was the top pick last year and we didn't have a chance. if they have a good idea about him I think they'd roll the dice since he really wouldn't miss that much pro time. Keep him in extended Spring Training next year and send him to Greenville around June.
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Post by mjammz on Mar 26, 2015 18:40:09 GMT -5
I really don't think the top of the draft is as weak as people are making it out to be. I see 8-10 players that can move fast and make immediate impacts in the system. Our farm system is already loaded, we have the money to take chances, and we don't have any picks between 8-79, so I expect them to be aggressive early and roll the dice on potentially the best player in the draft. Imagine getting both Moncada and Brady Aiken into our system 6 months ago. It was almost unfathomable and now there is a legit chance.
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Post by Jim Crowell on Mar 26, 2015 19:09:52 GMT -5
Arizona - Rodgers Houston - Swanson Colorado - Tate Texas - Matuella Houston - Buehler Minnesota - Kirby Boston - Aiken
No idea what order these seven go in, but I think this news drops Aiken to Boston. We will see if Rikard pulls the trigger on a guy coming off TJ surgery in his first pick as Scouting Director, but I think Aiken's upside is too good to pass up. Following this draft has been equal parts amazing and frustrating.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 26, 2015 19:24:58 GMT -5
I'm of the mindset that you take a calculated risk when you are at #7 and don't expect to be there anytime soon, much like they did with Ball, who was/is risky, but could also pay off huge. If he falls to 7, I could certainly see the reasoning both ways, and it's a much easier sell of "no" than the Ball pick was a "yes" at the time, not that explaining it should have much to do with it at all
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Post by chavopepe2 on Mar 26, 2015 19:33:27 GMT -5
Houston can't take him, Arizona almost certainly won't take him. I don't see the Twins taking him, though that's more of a gut feel. Maybe Colorado, but I think the most likely is Texas. They're a team that has taken flyers on guys that drop.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 26, 2015 20:25:27 GMT -5
The spinal conditiom that Matuella has makes me more nervous than a rebuilt elbow. And rebuilt elbows make me nervous.
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Post by jmei on Mar 26, 2015 20:33:38 GMT -5
I wouldn't hesitate to grab him. The odds on TJ are good and have only improved in recent years, and Aiken combines upside with a good amount of polish.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 26, 2015 20:59:40 GMT -5
He pitched at the same 18-U tournament Yoan Moncada played a couple of years ago. I follow him on Twitter and he seemed to have fond memories of him. Tweeting with some other guys about how good Moncada was.
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Post by bsout2 on Mar 26, 2015 21:30:35 GMT -5
Regarding Aiken, I think you will start to see stories about who conducted the surgery, why it was conducted so quickly after his last start, and whether he is open to his medicals being looked over by MLB Teams. Right or not he is going to be scrutinized by a lot of people. He left his last start a little over a week ago and then broke the news himself (post-surgery) that he had his arm worked on.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 26, 2015 21:59:54 GMT -5
Wonder if we could get a decent deal on him too.
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Post by SoxInTx on Mar 26, 2015 23:20:49 GMT -5
I would take Aiken at #7 considering the lack of picks after and the fact we don't expect to draft that high in the future. It's simple a best player available situation of you ask me.
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