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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 11, 2015 13:48:43 GMT -5
I still think with the pitching talent that's close to the majors, that we are just as well off going with HS arm with huge upside rather than a college arm, especially with the injury risk of some of the top college arms. Nikorak sounds interesting, but I don't know how to compare him to Hooper or someone else. Is 7 too high for Nikorak? Maybe a below slot deal?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 11, 2015 14:02:57 GMT -5
I don't think 7th is high for him. I expect he'll rank in the top 10 or close to it when people start updating their rankings, don't know where Law had him.
But beyond rankings as has been noted the separation at the top are not that pronounced so it's just a matter how teams evuate him.
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Post by templeusox on Apr 11, 2015 16:24:57 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson is fairly easily the best player in the Draft.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 11, 2015 16:33:54 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson is fairly easily the best player in the Draft. I look forward to this post every year from temple.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 11, 2015 18:48:47 GMT -5
I don't think 7th is high for him. I expect he'll rank in the top 10 or close to it when people start updating their rankings, don't know where Law had him. But beyond rankings as has been noted the separation at the top are not that pronounced so it's just a matter how teams evuate him. Law has him (Nikorak) ranked 10th.
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Post by xithereon on Apr 12, 2015 15:11:32 GMT -5
One name to keep an eye on (and one many here will surely recognize) is Nick Shumpert. Beyond the obvious reasons, namely his relation to Betts, he could quickly rise up the draft boards. He is very well regarded by Perfect Game, who predicted big things from him this year due to noticeable improvements and he is regarded as one of the players who is most consistently improving. He has, so far, exceeded their lofty expectations of him, albeit in a small sample size. Nonetheless he has an absurd 19 hits, 19 runs, 11 walks and only 3 strike outs in 9 games over 38 PA and 26 AB (the remaining PA was a HBP). He also has 4 doubles a triple and 4 home runs in that same span, which suggests that he is making good contact and that not all of his absurd .731 BA is due to "luck". He also had one of the better IF throwing velocities (as measured by Perfect Game) and has a better 60 time than Betts did at the same age. Considering the fact that he grew up around baseball, has a similar player profile to his cousin in many ways (although he is bigger at 6'0" 180lb), was predicted to breakout this year and has started the year on a tear and is considered a true five tool prospect at short, I believe he could easily become one of the best players in this draft class. Honestly, if I were the Sox I would be tempted to take him at 7 for under slot and hope that one of the many injured pitchers in this years draft falls. If we had a second round pick I would be tempted to wait, but if he keeps hitting like this he could rise quickly and I believe, in the long term, he might be one of the top two or three talents in the entire draft class. It certainly would not be a safe pick, but with his upside and the positive reports on his adjustments this year I think he could be a player to take a chance on. Thoughts? Some recent information on him: usatodayhss.com/2015/gatorade-national-poy-watch-nick-shumpertwww.maxpreps.com/athlete/nick-shumpert/Shf88fTsEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htmwww.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=336872
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 12, 2015 18:31:36 GMT -5
Another potential mid-first round pick goes down:
Kendall Rogers ?@kendallrogersd1 1h1 hour ago Elite @bcbirdball slugger and prospect Chris Shaw will miss several weeks after suffering a hamate bone injury this weekend. #MLBDraft #bc
He might be back before the draft but its unclear.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2015 18:59:40 GMT -5
Some draft related notes in Laws chat. He says Aiken could fall to the back half or out of the first, Matula is in the 8-15 range, he thinks Ian Happ is top ten as a 2B, scouting Daz Cameron tonight and he's being considered at 1-1 and his top 50 is out tomorrow. espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51714/mlb-insider-keith-lawI don't really understand the "concern" regarding Aiken's TJ surgery. UCL surgery is typically *replacement* with the palmaris longus tendon (an extraneous tendon/muscle in the forearm that 15% of the population doesn't even have). Unless he lacks the PL and his Achilles or another tendon is harvested, his surgery should be do different from usual. Since UCL surgery is replacement, not repair, whatever the initial findings of a supposed "congenital small UCL" are, they become essentially irrelevant after replacement. That said, Aiken may be an ideal #7 pick for a below-slot offer. If he thinks he's going to slide, he doesn't have a whole lot of leverage. The Sox could then use the savings for a few tough signs later on (risk being that the top players are essentially all gone by pick 81). If Aiken doesn't sign, the Sox have "punted" the pick but can't really be "faulted" by the commisioner's office, because they drafted a player who clearly is an injury risk and probably wouldn't warrant a full slot bonus. The Sox win either way...getting a young 1/1 quality talent on the cheap, and quality players later on, or a #8 pick next year along with the high-20s pick they look to get anyway.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Apr 13, 2015 11:12:56 GMT -5
I hope we get BPA that will sign at slot or slightly below. If Aiken is willing to do so, then the Sox should sign him. I do not know if Aiken will make it to us. We could use another high quality lefty starter. What would Aiken's ETA roughly be to reach the majors?
As far as any rising position player, I like to read elite hand eye skills, and above average plate descipline. If Nikorak, has all those skills along with his athleticism, then I am extremely interested.
If we only draft 1 elite player out of this draft and no other starters I will still be very happy with our draft any year.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 13, 2015 15:18:35 GMT -5
Jheremy Brown @jbrownpg Quick 1st for Mike Nikorak, K'ing the side with a steady diet of 93-96 mph FBs. 2S showing late life @ 91/92 w hard biting CB @ 82 #MLBDraft
Jheremy Brown @jbrownpg Nikorak with an efficient 2nd throwing less than 10 pitches & still up to 96 mph. CB is showing hard, late bite, tight rot. #RollTide commit
Jheremy Brown @jbrownpg Nikorak finishes his 4 innings of work by striking out 7 (3 with FB, 4 w CB), 1 BB & 1 soft hit. Full report & video on @perfectgameusa tom.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 14, 2015 12:19:31 GMT -5
From his chat today:
Comment From Shawn Any idea what the Red Sox are gonna do at #7? I thought in a previous chat you mentioned something about what they might do in the draft. Think they could take Aiken?
Kiley McDaniel Probably not. All will be revealed Friday.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 14, 2015 23:32:15 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2015 10:28:11 GMT -5
Any rumblings that the Sox might trade some Intl draft money to a team with a Sandwich pick for that pick? A sportswriter friend threw this on the table to me last night and of course I gobbled it up, but it was just conjecture as far as he knew.
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Post by azblue on Apr 15, 2015 10:42:23 GMT -5
The Rockies competitive balance pick at 38 is something that might interest the Red Sox in some type of transaction.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 15, 2015 10:43:25 GMT -5
From his chat today: Comment From Shawn Any idea what the Red Sox are gonna do at #7? I thought in a previous chat you mentioned something about what they might do in the draft. Think they could take Aiken? Kiley McDaniel Probably not. All will be revealed Friday. Hmm
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2015 11:33:10 GMT -5
Any rumblings that the Sox might trade some Intl draft money to a team with a Sandwich pick for that pick? A sportswriter friend threw this on the table to me last night and of course I gobbled it up, but it was just conjecture as far as he knew. I doubt it. That international money has proven to be pretty worthless. That money is only worth much if it's going to keep you from going over the cap enough to get penalized (which would not necessarily be an occurrence I expect to be likely). The receiving team needs basically to be barely going over the cap, and if they're doing that, why? Now, MAYBE the Sox could get something for the $1,950,100 slot, but consider that the next one is worth just $485,300. The Competitive Balance A slot values are between $1,668,600 and $1,468,400, which in my opinion are more valuable than the Sox top int'l slot. The Competitive Balance B slots run from $865,900 to $814,300. Maybe you could argue that deal is worth it, but again, I doubt one of Cincy, Seattle, Minnesota, the Dodgers, or Atlanta wants to bother making that deal. To me, it's not worth trading a draft pick, which includes both the player and the associated money, to acquire, in this case, just under $2M of breathing room on the IFA cap. Maybe a Comp B pick in this weak draft, but again, my guess is teams either stay close to the cap or blow through it. Remember, these deals are agreed to well in advance, and I'm not sure teams are going to line up deals planning on being able to deal for cap money. www.baseballamerica.com/international/2015-international-bonus-pools-slots/www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2015-mlb-draft-slots/
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Post by South Coast Ghost on Apr 15, 2015 12:42:38 GMT -5
If we traded for a Competitive Balance A pick, would we not then lose it for signing two FA's with the QO attached? I thought the picks we lost for that weren't set in stone until the day of the draft, meaning we would lose the Comp A pick and our 2nd rounder instead of the 2nd rounder and our Comp B pick we are currently losing.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 15, 2015 13:42:24 GMT -5
If we traded for a Competitive Balance A pick, would we not then lose it for signing two FA's with the QO attached? I thought the picks we lost for that weren't set in stone until the day of the draft, meaning we would lose the Comp A pick and our 2nd rounder instead of the 2nd rounder and our Comp B pick we are currently losing. Yeah, we would essentially be trading for a lower pick than the Comp A pick. Highly doubt this happens anyway.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 15, 2015 14:18:56 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2015 15:23:15 GMT -5
If we traded for a Competitive Balance A pick, would we not then lose it for signing two FA's with the QO attached? I thought the picks we lost for that weren't set in stone until the day of the draft, meaning we would lose the Comp A pick and our 2nd rounder instead of the 2nd rounder and our Comp B pick we are currently losing. Yeah, we would essentially be trading for a lower pick than the Comp A pick. Highly doubt this happens anyway. Right, but if you're trading for a Comp B pick, then you're also really trading for a Comp B pick, whether it's the A's one or the new one.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 15, 2015 15:33:18 GMT -5
Yeah, we would essentially be trading for a lower pick than the Comp A pick. Highly doubt this happens anyway. Right, but if you're trading for a Comp B pick, then you're also really trading for a Comp B pick, whether it's the A's one or the new one. Lol yeah, not sure why, but I had my mind locked into the "A" for some reason.
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Post by arzjake on Apr 15, 2015 17:52:37 GMT -5
Whats the consensus Pitching or hitting?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 15, 2015 17:54:02 GMT -5
Some notes: - Aiken will be 10th on their updated list. More speculation that the TJ wasn't your normal TJ. The lack of high end pitching talent at the top may help him. - The College pitching class has a lot of question marks. (Listen to it, they go more in depth on a lot of guys). - There could deals cut at the top. - Kyle Tucker is rising. Probably will go in the top 10. Teams have a lot conviction on his bat and power. - There is some depth of College SS that could go in the 1-2 rounds.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,930
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Post by nomar on Apr 15, 2015 20:06:38 GMT -5
Some notes: - Aiken will be 10th on their updated list. More speculation that the TJ wasn't your normal TJ. The lack of high end pitching talent at the top may help him. - The College pitching class has a lot of question marks. (Listen to it, they go more in depth on a lot of guys). - There could deals cut at the top. - Kyle Tucker is rising. Probably will go in the top 10. Teams have a lot conviction on his bat and power. - There is some depth of College SS that could go in the 1-2 rounds. Your boy Tucker getting some love. He gets Ted Williams swing comps, we could use another one of those I guess. I can buy into him or Bregman at our pick, and I have a feeling one of them will be who Kiley has been hearing for us now as well.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 15, 2015 22:23:02 GMT -5
Sounds like a position player is the more prudent way to go. Not taking an injury risk with a Top 10 pick. If we took Tucker and it took him 4-5 years to make. Look at it this way. Castillo's contract is about up by then.
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