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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by taftreign on Apr 15, 2015 23:06:06 GMT -5
We know of Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman both SEC high round 1 hitters. Another SEC hitting prospect who hasn't been ranked nearly as highly who I am intrigued by is Arkansas CF Andrew Benintendi. Currently BA's #97 draft prospect. While only 5' 10" or 5' 11" he has really shown the ability to drive the ball, currently sitting at 13 HRs while playing a premium defensive position (although I can't say at what level). He offers a speed element swiping 12 in 15 attempts and has 25 BB to 20 K.
At this point I imagine he doesn't last until Bostons third round pick and appears to be a bit of a stretch as a first round deal cutter.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 16, 2015 11:53:09 GMT -5
And here is a projection of picks teams will not make in June. I'll try to update it as we get more speculation.
1. ARI: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 2. HOU: Brendan Rogers, SS, Florida HS 3. COL: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara 4. TEX: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville 5. HOU: Nathan Kirby, LHP, UVA 6. MIN: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU 7. BOS: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy 8. CWS: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS 9. CHC: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS 10. PHI: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS 11. CIN: Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke 12. MIA: Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan 13. TB: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati 14. ATL: Dakota Chalmers, RHP, Georgia HS 15. MIL: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS 16. NYY: Phil Bickford, RHP, Junior College 17. CLE: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt 18. SF: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt 19. PIT: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS 20. OAK: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Sonoma 21. KC: Demi Orimoloye, OF, Canada HS 22. DET: Justin Hooper, LHP, California HS 23. STL: Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State 24. LAD: Richie Martin, SS, Florida 25. BAL: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS 26. LAA: Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky
This surely will all be wrong but who know maybe I'm a genius.
My reasoning for Aiken is this: I think the Red Sox might get full access into his medicals where they might feel comfortable enough to pick him. I know there are rumors that his TJ was more complicated than your usual TJ but I'm no doctor so I don't know what to make of that. It will be a matter of what doctors say and how likely is it that Aiken comes back to form, at which point the pick would be a bargain. There is a lot we don't know, as even the speculation right now seems tongue in cheek. But since I will most certainly be wrong might as well go big or go home plus Cherrington was at the game so they clearly have a level of interest.
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Post by jdb on Apr 16, 2015 12:06:02 GMT -5
Fulmer is pitching on ESPNU tonight for anyone interested. It looks like he has been throwing more strikes lately. I know early on he had controll issues.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 16, 2015 12:34:42 GMT -5
From his chat today: Comment From Shawn Any idea what the Red Sox are gonna do at #7? I thought in a previous chat you mentioned something about what they might do in the draft. Think they could take Aiken? Kiley McDaniel Probably not. All will be revealed Friday. so I guess we find out tomorrow
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 16, 2015 12:51:58 GMT -5
And here is a projection of picks teams will not make in June. I'll try to update it as we get more speculation. 1. ARI: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 2. HOU: Brendan Rogers, SS, Florida HS 3. COL: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara 4. TEX: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville 5. HOU: Nathan Kirby, LHP, UVA 6. MIN: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU 7. BOS: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy 8. CWS: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS 9. CHC: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS 10. PHI: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS Like the top 4 (although maybe in a different order). I think 5 is high for Kirby...he has been trending down for a couple weeks.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 16, 2015 14:00:48 GMT -5
Yeah I was kind of struggling there at 5. They have the two top five picks plus a competitive balance and high second round pick so I could see a deal there, they have the pick inventory to make it work. Just didn't know who, maybe Bregman (but I had given them Rogers already), thought of Ian Happ. I didn't know where to put Kirby so just stuck him in there.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 16, 2015 15:28:34 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 16, 2015 15:43:04 GMT -5
I'm ok with Aiken if his medicals check out. But I am skeptical. I really like Nikorak, from what Ive read. With the pitching talent at AAA, I think they can wait on a high ceiling HS pitcher. Love the heat. Seems to have decent control. But there's no disagreement that Aiken's talent is top notch. Hard to pass that if they are comfortable with medicals.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 16, 2015 17:12:58 GMT -5
d1baseball.com released their top 100 draft-eligible high schoolers. Note: it's only HSers with college commitments (so no Aiken). I don't have a subscription so I can only see the top 10: 1 Brendan Rodgers SS Lake Mary (FL) Florida State 2 Mike Nikorak RHP Stroudsburg (PA) Alabama 3 Kolby Allard LHP San Clemente (CA) UCLA 4 Kyle Tucker OF Plant (FL) Florida 5 Trenton Clark OF Richland (TX) Texas Tech 6 Daz Cameron OF Eagle’s Landing Christian Aca. (GA) Florida State 7 Justin Hooper LHP De La Salle (CA) UCLA 8 Austin Smith RHP Park Vista Community (FL) Florida Atlantic 9 Cornelius Randolph 3B Griffin (GA) Clemson 10 Nick Plummer OF Brother Rice (MI) Kentucky www.d1baseball.com/the-buzz/high-school-top-100-with-commitments/
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 16, 2015 19:08:38 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel ?@kileymcd Just got a text alerting me that you can easily see Red Sox GM Ben Cherington sitting behind home at the Vandy-USC game on ESPNU. You can.
Fulmer pitching tonight.
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Post by alex710707 on Apr 16, 2015 19:53:16 GMT -5
Besides Brendan Rodgers, Mike Matuella(When Healthy) and Brady Aiken (When Healthy), my favorite is Justin Hooper (6-7 230lbs).
Although there is some control issue, his fastball is devastating. 93~97 mile FB with downward movement is crazy. I hope red sox roll the dice on him. Daz Cameron and Kyle Funkhouser are the other two that I like.
Justin Hooper PG All-American Classic Vedeo
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Post by Guidas on Apr 16, 2015 20:26:46 GMT -5
@brianmacp: Hello, Ben Cherington, scouting tonight's Vanderbilt-South Carolina game. (h/t @kileymcd) t.co/8EVt5UEKefphoto evidence. Ben must've been passing through and just needed to stop for a ballgame.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 16, 2015 21:30:06 GMT -5
Fulmer has electric stuff, some of the best in the draft, but with the violence in his delivery you have to really buy in not to think he's likely a reliever, a darn good might I add.
I'm no expert though so what do I know. If the scouting department thinks he can hold up for a few years it might be worthwhile. After all Tim Lincecum had the reliever tag and yeah his peak was short but it was espectacular and the Giants got their monies worth.
Now I don't want to compare Fulmer to Lincecum, he's a freak, just that there is a risk/reward calculations that are part of the equation. The Red Sox have history with Fulmer, drafted him made a good run at signing him, so they have that on their side.
Edit: His results today
@hudsonbelinsky: Fulmer strikes out Bright with 94 down and away. Struck out the side in the 7th. FB 91-94 t95. Spotting to all four quadrants.
@shotgunsprd1: Carson Fulmer's final line: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, BB, 9 K, 108 pitches. That's pretty solid I'd say.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 16, 2015 21:58:59 GMT -5
And some video of Fulmer, from earlier in the season.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 16, 2015 22:55:54 GMT -5
Maybe due diligence on Fulmer or more a draft and follow. They drafted him once in 2012 and didn't sign him but clearly liked him.
Watching the video I wondered if his foot positioning is his standard while throwing from the windup. Can't tell if there is anyone on but doesn't appear to glance towards any runners. Stands on the first base side of the rubber but with his feet both pointing towards third base similar to what you would expect while throwing from the stretch.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 17, 2015 7:40:24 GMT -5
That's the first time I saw Looper in that video .count me in as interested. Can you imagine tightening that up? Nasty. We pick 7 and then 81 so we got to make it good. I rather go boom or bust.thats what's good with having a owner who spends. I can believe Tate jumped up so much I was hoping he was our fallback . I also in on Aiken if the Medicals are okay. They can wait till he heals up. You have to go for it an I don't want safe. I will never say anything if they go for it.
I am more excited for this pick than the Patriots believe it or not.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 17, 2015 8:15:30 GMT -5
In the BA podcast (which is well worth the listen FYI), John Manuel was very emphatic that Justin Hooper is trending down. While he has great velo on his fastball, he has almost no ability to control it. As a lanky LHP he might eventually be able to harness his control, but I think the first round is a little rich for my tastes.
As for Fulmer, I pretty much wince every time I see his delivery. He has immense stuff (some of the best in the draft), but it is almost certainly a reliever profile. Not sure I want to pick a closer at pick 7.
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Post by jdb on Apr 17, 2015 8:59:36 GMT -5
About a month ago I wouldn't have touched Fulmer but his command has come a long way since the beginning of the season when he had a start with more balls than strikes. His last two outings have been great with only 1 BB. Agree that the delivery is bad but maybe he could hold up for six years.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 17, 2015 9:44:54 GMT -5
John Manuel @johnmanuelba · 19m 19 minutes ago HS pitching for #mlbdraft is so volatile, New York City RHP Wesley Rodriguez climbing the charts with every outing; up to 99 mph of late
Went to Manny's HS.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 17, 2015 10:19:34 GMT -5
In the BA podcast (which is well worth the listen FYI), John Manuel was very emphatic that Justin Hooper is trending down. While he has great velo on his fastball, he has almost no ability to control it. As a lanky LHP he might eventually be able to harness his control, but I think the first round is a little rich for my tastes. As for Fulmer, I pretty much wince every time I see his delivery. He has immense stuff (some of the best in the draft), but it is almost certainly a reliever profile. Not sure I want to pick a closer at pick 7. Hooper reminds me of Andrew Miller. The lack of control in that video was pretty atrocious.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 17, 2015 12:52:27 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 17, 2015 14:49:24 GMT -5
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Post by juniorp90 on Apr 17, 2015 15:20:11 GMT -5
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Post by dewey1972 on Apr 17, 2015 16:59:08 GMT -5
There are brief writeups on his top 36, for those who, like me, haven't been following this stuff too closely.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 17, 2015 17:24:30 GMT -5
....and BA has their list up now too. 1 Brendan Rodgers ss Lake Mary (Fla.) HS 2 Dillon Tate rhp UC Santa Barbara 3 Dansby Swanson 2b/ss Vanderbilt 4 Alex Bregman ss Louisiana State 5 Kyle Funkhouser rhp Louisville 6 Carson Fulmer rhp Vanderbilt 7 Nathan Kirby lhp Virginia 8 Walker Buehler rhp Vanderbilt 9 Trenton Clark of Richland HS, North Richland Hills, Texas 10 Kyle Tucker of Plant HS, Tampa www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-50-draft-prospects/
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