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9/1 ML Gameday Thread: Finale day for full season clubs
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 1, 2014 15:52:15 GMT -5
For anyone curious, the 2006 Gickle Sox featured the following future major leaguers: Felix Doubront, Ryan Kalish, Kris Negron, Argenis Diaz, Miguel Socolovich
Lineup in the clincher that year:
3B Kris Negron SS Argenis Diaz CF Jason Place C Jonathan Egan 1B Mike Jones LF Carlos Fernandez RF Ryan Kalish 2B Pedro Vasquez DH Chih-Hsien Chiang SP Jorge Rodriguez (Emilis Guerrero and Will Mann threw in relief)
Doubront was the game 1 starter, Joseph "the guy I always get Javier confused with" Guerra game 2
They beat the now non-existant GCL Dodgers, whose starting CATCHER was Kenley Jansen. Clayton Kershaw was on that team as well, but did not pitch in the championship series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2014 15:57:56 GMT -5
The best part about the season being over, for me, is that I can start crunching numbers, specifically Clay Davenport's, and get some kind of objective ranking of recent performance. It's always interesting to compare that to the scouting reports. I did this last year ... and never f'ing posted it! By the time I was done, it seemed moot. But I should be able to fire up the spreadsheet and get it done within a day or three, depending on how much I'm subconsciously dodging my real-world responsibilities how "into it" I get. Basically, I'm taking his Peak Translations (projections) and adding his defensive rankings heavily regressed, all of it weighted 3-2-1 the last 3 years, and then adjusting for closeness to MLB. There are tweaks, of course (the most interesting being the "Swihart exemption" -- any guesses?), which I'll explain when I post the results. Pitch framing estimate ?
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Post by mabrowndog on Sept 1, 2014 15:58:29 GMT -5
Everyone say "cheese"...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2014 16:03:25 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 5m
Rusney Castillo will play Wednesday for Portland in G1 of Eastern League playoffs #RedSox
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Post by mabrowndog on Sept 1, 2014 16:20:16 GMT -5
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Post by mabrowndog on Sept 1, 2014 16:25:02 GMT -5
Aaron McFarling ?@aaronmcfarling 9m Loss by SalemSox today means entire best-of-3 division series will be played in Myrtle starting Wednesday.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 1, 2014 19:15:48 GMT -5
Notable August minor league hitting stats (Min 50 PA) Reg. season minor league stats only. Margot (A/A+) 0.396/0.432/0.634/1.066 4HR 10SB Chavis (ROK) 0.372/0.430/0.590/1.020 1HR 4SB Acosta (ROK) 0.390/0.446/0.525/0.972 0HR 3SBBetts (AAA) 0.375/0.444/ 0.521/0.965 0HR 3SB Asuaje (A+) 0.342/0.417/0.541/0.958 3HR 0SB De La Cruz (AA) 0.337/0.402/0.547/0.949 4HR 2SB Blair (A+/AA) 0.274/ 0.395/0.532/0.927 3HR 0SB Cecchini (AAA) 0.333/0.413/0.500/0.913 2HR 1SB Johnson (A+) 0.327/0.422/0.482/0.904 2HR A little surprised Acosta hasn't been able to break back into the top 60 prospects as an 18 year old who won't turn 19 until June 2015 and has shown something with the bat in the GCL. He's 10 months younger than Chavis and 9 months younger than Ockimey. Offensively he's not much different than Guerra who is also around 9 months older and ranks 26. Obviously the defensive difference accounts for some of the higher ranking but seems to be too large a difference. What is it about the scouting report that accounts for his current standing?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2014 19:38:58 GMT -5
There are tweaks [to my ranking methodology], of course (the most interesting being the "Swihart exemption" -- any guesses?), which I'll explain when I post the results. Pitch framing estimate ? Good guess, but it's a general exemption that can apply to anyone. And it's that a guy who seems to be genuinely improving relative to the normal rate of improvement -- which is to say, a guy whose peak translation keeps on getting better -- is ranked by his most recent season. Swihart in 2012 and 2013 had peak translations (position-adjusted) of .255 and .276, respectively. If that were mostly random variation around his true talent, you might project something like .269 for this year. I opined last year that the scouting reports all indicated it represented real extra improvement. He wasn't just climbing the ladder successfully and adapting as needed as he went, as, for instance, we hope Devers does; he was outstripping that. So we were realistically hoping for something like .286 to .291 this year. In fact, he was .294 when he was promoted. He's dropped some since (no point calculating the exact figure when it will be finalized in tomorrow's data!), but he has still improved, once again, his performance for his age relative to league.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 1, 2014 19:53:08 GMT -5
For anyone curious, the 2006 Gickle Sox featured the following future major leaguers: Felix Doubront, Ryan Kalish, Kris Negron, Argenis Diaz, Miguel Socolovich Lineup in the clincher that year: 3B Kris Negron SS Argenis Diaz CF Jason Place C Jonathan Egan 1B Mike Jones LF Carlos Fernandez RF Ryan Kalish 2B Pedro Vasquez DH Chih-Hsien Chiang SP Jorge Rodriguez (Emilis Guerrero and Will Mann threw in relief) Wow. Massive Buzz Kill.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 1, 2014 19:58:06 GMT -5
For anyone curious, the 2006 Gickle Sox featured the following future major leaguers: Felix Doubront, Ryan Kalish, Kris Negron, Argenis Diaz, Miguel Socolovich Lineup in the clincher that year: 3B Kris Negron SS Argenis Diaz CF Jason Place C Jonathan Egan 1B Mike Jones LF Carlos Fernandez RF Ryan Kalish 2B Pedro Vasquez DH Chih-Hsien Chiang SP Jorge Rodriguez (Emilis Guerrero and Will Mann threw in relief) Wow. Massive Buzz Kill. Totally dude!
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 1, 2014 20:17:20 GMT -5
Someone else was there from the loyal fans here posting/taking photos: I caught the bus celebration, on field and team photo shots, took plenty of others, but won't repeat those.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 1, 2014 20:22:39 GMT -5
Outside the bus champagne party: Actually. My son took these pics. He had a blast at the game.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 1, 2014 20:29:10 GMT -5
Don't think can ever be too many pics of the "trophy" team pic. When the last out was made? Multiple guys ran out onto the field, flipping gloves high into the air. Shame my son didn't quite catch that part. The Rusney autograph hounds were in full force. Must have been 2 dozen waiting by the gate at the team bench, one guy with 3 bats and 3 balls expecting him to sign them all. My son said he refused and just signed one. Jerks like that is why ball players get fed up signing anything at all.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2014 21:01:56 GMT -5
Not really, both having trophies on the mantle doesn't make them equivalent teams. I will have to admit though that seeing Jason Place' name anyplace is a downer, he couldn't hit the crooked stuff. If I were to guess, there would be two main reasons. First, age notwithstanding, he's repeating the GCL. He's doing well but you'd expect him to do well. He'll need to do well at a new level to get some helium going. Second, he's at a new position and was forced there by other prospects (Devers, Chavis). The difference in defense between him and Guerra is likely to be huge. In this case, being moved to a new position doesn't necessarily mean that the position is ideal for him so, again, we'll have to wait and see how that develops. To me, he's surely a prospect that's worth watching. Good bat second basemen are also valuable.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2014 21:41:38 GMT -5
For reference, guys on the 2006 team who were ranked by BA (bumping up everyone by 1 because Dice-K was ranked #1):
Jason Place 10 Ryan Kalish 16 Felix Doubront 17 Jon Egan 23 Kris Negron 28
and the catch: Lars Anderson (5), Caleb Clay (18), and Ty Weeden (26) all signed too late to play, under the old inefficient deadline rule.
Compare to SP's current (assuming Vazquez graduates; bump all up one if Mookie does as well):
Devers 4 Chavis 9 Kopech 14 Guerra 25 (Cosart 32)
That 2006/7 system had great talent in the top 20 (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Lowrie, Masterson, Moss, Murphy, Doubront) but thinned out after that. Negron (who has been starting for the Reds since the end of July, first at 2B because Phillips was hurt, and then at 3B with Frazier at 1B, and playing pretty well) would not have made the top 30 in the current system.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2014 22:56:30 GMT -5
For reference, guys on the 2006 team who were ranked by BA (bumping up everyone by 1 because Dice-K was ranked #1): Jason Place 10 (age 18) Ryan Kalish 16 (age 18) Felix Doubront 17 (age 18) Jon Egan 23 (age 19) Kris Negron 28 (age 20) and the catch: Lars Anderson (5), Caleb Clay (18), and Ty Weeden (26) all signed too late to play, under the old inefficient deadline rule. Compare to SP's current (assuming Vazquez graduates; bump all up one if Mookie does as well): Devers 4 (age 17) Chavis 9 (age 18) Kopech 14 (age 18) Guerra 25 (age 18) (Cosart 32) (age 20) That 2006/7 system had great talent in the top 20 (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Lowrie, Masterson, Moss, Murphy, Doubront) but thinned out after that. Negron (who has been starting for the Reds since the end of July, first at 2B because Phillips was hurt, and then at 3B with Frazier at 1B, and playing pretty well) would not have made the top 30 in the current system. Ages added for reference.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2014 4:18:34 GMT -5
Since July 29th, Daniel Gonzalez in the DSL has had an impressive run. Including the playoffs, he's pitched 26 innings, allowed no runs, 6 singles (3 ground, 2 linedrive, 1 flyball), 2 doubles (both flyballs), 4 walks while striking out 24.
Rough count 29GO 9FO 6PO (all to infielders) 1LO (pitcher) 1DP (line drive) 1E4 (fielding).
Of the 13 batters that reached base, only one advanced, that was by way of a sac bunt. Nobody stole a base and there was one caught stealing.
He's 18, in his second year (0.96ERA last year) and was the starter in the DSL all star game and was the starter in their playoff no hitter. It'll be interesting to see how his DSL dominance translates.
We also have three other starters with age/experience impressive numbers. Diaz (like Gonzalez, two years in a row), Lacruz (17, first year, impressive 2nd half) and Bautista (19, first year).
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 2, 2014 6:55:03 GMT -5
That photo of Buttrey bears a strong resemblance to a very young Curt Schilling. Thought the same thing. Let's hope he brings some of his other qualities along.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 2, 2014 7:00:46 GMT -5
Everyone say "cheese"... First Row L to R............................................................................
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Post by mabrowndog on Sept 2, 2014 9:32:35 GMT -5
Another celebration shot, as they go nuts with the Martinelli's...
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