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Post by James Dunne on Oct 2, 2014 21:46:12 GMT -5
I think the Yanks and Phillies trade A Rod for Howard I would be rather surprised if this happens.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 2, 2014 22:18:24 GMT -5
The guy we haven't talked about yet is Josh Donaldson. I would not be shocked if he were made available.
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Post by kman22 on Oct 2, 2014 22:41:26 GMT -5
The guy we haven't talked about yet is Josh Donaldson. I would not be shocked if he were made available. Someone brought him up in another thread, he'd be costly. I'd prefer a shorter term fix if I was BC.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 2, 2014 22:46:11 GMT -5
Donaldson's also 29; you'd be seriously buying high.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 2, 2014 23:12:12 GMT -5
I think the Yanks and Phillies trade A Rod for Howard I would be rather surprised if this happens. That would be hilarious
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 2, 2014 23:49:01 GMT -5
Donaldson's also 29; you'd be seriously buying high. Donaldson is one of the best players in the game, and 29 isn't really old - it's not like we're talking about giving him a six-year extension. I'm also not sure trading for him is "buying high" as much as it is buying good.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 3, 2014 1:16:24 GMT -5
Donaldson sure would look good at 3B for the Sox, almost exactly the kind of hitter the Sox need. What would it take?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2014 6:38:38 GMT -5
Donaldson sure would look good at 3B for the Sox, almost exactly the kind of hitter the Sox need. What would it take? More than it would take for Tulowitzki.
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Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2014 8:21:55 GMT -5
There's a Donaldson thread in the trade proposal subforum. That's where "what would it take"-type discussions should go. Thanks.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2014 19:43:23 GMT -5
A lot if mixed feelings on this site about sandavol, but the bottom line- he appears to be a clutch hitter, and we could use a bat like that!
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 4, 2014 20:14:22 GMT -5
Sandoval is more likely to eat his way of the league just like Kevin Mitchell did a number of years ago. He is not going to age well with a body like that.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 4, 2014 20:37:47 GMT -5
For that reason I wouldn't give him more than a four year contract taking him to his age 32 season.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 4, 2014 20:44:46 GMT -5
Sandoval is more likely to eat his way of the league just like Kevin Mitchell did a number of years ago. He is not going to age well with a body like that. Reportedly he has started Atkins. First he's fat, then he's thin...pick a body and stick with it!! The guy can hit.....Kunfu Panda...come on in!!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 5, 2014 2:15:40 GMT -5
Just wanted to throw it out there:
If the Yankees, Arod and the union come to some type of buy-out agreement (my money is on a very awkward spring training for the Yankees....again) then is it worth kicking the tires on Arod?
based on his last two years of play, he appears to be somewhere around a 2-win player with an average-ish bat and below average defense (he is old now of course).
I just think it would make for great cinema and seems like exactly the type of move Lucchino would love (attempt #2). As long as the contact was close to the minimum it may be worth a look-see if 3B is still Middlebrooks, Cecchini, etc. come spring training.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 5, 2014 2:32:30 GMT -5
I say this in seriousness, not a joke..
Bringing Billy Mueller out of retirement and trying him at 3b would be a better option than Alex Rodriquez ever putting on a Sox uniform.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2014 7:02:06 GMT -5
Just wanted to throw it out there: If the Yankees, Arod and the union come to some type of buy-out agreement (my money is on a very awkward spring training for the Yankees....again) then is it worth kicking the tires on Arod? based on his last two years of play, he appears to be somewhere around a 2-win player with an average-ish bat and below average defense (he is old now of course). I just think it would make for great cinema and seems like exactly the type of move Lucchino would love (attempt #2). As long as the contact was close to the minimum it may be worth a look-see if 3B is still Middlebrooks, Cecchini, etc. come spring training. Why throw it out here? It's not even a remote possibility. A totally overpaid cancer of a player who can't play defense anymore and at this point is uncertain as to how good his offense is as he approaches 40? I'd rather drag Wade Boggs out of retirement.
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Post by urgent on Oct 5, 2014 12:24:14 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2014 7:10:04 GMT -5
Pretty sure that paying premium 3B dollars for a fat future DH that is OPSing .739 isn't on the list of things to do this winter. He only has value at 3B.
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 7, 2014 11:13:31 GMT -5
Unless I'm wrong no one has actually reported the Red Sox have serious interest in Sandoval. I think it's just people who overrate Sandoval connecting the dots.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 7, 2014 11:25:05 GMT -5
Unless I'm wrong no one has actually reported the Red Sox have serious interest in Sandoval. I think it's just people who overrate Sandoval connecting the dots. Nick Cafardo, who is a Sox beat writer, speculated that the Sox would have interest in Sandoval since he can hit left-handed. Others have indicated the same. You won't find any quotable report on Sox interest until the season ends and he becomes a FA as this would be considered tampering.
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Post by jmei on Oct 7, 2014 12:06:16 GMT -5
I've mentioned this before, but the reason I'm worried about Sandoval has less to do with his weight (though that is certainly a relevant factor), and more to do with the fact that he's succeeded despite some of the worst plate discipline in the league. He leads the league in swinging at pitches outside the zone this year, and is second (between A.J. Pierzynski and Josh Hamilton) over the last three years. A look at his swing% heatmaps shows that he'll basically swing at any pitch remotely near the zone (compare his heatmap to Chase Headley's, for example). He's still had offensive success because he's elite at making contact on pitches outside the zone ( 22nd highest o-contact% over the last three years), which his contact% heatmap illustrates. He can even drive pitches outside the zone for power, and is especially adept at hitting for power versus low pitches. Players with his sort of plate discipline profile can certainly have success, as guys like Adam Jones and Carlos Gomez have shown (though, foreshadowing: note that these guys hit for top-end power and are good defenders at up-the-middle positions, neither of which applies to Pablo). However, players who chase a lot but make a lot of contact generally age very, very poorly. Making contact on pitches outside the zone is one of those skills that just drops off a cliff as a hitter gets older (coincidentally, starting at the age Sandoval will be in the first year of his new contract), as this chart illustrates: That makes a lot of intuitive sense-- as a player's bat speed slows down, they can no longer adjust to pitches outside the zone as well. They start swinging through those pitches that they used to be able to foul off or even drive for power, which means they strike out more and hit for less power/BABIP. Think Josh Hamilton in recent years. Now, it's possible to counter that by making corresponding improvements in plate discipline (i.e., to chase less), but I'm pretty pessimistic on Sandoval's ability to adjust. He's basically made no improvement in the quality of pitches he swings at since he's entered the league, this despite pitchers throwing him fewer and fewer pitches in the zone, including the lowest zone% in the league this year by a wide margin. There's also the possibility that Sandoval's ability to make contact on pitches outside he zone just lasts longer than the average player, but that's betting on him to have the hand-eye coordination of a Vlad Guerrero or the virtually non-existent aging curve of an Adrian Beltre, and that's not a bet I'd take (especially when taking into account Sandoval's weight/injury issues). So while Sandoval is younger than the average free agent, it also looks like he'll age much faster than most. As a player for whom his bat will be the carrying tool (he's been an average to slightly above-average 3B in the past, but that's almost certainly only going to decline as he gets older), that's a bad sign. The idea of signing him to a five+ year deal (which it will almost certainly take) just seems terrifying, especially if you figure that he has to move off 3B at some point.
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Post by okin15 on Oct 7, 2014 12:11:04 GMT -5
Pretty sure that paying premium 3B dollars for a fat future DH that is OPSing .739 isn't on the list of things to do this winter. He only has value at 3B. Is there a better option though? Donaldson is going to cost too much in prospects. I'm just not sure there's a winner in this pile.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 7, 2014 12:13:51 GMT -5
I think there are arguments that could be made that Headley would be a better signing than Sandoval at the same value. I would probably lean Sandoval at the same cost, but the fact that Headley will come cheaper, less years, and without a draft pick makes it obvious to me. I think Headley is the best fitting free agent target since Napoli prior to the 2013 season, something I was very vocal about at the time. Here's the last four year comparison. It includes Headley's monster 2012 and Sandoval's monster 2011. Puts them at = wrc+, with Headley being a far better defender. It's hard to massage this data in a way that would suggest Sandoval is better than Headley. www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4720,5409 Edit: for some reason the link is cutting out the 5409 part, which I believe is Sandoval being included in the list. You can add him on the leaderboard below or just copy the text into your browser.
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Post by jmei on Oct 7, 2014 12:39:30 GMT -5
Pretty sure that paying premium 3B dollars for a fat future DH that is OPSing .739 isn't on the list of things to do this winter. He only has value at 3B. Is there a better option though? Donaldson is going to cost too much in prospects. I'm just not sure there's a winner in this pile. In terms of the order of preference for me, assuming reasonable contracts/trades, I'd probably go: -Headley -Luis Valbuena -Daniel Murphy -Pedro Alvarez -Aramis Ramirez -(Holt/Middlebrooks/Cecchini) -Sandoval EDIT: after looking at Valbuena a little more closely, I'm bumping him up. He struggled earlier in his career, but that's mostly due to an abnormally low BABIP that is hard to explain (his LD% and IFFB% were roughly league-averagish, so it looks more like bad luck than anything else). He combines good plate discipline with a little pop and solid defense, and Steamer projects him to be a 2.3 win/600 PA player next year. He swings lefty and has two years of cheap team control left (his bad career counting stats will keep his arb awards low), plus will likely be shopped this offseason considering the Cubs' stockpile of infield prospects. Consider me very intrigued.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 7, 2014 12:51:51 GMT -5
Is there a better option though? Donaldson is going to cost too much in prospects. I'm just not sure there's a winner in this pile. In terms of the order of preference for me, assuming reasonable contracts/trades, I'd probably go: -Headley -Luis Valbuena -Daniel Murphy -Pedro Alvarez -Aramis Ramirez -(Holt/Middlebrooks/Cecchini) -Sandoval EDIT: after looking at Valbuena a little more closely, I'm bumping him up. He struggled earlier in his career, but that's mostly due to an abnormally low BABIP that is hard to explain (his LD% and IFFB% were roughly league-averagish, so it looks more like bad luck than anything else). He combines good plate discipline with a little pop and solid defense, and Steamer projects him to be a 2.3 win/600 PA player next year. He swings lefty and has two years of cheap team control left (his bad career counting stats will keep his arb awards low), plus will likely be shopped this offseason considering the Cubs' stockpile of infield prospects. Consider me very intrigued. I hear you on Valbuena, but I don't think he's 'sexy' enough for the FO. After this season I think they feel the need to pull off a fairly big signing/trade.
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