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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 15:13:40 GMT -5
Martin's bat is good but not great (this year's BABIP-fueled bump aside), and it's his defense that really excels. Because of that, he's not someone you sign with the intention of converting him to 1B/DH in year two of an expensive, long-term contract. He's worth $15m+ a year as a catcher, but much, much less than that if he's not behind the plate.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 15:42:06 GMT -5
I'm now irrationally obsessed with the idea of Pedro Alvarez. Yeah, I know all the warts (bad defense, strikes out too much, might be expensive in terms of both trade cost and salary), but man, that power. Somebody talk me out of it. How about the career obp hovering around .300? That do anything for ya? How about the ability to kill a yak... with MIND BULLETS... oh wait that's something else. I'm not convinced that the massive edge in power he has over Cecchini makes him a better option given the superior approach Cecchini would have, likely Avg and OBP advantages, cost savings, etc. That said, in a situation where the team thinks there's something they can tweak and fix him, I would get it, especially with Cheech as a safety net. Yeah, the low OBP is the reason he's not an All-Star guy, but Alvarez compares pretty favorably to Cespedes over the last two years, and we know how much everyone loves Yoenis (note: I did cherry-pick that two year window, but the gap is not that large over a three-year window, and I think their projections would be similar enough going forward). I have a tough time seeing Cecchini as a better overall hitter next year, but I'm pretty low on Cecchini (I think he's optimistically a .260/.340/.360-type). On the topic of something they can tweak-- Alvarez had yips-like problems with throwing to first base in 2014, and if you ignore those extra errors, he's probably close to a league-average third baseman even in a down offensive year. If the Red Sox think that's something they can fix, he becomes a very intriguing guy indeed. He's actually got decent range at 3B for a stockier guy, and he's also got a strong arm, so the errors are really his main defensive bugaboo.
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 1, 2014 16:11:35 GMT -5
How about the career obp hovering around .300? That do anything for ya? How about the ability to kill a yak... with MIND BULLETS... oh wait that's something else. I'm not convinced that the massive edge in power he has over Cecchini makes him a better option given the superior approach Cecchini would have, likely Avg and OBP advantages, cost savings, etc. That said, in a situation where the team thinks there's something they can tweak and fix him, I would get it, especially with Cheech as a safety net. Yeah, the low OBP is the reason he's not an All-Star guy, but Alvarez compares pretty favorably to Cespedes over the last two years, and we know how much everyone loves Yoenis (note: I did cherry-pick that two year window, but the gap is not that large over a three-year window, and I think their projections would be similar enough going forward). I have a tough time seeing Cecchini as a better overall hitter next year, but I'm pretty low on Cecchini (I think he's optimistically a .260/.340/.360-type). On the topic of something they can tweak-- Alvarez had yips-like problems with throwing to first base in 2014, and if you ignore those extra errors, he's probably close to a league-average third baseman even in a down offensive year. If the Red Sox think that's something they can fix, he becomes a very intriguing guy indeed. He's actually got decent range at 3B for a stockier guy, and he's also got a strong arm, so the errors are really his main defensive bugaboo. A real question: Are the yips something that can really be fixed? At least with any sort of predictability? I guess if there is a mechanical tweak to be made, sure, maybe......... However, in addition to the yips, he has a negative UZR/150 every single year at 3rd base in the majors, including a -19 UZR/150 this year, plus previously mentioned bad on-base skills, and 110 errors over a 5 year mlb career, so errors are not exactly a new or unknown thing with Pedro. No thank you.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 16:23:53 GMT -5
Well, it's not clear that this problem (struggles with accuracy with throwing while going to his left) is purely psychological, and it could just be a mechanical flaw. That's admittedly a big unknown, though.
Yes, Alvarez has consistently been a below-average defender, but prior to this year, he was merely a bad defender (-4.5 UZR/150) and not an awful one. You can live with that, considering how good his bat is. If they're serious about needing to get a big left-handed bat (which I don't think has to be the case, but that's another story...), he also happens to be one of the few available at a position of need.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 1, 2014 19:23:12 GMT -5
I'm not so sure I would go with Headley at 4 years / $60 mil when I can probably get Martin for less over the same number of years. We are looking at going with a very young catching staff in a year or so. A key position. What if they both "Bogaert".
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 19:39:38 GMT -5
It's a reasonable comparison to draw, but I think the difference between Headley and Cecchini is greater than the difference between Martin and Vazquez/Swihart, both in the short-term and the long-term. Also, Martin may get more than 4/$60m and may also require you to sacrifice a draft pick.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,806
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Post by nomar on Oct 1, 2014 20:20:54 GMT -5
Martin will undoubtedly get more money than Headley and probably will be worth less. His batted ball rates haven't changed and his BABIP is up .100 points from his average. He's definitely going to be worth less than his deal.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 1, 2014 20:33:15 GMT -5
I'd go with Brock Holt at least to start the season, because:
(1) He put up an OPS of .710 last year. Despite his struggles in August and September, I think that is what he is. Since he will be 27 next year, he might well surpass that, at least next year. While .700 at 3B is not ideal, everybody, even contenders, is less than ideal at a couple positions.
(2) I don't really like any of the FA 3B options enough to sign them to a multi-year deal. I don't think any of them is a sufficient upgrade over Holt to justify taking on another $15 million salary.
(3) According to Alex Speier, the Red Sox have only a little over $50 million for free agents in 2015; half of that will go to a top of the rotation starter. Spending the bulk of the remaining cash on a relatively small upgrade at third doesn't make sense to me. I would prefer the Red Sox invested that money in pitching (and kept some to enable a deadline deal if needed).
(4) I still like Garin Cecchini. No, I don't think he's going to be a star, but I think a reasonable career as a solid, cost-controlled option at third is still very much a possibility. I think he should start at Pawtucket, but a half-year of Brock Holt as a bridge to Cecchini seems like the most reasonable approach, given the Red Sox current payroll and needs.
(5) There is still an option to reevaluate prior to the trade deadline. If the Sox are in contention, and Holt is struggling and Cecchini does not appear ready, they can still make a trade.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 1, 2014 20:44:30 GMT -5
They are one of the teams that do have numerous options available to play 3b next season is one reason to avoid over paying any FA. The team just doesn't need to do like they did with Middlebrooks last season and allow him to stay out there for 2 months after he was proven a failure, then all of a sudden blame it on an injury.. If his wrist was at fault.. Why was he out there the last 2 months of the season? Sounds like baloney to me.
The team has Cecchini, Holt, Coyle will be at Pawtucket and they can give reps to him at Pawtucket if need be.. They can give Middlebrooks another chance if they get desperate even. There are plenty of internal candidates and Holt has hit at the MLB level. Weeks can be the utility guy.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 1, 2014 20:47:24 GMT -5
I think cechini will get his shot at some point. And I think he will hit for more power in the majors than in the minors.
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2014 11:23:01 GMT -5
Another under-the-radar third base option: Trevor Plouffe, whom the Twins might sell high on with Miguel Sano on the horizon.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 11:36:54 GMT -5
MLBtraderumors has Martin projected at 4 years and $50 mil. Teams know the year he had last year is an anomaly. I think it may go to $55 but I don't think he gets a better deal than Headley.
We don't know how things are going to shake down. The bottom line is that our A, B and C options might not sign at the money we have projected. We need to keep all options on the table.
There are a lot of scenarios which could make this team better.
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 2, 2014 11:52:41 GMT -5
Another under-the-radar third base option: Trevor Plouffe, whom the Twins might sell high on with Miguel Sano on the horizon. I appreciate the openness to throw out all the possibilities and consider long-shots. But what I keep coming back to is the need for predictability from any new acquisition at 3rd base. Xander, Castillo, and Vasquez have to be looked at as big offensive question marks for 2015. Not saying the Sox should run away from them, not at all, just saying that any new 3rd baseman has to be super-solid, offensively (and defensively) to avoid any more potential black holes in the lineup. From this short piece, it seems like Plouffe has too short of track record to bank on. Some other year he might make sense, but I don't think he works well for 2015. Although I was first unenthused by the idea of Chase Headley, count me as being on that train. Very good defensively and, while the offensive profile is uneven, he has been great in the past. Even 2014, a down year offensively, he was pretty good after going to MFY. I also assume that he could be moved in a few years if a better option develops. If the Sox are hoping to catch an unproven player on the upswing, might as well stick with Holt or Cecchin; or swing big and get more of a sure thing prospect than we currently have (no, I don't have any ideas on who that would be).
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2014 11:55:31 GMT -5
Let's keep the Headley vs. Martin discussion confined to the catching thread for now, to avoid splitting up the discussion over two different threads.
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2014 11:57:28 GMT -5
Another under-the-radar third base option: Trevor Plouffe, whom the Twins might sell high on with Miguel Sano on the horizon. I appreciate the openness to throw out all the possibilities and consider long-shots. But what I keep coming back to is the need for predictability from any new acquisition at 3rd base. Xander, Castillo, and Vasquez have to be looked at as big offensive question marks for 2015. Not saying the Sox should run away from them, not at all, just saying that any new 3rd baseman has to be super-solid, offensively (and defensively) to avoid any more potential black holes in the lineup. From this short piece, it seems like Plouffe has too short of track record to bank on. Some other year he might make sense, but I don't think he works well for 2015. Although I was first unenthused by the idea of Chase Headley, count me as being on that train. Very good defensively and, while the offensive profile is uneven, he has been great in the past. Even 2014, a down year offensively, he was pretty good after going to MFY. I also assume that he could be moved in a few years if a better option develops. If the Sox are hoping to catch an unproven player on the upswing, might as well stick with Holt or Cecchin; or swing big and get more of a sure thing prospect than we currently have (no, I don't have any ideas on who that would be). That's a good point re: risk profile of any third base upgrades. I wasn't advocating Plouffe, just throwing his name into the ring. Considering his lack of track record, I too have a hard time seeing the Red Sox giving up value to acquire him and make him the 3B starter.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 2, 2014 12:15:18 GMT -5
The Panda looked pretty good last night with two hits and an athletic play on a foul pop. Just sayin'
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 2, 2014 15:04:38 GMT -5
The Panda looked pretty good last night with two hits and an athletic play on a foul pop. Just sayin' I too was pleasantly surprised at his at-bats last night. He actually showed some patience. If his price is reasonable, he may be a nice addition.....but over-paying him and give him too many years is not the way to go. No idea what he is looking for, but 5 years at $12 million a year sounds about right. Would that have any chance?
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 2, 2014 15:18:12 GMT -5
The Panda looked pretty good last night with two hits and an athletic play on a foul pop. Just sayin' I too was pleasantly surprised at his at-bats last night. He actually showed some patience. If his price is reasonable, he may be a nice addition.....but over-paying him and give him too many years is not the way to go. No idea what he is looking for, but 5 years at $12 million a year sounds about right. Would that have any chance? His hitting should be no surprise as he has a career .294 BA in parts of seven seasons. And his fielding is no worse that Middlebrooks. The years on a new contract is a real concern as you point out. Four seems about right for me at 15m per. As has been suggested in previous posts, he could slide over to 1B at the end of Napoli's contract, then to DH after Papi's.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 15:46:00 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 2, 2014 15:48:42 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Oct 2, 2014 17:01:23 GMT -5
I know in the past I've said I could get behind Panda (flexibility mainly) but looking at his numbers (ops+ and RC+) they're going in the wrong direction. Given his weight there's to much risk for me giving him 4 or more years at 15+ mill and a comp pick. Headlys looking more appealing but Daniel Murphy looks like a good place holder to see if Cechini or WMBs can get it together. If we have power with Napoli, Papi and Cespedes we could afford to have a non traditional 3B like Murphy. That's not even counting we would be above average at SS in that regard.
One thing if we sign a Headley to a 3 year deal or so I don't think it means we've given up on Cechini. He could replace a Cespedes down the road and I think get plenty of ABs backing up the corners in both the OF and infield.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 2, 2014 20:44:20 GMT -5
Wouldn't the return of A-Rod temper Cashman's judgement on his third baseman?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 2, 2014 20:48:16 GMT -5
Wouldn't the return of A-Rod temper Cashman's judgement on his third baseman? I don't think so, no. A-Rod is probably a DH or 1B ideally, and Cashman would probably prefer him to go away forever. It feels like Cashman had been trying to acquire Headley since about 1997. Given how much they supposedly like him and the dearth of other options, I think the Yankees are just going to overpay him. Something like 4/$75m maybe. I like Headley a lot (more than most here, for sure) but given how many needs the Red Sox have I think he's going to get too expensive for the type of player he is.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 2, 2014 21:32:07 GMT -5
Brock Holt had a .710 OPS which makes him a league average hitter. He is entering his age 27 year and has a salary of $500,000.
Given that the Red Sox have only $52 million dollars to play with and Lester/Shields/Scherzer will cost over $20 million and leave them still in need of another starter and some bullpen help; taking on a veteran 3B is probably not the best use of resources. The Red Sox are better off going with Holt, hoping Cecchini can replace him by the middle of the year and investing the AAV they do have on pitching.
I am not as down on the Red Sox pitching prospects as some on this site, but I don't see any truly dominating arms among them, meaning I think all of them will experience significant growing pains (before some of them emerge as major league pitchers). I think the Red Sox may have enough hitting as it is -- most teams have at least two below average positions in their lineups -- but there is no way they have anywhere near enough pitching.
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Post by jdb on Oct 2, 2014 21:35:06 GMT -5
I think the Yanks and Phillies trade A Rod for Howard and keep Headley. Each team seems at the end of the line with each.
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