Dave Cameron: Cespedes for Cueto?

Same. I'm too quick to go "ok, sure" to make me think it's anything the Reds would take.

Marshall reeks of Mike Lowell to me.

I'd be jumping for joy if that's all it took to land Cueto for a season. I can't imagine the Reds wouldn't want more than that. I would think that package might have a better shot at landing Latos, not Cueto.

I can see interest Cincinnati's short-term interest in Cespedes for a year, but I would think the Reds would demand either Owens or Rodriguez, potential #2/#3 type starters rather than backend projects like Ranaudo or Webster. Perhaps a Bryce Brentz or a Henry Ramos would be an OF they would look at as well for after Cespedes leaves.

I think there could be a basis of a deal between Boston and Cincy involving Latos/Cespedes or Cueto/Cespedes. It just depends upon how much extra the Sox are willing to give up.

If I'm the Reds I wouldn't trade Cueto for Cespedes straight up, and I wouldn't trade Marshall and a supplemental first round pick for Ranaudo. So it's probably not a realistic deal.

I think you are on the right track here.  The Reds have two problems, no young pitching other than Stephenson, and a bloated major league payroll that is going to hamstring them for years to come if nothing is done.  The Reds do however have a major asset in Cueto, and could mollify their fan base somewhat if a proven major league talent, like Cespedes, is included in the trade.

Marshall is owed $6.5M for next year and taking him on would help their payroll slightly, but not enough to solve the long-term problem.  For that $6.5 you could only get two decent relievers and you can't play in the Gregerson, Miller, Robertson market.  I have suggested in the past taking on Phillips which would make a major dent.  I also think that you need another pitcher in the deal other than the big three(Barnes, Rodriguez, Owens).  A second tier guy like Ranaudo.

I'd give that up if he wasn't expected to sign an extension easily

I think the logic from the Reds angle is that this is sort of a middle ground between full-fledged rebuilding and going for it in 2015 while losing Cueto at the end of the year. This way, they can still contend in 2015, except that they shuffle around their pieces such that they fill a big hole at a position where the FA options are extremely weak (LF) while also shedding some payroll and adding a potential long-term back end rotation option in Ranaudo who can contribute a lot sooner than a 2016 supplemental first-round pick would.

If the Reds do indeed pursue this sort of middle road, I can see this sort of deal appealing to them (though, as mentioned above, perhaps with Johnson/Barnes/etc. in place of Ranaudo). But their front office might go for one of the extreme options instead, either trading Cueto for prospects or keeping him and just playing out 2015 with their rotation intact. Hard to guess what a smallish-market team might be thinking in that scenario-- any of the scenarios holds some appeal, and it just matters on your priorities (i.e., do you need to keep attendance up?, etc).

From Boston's POV, putting off the decision for a year might be to their benefit. At that point, you've hopefully had extended time to evaluate how well Kelly/De La Rosa/Webster perform at the major-league level and the degree to which you can rely on them going forward (you might also include Wright and Barnes in that group). Meanwhile, Owens/Johnson/Rodriguez will have had a full year in Pawtucket, and you get get more of a handle on them as well. At that point, you can more fully decide whether a second long-term commitment to a SP is necessary and/or who might be the best fit. Oh yeah, and next year's SP crop tentatively looks incredibly stacked, with guys like Price, Fister, Zimmermann, Samardzija, Cueto, Iwakuma, Kennedy, Latos, Leake, Porcello, and more (though some of those guys will undoubtedly be extended before then).

I could buy that the pick is slightly more valuable than the player, but you'd have to literally double the value of that pick to have it come close to what you could reasonably expect Ranaudo to produce. Just from a quick googling, it looks like the average 35th pick in the draft produces roughly between two and two-and-a-half wins over his first six years. Even if you want to inflate that a little due to optimism (every front office thinks it's going to draft better than average) and the strategy element, Ranaudo projects to easily surpass that. I honestly don't think a single front office would rather have the pick than Ranaudo, and that's not even taking into account Marshall's contract or the time value of money.

Well, to get Manaea, they took a worse player with their first pick (right?). So it's not that they doubled the comp pick, it's more that they reallocated their pool.

People love upside, so Manaea ranks higher. But he is not the average comp pick and you can't assume every comp pick will get you a prospect of that caliber.

I don't know.  If Cespedes was the price for Lester, he should be enough for Cueto.

If Manaea got hurt again, the Dozier pick would look lackluster too. He's raised concerns as to if he can hit advanced pitching especially in the power department. They passed on guys like Meadows, JP Crawford, and DJ Peterson, all of which look like impact players.

If Dozier is an average 3B and Manaea is a #3/maybe 2 starter, you could ask if they could've gotten the same value drafting a pitcher with the 8th pick and not sacrificing what they had to. Regardless it's all hindsight and it's working out well for the Royals so far.

This, and don't forget the draft pick (and Gomes, I know, but that draft pick is worth far more than Gomes, which adds value coming back).

I think we all agree it takes a better pitcher than Ranaudo at this point, yes?