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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2014 19:40:10 GMT -5
I see Owens as a 2/3, not a 3/4. When you look at his stats they are very good. Has a plus plus change up and a plus to better curve. 88 to 92 fastball with late bite. Projects to have a 90 to 92 fastball as he matures. Can also get his fastball above 92 from time to time. For me his low ranking outlook is due to his fastball not being elite. I'd take a 90-92 fastball with late tail or a 95 fastball with not movement. Owens is our best left handed pitching prospect since Lester. Don't think we'll be disappointed when he reaches the majors. Honestly I don't think a projection of 3-4 is off target and may be high. Regardless, he is presented as our best MILB pitching prospect. That is somewhat discouraging especially given our current MLB lacking. People saying he can hit 94 mph are considerably off the mark. For years SP has been saying that he could add velocity. I have watched him in person over parts of several years and he has had but a very slight velocity uptick. He operates b/t 88 on the low end and very occasionally (once or twice a game) at 92 at the top. The higher reading has been on the Portland gun which has been portrayed as generous. Yes, his stats were great at AA....not so much at AAA. The major leagues??? I question whether, without impeccable command, Owens will be greatly successful against advanced, patient hitters. His curve is very slow and loopy when I have seen it making it seemingly toothless and rendering him more a 2 pitch pitcher. Personally I like Johnson better....a sort of latter day Buerhle. I would think Owens is more of a Buerhle type then Johnson. Johnson fastball is like 95.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 4, 2014 20:40:57 GMT -5
I saw Johnson at Salem early last season and he was hitting 92 max that day.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2014 21:00:33 GMT -5
Ok scouting reports say he maxes out at 95, Buerhle has a fastball that tops out at 90 in his prime? He's what 86 to 89 now? Johnson throws harder then Owens, that's my point.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 4, 2014 21:58:56 GMT -5
Ok scouting reports say he maxes out at 95, Buerhle has a fastball that tops out at 90 in his prime? He's what 86 to 89 now? Johnson throws harder then Owens, that's my point. Guys I believe that Johnson sits in the high 80s, very low 90s at the max.. He is definitely not a 95 guy. What he does have is very good command for his level. He is a potential high-end Buerhle for me.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2014 22:02:53 GMT -5
Honestly I don't think a projection of 3-4 is off target and may be high. Regardless, he is presented as our best MILB pitching prospect. That is somewhat discouraging especially given our current MLB lacking. People saying he can hit 94 mph are considerably off the mark. For years SP has been saying that he could add velocity. I have watched him in person over parts of several years and he has had but a very slight velocity uptick. He operates b/t 88 on the low end and very occasionally (once or twice a game) at 92 at the top. The higher reading has been on the Portland gun which has been portrayed as generous. Yes, his stats were great at AA....not so much at AAA. The major leagues??? I question whether, without impeccable command, Owens will be greatly successful against advanced, patient hitters. His curve is very slow and loopy when I have seen it making it seemingly toothless and rendering him more a 2 pitch pitcher. Personally I like Johnson better....a sort of latter day Buerhle. I would think Owens is more of a Buerhle type then Johnson. Johnson fastball is like 95. Duse, you realize there's more to scouting a pitcher than his fastball velo, right? The reason Johnson gets (inaccurate) Buerhle comps is because he throws four pitches and has above-average command. Owens has two and a half pitches and has middling command-- he's nothing at all like Buerhle, except that they're both lefties.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2014 22:18:45 GMT -5
By the way, I hate that every soft-tossing lefty with command gets Buerhle/Moyer comps while every analogous right gets Maddux comps.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2014 22:55:41 GMT -5
I would think Owens is more of a Buerhle type then Johnson. Johnson fastball is like 95. Duse, you realize there's more to scouting a pitcher than his fastball velo, right? The reason Johnson gets (inaccurate) Buerhle comps is because he throws four pitches and has above-average command. Owens has two and a half pitches and has middling command-- he's nothing at all like Buerhle, except that they're both lefties. When I think Buerhle I think of soft tossing lefty. Yes I didn't take command into account my bad. On the other hand Per your scouting reports at Sox Prospects, Owens has a plus plus change, Plus to better Curve ball and a fastball with late tail that hitters have a hard time picking up. Johnson has Fastball with downward movement and tail, Curveball solid average, Change up average and Slider below average. Buerhle has above average off speed pitches, like Owens, not Johnson.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2014 22:59:54 GMT -5
Owens' curveball is very inconsistent and is solid-average at best. Johnson is the guy with four average-to-better pitches, which is why he gets Buerhle comps.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2014 23:31:19 GMT -5
Owens' curveball is very inconsistent and is solid-average at best. Johnson is the guy with four average-to-better pitches, which is why he gets Buerhle comps. OK good to know. I only have your scouting reports to go by and it seems they haven't been updated since Johnson and Owens were drafted.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 5, 2014 0:08:59 GMT -5
Owens' curveball is very inconsistent and is solid-average at best. Johnson is the guy with four average-to-better pitches, which is why he gets Buerhle comps. and Johnson works very quickly from what I've heard, much like Buerhle
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 5, 2014 1:07:07 GMT -5
Comps are comps. They really mean nothing. Comp every pitcher to Maddox for all I care. My motto, you're a top 5 pitcher in the system, you're a starter. Johnson has that potential, and I like that.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Dec 5, 2014 1:22:27 GMT -5
Buerhle basically took zero time to adjust to MLB hitters. He walked fewer batters than Johnson (by a little bit), but Johnson seems like he may do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. That would be huge, because any starter that is good at limiting both BBs and HRs will have a long successful career. I see Johnson as a high floor, back-end innings eater, which is very valuable. If he does end up reaching his ceiling it would be quite the overlooked draft pick for BC.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 5, 2014 7:12:20 GMT -5
I see Owens as a 2/3, not a 3/4. When you look at his stats they are very good. Has a plus plus change up and a plus to better curve. 88 to 92 fastball with late bite. Projects to have a 90 to 92 fastball as he matures. Can also get his fastball above 92 from time to time. For me his low ranking outlook is due to his fastball not being elite. I'd take a 90-92 fastball with late tail or a 95 fastball with not movement. Owens is our best left handed pitching prospect since Lester. Don't think we'll be disappointed when he reaches the majors. Honestly I don't think a projection of 3-4 is off target and may be high. Regardless, he is presented as our best MILB pitching prospect. That is somewhat discouraging especially given our current MLB lacking. People saying he can hit 94 mph are considerably off the mark. For years SP has been saying that he could add velocity. I have watched him in person over parts of several years and he has had but a very slight velocity uptick. He operates b/t 88 on the low end and very occasionally (once or twice a game) at 92 at the top. The higher reading has been on the Portland gun which has been portrayed as generous. Yes, his stats were great at AA....not so much at AAA. The major leagues??? I question whether, without impeccable command, Owens will be greatly successful against advanced, patient hitters. His curve is very slow and loopy when I have seen it making it seemingly toothless and rendering him more a 2 pitch pitcher. Personally I like Johnson better....a sort of latter day Buerhle. Do you truly think his performance is not so great at AAA? BB/9 2.8 KK/9 10.4 H/9 7.6 Age difference -5.9 I know you are not his fan. But don't distort the truth.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2014 7:19:28 GMT -5
Owens gave up a ton of home runs in Pawtucket, which hurt his ERA. That could be small sample noise, or it could be more advanced hitters catching up to him. Time will tell.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2014 7:34:49 GMT -5
I don't think it's all that fair to judge young pitchers' performances as they approach their innings limits. It looked like Owens hit a wall at the end of the season which is pretty normal.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2014 8:40:47 GMT -5
Cafardo stated uncategorically yesterday on MLB radio with Russo while talking all things Sox that Boston turned down an Owens for Samardijza trade with the Cubs this past summer before. Now, it is Cafardo, but he did not equivocate. If true (and we'll prob never know) turn that around in your brain for a moment. I know the value of a 3/4 in today's game, but I also know some orgs can fall in love with certain guys and over-value them. Let's hope that's not the case here. Why don't you try turning it around a bit. If true, it's possible that the Cubs prefer him to Addison Russel. If true, it also most likely means both the Cubs feel he has a high ceiling than what publications like BA and BP do. Who knows players better? It's funny because a publication will comment about his lower spot in the rotation, but then rank him in the top 25. When have you ever seen a likely mid rotation guy who's in AAA ranked that high? Owens is an enigma to most.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2014 10:06:39 GMT -5
Owens' curveball is very inconsistent and is solid-average at best. Johnson is the guy with four average-to-better pitches, which is why he gets Buerhle comps. OK good to know. I only have your scouting reports to go by and it seems they haven't been updated since Johnson and Owens were drafted. You're also reading them wrong, fwiw. Saying a pitch has "plus-to-better potential" doesn't mean the pitch is plus-to-better now.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 5, 2014 10:16:53 GMT -5
Having watched Owens pitch in Portland I have to say that while he got swing and misses on his curve ball I do not think he gets Major League Hitters out with it - YET -. I think they pick it up pretty good. When I was in the stands behind the plate I always new when he was throwing the curve from his body language and arm angle. Seemed easy to pick up. But it was good enough for/in AA.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2014 12:02:06 GMT -5
Cafardo stated uncategorically yesterday on MLB radio with Russo while talking all things Sox that Boston turned down an Owens for Samardijza trade with the Cubs this past summer before. Now, it is Cafardo, but he did not equivocate. If true (and we'll prob never know) turn that around in your brain for a moment. I know the value of a 3/4 in today's game, but I also know some orgs can fall in love with certain guys and over-value them. Let's hope that's not the case here. Why don't you try turning it around a bit. If true, it's possible that the Cubs prefer him to Addison Russel. If true, it also most likely means both the Cubs feel he has a high ceiling than what publications like BA and BP do. Who knows players better? It's funny because a publication will comment about his lower spot in the rotation, but then rank him in the top 25. When have you ever seen a likely mid rotation guy who's in AAA ranked that high? Owens is an enigma to most. Yeah, we're talking about a pitcher that is easily top 5 for LHP and probably not far outside the top 10 of all pitchers.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 5, 2014 14:52:13 GMT -5
Owens' curveball is very inconsistent and is solid-average at best. Johnson is the guy with four average-to-better pitches, which is why he gets Buerhle comps. and Johnson works very quickly from what I've heard, much like Buerhle Johnson also appears to have a somewhat similar frame...which, altho not related to pitching, conjured up the image.
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Post by sammo420 on Dec 5, 2014 20:26:16 GMT -5
ADD: For those interested, here's the Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/89 or later) list: 1) Mookie Betts 2) Xander Bogaerts 3) Blake Swihart 4) Henry Owens 5) Manuel Margot 6) Eduardo Rodriguez 7) Rafael Devers 8) Christian Vazquez 9) Michael Chavis 10) Matt Barnes At the time of the signing, who among us thought Mookie would ever surpass Xander in anything? I remember one person on here liking the signing and everybody else was indifferent.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 9, 2014 12:59:18 GMT -5
Owens gave up a ton of home runs in Pawtucket, which hurt his ERA. That could be small sample noise, or it could be more advanced hitters catching up to him. Time will tell. Ok. He gave up 0.9 HR/9 in Pawtucket. Did he allow tons of HRs?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 9, 2014 13:04:15 GMT -5
Owens gave up a ton of home runs in Pawtucket, which hurt his ERA. That could be small sample noise, or it could be more advanced hitters catching up to him. Time will tell. Ok. He gave up 0.9 HR/9 in Pawtucket. Did he allow tons of HRs? Maybe not tons of HRs (although I think that sentiment came from giving up four in his final four starts, plus one in his first postseason start). But he did allow 14 XBH in his final five starts after a great first start in Pawtucket, then another seven in his two playoff starts, so he was getting hit kind of hard, at least for him.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2014 14:59:47 GMT -5
I've said this before, but is it fair to put a lot of stock in young pitchers' performances at the edge of their innings limit? Most seem to crap out at the end.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2014 15:13:29 GMT -5
I've said this before, but is it fair to put a lot of stock in young pitchers' performances at the edge of their innings limit? Most seem to crap out at the end. Is "it depends" a copout? The knock with Owens has been his fastball command, and he started to suffer for that more in Triple-A. His fastball was hit very hard in the playoff start in Syracuse that I saw. I'm not sure the problems he had were fatigue-based. There's no reason to write him off or whatever, but thinking that an adjustment will be necessary isn't crazy.
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