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Report: Red Sox have agreement for Wade Miley
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Post by ramireja on Dec 12, 2014 19:22:12 GMT -5
RT @nickpiecoro Hearing that infielder Raymel Flores could be the third player in the Wade Miley trade. That's the best possible outcome we could have hoped for. Agreed....lets hope its true There are probably something like 60-70 prospects in this system that I have an interest in, and an irrational hope that they might become a major leaguer. Raymel Flores is luckily not one of them.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 12, 2014 19:41:45 GMT -5
RT @nickpiecoro Hearing that infielder Raymel Flores could be the third player in the Wade Miley trade. That's the best possible outcome we could have hoped for. Absolutely. He was moved over to 2B I believe, in favor of my man Mauricio Dubon, so it really wasn't a needed piece.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 12, 2014 19:56:31 GMT -5
The Miley deal is oficial. And the 3rd player is indeed Flores.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 12, 2014 20:38:14 GMT -5
The Buchholz hypothesis is that whenever he gets hurt, when he returns he pitches poorly at first and then improves. That's not a behavioral outlier. I mean, I have a complementary but irrelevant hypothesis that says he eats and breathes and sometimes looks at porn. I agree there is merit to your hypothesis. However I'm a bit of a physical culture enthusiast, and your theory about causation seems sound for the most part. The only knock against it is that pitching is inherently bad for the body (any athletic movement taken to elite levels and repeated is bad), and Clay isn't exactly an example of "excellent physical condition"
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 12, 2014 20:56:40 GMT -5
RT @nickpiecoro Hearing that infielder Raymel Flores could be the third player in the Wade Miley trade. That's the best possible outcome we could have hoped for. Yeah. I honestly didn't even know who Raymel Flores was when I first read the name ... took me a little bit to drag up the memory. So, yep, fine with me... Dave Stewart: "We want Rijo or Guerra." Cherington: "You're going to get Raymel Flores, and you're going to like it!"
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2014 20:59:49 GMT -5
Whatever. Can't complain about Flores going as the 3rd piece in the deal.
Solid deal overall.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 12, 2014 21:08:23 GMT -5
Fine by me. Solid deal and could be even better if Miley hits his prime in the typical age range for it.
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 12, 2014 21:20:09 GMT -5
Quote from Roto, "He is prone to the long ball though, having surrendered at least 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and the move to Fenway Park is unlikely to alleviate that problem." Can we take a step back from calling this guy a good #3? Would bet anyone he's a 4+ ERA pitcher for us.
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2014 21:23:46 GMT -5
Quote from Roto, "He is prone to the long ball though, having surrendered at least 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and the move to Fenway Park is unlikely to alleviate that problem." Can we take a step back from calling this guy a good #3? Would bet anyone he's a 4+ ERA pitcher for us. Park factors by home run friendliness: Chase Field, 7th; Fenway Park, 27th ( source) HR/9, career: 1.13 home, 0.69 away
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 12, 2014 21:34:37 GMT -5
Quote from Roto, "He is prone to the long ball though, having surrendered at least 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and the move to Fenway Park is unlikely to alleviate that problem." Can we take a step back from calling this guy a good #3? Would bet anyone he's a 4+ ERA pitcher for us. Park factors by home run friendliness: Chase Field, 7th; Fenway Park, 27th ( source) HR/9, career: 1.13 home, 0.69 away Wow, didn't know Fenway was that low. Nice post man. Where do you see Miley's average HR allowed total settling at? Low teens?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2014 22:18:55 GMT -5
Whatever. Can't complain about Flores going as the 3rd piece in the deal. Solid deal overall. I was actually arguing at one point that Flores belonged at the end of the top 60, but he faded a bit ... an interesting guy, but maybe the 70 or 75th guy in the system. I haven't been able to find any evidence that Miley's decline over his three years was due to a familiarity effect, but I'm going to take one more look.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2014 23:01:03 GMT -5
The more I think about this deal the more I like it. Now that it's Flores as the 3rd piece and the deal is official, the Sox did well. Hopefully getting away from Arizona will help keep the ball in the ballpark for Miley. Solid move by Ben.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 12, 2014 23:43:12 GMT -5
Whatever. Can't complain about Flores going as the 3rd piece in the deal. Solid deal overall. I was actually arguing at one point that Flores belonged at the end of the top 60, but he faded a bit ... an interesting guy, but maybe the 70 or 75th guy in the system. I haven't been able to find any evidence that Miley's decline over his three years was due to a familiarity effect, but I'm going to take one more look.Not claiming causation, but I found one thing interesting on his fangraphs page that coincided with his slight decline. Wade Miley average pitch speed: Fastball2011: 90.3 2012: 90.9 2013: 91.0 2014: 91.2 Slider2011: 78.7 2012: 81.6 2013: 83.5 2014: 85.4 Curveball2011: 74.3 2012: 75.8 2013: 76.5 2014: 77.6 Changeup2011: 79.0 2012: 81.0 2013: 82.8 2014: 82.6
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 12, 2014 23:48:13 GMT -5
Officially a great trade. Ben is having a terrific offseason (even if I'm still not a huge fan of the Pablo signing).
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Post by Coreno on Dec 13, 2014 0:44:50 GMT -5
Saw Flores this summer in Lowell. I like the kid but he's nothing more than a lottery ticket at this point. I also see Arizona has already announced RDLR and Webster as their 3 and 4... Should be an interesting year in the desert.
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Post by bookiemetts on Dec 13, 2014 2:47:58 GMT -5
So I was looking at Miley's stats a little bit closer, and I'm not really sure what to make of them (from Fangraphs). He is generating more swings and misses both inside the strike zone and outside of it and is striking out more people as a result. His BABIP against really increased last season, even though he gave up less line drives than previous seasons. The really huge differences are really the increased walk rate and HR% on fly balls. At first I thought the increased HR% may be due to the field in Arizona, but man if you look here: hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_3471&type=pitcherand select the Fenway Park overlay, that looks a little bit concerning. Now this doesn't give the height of the homeruns and thus isn't perfect, but pitching at Fenway might not have helped him much last season. The only good thing about pitching at Fenway is that he won't have to face Scott van Slyke much next year. That guy was absolute death to Miley. He might have some issues with power hitting right handed hitters with big splits (ie. Donaldson, Adam Jones etc.). Overall the thing is if he can keep increasing his GB% and K-rate he should improve on his previous seasons. But if he can't fix the HR problems or walks that may be difficult.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2014 4:44:56 GMT -5
Officially a great trade. Ben is having a terrific offseason (even if I'm still not a huge fan of the Pablo signing). To me, it's still a strange sideways move until they trade Kelly and prospects for an ace. Only then does it become solid. When the season ended, I was satisfied that New Ace, New #2, Buchholz, Kelly, and RDLR / Wright / kids starting in July would be a great rotation. Buchholz and Kelly are very risky, though, and although I personally had a lot of confidence in that 5th starter combo platter, it's reasonable to disagree and argue that it's risky, too. Well, look what they've got now: Rick Porcello, 4 bWAR in 31 GS last year, and four guys who started 103 games between them and totaled -2.3 bWAR. You really want three low-risk, small-variance guys, and two high risk, large-variance guys, not the other way around. Right now, Buchholz, Kelly, and Masterson are all massively risky. What they've done here, it seems to me, is sign Masterson to replace Kelly as one of two acceptable risky guys, thus freeing up Kelly to add to the pool of talent they can use to get Zimmermann, Iwakuma, Price, Cueto, or Hamels (or Fister if none of those prove doable). I think that trading RDLR for Miley might prove to be less of a talent upgrade in that rotation slot than it seems now, but it also reduces risk and, of course, gives them at least one LHP.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 13, 2014 6:03:32 GMT -5
Look on the bright side... Wright's path to the #6 starter spot has been cleared up considerably.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2014 10:15:31 GMT -5
At first I thought the increased HR% may be due to the field in Arizona, but man if you look here: hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_3471&type=pitcherand select the Fenway Park overlay, that looks a little bit concerning. Now this doesn't give the height of the homeruns and thus isn't perfect, but pitching at Fenway might not have helped him much last season. You hit the nail on the head-- overlays are pretty useless for left field home runs in Fenway because they don't take into account the height of the wall. The distance between home plate and the monster actually makes it the closest left field wall in baseball, but it also happens to be the tallest left field wall in baseball. That makes overlays really misleading because the where home runs are plotted is there they end up at ground level, but with the monster, there's a good chance a lot of those home runs are wall-ball doubles.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 13, 2014 10:27:37 GMT -5
To me, it's still a strange sideways move until they trade Kelly and prospects for an ace. Only then does it become solid. When the season ended, I was satisfied that New Ace, New #2, Buchholz, Kelly, and RDLR / Wright / kids starting in July would be a great rotation. Buchholz and Kelly are very risky, though, and although I personally had a lot of confidence in that 5th starter combo platter, it's reasonable to disagree and argue that it's risky, too. Sideways? That's not fair man, what are they moving sideways from? A week ago the Red Sox had no rotation whatsoever. They acquired 3 affordable and very solid pitchers without giving pretty much anything for it. And how is Kelly risky? I'll give you Buchholz, but Kelly? Worst case scenario he's an average starter. Oh, and about "new ace, new #2", I'd totally be satisfied with Summer Glau and Olivia Wilde. It's fun to think about, but in no way it's doable unless a LOT was given up (in my case, my immortal soul). What they've done here, it seems to me, is sign Masterson to replace Kelly as one of two acceptable risky guys, thus freeing up Kelly to add to the pool of talent they can use to get Zimmermann, Iwakuma, Price, Cueto, or Hamels (or Fister if none of those prove doable). I think that trading RDLR for Miley might prove to be less of a talent upgrade in that rotation slot than it seems now, but it also reduces risk and, of course, gives them at least one LHP. Masterson does not replace Kelly, he complements Kelly. He fills up another rotation spot. He replaces that red "Acquisition" dude we had until recently. And yeah, I also had fallen for the RDLR siren song ("he has great stuff, he could be an ace with good control, that two seamer dear god, the Punto trade"), but in reality he was not a very good pitcher and his most likely upside is Wade Miley. As someone has said, why not trade someone that could be Wade Miley for Wade Miley himself?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 13, 2014 10:56:26 GMT -5
My initial reaction to the Miley acquisition was, "We gave up Rubby and Webster for this stiff?", but after really looking through it the deal has grown on me some. I think Miley is a solid 2 win pitcher who has proven durability and 3-win upside and one likely (though not definitely) outlier 4-fWAR season in his recent past.
And while I still feel Rubby and Webster have a chance individually to be better than Miley, their ability to hold up for a full season is still in question.
My concern coming out of this trade is more with the bullpen. While neither Rubby nor Webster were being counted on for the bullpen, they both have the stuff where they could have rapidly ascended to an important role in the pen. Their presence was one of the primary reason I was not particularly concerned with bringing in more proven bullpen options. It isn't a huge issue, because I view Escobar as a potential shut down lefty and Barnes' stuff would also play up in the pen if called upon, but the depth hit there is worth noting.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2014 11:16:38 GMT -5
I was thinking that they traded them before they had the trade value of relievers, plus cleared up a huge log jam of starters a little.
Unrelated point - if Miley is throwing harder and it's not working as well, I think that's coachable. Maybe he didn't trust his defense enough to pitch to contact and was trying to get more k's.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 13, 2014 11:27:47 GMT -5
I'm not exactly an expert with advanced statistics, but there has to be some value in a guy that may not be the greatest pitcher in the league, but that gives you 200 IP at with average stats that shows up somewhere.
Like say Miley gave us 200IP at 1.8 WAR, but Rubby could have given us 150 IP at 1.5 WAR. That might suggest that Rubby was the better pitcher but those 50 extra innings pitched are extremely valuable is there anything to account for that?
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 13, 2014 11:57:18 GMT -5
Like say Miley gave us 200IP at 1.8 WAR, but Rubby could have given us 150 IP at 1.5 WAR. That might suggest that Rubby was the better pitcher but those 50 extra innings pitched are extremely valuable is there anything to account for that? It depends how good your depth is, i.e. if those missing 50 innings have to be pitched by a replacement-level pitcher, then yes, Miley is better, but if you think Wright/Webster/Barnes/whoever can give you at least 0.3 WAR in those 50 innings you'd rather have Rubby.
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Post by Sammy on Dec 13, 2014 21:02:25 GMT -5
Great point, wish there was a magic number like rWAR above 4.50 or something. For me an Ace is a pitcher you feel can compete and win against other teams Aces. For example, most advance stats don't show Lester as an Ace, but he steps his game up in the big games. Look at his post season numbers, they are flat out dominant. If my team has Lester pitching a must win game against any other starter in the League, I feel confident that Lester can pitch us to a win. I know some poster on here refer to there being only 12 ACES in all of baseball, I disagree. I think the number is much higher and is closer to 24 then 12. Lester doesn't step up his game in the post-season -- he has an arsenal that is unusually effective against elite hitters relative to bad ones. Other #2 starters get their value from shutting down lesser hitters while being not all that tough on the best ones (statistically, you can use #3 and #4 hitters as a proxy for them); Lester is tough on those top hitters for a guy whose overall performance is #2 level. So he is unusually good against elite, i.e, post-season caliber lineups, which have more than two guys who could ht 3 or 4 in an ordinary lineup. Eric, thanks, interesting observation about Lester. Can you elaborate on why he has that unusual effectiveness against elite hitters? Do you mean that his stuff plays up equally as well against middle of the order hitters as lesser hitters, or does it actually narrow the gap between, say, Joey Bats and JP Arencibia? Is it all about the cutter? I remember one guy who pitched about 200 miles southwest of here who also had a pretty good track record with the cutter in playoffs and close and late situations.
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