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Report: Justin Masterson returns to Boston (1 yr/$9.5mm)
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2014 21:01:21 GMT -5
Danr, I don't know why you need to start up the "headcase" debate again at all, but I especially don't know why you want to do so in the Masterson thread.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 11, 2014 21:41:31 GMT -5
I like this. I'm going to steal this.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2014 0:19:25 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz and Hamels may have equal ceilings, but Buchholz is inconsistent. He has periods where he completely loses it and it takes him a while to get it back. A lot of this may have to do with injury, but he's pretty much been useless a good amount of his career. You can't compare Buchholz and Hamel's by taking their best three years. Camels is a horse and he's at least above average every single year. Buchholz can't string two good years together, let alone stay completely healthy for one. Clay's highest number of starts in a season is 29 and highest number of innings is 189 IP. Cole Hamels hasn't started less than 30 games or 190 IP since 2007, the year Buchholz broke into the league. You can compare the average of Buchholz and Hamels' best 3 seasons, but Hamels' career average year is a hell of a lot closer to that best 3 year average than Buchholz is to his. They're on completely different planes. If everything went perfect for them, they might put up similar seasons value-wise, but chances are that won't happen for Buchholz. I know every single one of these things. Everyone knows every single one of these things. I didn't remotely suggest the converse to any one of these things by pointing out how good Buchholz has been at the top of his game. And that's all I wanted to do, because too many people here seem to be oblivious to it in a way that at times strikes me as almost surreal. I've lost count of the number of times that people on this board recently have dropped phrases like "trade Buchholz or Kelly," as if the two are roughly equivalent. It's like saying "just give away the Jaguar or the Mini Cooper" in order to make room in the garage for a Tesla. The Jag has spent, and is probably going to spend, way too much time in the shop, and the Mini is rather mysteriously better than it ought to be, but only an easily frustrated hothead would give away the Jag, because it's obviously twice the car, at least. One thing I love about the Masterson signing is that it's running a natural psychological experiment. Pitcher A: 3.4 bWAR in 2014, injured -1.7 in 2014, now signed for $9.5M million for 2015 to largely positive responses as a great buy-low opportunity. Pitcher B: 4.3 bWAR in 2013*, injured -1.6 in 2014, already signed for 2015 for $12M (but just $7.5 AAV) with team options for $13M and $13.5M, seems to be a leading candidate as a player to dump.
*In just 16 GS! Player A: 5.8 aWAR in 2013, injured 0.3 in 2014, already signed for $13M for 2015, wins the poll for player to dump, even though it would probably mean eating half the contract. Inescapable conclusion: as demonstrated by pitcher A, if Victorino and Buchholz played for other teams, people would be all over this board hoping we could steal them for loose change on the dollar after their down seasons. They are two obvious terrific buy-low candidates ... whom we already own. But people who have been frustrated and disappointed by their down seasons are reacting with emotion rather than reason (all too human a thing to do); they don't want to dump them to make the team better, they want to dump them because they can't stand the thought of experiencing those emotions again (regardless of the chances of it happening) and are in fact experiencing negative emotions, right now, that are really about that possibility. (That actual felt negative emotion, for the most part, being that you just don't like that guy any longer. You don't like the idea of him playing for the Sox in 2015. But that dislike is not based on any kind of analysis of his likely value, even though it may seem that way to you until you examine it more closely; it's based on the fact that you stopped liking the guy after he hugely let you down. Which, I repeat, is a natural thing to do.) I find it the single most tiresome thing about this board this winter, far and away. It's so driven by emotion rather than reason that it does not lead to fruitful discussions. Dumping Shane or Clay is often offered up as a thing to do without a provided rationale, as if it were obvious to everyone that it was reasonable (a good indicator of an emotionally driven response). When any kind of argument is given, it either assumes (explicitly or implicitly) that they'll have another bad year, or assumes that the downside risk is to be avoided, without examining how big it is. (Keeping Victorino, for instance, has almost no downside risk; if he gets hurt again, he solves your logjam, and if he's healthy, he has a very good chance of being your starting RF.) I don't want to discourage folks at all from posting based on their gut feelings -- that would be a dull board indeed! But it would make for a better board if, when those gut feelings are challenged by attempts at reasoned argument, people could engage at that level.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2014 0:42:37 GMT -5
I like this. I'm going to steal this. There's a classic neurobiology joke that the hypothalamus controls the 4 F's: feeding, fighting, fleeing, and ... mating. But I know I've heard a version in a movie or TV show where the speaker is doing the straight, non-joke version, only realizes just in time that there's a young child in earshot: "feeding, fighting, fleeing, and fu...n-having." The voice I hear is Sarah Michelle Gellar as Buffy, and I'd credit that as my inspiration if I could think of a reason why Buffy Summers would possibly know that! (Maybe showing off her college education in season 4 ...)
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Post by jclmontana on Dec 12, 2014 0:45:05 GMT -5
The reasonably high floors that one can expect from Kelly, Porcello, and Miley allow the Sox to roll the dice on Masterson and Buchholz. The latter two pitchers have tantalizing upside, but obvious inconsistencies year to year. Risk has to be managed in a rotation, but, unless you have a couple of pitchers who are clearly 1/ 1A types, teams are well served to take risks on a few high reward types. I think the acquisition of three "safe" pitchers (stretching the definition of safe) means that Bucky is not going anywhere, not unless and until he thoroughly poops the bed over a long stretch of the season.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 12, 2014 8:13:57 GMT -5
Victorino: 5.8 aWAR in 2013, injured 0.3 in 2014, already signed for $13M for 2015, wins the poll for player to dump, even though it would probably mean eating half the contract. I think the #1 reason people want to dump Victorino is because he blocks Mookie
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Post by mannofsteele on Dec 12, 2014 8:40:12 GMT -5
Victorino: 5.8 aWAR in 2013, injured 0.3 in 2014, already signed for $13M for 2015, wins the poll for player to dump, even though it would probably mean eating half the contract. I think the #1 reason people want to dump Victorino is because he blocks Mookie Sounds about right, and honestly...dumping Craig makes more sense. Victorino if healthy is a heck of a back up play with Nava for the outfield. No one is going to want to touch his 13 AAV without the Sox covering what, 8.5-9 per say?
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Post by soxfan1615 on Dec 12, 2014 8:50:25 GMT -5
I think the #1 reason people want to dump Victorino is because he blocks Mookie Sounds about right, and honestly...dumping Craig makes more sense. Victorino if healthy is a heck of a back up play with Nava for the outfield. No one is going to want to touch his 13 AAV without the Sox covering what, 8.5-9 per say? Craig is under control for 3 years and is cheaper. I think dumping Victorino makes more sense because even if Castillo goes down we can slide Mookie to CF and play Craig or Nava in RF
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2014 9:26:26 GMT -5
Let's keep this discussion to Masterson.
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Post by suttree on Dec 12, 2014 11:59:18 GMT -5
You get what you pay for. I'm a big Masterson fan and hope he can regain some of that groundball magic. Generally speaking there haven't been too many starting pitching reclamation projects that worked out for the Red Sox in the last 10 years.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 12, 2014 16:47:33 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: According to Masterson, oblique injury in ‘13 led to mechanical issues, which led to knee injury in ’14, which led to velocity drop #RedSox”
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Post by ramireja on Dec 12, 2014 16:51:55 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: According to Masterson, oblique injury in ‘13 led to mechanical issues, which led to knee injury in ’14, which led to velocity drop #RedSox” Lets hope velocity drop didn't lead to overthrowing, which doesn't lead to elbow or should injury.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 12, 2014 17:15:45 GMT -5
Some interesting data re Masterson W-L 60-72 ERA 4.24 ERA+ 94 Best years his rookie year, with Boston, 147, 2011 122 and 2013 110 FIP 3.89 WHIP: 1.387 HR9 .7 K9 7.6 W9 3.7 BABIP .303 fWAR career 14.6, best years 2011 4.03, 2013 3.5
Splits 2914 LHB BA .320 OPS .910 RHB BA .239 OPS .729 Career LHB BA .287 OPS .794 RHB BA .220 OPS .607
Curiously, in his career, and this past season, he has faced more lefthand batters than righthanders. In his career he has faced about 25 % more LHBs than RHBs.
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Post by onbase on Dec 12, 2014 17:44:45 GMT -5
Attempting to keep this Masterson relevant ... My concern with Clay is that his brilliant pitching and his injuries are related because doing what he does when he's unhittable is more than his less that beefy physique can handle. This is a guess on my part, so you can pile on for lack of analysis, but it could explain his history.
Masterson is a bigger stronger guy. I don't know what caused his injury, but I'd hope that the right off season program, which I've read somewhere he is following, can heal what was injured and what was injured by protecting the original injury, and that he can start fresh in ST. Though I'm not sure if his future is bullpen or rotation, I give him a good chance to be a good pitcher again, though obviously he is never going to be the Jag.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Dec 12, 2014 18:34:43 GMT -5
Some interesting data re Masterson W-L 60-72 ERA 4.24 ERA+ 94 Best years his rookie year, with Boston, 147, 2011 122 and 2013 110 FIP 3.89 WHIP: 1.387 HR9 .7 K9 7.6 W9 3.7 BABIP .303 fWAR career 14.6, best years 2011 4.03, 2013 3.5 Splits 2914 LHB BA .320 OPS .910 RHB BA .239 OPS .729 Career LHB BA .287 OPS .794 RHB BA .220 OPS .607 Curiously, in his career, and this past season, he has faced more lefthand batters than righthanders. In his career he has faced about 25 % more LHBs than RHBs. My guess is because managers generally play the splits heavily against him due to his consistent struggles against LHB.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2014 22:54:56 GMT -5
Masterson is one of those players who I have troubletroubl discussing rationally, because I just really really like him. He is one of my favorite players, and, by all accounts, a standup guy as well.
Incidentally, he is the player who led to me discovering SoxProspects. He dominated at the 06 Futures at Fenway with Lowell. I think he struck out five of the six batters he faced, if memory serves. I went home and Googled him, bringing me here.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 13, 2014 6:58:25 GMT -5
Masterson is one of those players who I have troubletroubl discussing rationally, because I just really really like him. He is one of my favorite players, and, by all accounts, a standup guy as well. Incidentally, he is the player who led to me discovering SoxProspects. He dominated at the 06 Futures at Fenway with Lowell. I think he struck out five of the six batters he faced, if memory serves. I went home and Googled him, bringing me here. I was at his first major league start. That was pretty cool for me even if the people I was with didn't know anything about him. (Side note: Craig Hanson could have been soooo good. ) I'm glad he's back on a short term deal. I really like the guy, but I want to see that his health issues aren't permanent.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 6:57:28 GMT -5
Victorino: 5.8 aWAR in 2013, injured 0.3 in 2014, already signed for $13M for 2015, wins the poll for player to dump, even though it would probably mean eating half the contract. I think the #1 reason people want to dump Victorino is because he blocks Mookie If Victorino is healthy in ST and looks great, it's Castillo who'll lose PT, not Mookie. If anyone thinks that anything is threatening Mookie's PT next year, they're not being rational. There's a scenario where the starting OF is Hanley, Mookie, and Shane, while Rusney (is there a better OF quartet of first names?) is a 4th OF who plays all three positions and gets 400 PA.
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