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Post by James Dunne on Feb 4, 2015 13:59:45 GMT -5
I know it's not the exercise here but what's actually a more important point than how they are ranked is which one would you rather have. No way would I trade Swihart for Moncada and I'd trade Moncada for Swihart in a flash. How come?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 6:40:39 GMT -5
Mainly because of the rarity of top prospects that are catchers and also somewhat proximity to the majors. With Moncada there's still a possibility that he can't handle upper level pitching, stranger things have happened on the road to AA. I'm guessing Swihart's current trade value is close or higher than Kris Bryant, for example, even though Bryant is the better overall prospect because he's a third baseman and there are a lot more quality third base prospects than quality catching prospects or even major league players.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 5, 2015 7:13:41 GMT -5
I was under the impression that the rankings typically adjust for position like you're doing a second time. I guess I could be wrong.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 7:21:23 GMT -5
The rankings don't adjust for trade value. There's a difference. Using my example, how many teams have a good alternative to Swihart vs how many teams have a good alternative to Bryant.
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Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2015 7:21:39 GMT -5
I just don't think it is true that catching prospects are rarer than other prospects or that this makes them have more trade value. There's also reason to believe that the opposite is true and that catching prospects are slightly less valuable since even the most durable catchers top out at around 140 games played.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 7:35:27 GMT -5
Here's a challenge for the stats guys. The second ranked catcher is generally Austin Hedges. Find me something in his stats that says his absolute offensive ceiling is as high as Vazquez 2014 major league numbers.
Now look at Bryant, then look at Gallo, Sano, Peterson, Franco, Lamb and even Devers for that matter. Then look around the majors at catchers vs any other position.
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Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2015 7:49:47 GMT -5
Why would you only look at offense when you're comparing the best defensive prospect at the position with the highest positional adjustment to a bunch of players who are or are likely to be first basemen? Hedges has more than three wins of defensive value than those guys, and that's not even taking into account framing.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2015 7:58:38 GMT -5
I was under the impression that the rankings typically adjust for position like you're doing a second time. I guess I could be wrong. No you are correct.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 5, 2015 8:00:11 GMT -5
Would you trade Bogaerts for Swihart? Because it seems like the same arguments would be applicable.
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Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2015 8:11:02 GMT -5
Here's a quick comparison.
Last year, even though most starting catchers play fewer games than non-catcher starters, there were 17 players who accumulated two or more fWAR as a catcher.
Of players at other positions to hit that mark, there were: -12 first basemen -11 second basemen -16 shortstops -20 third basemen -13 RF -21 CF -15 LF -3 DH
Hard to argue that, when you take into account defensive value, good catchers are any rarer than good players at any other position.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 8:33:49 GMT -5
We need to isolate since those questions involve team composition which is pretty much where Swihart gets the added boost. It assumes multiple teams that have a need. So to Isolate, If I had Swihart and didn't have an alternative but also didn't have a SS, I would not trade Swihart for Xander. The same holds true for Betts. That doesn't mean that I think Swihart will out WAR either, my reasoning is the replacement.
I'm guessing the general consensus here would be quite different if Vazquez wasn't also here.
And bringing up a defensive catcher like Hedges was ummmm intentional, I could have used Alfonso who might be a better hitter than Swihart but is likely to have a Lavarnwayesqe future. Swihart is plus on both sides. Buster Posey tool kit but hopefully won't be run over by a freight train.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 8:35:30 GMT -5
Here's a quick comparison. Last year, even though most starting catchers play fewer games than non-catcher starters, there were 17 players who accumulated two or more fWAR as a catcher. Of players at other positions to hit that mark, there were: -12 first basemen -11 second basemen -16 shortstops -20 third basemen -13 RF -21 CF -15 LF -3 DH Hard to argue that, when you take into account defensive value, good catchers are any rarer than good players at any other position. Subtract out fWAR's position adjustment and then tell me the numbers. In this case stats are leveling an uneven playing field. Look at the average slash lines for catchers. If you had an average batter at catcher, he would be a significantly above average catcher assuming he was an average defensive catcher.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 5, 2015 8:41:21 GMT -5
Swihart wouldn't be near the Top 20 prospects on offense alone, though. If he had the same bat and player third, he would be borderline top 40, maybe. You are giving him double credit for being a catcher.
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Post by jmei on Feb 5, 2015 8:50:00 GMT -5
Here's a quick comparison. Last year, even though most starting catchers play fewer games than non-catcher starters, there were 17 players who accumulated two or more fWAR as a catcher. Of players at other positions to hit that mark, there were: -12 first basemen -11 second basemen -16 shortstops -20 third basemen -13 RF -21 CF -15 LF -3 DH Hard to argue that, when you take into account defensive value, good catchers are any rarer than good players at any other position. Subtract out fWAR's position adjustment and then tell me the numbers. It doesn't even really matter what the positional adjustment is if we're comparing apples to apples (catchers to other catchers, 1B to other 1B, etc.). The point is that the pool of catchers is not as shallow as you're suggesting.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 8:55:42 GMT -5
Swihart wouldn't be near the Top 20 prospects on offense alone, though. If he had the same bat and player third, he would be borderline top 40, maybe. You are giving him double credit for being a catcher. We're talking trade value. The value of a trade chip is highly dependent on what other chips are out there. There just aren't any relatively plus 2 way catchers out there, either in the majors or on the loading dock. Example, Lets say the White Sox decide they are going to move Sale for a cost controlled catcher. Who could come close to Swihart ? Now same scenario except they need a shortop. Lots of teams can offer someone in the range of Bogarts or 3B Bryant or OF Betts.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 9:10:34 GMT -5
Take a look at the top catching prospect lists. When the 3rd or 4th best catching prospect is a catcher that was drafted in 2014 as an outfielder and scouts don't know if he can stick at catcher, that should be saying volumes (Schwarber).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 5, 2015 9:21:47 GMT -5
Take a look at the top catching prospect lists. When the 3rd or 4th best catching prospect is a catcher that was drafted in 2014 as an outfielder and scouts don't know if he can stick at catcher, that should be saying volumes (Schwarber). That still doesn't mean Swihart is worth more than a guy who might OPS .900 at SS. I mean you can compare someone like Troy Tulowitski to Yadier Molina and Troy is worth way more on a per-game basis. Same deal with Mike Trout in LF. It really comes down to exactly how great each player is and how much better they are than others who play the same position than it is about positional scarcity.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 10:22:02 GMT -5
Take a look at the top catching prospect lists. When the 3rd or 4th best catching prospect is a catcher that was drafted in 2014 as an outfielder and scouts don't know if he can stick at catcher, that should be saying volumes (Schwarber). That still doesn't mean Swihart is worth more than a guy who might OPS .900 at SS. I mean you can compare someone like Troy Tulowitski to Yadier Molina and Troy is worth way more on a per-game basis. Same deal with Mike Trout in LF. It really comes down to exactly how great each player is and how much better they are than others who play the same position than it is about positional scarcity. Exactly but [quality] positional scarcity makes the average difference between plan A and plan B vary considerably which in turn drives up the value of the quality player in the scarce position. To me, bottom line, Ben is likely to be in an incredible trade situation next off-season because you can count me into the group that thinks what you can get in return for a starter is worth more than what value you will get by using that starter in a back-up role. LOL, time (or past time) for me to drop the point. I'm guessing we all know each other's view of the situation.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 5, 2015 10:33:05 GMT -5
That still doesn't mean Swihart is worth more than a guy who might OPS .900 at SS. I mean you can compare someone like Troy Tulowitski to Yadier Molina and Troy is worth way more on a per-game basis. Same deal with Mike Trout in LF. It really comes down to exactly how great each player is and how much better they are than others who play the same position than it is about positional scarcity. Exactly but [quality] positional scarcity makes the average difference between plan A and plan B vary considerably which in turn drives up the value of the quality player in the scarce position. To me, bottom line, Ben is likely to be in an incredible trade situation next off-season because you can count me into the group that thinks what you can get in return for a starter is worth more than what value you will get by using that starter in a back-up role. LOL, time (or past time) for me to drop the point. I'm guessing we all know each other's view of the situation. Positional scarcity in the minors isn't the same as the majors though, which is important to think about as you're really more worried about what you will get.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 5, 2015 10:58:45 GMT -5
Not sure this has been posted yet. BA's revised top 10 prospect list compiled by Alex Speier 1. Blake Swihart, c 2. Henry Owens, lhp 3. Rusney Castillo, of 4. Eduardo Rodriguez, lhp 5. Brian Johnson, lhp 6. Rafael Devers, 3b 7. Manuel Margot, of 8. Matt Barnes, rhp 9. Deven Marrero, ss 10. Garin Cecchini, 3b/of www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2015 11:11:11 GMT -5
Two components to price, supply and demand. As demand rises, price rises or as in this case, as supply falls, prices rise. That's pretty basic economics. Adam Smith was obviously a baseball fan.
Interesting that Marrero has passed Cecchini at BA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2015 12:31:38 GMT -5
There have not been any changes in the BA list since it was posted earlier this offseason. I'm pretty sure the revisions just accounted for all of the trades there have been this offseason.
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 5, 2015 13:16:35 GMT -5
12 Kopech 13 Ball 14 Travis 15 Stankiewicz 16 ? Wright, maybe (since he'd be worth ranking but maybe not mentioning); or Shaw or Ramos, etc. 17 Guerra 18 Coyle 19 Rijo 20 Asauje
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 5, 2015 14:11:48 GMT -5
Two components to price, supply and demand. As demand rises, price rises or as in this case, as supply falls, prices rise. That's pretty basic economics. Adam Smith was obviously a baseball fan. Interesting that Marrero has passed Cecchini at BA. For the most part, trade value is already reflected in the rankings. The only difference would be the supply and demand of the particular players skills at a given point in time and a team's variant perception of the player. If the Tampa Bay Rays think Steven Souza is a future star, his trade value be going up.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 5, 2015 14:25:50 GMT -5
Or everything the A's did this offseason.
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