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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 4, 2015 14:56:29 GMT -5
Dan Connolly ?@danconnollysun 1h1 hour ago At this point Os roster looks pretty set. The sense is Reimold and McFarland will go to minors, Garcia makes the club.
Roch Kubatko ?@masnroch 1h1 hour ago #orioles still trying to make at least one trade before Monday opener to provide roster relief. Crowded
Orioles announced minor league preliminary rosters - lots of former Red Sox farmhands:
AAA - Almanzar, Bowden, Beato AA - Gibson, Cabral, Doyle
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 15:16:43 GMT -5
If sitting Ortiz versus any team decreases their odds of winning linearly Seems like a pretty implausible assumption. Let's investigate. For simplicity's sake, let's assume the Phillies and Nats muster an equally good starting pitcher (in reality this could only be Hamels, in which case it's unclear that Ortiz is actually better than Napoli, but I don't want to make this too complicated). Against this starting pitcher, let's assume the Red Sox are expected to score 4.5 runs/game with Napoli and 4.6 runs/game with Ortiz. Say the Phillies are expected to score 3.5 runs/game against the Red Sox. Let's check the Sox' pythagorean winning percentage. For simplicity, I'll use n=2 as the exponent rather than n=1.82. P(Napoli) = 4.5²/(3.5²+4.5²) = .6231 P(Ortiz) = 4.6²/(3.5²+4.6²) = .6333 P(Ortiz) - P(Napoli) = .0103 Now let's say the Nats are expected to score 4.6 runs/game against the Red Sox. P(Napoli) = 4.5²/(4.6²+4.5²) = .4890 P(Ortiz) = 4.6²/(4.6²+4.6²) = .5000 P(Ortiz) - P(Napoli) = .0110 My conclusion: a game against an equally matched opponent has a higher leverage WRT using your best lineup than a game against a clearly inferior (or superior) opponent.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2015 18:57:41 GMT -5
It still doesn't make sense to me to go to Philly with 24 guys. I dunno ... you basically play every game with 21 guys, since the other four are starters who can't pitch that day. If you look at Wright as taking Kelly's place in the rotation, it makes sense, if they're going with a five man rotation. But, does the 10 day rule for recalling guys after they get optioned apply to the beginning of the season? They'll never say it, but Wright also doubles as a long guy who can relieve Masterson and pitch a few innings if he gets knocked out early, which is likelier than is usual for a team's game 3 starter. So even if Kelly is fine in his Monday tune-up, the roster machinations are essentially adding an extra bullpen guy for that game (and for the opener in NYC).
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Post by thursty on Apr 4, 2015 19:48:01 GMT -5
Maybe it's just me, but I can't shake this nagging feeling that Mookie's marked change in approach is a bit too drastic.
Some of the qualities that made (make) him such a high floor prospect (plate discipline, line drives to right field seemingly at will, et al), have been glaringly absent this spring (who would have ever thought that you would have heard "can't walk your way to Fenway" from Mookie's mouth?).
Now you can't argue with the results, and maybe it's just spring training and/or the pressures of having to win the job, but I find the 180 change jarring and discomfiting; yes, I felt he was too passive last year, but that should have changed organically as he learned the pitchers and figured out when to jump pitchers grooving fastballs to get ahead in the count.
Maybe you can't walk your way to Fenway, but you can't 5-3/6-3 your way there either.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 4, 2015 19:57:04 GMT -5
Maybe it's just me, but I can't shake this nagging feeling that Mookie's marked change in approach is a bit too drastic. Some of the qualities that made (make) him such a high floor prospect (plate discipline, line drives to right field seemingly at will, et al), have been glaringly absent this spring (who would have ever thought that you would have heard "can't walk your way to Fenway" from Mookie's mouth?). Now you can't argue with the results, and maybe it's just spring training and/or the pressures of having to win the job, but I find the 180 change jarring and discomfiting; yes, I felt he was too passive last year, but that should have changed organically as he learned the pitchers and figured out when to jump pitchers grooving fastballs to get ahead in the count. Maybe you can't walk your way to Fenway, but you can't 5-3/6-3 your way there either. It's just you. Players don't walk a lot when they're hitting .500
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 4, 2015 20:01:27 GMT -5
Except for Ted Williams.
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Post by jmei on Apr 4, 2015 21:15:13 GMT -5
Maybe it's just me, but I can't shake this nagging feeling that Mookie's marked change in approach is a bit too drastic. Some of the qualities that made (make) him such a high floor prospect (plate discipline, line drives to right field seemingly at will, et al), have been glaringly absent this spring (who would have ever thought that you would have heard "can't walk your way to Fenway" from Mookie's mouth?). Now you can't argue with the results, and maybe it's just spring training and/or the pressures of having to win the job, but I find the 180 change jarring and discomfiting; yes, I felt he was too passive last year, but that should have changed organically as he learned the pitchers and figured out when to jump pitchers grooving fastballs to get ahead in the count. Maybe you can't walk your way to Fenway, but you can't 5-3/6-3 your way there either. I'm waiting to see the extent to which it carries over to the regular season. He clearly has the raw tools for plate discipline (pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, reflexes, bat speed), so it really does seem like a conscious decision for him, unlike a guy like Middlebrook. If he can just turn that aggression on and off, he should be able to make the necessary adjustments if guys start pitching him outside the zone more regularly. Like you said, it's an equilibrium, and this is the kind of thing where the small samples of Spring Training can exaggerate things.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 5, 2015 6:17:02 GMT -5
I've been worried about this too, and hoping JMei is right.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 5, 2015 7:38:31 GMT -5
I think he does have enough selectivity to do just that. I'd need to get hold of the game logs, but his spring training walks all seen to have come in the latter part, after battering pitchers so hard that they stopped throwing him much. Another piece of anecdotal evidence is the way he started his minor league career, walking to the tune of a .200 isolated power rate to go with a batting average that was just about at the same level!
One of the first interviews I read with the guy, he talked about how he backed off from that passivity, apparently a conscious decision on his part. Right after that he started on that crazy trajectory that carried him to the majors. I wondered then if his uncle wasn't advising him. In any case, I'm not very worried about it.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 5, 2015 7:54:35 GMT -5
Spring training is ovah, happy mlb opening day!
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 5, 2015 8:14:45 GMT -5
I've been worried about this too, and hoping JMei is right. Yeah, there is definitely nothing to worry about. If Mookie's walk rate declines by any significant amount, I'm willing to bet it comes with a jump in batting average and power. His pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination is just to good for it not to.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 5, 2015 9:20:18 GMT -5
Speaking of Philly, I've been thinking about it and ... is there really a reason to have Ortiz play a game at 1B? Yes. And that is because he is the team's best hitter. Sure, there's a defensive drop-off from Napoli to Ortiz, but it's not like we're talking about shortstop. However, Napoli is a significantly better hitter than Ortiz vs. LHP, so Napoli should start the opener against Hamels.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Apr 5, 2015 9:44:49 GMT -5
Yes. And that is because he is the team's best hitter. Sure, there's a defensive drop-off from Napoli to Ortiz, but it's not like we're talking about shortstop. However, Napoli is a significantly better hitter than Ortiz vs. LHP, so Napoli should start the opener against Hamels. Mid-season, I couldn't agree more. But Big Papi has earned the right to get the nod on opening day.
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Post by jmei on Apr 5, 2015 10:07:17 GMT -5
I think Hamels has pretty neutral splits because he relies heavily on his changeup, though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2015 10:47:47 GMT -5
However, Napoli is a significantly better hitter than Ortiz vs. LHP, so Napoli should start the opener against Hamels. Mid-season, I couldn't agree more. But Big Papi has earned the right to get the nod on opening day. And before someone says this doesn't matter, it does to the players. BTW, per the Sox game notes, Ortiz will tie Harry Hooper for seventh-most opening day starts tomorrow at 11. 1. Yaz, 22 (!!!) 2. Dewey Evans, 17 3. Jim Rice, 14 T-4. Doerr, Williams, 13 6. Petrocelli, 12 7. Hooper, 11 8. Ortiz, Boggs, DiMaggio, Varitek, 10
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 5, 2015 11:57:41 GMT -5
Buchholz' 22/4 K/BB ratio is really encouraging for spring.
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