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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 6, 2015 22:14:28 GMT -5
Baltimore and Toronto both lost tonight.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 7, 2015 2:28:25 GMT -5
Since I've got a spreadsheet ... I can't help but run down how smart or stupid the AS rosters are.
Which I've now moved to (of all wacky places) the thread on the All-Star selections!
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2015 6:26:37 GMT -5
Hopefully Ben Cherington is the next GM that shows up on his caller ID. No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 7, 2015 9:55:28 GMT -5
Hopefully Ben Cherington is the next GM that shows up on his caller ID. No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. 3.69 ZiPS projected ERA. He was legitimately solid before this year.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 7, 2015 10:46:16 GMT -5
No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. Is that the most important criteria at this time though? We have 2 guys that people around here are calling for their heads every time they pitch and this may be an opportunity to replace them. He will probably be more important to other teams so I don't see him coming here, but his xFIP and SIERA should be lesser factors, given our bullpen composition.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2015 12:02:11 GMT -5
Hopefully Ben Cherington is the next GM that shows up on his caller ID. No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. ...in 23 innings. He has a long history of being a good pitcher.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2015 12:05:23 GMT -5
And Jon Lester gets his first MLB hit off of... ...John Lackey. Asked if he would autograph the ball from Lester’s first hit, Lackey nodded. “I’ll autograph it,” Lackey said before meeting Lester later Monday night after the game, “and I’ll put, ‘You lost,’ too.” (from 108 Stitches)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2015 12:07:52 GMT -5
No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. ...in 23 innings. He has a long history of being a good pitcher. 14.4% BB rate, 17.3% K rate He's 37. He might just be close to done.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2015 12:21:13 GMT -5
...in 23 innings. He has a long history of being a good pitcher. 14.4% BB rate, 17.3% K rate He's 37. He might just be close to done. It's not like that is different info -you just posted the components of his FIP. I'm not saying he has been good, just that there isn't enough if a sample to call it meaningful.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2015 12:24:52 GMT -5
14.4% BB rate, 17.3% K rate He's 37. He might just be close to done. It's not like that is different info -you just posted the components of his FIP. I'm not saying he has been good, just that there isn't enough if a sample to call it meaningful. Well I guess you cannot possibly evaluate relief pitchers with any stats then? You could have said the same thing about Mujica.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2015 12:42:18 GMT -5
Just skimmed Frasor's pitch(fx) info at Brooks and I'm not seeing any obvious reasons why he's been poor this year (although I note his Zone Profiles aren't loading for me). Any ideas?
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 7, 2015 13:21:23 GMT -5
Frasor isn't an ideal option, but he is absolutely a better option than a few of the guys wasting space in the bullpen right now. Plus he is AL East tested for whatever that's worth. Plus he costs' nothing but money, and unless I'm wrong, the Sox should have one of the top spots to claim him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2015 15:33:08 GMT -5
It's not like that is different info -you just posted the components of his FIP. I'm not saying he has been good, just that there isn't enough if a sample to call it meaningful. Well I guess you cannot possibly evaluate relief pitchers with any stats then? You could have said the same thing about Mujica. I mean if his FIP was like 8.00 then I would think something was up. But if you took two of his walks and made them Ks then his FIP drops to like 3.50 and he's the pitcher he has always been. When a couple of events alter the statistical profile so drastically the you can't use those stats to project forward with any confidence. Mujica kinda stunk last year and was inconsistent in 2013. If Mujica had a season like Frasor did last year then they wouldn't have cut bait in early May.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2015 15:57:35 GMT -5
Well I guess you cannot possibly evaluate relief pitchers with any stats then? You could have said the same thing about Mujica. I mean if his FIP was like 8.00 then I would think something was up. But if you took two of his walks and made them Ks then his FIP drops to like 3.50 and he's the pitcher he has always been. When a couple of events alter the statistical profile so drastically the you can't use those stats to project forward with any confidence. Mujica kinda stunk last year and was inconsistent in 2013. If Mujica had a season like Frasor did last year then they wouldn't have cut bait in early May. There are a lot of events that are contributing to his bad xFIP, a low HR rate and a 90.4% LOB% which is unbelievably high for someone with a 1.67 WHIP and not many K's. And we're not even talking about park adjusted stats which would be pretty significant moving from KC to Boston.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2015 16:06:30 GMT -5
I mean if his FIP was like 8.00 then I would think something was up. But if you took two of his walks and made them Ks then his FIP drops to like 3.50 and he's the pitcher he has always been. When a couple of events alter the statistical profile so drastically the you can't use those stats to project forward with any confidence. Mujica kinda stunk last year and was inconsistent in 2013. If Mujica had a season like Frasor did last year then they wouldn't have cut bait in early May. There are a lot of events that are contributing to his bad xFIP, a low HR rate and a 90.4% LOB% which is unbelievably high for someone with a 1.67 WHIP and not many K's. And we're not even talking about park adjusted stats which would be pretty significant moving from KC to Boston. Well, I don't necessarily feel strongly either way, but he made all of 12 appearances in Kansas City, pitching 11 1/3 innings. Also, I just learned that the LOB% on Fangraphs doesn't use actual LOB data but instead approximates it. I don't get it. www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/lob/
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 7, 2015 16:13:49 GMT -5
Paul Goldschmidt on pace for a 40/30 season as a 1B. I think Bagwell is only other guy to do that (twice).
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2015 16:56:51 GMT -5
I don't understand why a high LOB% means those 23 innings are more meaningful than they otherwise would be. If he was only stranding like 50% of runners, and he had a 6.50 ERA and a 4.02 FIP, I'd feel the exact same way about him - that he's been pretty mediocre this year, but not for a large enough sample to make me think his other data points don't still apply.
Since the start of 2013 (119 IP) he has a 3.46 FIP. Even pushing back a year further and including his less-good 2012 campaign, it's 3.63. Absent any change in his scouting profile, that's about the pitcher I'd expect him to be. That'd be an improvement on the Red Sox bullpen, though whether the improvement would be worth clearing a 40-man spot and all that jazz is probably a fair question. Personally I'd probably sign Frasor, DFA Breslow, option Barnes, move Masterson to the bullpen and call up Johnson. But then again I'd have DFA'd Breslow to make room for Gorzelanny, who has accepted a Triple-A assignment from Detroit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2015 17:09:38 GMT -5
FWIW, Masterson is already in the bullpen, at least through the break.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,344
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Post by radiohix on Jul 8, 2015 22:39:35 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2015 23:05:20 GMT -5
Jays lose on an Adam Eaton HR in the 11th.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2015 9:34:24 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2015 9:20:57 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 11, 2015 17:44:00 GMT -5
“@iraheatbeat: Marlins saying Dee Gordon has a dislocated left thumb.”
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 12, 2015 18:07:01 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2015 7:24:42 GMT -5
So the new HR Derby format is about a million times better than the old one.
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