Post by dcsoxfan on Apr 26, 2015 9:08:46 GMT -5
Losses like last night can be depressing, but I still think there are more positives than negatives on the season so far:
Despite not hitting, the Red Sox are two games above .500 and tied for first. The hitting will improve.
The Red Sox have walked significantly more than their opponents and struck out far less -- in the end I think that is predictive.
It's still way too early to write off Uehara. It's April, and it's not uncommon for pitchers to need a few weeks to get to peak velocity. Plus he did miss much of Spring Training. He is not sharp -- as last night's hanging splitter demonstrates -- but he may just need a little time.
The Allen Craig experiment should probably be nearing its end. I thought (and posted) that he was a very risky acquisition. His batting numbers have, IMO, always been a bit inflated as a result of arriving at various levels at a later age than most. He always struck me as a rapid collapse risk. While four years of Joe Kelly always struck me as a reasonable replacement for a year and two months of John Lackey (and I obviously am even more convinced of that), Allen Craig has the potential to be $25 million of AAV drag (spread over three years). However, outfield production will eventually improve: Rusney Castillo and JBJ will make it to Boston some time this year.
Pablo Sandoval will, I think, be fine, but again this was a poor signing (IMO). While I think Brock Holt's best role is a utility player, and he would probably be at best an average 3B, the difference between him and Sandoval is not worth the $20 million AAV hit. Nonetheless, I don't think this contract will hurt the team this year.
I think the offense will be better. I think Betts will make the adjustments, and I believe in Rusney Castillo. I think Napoli, Ortiz and Nava will eventually hit closer to their established career norms. I also think, despite some poor numbers, the starting pitching has actually looked better than expected. Buccholz, Kelly and Masterson are all sporting encouraging peripherals.
So while I don't see this team as a 100 win powerhouse, I see a team that should compete for a wild card and that has enough young talent to evolve into a powerhouse a year or two down the road. Given that a wild card team has basically a 6.25% chance of winning the World Series and a division champ has essentially a 12.5% chance of winning the world series, I think the Red Sox current course is the right one. I would not be trading potential stars (Margot, Devers, Rodriguez) to improve my odds of winning the world series by 6%.
Despite not hitting, the Red Sox are two games above .500 and tied for first. The hitting will improve.
The Red Sox have walked significantly more than their opponents and struck out far less -- in the end I think that is predictive.
It's still way too early to write off Uehara. It's April, and it's not uncommon for pitchers to need a few weeks to get to peak velocity. Plus he did miss much of Spring Training. He is not sharp -- as last night's hanging splitter demonstrates -- but he may just need a little time.
The Allen Craig experiment should probably be nearing its end. I thought (and posted) that he was a very risky acquisition. His batting numbers have, IMO, always been a bit inflated as a result of arriving at various levels at a later age than most. He always struck me as a rapid collapse risk. While four years of Joe Kelly always struck me as a reasonable replacement for a year and two months of John Lackey (and I obviously am even more convinced of that), Allen Craig has the potential to be $25 million of AAV drag (spread over three years). However, outfield production will eventually improve: Rusney Castillo and JBJ will make it to Boston some time this year.
Pablo Sandoval will, I think, be fine, but again this was a poor signing (IMO). While I think Brock Holt's best role is a utility player, and he would probably be at best an average 3B, the difference between him and Sandoval is not worth the $20 million AAV hit. Nonetheless, I don't think this contract will hurt the team this year.
I think the offense will be better. I think Betts will make the adjustments, and I believe in Rusney Castillo. I think Napoli, Ortiz and Nava will eventually hit closer to their established career norms. I also think, despite some poor numbers, the starting pitching has actually looked better than expected. Buccholz, Kelly and Masterson are all sporting encouraging peripherals.
So while I don't see this team as a 100 win powerhouse, I see a team that should compete for a wild card and that has enough young talent to evolve into a powerhouse a year or two down the road. Given that a wild card team has basically a 6.25% chance of winning the World Series and a division champ has essentially a 12.5% chance of winning the world series, I think the Red Sox current course is the right one. I would not be trading potential stars (Margot, Devers, Rodriguez) to improve my odds of winning the world series by 6%.