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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2014 10:53:43 GMT -5
Yeah, I just didn't think that there would be many players with that profile who've had much success. But I looked at it a little more closely, and there are more players with that profile than I initially thought. Guys with similar peripherals include:
-Gregor Blanco: career 11.6% BB, 19.9% K, .080 ISO, 93 wRC+ -Dustin Ackley: career 9.0% BB, 18.6% K, .112 ISO, 88 wRC+ -Michael Bourn: career 8.4% BB, 20.7% K, .095 ISO, 93 wRC+ -Everth Cabrera: career 8.8% BB, 20.8% K, .090 ISO, 89 wRC+ -Brandon Crawford: career 8.1% BB, 18.5% K, .117 ISO, 86 wRC+ -A.J. Ellis: career 11.9% BB, 18.5% K, .118 ISO, 104 wRC+
Of course, all those players (perhaps except Ackley) are also above-average-to-elite defensive players at positions higher on the defensive spectrum, and many also contribute significant value on the basepaths.
But it does show that a player can maintain that sort of offensive profile in the majors, and a slightly below-league-average bat would play reasonably well if he sticks at 3B. But if he's forced to LF or 1B, a 90-ish wRC+ just won't cut it as a starter. He might still be a useful bench player, though, as a lefty who can play 1B/3B/LF/RF and put up an above-average line versus righties would have some appeal (think Eric Hinske).
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 5, 2014 12:29:02 GMT -5
I'm curious as to "why" he displays so little power. He is a big guy obviously, with decent bat speed (supposedly) but displays Iglesias power. When I have seen him, it appeared that his swing was 'controlled' in that he didn't really load up even in hitters counts. To me the swing did not look particularly aggressive....more languid like Lars Anderson. Watching on TV recently it looked to me that he has more of an arm swing...sort of the opposite of the wristy/handsy Youkilis....and maybe dragging the bat thru the zone. Does he not use his hips and lower body? Does he display BP power? What are the Sox doing with him to generate more power if anyone knows?
Without a productive, to-be-feared bat that OBP is dropping too. Once again I note that he appears to me to have something of a hole on inside pitches (beyond the usual "blind spot" for lefties).
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2014 12:48:56 GMT -5
The predominant explanation I hear is that he has a flat swing path that's more geared for line drives and ground balls than fly balls. His ground ball percentages has always been on the high side (44.7% this year, 48.1% last year in Portland, 50% last year in Salem; league-average in the majors this year is 45.5%), for instance. The fact that he doesn't have much load in his swing is something you see in scouting reports as well, as is the fact that he doesn't use his lower half much in his swing.
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Post by godot on Jun 5, 2014 14:40:52 GMT -5
I'm curious as to "why" he displays so little power. He is a big guy obviously, with decent bat speed (supposedly) but displays Iglesias power. When I have seen him, it appeared that his swing was 'controlled' in that he didn't really load up even in hitters counts. To me the swing did not look particularly aggressive....more languid like Lars Anderson. Watching on TV recently it looked to me that he has more of an arm swing...sort of the opposite of the wristy/handsy Youkilis....and maybe dragging the bat thru the zone. Does he not use his hips and lower body? Does he display BP power? What are the Sox doing with him to generate more power if anyone knows? Without a productive, to-be-feared bat that OBP is dropping too. Once again I note that he appears to me to have something of a hole on inside pitches (beyond the usual "blind spot" for lefties). Answers my question. Usually if a big guy like him does not show power or drive, It often means they do not know how to use lower body. Hard to believe that he did not develop this skill, or the Sox did not try to teach him. He may have to hit a wall before he changes, if he can.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 5, 2014 17:43:59 GMT -5
He may have to hit a wall before he changes, if he can. Fortunately there's a wall in LF at Fenway Park.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 6, 2014 9:07:41 GMT -5
The predominant explanation I hear is that he has a flat swing path that's more geared for line drives and ground balls than fly balls. His ground ball percentages has always been on the high side (44.7% this year, 48.1% last year in Portland, 50% last year in Salem; league-average in the majors this year is 45.5%), for instance. The fact that he doesn't have much load in his swing is something you see in scouting reports as well, as is the fact that he doesn't use his lower half much in his swing. How correctable are these things? Are they (some of them) minor tweaks that he can likely incorporate with completely messing him up?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 6, 2014 15:38:40 GMT -5
The predominant explanation I hear is that he has a flat swing path that's more geared for line drives and ground balls than fly balls. His ground ball percentages has always been on the high side (44.7% this year, 48.1% last year in Portland, 50% last year in Salem; league-average in the majors this year is 45.5%), for instance. The fact that he doesn't have much load in his swing is something you see in scouting reports as well, as is the fact that he doesn't use his lower half much in his swing. How correctable are these things? Are they (some of them) minor tweaks that he can likely incorporate with completely messing him up? It's a complete re-do of his swing.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 7, 2014 15:16:10 GMT -5
Is it really? That doesn't sound intuitive at all. I'm not saying you're wrong, but if he just needs a little more loft, a slightly inclined swing path, wouldn't that be more of minor adjustment?
Either way, curious as to how doable it is? Will the Sox ever really ask this of him? Are there other examples of guys who made this adjustment successfully?
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Post by jmei on Jun 7, 2014 15:53:37 GMT -5
Is it really? That doesn't sound intuitive at all. I'm not saying you're wrong, but if he just needs a little more loft, a slightly inclined swing path, wouldn't that be more of minor adjustment? Either way, curious as to how doable it is? Will the Sox ever really ask this of him? Are there other examples of guys who made this adjustment successfully? One prominent example of a player adding power to his repertoire in the major leagues is Kevin Youkilis, who never hit more than 8 homers in any minor league season but who had seven straight double-digit home run seasons in the majors (including 29 in 2008 and 27 in 2009). As Alex Speier documents, Youkilis added loft to his swing, changed where he held his hands, and improved his strength and explosiveness, all of which contributed to his power explosion that few saw coming (compare this 2003 analysis, for instance). Some scouts have said suggested that Cecchini would add power to his profile, including in this Alex Speier article from July 2013 and this BA scouting report from his stint in the AFL last fall. The path to doing so is certainly plausible-- he makes slight alterations to his swing path and adds loft, gets stronger, and starts loading up more on pitches he can drive (aided by the fact that his plus plate discipline gets him into hitter's counts where he can sit fastball middle-in). My take is that while it is possible that Cecchini successfully makes Youkilis-type adjustments and adds power in the majors, it's not particularly likely that he does. Cecchini's complete inability to pull the ball this year is pretty alarming, and I tend to think that the issues with his mechanics are more than just a "minor adjustment." He's always had a line drive stroke, and part of the reason his pitch recognition is so good is that his low-load, upper-body-driven swing lets him stay back on the ball, effectively trading power for contact/discipline. He's also been on record in interviews suggesting that he's not concerned about his lack of power and is instead focused on hitting line drives, so I'm not sure it's something he thinks he has to "fix." Remember, even if he could overhaul his swing and start selling out for power, it wouldn't necessarily make him a better player, as doing so would probably have negative consequences for his hit tool, which has been his strength so far (though his strikeout rate has been rising as he's climbed the ladder).
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Post by jdb on Jun 9, 2014 11:37:55 GMT -5
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 9, 2014 11:54:02 GMT -5
Cecchini would be terrible at 3B. He should be moved to 1B or LF soon.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 9, 2014 12:23:33 GMT -5
Cecchini would be terrible at 3B. He should be moved to 1B or LF soon. I don't see the rush. 1B should be a relatively easy position for him to pick up and we don't need depth there at the moment, with Napoli, Nava, and eventually Middlebrooks and Carp. Getting him reps in left would be a better idea, but I'd like for him to still be playing primarily at third. Solid OBP or no, I'm not willing to fully move a guy with a .320 slugging % to 1B or LF just because his defense is currently questionable (it's not horrendous).
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Post by godot on Jun 9, 2014 14:30:17 GMT -5
Cecchini has had success with his approach, but not now, very mediocre. Wonder if this will make him change or whether he can. What the OBP worshipers do not or do not want to recognize is that if a kid can not make contact or good contact, major league pitchers will go after them, and their walks will go down. Bradley is a good example. Sanchez threw it right into him, daring him to make contact. Cecchini is also striking out alot at AAA and showing little, if any, drive or power. Do you believe he is going to be an OBP machine at the major league level? Right now, you can write him off.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 9, 2014 14:45:05 GMT -5
Right now, you can write him off. I believe you mean "If he doesn't change his approach, you can write him off." As opposed to "he's toast, forget about him," which is the literal meaning of what you said. However, I'm not entirely sure that what you meant is true. We don't know that he's executing his approach as well as he has in the past. Players do have off stretches. I'm willing to give him more time, probably through the end of this season, to see if he starts getting better results, before I ask him to alter his swing path to get more loft.
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2014 14:49:31 GMT -5
Cecchini has had success with his approach, but not now, very mediocre. Wonder if this will make him change or whether he can. What the OBP worshipers do not or do not want to recognize is that if a kid can not make contact or good contact, major league pitchers will go after them, and their walks will go down. Bradley is a good example. Sanchez threw it right into him, daring him to make contact. Cecchini is also striking out alot at AAA and showing little, if any, drive or power. Do you believe he is going to be an OBP machine at the major league level? Right now, you can write him off. Jackie Bradley's walk rate in the majors (9.1%) is not all that much lower than his walk rate was in Pawtucket last year (11%). Strikeouts are certainly a worry with Cecchini, but the issue is not really that he'll stop walking if he strikes out a ton. The issue is that if he strikes out a ton, he'll hit for a crappy average, and so even if he continues to walk at well above-average rates, he might end up with an average or below-average OBP. In general, I think this phenomenon is overhyped. There's at least some evidence that high walk, low power players continue to walk at high rates in the majors (there's additional analysis in the comments of that post, btw). While it's true that some hitters get fed more strikes than others, the upper limit on that is still pretty low, low enough that even punch-and-judy hitters will still take a fair number of walks if they stay disciplined. The highest zone% of any qualified hitter last year was Marco Scutaro at 53.1%. That's still not a lot of strikes, because it's pretty difficult for pitchers as a group to throw the ball over the plate with any real consistency.
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Post by godot on Jun 9, 2014 15:22:27 GMT -5
Good points Jmei, but wait awhile before you judge Bradley's walk rate and use him as a model for Cecchini. Yeah, Jr has a good eye, but pitchers are less and less willing to nibble with him. In his last 35 ABs, he walked 3 times, while striking out 13. His walks will come by accident and will gradually be few and far between unless he can make contact. he has what-- over 300 major league abats and seems to be getting worse. Should we give up on him. Maybe not, I was told that when Michael Bourne first came up he had a similar track record. There is hope, but sometimes we confuse hope with waiting for time to pass. Then again Waiting for Godot is my favorite peice of literature, just brillant and so true to human experience.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 9, 2014 15:25:27 GMT -5
In his last 35 ABs, he walked 3 times, while striking out 13. An 7.8% walk rate over 38 plate appearances isn't really a trend for someone walking about 9% overall. The 13 strikeouts is the problem, his walk rate his fine.
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2014 15:27:18 GMT -5
I generally don't buy much of the "pitchers are adapting to him!" explanations, either. It's usually just reading too much into a small sample size cold streak. 35 plate appearances is nothing. Hell, 300 plate appearances is nothing.
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Post by godot on Jun 9, 2014 16:32:33 GMT -5
Uhm, did you watch Sanchez. Hey, grasshopper I am going to throw the ball right down the pipe, try and hit it. Yup, he has a good eye. Pitchers will miss once in a while and he walks, whoopee. He can also chew gum while playing. Have you ever heard of falsification. Hey it is only 300 abats. What five year plan comrade, next five year plan. Jimmy Fallon is looking for another writer. Apply. (p.s. still would not give up on him. maybe you but not him )
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Post by tonyc on Jun 9, 2014 17:21:26 GMT -5
Jakovos,
There was another example of a redsox swing reform igniting far greater power than Kevin Youkilis- that was batting coach Mike Easler reworking a downward line drive swing of a player who had just 4 homers in his first 1/2 season, then 13 the following year- into a loft swing- resulting in 5 consecutive years of 30 homers and two of 40+ for Mo Vaugn! For those of you who were sox fans back then, you may recall that Phil Plantier was the greater prospect coming up, but between this grand reform and Plantier's injury issues they had a major reversal.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 10, 2014 9:06:49 GMT -5
Should we give up on him. Maybe not, I was told that when Michael Bourne first came up he had a similar track record. I'm not sure what you mean by this. JBJ's minor league track record is substantially better than Bourn's was. Bourn did have a very poor year at the plate in his first full major league season, .588 OPS in over 500 plate appearances at age 25. JBJ is 24 and has struggled (.580 OPS) in 211 plate appearances. Sometimes players struggle for a significant part or an entire major league season -- young players especially. Gotta be patient.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 10, 2014 12:28:49 GMT -5
Ian Cundall ? Ian Cundall 2m Hard line drive HR for Garin Cecchini on a 1-2, 92 mph FB. Pulled hands in and cleared hips early to drive inside FB out to RF.
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Post by jdb on Jun 22, 2014 9:09:54 GMT -5
Per the staff twitter feed Cecchini is starting in LF.
Jeff Levering tweet
Garin Cecchini starting in left field for the PawSox this afternoon. 10:00am - 22 Jun 14
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 22, 2014 13:00:32 GMT -5
So this is either: 1) trying him out at LF 2) getting him more abs during the Middlebrooks rehab
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2014 14:02:54 GMT -5
So this is either: 1) trying him out at LF 2) getting him more abs during the Middlebrooks rehab Former. They could just as easily DH him. They're smart enough to know that putting him at another position, particularly one in which they're having issues getting production in the major league level, and particularly given that the player being moved has had defensive questions at his primary position, is going to catch the eye of anyone paying attention. They wouldn't put Cecchini in that situation just to get him AB's. Of course, the bigger issue is the .243/.316/.307 line since May 1...
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