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5/19-5/21 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 12:26:09 GMT -5
Some of this is well struck balls going into gloves, but some is guys pressing and trying to pull or do too much and as a result topping the ball or popping up instead of going with the pitch and looking to drive it up the middle. Farrell mentioned recently, as have some of the players, that batters have been pressing or trying to do too much with RISP. This was on display at times last night (although, again, some rockets went right into gloves and some of the professional ballplayers actually made some very nice plays, because, uh, they're pros). It wasn't like Texas' pitcher had filthy stuff. They should've destroyed him second and third time through. This has a whiff of post-hoc rationalization to me. If they're not having good results, it's easy to look back and say "oh, they're pressing", even if this is not in fact true. This applies even to player/coach post-game quotes, because those guys have to attribute their struggles to something, and that's the easiest one in the book. For instance, with respect to the claim that they're trying to pull the ball too much with RISP and hitting lots of pop-ups, the empirical evidence actually suggests the opposite. Fangraphs doesn't have granular situational plate discipline splits, but they do have batted ball splits. Compare their batted ball splits overall with their splits with RISP. With RISP, they're pulling the ball less often and hitting fewer IFFBs than they do overall-- exactly the opposite of your above narrative. Instead, the big differences are that they're hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives and more contact categorized as "Soft" and less contact categorized as "Medium". Considering the volatility of those stats, I'm more inclined to believe a big chunk of this is SSS noise, especially because even if you take it as face value, the 3% difference in line drive rate doesn't explain the BABIP disparity (.212 with RISP, .258 overall). This is especially true because, with RISP, they make the same amount of contact categorized as "Hard" and actually run a higher HR/FB and ISO, which suggests that it's not really the case their contact is much weaker across the board. I'm not so inclined to discount offhand what players say about performance unless I have some clear evidence to the contrary, so if multiple guys and the manager say they're pressing I'll take their word for it that at the very least this is contributing factor in their performance. Also with regard to pulling, pop-ups and topping the ball, I don't recall saying "a lot" with regard to pop-ups. It's one of the noted results. Topping the ball does lead to ground balls (over line drives or pop-ups) and "trying" to pull doesn't mean they'll be successful, esp when you see some guys trying to pull pitchers on the outer third (or further) of the plate. Do that and you will top the ball, often off the end of the bat, and more often than not have a grounder to the 2nd base area for righties or the SS for lefties. Of course there are other factors, including pitch type and location, that induce more ground balls, too.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 12:35:20 GMT -5
Als, does anyone else think it might be time to DL Hanley and let that shoulder heal a bit. I mean if a team like Texas is walking Ortiz to get to Hanley, this is not a great sign of what the oppo scouting is saying about Ramirez.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2015 12:40:09 GMT -5
Ortiz used to get intentionally walked with Manny on deck. Other teams using a stupid strategy is probably the worst reason in the world to send Hanley to the DL.
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Post by 2pacac on May 21, 2015 12:57:48 GMT -5
Als, does anyone else think it might be time to DL Hanley and let that shoulder heal a bit. I mean if a team like Texas is walking Ortiz to get to Hanley, this is not a great sign of what the oppo scouting is saying about Ramirez. Walking Ortiz in that situation had almost no downside. You avoid the lefty-righty matchup and create a force play. Plus, the shift against Ortiz would've been somewhat affected having Mookie at 2nd. The only possible downside was putting the winning run on first. I certainly do not see it as a respect level decision against Hanley.
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Post by mgoetze on May 21, 2015 13:03:41 GMT -5
The pitching seems to be finally beginning to click. Eh... tell me one thing they're doing better than they were earlier (except for Wade Miley).
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Post by dirtywater on May 21, 2015 13:10:37 GMT -5
The pitching seems to be finally beginning to click. Eh... tell me one thing they're doing better than they were earlier (except for Wade Miley). Porcello and Buchholz have smoothed out a bit and shown some more consistency.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 13:23:56 GMT -5
Ortiz used to get intentionally walked with Manny on deck. Other teams using a stupid strategy is probably the worst reason in the world to send Hanley to the DL. Ugh - you are absolutely right. With Washington gone and Daniels in charge I thought they had gone to more scout/stats based management model but I did not account at all for the "hunch/old school management" possibility.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2015 13:27:33 GMT -5
Eh... tell me one thing they're doing better than they were earlier (except for Wade Miley). Porcello and Buchholz have smoothed out a bit and shown some more consistency. Joe Kelly has stopped trying to throw his fastball through the catcher in order to spot it better.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2015 14:12:22 GMT -5
Sean McAdam ?@sean_McAdam 7m7 minutes ago View translation SOX v TEX: Betts CF; Pedroia 2B; Ortiz DH; Ramirez LF; Napoli 1B; Victorino RF; Holt 3B; Bogaerts SS; Leon C; Buchholz P
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2015 14:16:18 GMT -5
The pitching seems to be finally beginning to click. Eh... tell me one thing they're doing better than they were earlier (except for Wade Miley). Earned runs. Your favorite stat.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2015 14:21:42 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right.
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 148
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Post by KB24 on May 21, 2015 14:30:53 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right. Maybe he's built his trade value up enough for a team to take a shot on him. Wishful thinking....#freeRusney
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2015 14:36:45 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right. Maybe he's built his trade value up enough for a team to take a shot on him. Wishful thinking....#freeRusney With his recent hot streak, Victorino has been above average offensively on the year. Injuries and consistency are the obvious knocks on him.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2015 14:39:06 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 27s27 seconds ago Victorino says nothing wrong. "Just not playing tonight" #RedSox
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Post by mattpicard on May 21, 2015 14:40:52 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right. 2014 MLB wRC+ vs. LHP: JBJ: 80 Nava: 7
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2015 14:45:56 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 27s27 seconds ago Victorino says nothing wrong. "Just not playing tonight" #RedSox Unless there was an error in the original lineup card submission this seems fishy.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2015 14:56:53 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right. 2014 MLB wRC+ vs. LHP: JBJ: 80 Nava: 7 Even if you ignore his more recent helplessness against LHP, Nava's Career against LHP is 59 wRC+. He's had 5 PA against LHP this year for a reason. Even if you can't clearly see that Bradley has improved from last year, and declare he is as bad a hitter as Nava who has the 8th lowest wRC+ against LHP since 2012 (250 PA min), Bradley is by far the superior defender and should get the start.
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Post by mattpicard on May 21, 2015 15:02:43 GMT -5
2014 MLB wRC+ vs. LHP: JBJ: 80 Nava: 7 Even if you ignore his more recent helplessness against LHP, Nava's Career against LHP is 59 wRC+. He's had 5 PA against LHP this year for a reason. Even if you can't clearly see that Bradley has improved from last year, and declare he is as bad a hitter as Nava who has the 8th lowest wRC+ against LHP since 2012 (250 PA min), Bradley is by far the superior defender and should get the start. Yeah, I don't think you'll find anyone outside of JF make the case that Nava deserves this start in any way over JBJ. Against a LHP, you can't use the "get Nava going with consistent at bats" rationale.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 21, 2015 15:07:19 GMT -5
Even if you ignore his more recent helplessness against LHP, Nava's Career against LHP is 59 wRC+. He's had 5 PA against LHP this year for a reason. Even if you can't clearly see that Bradley has improved from last year, and declare he is as bad a hitter as Nava who has the 8th lowest wRC+ against LHP since 2012 (250 PA min), Bradley is by far the superior defender and should get the start. Yeah, I don't think you'll find anyone outside of JF make the case that Nava deserves this start in any way over JBJ. Against a LHP, you can't use the "get Nava going with consistent at bats" rationale. That was the strategy last year when Gomes got the starts over Nava against RHP. Ironic that Nava is on the other side of it. My vocabulary isn't great. Ironic means sad right?
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 15:25:08 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5s5 seconds ago Shane Victorino just got scratched. No reason given. Nava starts in right. 2014 MLB wRC+ vs. LHP: JBJ: 80 Nava: 7 Um, yeah. Even if it was a Farrell using an "all things being equal" rationalization here (which they are not), Superior D should cancel even that lame argument.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 15:28:22 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think you'll find anyone outside of JF make the case that Nava deserves this start in any way over JBJ. Against a LHP, you can't use the "get Nava going with consistent at bats" rationale. That was the strategy last year when Gomes got the starts over Nava against RHP. Ironic that Nava is on the other side of it. My vocabulary isn't great. Ironic means sad right? It works in this instance but it's usually something the opposite of what it was so many times before and thus, in context, now seems completely incongruent or counter intuitive. Given the resources at Farrell's disposal, unless JBJ is sick or injured, the word "pathetic" is also applicable.
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Post by mattpicard on May 21, 2015 15:38:23 GMT -5
Sean McAdam ?@sean_McAdam 21s21 seconds ago Farrell on Victorono: "General overall soreness, centralized somewhat in left calf." [lol]
Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 55s56 seconds ago Farrell on RISP: 'I don't know if we're at the point of fumigation of the clubhouse or an exorcism but hopefully it starts falling our way.'
Tim Britton ?@timbritton 1m1 minute ago Farrell said scratching Victorino is precautionary and that the soreness is unrelated to his previous back and hamstrings issues.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 21, 2015 16:38:46 GMT -5
They keep doing nothing to the lineup. How can Farrell be happy with where they are? That was one of the most frustrating games last night. They keep screwing around they are not gonna get these games back.
I mean no running,what happened? Just keep waiting Farrell. Sit in the dugout drinking bigelow tea. I understand its the players but if its not happening its up to the manager to make an adjustment here and there. He does nothing. Beginning to think Farrell is very overrated at least he is happy with being two games under.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2015 17:07:37 GMT -5
They keep doing nothing to the lineup. How can Farrell be happy with where they are? That was one of the most frustrating games last night. They keep screwing around they are not gonna get these games back. I mean no running,what happened? Just keep waiting Farrell. Sit in the dugout drinking bigelow tea. I understand its the players but if its not happening its up to the manager to make an adjustment here and there. He does nothing. Beginning to think Farrell is very overrated at least he is happy with being two games under. I don't know how you assert he's overrated. This is exactly the guy I saw manage in Toronto.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 21, 2015 17:52:49 GMT -5
Some of this is well struck balls going into gloves, but some is guys pressing and trying to pull or do too much and as a result topping the ball or popping up instead of going with the pitch and looking to drive it up the middle. Farrell mentioned recently, as have some of the players, that batters have been pressing or trying to do too much with RISP. This was on display at times last night (although, again, some rockets went right into gloves and some of the professional ballplayers actually made some very nice plays, because, uh, they're pros). It wasn't like Texas' pitcher had filthy stuff. They should've destroyed him second and third time through. This has a whiff of post-hoc rationalization to me. If they're not having good results, it's easy to look back and say "oh, they're pressing", even if this is not in fact true. This applies even to player/coach post-game quotes, because those guys have to attribute their struggles to something, and that's the easiest one in the book. For instance, with respect to the claim that they're trying to pull the ball too much with RISP and hitting lots of pop-ups, the empirical evidence actually suggests the opposite. Fangraphs doesn't have granular situational plate discipline splits, but they do have batted ball splits. Compare their batted ball splits overall with their splits with RISP. With RISP, they're pulling the ball less often and hitting fewer IFFBs than they do overall-- exactly the opposite of your above narrative. Instead, the big differences are that they're hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives and more contact categorized as "Soft" and less contact categorized as "Medium". Considering the volatility of those stats, I'm more inclined to believe a big chunk of this is SSS noise, especially because even if you take it as face value, the 3% difference in line drive rate doesn't explain the BABIP disparity (.212 with RISP, .258 overall). This is especially true because, with RISP, they make the same amount of contact categorized as "Hard" and actually run a higher HR/FB and ISO, which suggests that it's not really the case their contact is much weaker across the board. I've gotta say Jmei that you are simply amazing on a regular basis and sometimes clearly genius. Whatever you do for a career, you could work for any of the top orgs in baseball with your analytical ability.
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