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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 4, 2015 14:21:35 GMT -5
I wanted Meadows too. Doesn't mean all of the sudden I know more about the prospects in the draft than actual teams who spent most of their time analyzing the draft.
The notion that ball wasn't a "high upside" pick is wrong. Many reports had him up to 96 in cold weather. He was also connected as high as the 4th pick with the Twins and the Royals/Jays who picked right behind the Red Sox. It wasn't a reach or out of place to pick him there. Just because the media spent most of the time connecting them to Frazier and Meadows so everyone just focused on those guys doesn't mean that Ball was very much within the range the Red Sox pick.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 4, 2015 15:12:18 GMT -5
It's not like they didn't scout him heavily or anything: I still like the philosophy behind picking him that high and I would encourage it again. It was a classic Good process - Bad result case.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 4, 2015 15:30:43 GMT -5
I felt the same way as many others in here about Trey Ball. I wanted Meadows, but I also know I wanted him because I was reading draft boards and was liking what I saw on paper, I had zero concept or first hand knowledge (nor the ability to scout them if I had) on any of these top draft prospects. Still it was easy to justify the Ball pick, the Sox could draft a player who fits the same exact bill as Trey Ball this year and he could the next Clayton Kershaw for all we know. When you go to the black jack table and you lose a hand when you're playing perfect strategy, you don't change your strategy because it didn't work out one time....that's what suckers do.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 4, 2015 17:27:11 GMT -5
It's not like they didn't scout him heavily or anything: I still like the philosophy behind picking him that high and I would encourage it again. It was a classic Good process - Bad result case. What bad result? There are no results yet are there?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 4, 2015 18:31:25 GMT -5
It's not like they didn't scout him heavily or anything: I still like the philosophy behind picking him that high and I would encourage it again. It was a classic Good process - Bad result case. What bad result? There are no results yet are there? I consider Ball as a bad selection.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 4, 2015 18:34:46 GMT -5
I get that. Why? What "result" is so bad right now?
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 4, 2015 18:36:35 GMT -5
I'm not sure that you want to represent that point of view on behalf of a board the sole purpose of which is to ranking players based on "non results"
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 4, 2015 18:48:10 GMT -5
I respectufuly disagree: "Results" don't mean ERA and WHIP But what I mean by results is: High Ks or small number of BBs, scouting reports about plus pitch etc It's the number 7 pick after all! He ansolutly showed nothing since entering the system! They've done their work and they wanted to go for the ceiling and that's what I liked about the process but the "results" are clearly bad :/
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 4, 2015 18:54:53 GMT -5
I'm not talking about ERA WHIP or anything. You said "good process - bad result" which indicates some end point of the process. Does Ball look like top prospect right now - no. But he has made progress from last year and still has a lot of development in front of him. But you've already given up on his development from your comments. There are game results and data to analyze. And scouting reports. But there has been no "result" yet with respect to the 7th pick in the 2013 MLB draft. He may may flame out, he may be an all-star, or may end up somewhere in between. Right now, it appears somewhere in between and maybe on the low end of in between. But he was a raw HS'er and will need more development. But we get too impatient sometimes with these young kids. It ain't all going to be smooth development.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Jun 4, 2015 19:13:50 GMT -5
I'm not talking about ERA WHIP or anything. You said "good process - bad result" which indicates some end point of the process. Does Ball look like top prospect right now - no. But he has made progress from last year and still has a lot of development in front of him. But you've already given up on his development from your comments. There are game results and data to analyze. And scouting reports. But there has been no "result" yet with respect to the 7th pick in the 2013 MLB draft. He may may flame out, he may be an all-star, or may end up somewhere in between. Right now, it appears somewhere in between and maybe on the low end of in between. But he was a raw HS'er and will need more development. But we get too impatient sometimes with these young kids. It ain't all going to be smooth development. I would be much much more patient if he was having ,say, Cody Kukuk, 71/87 BB/K in 78.1 IPs, no matter if he's been hit around or how inflated his ERA could be, it means for me that the stuff to miss bats is there and all he needs is to harness it and that's what the system is for and development all about. I'm not seeing that with Ball...I hope he proves me wrong though.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 4, 2015 19:26:51 GMT -5
Another HS pitcher drafter ahead of Ball with a better pedigree - Kohl Stewart, rhp, Twins Aside from a disabled-list stint at the end of April, Stewart has fared well enough at high Class A Fort Myers this season to avoid derision. With a strikeout rate of 4.4 batters per nine innings, though, he struggles to pitch out of jams, which is what happened this week when the 2013 first-rounder struck out one and walked none but still allowed six runs on 10 hits in four innings. www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-prequel-june-4-helium-watch-hot/ (from the not so hot section). Prospects struggle.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 4, 2015 22:46:43 GMT -5
Another HS pitcher drafter ahead of Ball with a better pedigree - Kohl Stewart, rhp, Twins Aside from a disabled-list stint at the end of April, Stewart has fared well enough at high Class A Fort Myers this season to avoid derision. With a strikeout rate of 4.4 batters per nine innings, though, he struggles to pitch out of jams, which is what happened this week when the 2013 first-rounder struck out one and walked none but still allowed six runs on 10 hits in four innings. www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-prequel-june-4-helium-watch-hot/ (from the not so hot section). Prospects struggle. It's tough because when the team stinks as bad as they do, the silver lining, the thing to look forward to, is getting that high draft pick and converting it into somebody who can be a core player on an ascending and competitive ballclub. 1992 was a drag, but getting Trot Nixon with that #7 pick in 1993 was wonderful. It took him awhile, but he blossomed into a quality player who was a contributor on those great Sox teams from 2003 and 2004. It's deflating to hear that Trey Ball projects to nothing more than a backend starter. Normally I would say that it getting Ball (instead of Meadows), who seems to be a major project, makes 2012 seem like the Sox got absolutely nothing out of it, but when you figure that the events of 2012 made the 2013 team what they were, that's better than hitting a homerun with any draft pick. However, the events of 2014 are not leading to a turnaround in 2015, so here's hoping the Sox do hit a HR with this #7 draft pick (Heck I'd happy settle for a single or a double - just get a good player and kick butt in next year's draft)
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Trey Ball
Jun 4, 2015 23:44:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2015 23:44:08 GMT -5
I don't mean to insult anyone, I just think that's a more accurate term than "fans" or "defenders." I would never call a guy like him a bust this soon, but the reality is you have to squint pretty hard to see anything to get excited about. That's all I'm sayin. And as I type I see some BP guy on twitter who watched him tonight tabbed him as a potential 4/5 starter. That wouldn't be the end of the world to me, lest anyone think I have unrealistic expectations. I'm not sure he has any "fans" or "defenders," any more than there are people who think he's a bust. What he has is agnostics, on the one side, and doubters on the other. It's folks who don't see any significant positive or negative evidence, but will readily admit that the lack of the former is disappointing, versus those who see negative evidence. There's no disagreement that guys like him who have performed better than he has, have gone on to have more MLB success. The disagreement is over to what degree his lack of success so far has minimized his chances for success. Agnostics like myself see the curve plotting early success versus eventual success as pretty flat except as you get near the prodigy end (and I think the data backs that up). He's in the wide middle where it's just too early to draw conclusions. It's true that if you spell TREY BALL in lower case letters, it comes out "Ty Buttrey." We gave him #40 pick = supplemental first round money. He had an on-the-surface good season with Lowell in 2013, but with totally underwhelming K and W numbers (13.8% versus 8.3%, very close to what Ball is doing this year). Last year he was hammered, and he was looking like a bust. This year he looks like the real deal. Truly outstandingly well-put. The agnostics vs. doubters distinction is perfect. I remain an agnostic. If he hits 23 in high A ball, I'll probably fall in with the latter.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 8, 2015 12:15:36 GMT -5
Ball currently has the worst FIP among qualified pitchers in the Carolina League. Half a run higher than the 3rd worst guy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2015 12:27:53 GMT -5
Last week's Raw Projection (BP's new minor league scouting podcast) has a section talking a lot about Ball: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26516Talks about projecting a project like him and comparing him with a college arm who is better right now but is a reliever down the road. As he did in his writeups for the site, Wittman projects him as a back-end starter (and before you say "aw that sucks" I would ask if you'd be ok with him turning into Brian Johnson at this point, because that's what he's saying). There's also a bit in there gushing about Margot.
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okin15
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Post by okin15 on Jun 8, 2015 15:04:35 GMT -5
Last week's Raw Projection (BP's new minor league scouting podcast) has a section talking a lot about Ball: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26516Talks about projecting a project like him and comparing him with a college arm who is better right now but is a reliever down the road. As he did in his writeups for the site, Wittman projects him as a back-end starter (and before you say "aw that sucks" I would ask if you'd be ok with him turning into Brian Johnson at this point, because that's what he's saying). There's also a bit in there gushing about Margot. No, I'd not be OK with that, but I guess I'm OK with that being a projection, with some significant upside, as well as some (probably significant) downside.
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Post by quintanariffic on Jun 8, 2015 20:19:36 GMT -5
Last week's Raw Projection (BP's new minor league scouting podcast) has a section talking a lot about Ball: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26516Talks about projecting a project like him and comparing him with a college arm who is better right now but is a reliever down the road. As he did in his writeups for the site, Wittman projects him as a back-end starter (and before you say "aw that sucks" I would ask if you'd be ok with him turning into Brian Johnson at this point, because that's what he's saying). So, yeaaahh, about that. I'm as big an advocate for the "patience" approach with Ball as there is, but even setting aside TINSTAAP and the inherent unpredictability of the draft, that would be a poor result for the #7 pick. Johnson was selected 24 picks later as an advanced pitcher from the SEC. You should be happy to get a back-end starter from that spot. When you go with a raw HS arm at #7, you better believe that a back-end starter ceiling is not what you're aiming for.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 8, 2015 20:45:52 GMT -5
Really people?
If Trey Ball becomes a successful major leaguer, whether it is #2 starter, or a middle reliever, it was a good pick.
You guys realize how few players become successful major leaguers right?
Just because it likely won't turn out to be an all-time great pick doesn't mean it can't be a good pick.
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Post by jmei on Jun 8, 2015 22:44:48 GMT -5
When you go with a raw HS arm at #7, you better believe that a back-end starter ceiling is not what you're aiming for. The back-round starter is his median projection, not his ceiling. That said, if you gave me odds right now on whether Ball accumulates 6 WAR over his first six major league seasons (roughly the average outcome for a #7 pick), I'd take the under. I know it's still early, but it's been two years now and Ball turns 21 this month, and I just don't see a lot there. Maybe that changes, and I'm obviously rooting for him to succeed, but it shouldn't be outlandish to suggest that he's been disappointing so far.
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Post by quintanariffic on Jun 9, 2015 1:44:53 GMT -5
When you go with a raw HS arm at #7, you better believe that a back-end starter ceiling is not what you're aiming for. The back-round starter is his median projection, not his ceiling. That said, if you gave me odds right now on whether Ball accumulates 6 WAR over his first six major league seasons (roughly the average outcome for a #7 pick), I'd take the under. I know it's still early, but it's been two years now and Ball turns 21 this month, and I just don't see a lot there. Maybe that changes, and I'm obviously rooting for him to succeed, but it shouldn't be outlandish to suggest that he's been disappointing so far. My mistake re: his projection. Regardless, I think we are on the same page as to our views on Ball.
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 9, 2015 9:16:55 GMT -5
When you go with a raw HS arm at #7, you better believe that a back-end starter ceiling is not what you're aiming for. The back-round starter is his median projection, not his ceiling. That said, if you gave me odds right now on whether Ball accumulates 6 WAR over his first six major league seasons (roughly the average outcome for a #7 pick), I'd take the under. I know it's still early, but it's been two years now and Ball turns 21 this month, and I just don't see a lot there. Maybe that changes, and I'm obviously rooting for him to succeed, but it shouldn't be outlandish to suggest that he's been disappointing so far. I haven't listened to the podcast, but looking at the scouting report, he projects a back end starter *with* all 3 pitches ticking up a full grade, and his command moving up on all of them. I read that report as "right now he has 1 average pitch, one below average, and one bad pitch, and he doesn't command any of them very well. If the pitches all get much better and he starts commanding them, he'll be a #4/5 starter". Not to mention the study that Kiley has mentioned was done at a team he worked for that shows that scouts have 0 ability to predict velocity changes in the future, which is a huge part of Wittmann's optimism. I feel like Ball gets a bit of a pass because of where he was drafted - if he was a nobody drafted in the 20th round and he looked like he does now, would people really be throwing 50 FVs on him? (to clarify before my post gets misread, bad pick =/= bust, he could still be a good major leaguer, that was a bad spot to be picking in that draft, etc)
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 9, 2015 10:38:32 GMT -5
The back-round starter is his median projection, not his ceiling. That said, if you gave me odds right now on whether Ball accumulates 6 WAR over his first six major league seasons (roughly the average outcome for a #7 pick), I'd take the under. I know it's still early, but it's been two years now and Ball turns 21 this month, and I just don't see a lot there. Maybe that changes, and I'm obviously rooting for him to succeed, but it shouldn't be outlandish to suggest that he's been disappointing so far. I haven't listened to the podcast, but looking at the scouting report, he projects a back end starter *with* all 3 pitches ticking up a full grade, and his command moving up on all of them. I read that report as " right now he has 1 average pitch, one below average, and one bad pitch, and he doesn't command any of them very well. If the pitches all get much better and he starts commanding them, he'll be a #4/5 starter". Not to mention the study that Kiley has mentioned was done at a team he worked for that shows that scouts have 0 ability to predict velocity changes in the future, which is a huge part of Wittmann's optimism. I feel like Ball gets a bit of a pass because of where he was drafted - if he was a nobody drafted in the 20th round and he looked like he does now, would people really be throwing 50 FVs on him? (to clarify before my post gets misread, bad pick =/= bust, he could still be a good major leaguer, that was a bad spot to be picking in that draft, etc) That is describing pretty much every high school pitcher. No one in high school has anything close to what their future pitches are going to be.
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2015 10:47:28 GMT -5
Right, but it's been two years now, and we've seen very limited improvement.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2015 10:52:27 GMT -5
we've seen very limited improvement. I really disagree with this. His secondaries and his willingness to use them have shown a lot of improvement, as have his mechanics.
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Trey Ball
Jun 9, 2015 11:07:17 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Jun 9, 2015 11:07:17 GMT -5
It's true that if you spell TREY BALL in lower case letters, it comes out "Ty Buttrey." We gave him #40 pick = supplemental first round money. He had an on-the-surface good season with Lowell in 2013, but with totally underwhelming K and W numbers (13.8% versus 8.3%, very close to what Ball is doing this year). Last year he was hammered, and he was looking like a bust. This year he looks like the real deal. Excuse me, did I miss that Buttrey is the real deal? 22 inning of repeated low A ball? or the 30 inning of high A ball at a decent 7.2 K/9 rate? And part of the Ball dislike is that the obvious pick was Austin Meadows. Check out pages 7 to 12 forum.soxprospects.com/thread/845/2013-mlb-draft-discussion-thread?page=7and pages 5-7 here sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/76658-2013-mlb-draft/page-6I love the fact that right before that pick I described drafting Ball as "doing something crazy"
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