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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 3, 2015 14:51:51 GMT -5
Sorry for my ignorance, but can someone explain (or point me to a prior post) about whether the Red Sox will be able to send Allen Craig to the minors again next year (and off the 40 man roster) and therefore not have his salary count against the cap? If I am not mistaken, he is getting $9mm next year and if the Red Sox have any chance to stay under the cap and get and pay for the pitching help they need, it would certainly help to not have his salary count against the cap. If they can't keep his salary off their numbers for the cap, might they keep him on the team as the 4th outfielder? At least that way they would't have to go out and get someone else and pay his salary too - could use the money they would have spent for that on other needs. But he has been so bad that seems unlikely. If he clears waivers then he can be outrighted to the minors and will not count against the luxury tax. He needs 5 years of service time to refuse to an outright assignment but he is currently only at 4 years and 77 days as of this post. So no - it is not expected that his salary will count against the luxury tax and therefore he would be a poor choice to be the 5th OF vs LHP (which is something i believe the Red Sox could use)
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 3, 2015 16:09:42 GMT -5
He would be an incredibly bad choice as a 5th OF! He is sunk cost on his way to visit the Titanic.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 3, 2015 16:15:18 GMT -5
I don't have time to read through 69 pages of this thread but what about Leake? He cost no pick and is still young with no injury risk that I'm aware of plus he has put up consistently solid numbers for a long time. Someone like him would seem to me to be exactly what we need given our budget and draft pick situation. It depends on the cost of course for any of the guys with this sort of profile.
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Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2015 16:52:37 GMT -5
I don't have time to read through 69 pages of this thread but what about Leake? He cost no pick and is still young with no injury risk that I'm aware of plus he has put up consistently solid numbers for a long time. Someone like him would seem to me to be exactly what we need given our budget and draft pick situation. It depends on the cost of course for any of the guys with this sort of profile. I've posted this before, but over the past three years, Leake is basically the same pitcher as Wade Miley.
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Post by michael on Oct 3, 2015 18:42:39 GMT -5
Sorry for my ignorance, but can someone explain (or point me to a prior post) about whether the Red Sox will be able to send Allen Craig to the minors again next year (and off the 40 man roster) and therefore not have his salary count against the cap? If I am not mistaken, he is getting $9mm next year and if the Red Sox have any chance to stay under the cap and get and pay for the pitching help they need, it would certainly help to not have his salary count against the cap. If they can't keep his salary off their numbers for the cap, might they keep him on the team as the 4th outfielder? At least that way they would't have to go out and get someone else and pay his salary too - could use the money they would have spent for that on other needs. But he has been so bad that seems unlikely. If he clears waivers then he can be outrighted to the minors and will not count against the luxury tax. He needs 5 years of service time to refuse to an outright assignment but he is currently only at 4 years and 77 days as of this post. So no - it is not expected that his salary will count against the luxury tax and therefore he would be a poor choice to be the 5th OF vs LHP (which is something i believe the Red Sox could use) This explanation coupled with whether or not a DFA; release would exempt any money due from the Lux Tax might argue that playing him in AAA is the wisest.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 3, 2015 19:19:01 GMT -5
My ideal would be to trade both Miley and Buchholz along with some prospects to get one ace starter and a couple of terrific RPs and then sign another ace FA. The rotation then would be ace, ace, Porcello, Rodriguez and one of Hill, Kelly or Owens. This is what I've been advocating too with one slight difference. I'd wait until during the season next year to try and trade for the second ace. Give Buchholz time to establish his health. And I'd consider using others parts in making the trade
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2015 20:53:22 GMT -5
If you sell Castillo you sell him as a CF, which is what the Sox originally projected him as. At that position he likely profiles at around average for the position over the last 3 years (ave for qualified CFs, according to Fangraphs is .258/.342/.441, with Mike Trout in there to skew everything up). In that capacity Castillo becomes much more palatable, esp for anyone who sees upside beyond this year's numbers. The one Castillo trade that really makes sense is to deal him to a rebuilding small-market team who has no CF and no good CF prospect in the high minors, but has a very good or great LFer (or RFer) with a year or two of control remaining. Does anything like that situation exist, even if you involved a third team? A question worth looking into.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 3, 2015 21:17:48 GMT -5
“@redsoxstats: Sherman: ”many executives believe the Red Sox will aggressively pursue David Price“ t.co/xeGbRGgaXfBut the industry expectation is Boston will get an ace, and many executives believe the Red Sox will aggressively pursue David Price — perhaps because Dombrowski traded for Price in Detroit. To do this, Boston’s ownership would have to alter its philosophy not to give lavish long-term deals that take pitchers deep into their 30s. “An ace is hard to find, but would look nice in our rotation,” Dombrowski said. “We can’t be presumptuous that we can get one.”
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Post by larrycook on Oct 3, 2015 22:10:23 GMT -5
“@redsoxstats: Sherman: ”many executives believe the Red Sox will aggressively pursue David Price“ t.co/xeGbRGgaXfBut the industry expectation is Boston will get an ace, and many executives believe the Red Sox will aggressively pursue David Price — perhaps because Dombrowski traded for Price in Detroit. To do this, Boston’s ownership would have to alter its philosophy not to give lavish long-term deals that take pitchers deep into their 30s. “An ace is hard to find, but would look nice in our rotation,” Dombrowski said. “We can’t be presumptuous that we can get one.” Would the sox offer him a seven year deal?
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Post by telson13 on Oct 3, 2015 22:13:53 GMT -5
I'd like to see the Sox go after Price. He's a reasonable bet to age fairly well, and if they play their cards right, with a little luck, they'll have three young cost-controlled pitchers in the rotation in 3 years (Rodriguez, Owens, Johnson, Espinoza, and Kopech being the candidates). That'll keep costs down, especially with a bunch of young talent breaking in now, and two years from now, in the field...right when the Ramirez and Sandoval contracts will be absorbable.
I agree with JRNichols that Buchholz shouldn't be traded until he's shown that he's healthy, since the return would otherwise be pretty discounted. But, there's the conundrum...if he's pitching well, will they really want to part with him?
A second quality arm to slot into the 2 or 3 spot would be great, but might hurt prospect-wise. I'd still love to see them trade from excess for an underacheiving or on-the-cusp arm, a la Taijuan Walker or Trevor Bauer. As much as I've advocated trading Miley, in that scenario they could deal Buchholz in ST and keep Miley, whose reliability would offset the young arm's unpredictability. It would basically put Rodriguez in the 2 spot, but if Price is the #1, I'm OK with that. Lester was barely league-average in 2013, and Lackey the de facto 2 when Buchholz went down, and that rotation did fine, with Doubront doing his best Miley impression.
I still contend that trading Swihart is a mistake. Switch hitter with burgeoning power and improving defensive skills, and good baserunning. Most evaluators seem to think he's a .290/.360 guy, maybe .450 SLG (12-18 HR, 30+ doubles). Even if Vazquez is healthy (big if) and capable (another big if, given the TJS history of catchers), Swihart is athletic with a good bat.
They need two top-flight relief arms. Start off with trying to deal for Matt Capps, and explore Kimbrel and Chapman. Surprised Pat Light isn't in the AFL. Hopefully, they keep Jerez around on the 40-man, or if not he doesn't get plucked.
Explore a Castillo trade...I think Eric's dead-on with the best-profile acquiring team. I wouldn't rush to trade him (that leaves a substantial hole, and would require a Heyward or Upton signing, preferably Heyward if it comes to that), but it's worth looking into. I'd look strictly for AA/high-A prospects back who can be flipped, or a high-leverage reliever. I do wonder if SD would be interested in Castillo+prospects for Kimbrel. Similar salaries and SD needs a CF so they can reconfigure their OF defensively and get Myers to a corner permanently. Hell, look into a Castillo+ for Myers...he's a buy-low candidate.
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Post by thursty on Oct 3, 2015 22:24:53 GMT -5
Since there are two question marks in the OF going in to next year, I'm wondering if Colby Rasmus wouldn't be a good signing? 115+ this year 104+ career Certainly could platoon with Castillo (who simply can't hit RHP) and real insurance against JBJ looking more like the 2014 version than this year's. Also shouldn't require many years or AAV (making $8m this year), and will be 30. Has a bad clubhouse rep (Tony LaRussa hated him, which is a point in his favor; Toronto was happy to see him go)
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Post by slam761 on Oct 3, 2015 22:55:31 GMT -5
A second quality arm to slot into the 2 or 3 spot would be great, but might hurt prospect-wise. I'd still love to see them trade from excess for an underacheiving or on-the-cusp arm, a la Taijuan Walker or Trevor Bauer. As much as I've advocated trading Miley, in that scenario they could deal Buchholz in ST and keep Miley, whose reliability would offset the young arm's unpredictability. It would basically put Rodriguez in the 2 spot, but if Price is the #1, I'm OK with that. Lester was barely league-average in 2013, and Lackey the de facto 2 when Buchholz went down, and that rotation did fine, with Doubront doing his best Miley impression. They need two top-flight relief arms. Start off with trying to deal for Matt Capps, and explore Kimbrel and Chapman. Surprised Pat Light isn't in the AFL. Hopefully, they keep Jerez around on the 40-man, or if not he doesn't get plucked. Matt Capps hasn't pitched since 2012, so I'm guessing you mean Carter Capps? And as for Trevor Bauer, I really wouldn't want anything to do with him unless he barely costs anything. Even he admits his stuff isn't very good.
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Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2015 22:57:25 GMT -5
Most evaluators seem to think he's a .290/.360 guy, maybe .450 SLG (12-18 HR, 30+ doubles). Even if Vazquez is healthy (big if) and capable (another big if, given the TJS history of catchers), Swihart is athletic with a good bat. This is nit-picky, but this is an aggressive projection for Swihart. For instance, Kiley McDaniel projects him for a 55 hit tool, which is a .270 batting average, while SoxProspects has him at .275-.285. Swihart has also never been a high walk rate guy, so the above-average .070 isolated discipline is also a bit aggressive (SP.com projects him for an average-to-above-average OBP, which would be in the .320-.340 range).
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Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2015 23:01:47 GMT -5
Since there are two question marks in the OF going in to next year, I'm wondering if Colby Rasmus wouldn't be a good signing? 115+ this year 104+ career Certainly could platoon with Castillo (who simply can't hit RHP) and real insurance against JBJ looking more like the 2014 version than this year's. Also shouldn't require many years or AAV (making $8m this year), and will be 30. Has a bad clubhouse rep (Tony LaRussa hated him, which is a point in his favor; Toronto was happy to see him go) After taking a pillow contract last year, I think Rasmus will be looking for maximum years/AAV this year. If he's going to cost, say, 4/$48m, that's no longer that appealing of an option. I think you look for the next pre-2015 Colby Rasmus rather than paying for the post-2015 version. Maybe Austin Jackson is willing to take one year at reasonable money?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2015 23:56:35 GMT -5
They need two top-flight relief arms. I was as big a champion of this idea as anyone, but it's no longer true. They need one, and in fact, there's barely room for two. Keep in mind that the value of a second added arm is the marginal difference been him and Tazawa in the 7th, Tazawa and whomever is next on the depth chart in the 6th, and so on. It's small. Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). Ditto for Kelly and Wright; given Buchholz's health and Hill's probable innings limit, they'll get a bunch of starts, too, and Kelly at least has potential to be as good in the pen as the guy who you want to take his innings. And with one or two of those three guys (depending on the health of Buchholz and the others) in the pen and capable of going 2 innings frequently, you can use Layne more as a LOOGY. So that's six spots spoken for. So the second guy, when everyone is healthy, would bump Ross to AAA. And Ross is an above-average MLB reliever who can throw multiple innings himself. And furthermore, Jean Machi, in his last 11 outings, has a 2.60 xFIP, 2.28 SIERA, 4.07 FIP (thanks to a 25.0 HR/FB%), and a 1.86 ERA, which is to say that given his track record he's pitched well enough to keep on the 40-man and take a look at in ST. And perhaps more importantly, Noe Ramirez has a 3.00 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 3.89 FIP (again courtesy of a 25.0 HR/FB%), and 3.38 ERA in September, and he'll be in AAA, and Matt Barnes came into today with a 3.62 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.00 ERA in September, and he'll be in Pawtucket, too. (These samples may or may not be all that meaningful, but they're certainly way better than sucking). When you add them and Aro to Light and Workman in AAA, there's a very solid chance that you'll get at least one guy who can really help the team at some point. Signing a FA reliever to bump Ross and Machi off the roster and further block all 5 PawSox candidates makes little sense, and trading for one makes even less sense. You'd be much better off taking the money or the talent and using it to get an even better frontline starting pitcher, elite reliever, or fourth OFer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2015 0:33:09 GMT -5
If you sell Castillo you sell him as a CF, which is what the Sox originally projected him as. At that position he likely profiles at around average for the position over the last 3 years (ave for qualified CFs, according to Fangraphs is .258/.342/.441, with Mike Trout in there to skew everything up). In that capacity Castillo becomes much more palatable, esp for anyone who sees upside beyond this year's numbers. The one Castillo trade that really makes sense is to deal him to a rebuilding small-market team who has no CF and no good CF prospect in the high minors, but has a very good or great LFer (or RFer) with a year or two of control remaining. Does anything like that situation exist, even if you involved a third team? A question worth looking into. The only 2017 FA good corner OF who plays for such a team is very interesting ... Josh Reddick. You would never trade five years of Castillo (roughly 12.5 WAR) for 3.5 WAR of Reddick even-up. But as part of a deal for Sonny Gray, it makes a good deal of sense. You get a likely 1 win upgrade next year, maybe get a draft pick afterwards, and Benintendi represents a likely upgrade to Castillo in 2017 anyway. No one has a list of 2018 FA (who may be better trade targets anyway), so I've got to check out the contract status of the good corners OFers myself. More later.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2015 2:53:16 GMT -5
Some further possible short-term OF possibilities. I haven't looked into the deep numbers of anyone here yet.
Franklin Gutierrez, FA. I will admit to being barely aware that, after missing all of 2014, he put up a 143 wRC+ in AAA, got called up by the Mariners in late June, and proceeded to hit .298 / .357 / .631 (171 wRC+) in 185 PA, while playing 13 - 15 R/150 defense in LF. He'll be 33, and given the SSS of this year, no one's going to give him a guaranteed 3 years, and maybe not two.
Carlos Gonzalez, Col. Two years left at $19M a pop, and worth just about that or a little less. Acquisition cost would be relatively low. Makes sense in a scenario where we're trading for a pitcher.
Andre Ethier, LAN. Same contract as Gonzalez, not as good a player and not worth his salary, but still a possible or likely upgrade to Castillo. Minimal acquisition cost. Reported good clubhouse guy.
J. D. Martinez, Det. Two years of arb left, so the acquisition cost would be quite a bit higher than for Gonzalez or Ethier, but some kind of Castillo for Martinez swap makes a lot of sense for them. Anthony Gose in CF is just not happening, their sole CF prospect of note, 2014 20th overall pick Derek Hill, just put up a 610 OPS in low-A at age 19, their only OF hope in AAA, Steven Moya, is a RF like Martinez, and their system is thin. (If Moya hadn't struggled badly to make contact in AAA after a AA season that got him ranked #100 by MLB.com, this would almost be a no-brainer for them.) Like Gutierrez, a RHB, and that's easier to fit in our lineup than a 4th LH one like Gonzalez or Ethier.
I was going to also include Curtis Granderson, who has two years left at 15.5 AAV. With Cespedes leaving via FA, they do need a CF, but dealing Granderson would just open up a bigger hole in their lineup.
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Post by thursty on Oct 4, 2015 3:40:49 GMT -5
There is no parallel universe in which the Tigers would even consider trading JD Martinez (2014: 153+, 2015: 138+) for Rusney Castillo (Martinez is even younger). Gose in CF may not be happening, but either is that trade.
In fact, I will venture that the Red Sox literally couldn't give him away; they've probably already put him on waivers and he went unclaimed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2015 4:11:04 GMT -5
How about re-acquiring Josh Reddick? He's getting too rich for Oakland and is heading into his walk year. I think Oakland would bite if Marrero was dangled.
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Post by artfuldodger on Oct 4, 2015 6:20:53 GMT -5
I could see DD more likely to trade JBJ at peak value than Castillo. The Mets, Royals, or Padres are 3 teams that I could see trading for JBJ on either a straight trade or 3 team trade.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 4, 2015 7:02:05 GMT -5
They need two top-flight relief arms. I was as big a champion of this idea as anyone, but it's no longer true. They need one, and in fact, there's barely room for two. Keep in mind that the value of a second added arm is the marginal difference been him and Tazawa in the 7th, Tazawa and whomever is next on the depth chart in the 6th, and so on. It's small. Rich Hill threw nearly half a relief season's worth of innings, using an arm slot he'd never tried before, got command of his always nasty five-pitch repertoire, and put up a 2.50 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 2.28 FIP, and 1.55 ERA. He'll sign a relatively team-friendly contract, and there's no way any reliever you could acquire will project to be more valuable, given his ability to start (and after the first time through the order allowing .242 / .306 / .424 in 36 PA, he allowed .091 / .143 / .106 in 70). Ditto for Kelly and Wright; given Buchholz's health and Hill's probable innings limit, they'll get a bunch of starts, too, and Kelly at least has potential to be as good in the pen as the guy who you want to take his innings. And with one or two of those three guys (depending on the health of Buchholz and the others) in the pen and capable of going 2 innings frequently, you can use Layne more as a LOOGY. So that's six spots spoken for. So the second guy, when everyone is healthy, would bump Ross to AAA. And Ross is an above-average MLB reliever who can throw multiple innings himself. And furthermore, Jean Machi, in his last 11 outings, has a 2.60 xFIP, 2.28 SIERA, 4.07 FIP (thanks to a 25.0 HR/FB%), and a 1.86 ERA, which is to say that given his track record he's pitched well enough to keep on the 40-man and take a look at in ST. And perhaps more importantly, Noe Ramirez has a 3.00 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 3.89 FIP (again courtesy of a 25.0 HR/FB%), and 3.38 ERA in September, and he'll be in AAA, and Matt Barnes came into today with a 3.62 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.00 ERA in September, and he'll be in Pawtucket, too. (These samples may or may not be all that meaningful, but they're certainly way better than sucking). When you add them and Aro to Light and Workman in AAA, there's a very solid chance that you'll get at least one guy who can really help the team at some point. Signing a FA reliever to bump Ross and Machi off the roster and further block all 5 PawSox candidates makes little sense, and trading for one makes even less sense. You'd be much better off taking the money or the talent and using it to get an even better frontline starting pitcher, elite reliever, or fourth OFer. Since relievers and their numbers vary so much from year to year (that might be the hardest part of a club to project) wouldn't it be wise to assume that the numbers will not tell the whole picture. Years of projections and actual results will lead anyone to that conclusion. Bullpen building is the hardest part of a team to build for nearly all GM's. That in mind I'd stick with the original assessment of 2 top 8 inning guys. That and an ace, and anything else is icing on the cake.
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Post by jmei on Oct 4, 2015 10:34:09 GMT -5
Carlos Gonzalez, Col. Two years left at $19M a pop, and worth just about that or a little less. Acquisition cost would be relatively low. Makes sense in a scenario where we're trading for a pitcher. I think while this is true if you look at the projections, after a pretty solid offensive bounceback season (.269/.323/.535), the Rockies aren't going to move him unless they get a good prospect package in return, and would eat cash to do so. Franklin Gutierrez is a great find. He wasn't on my radar before, but definitely is now. If he's finally healthy, he could be a really, really good player who would be available for cheap.
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 4, 2015 10:53:07 GMT -5
The one Castillo trade that really makes sense is to deal him to a rebuilding small-market team who has no CF and no good CF prospect in the high minors, but has a very good or great LFer (or RFer) with a year or two of control remaining. Does anything like that situation exist, even if you involved a third team? A question worth looking into. The only 2017 FA good corner OF who plays for such a team is very interesting ... Josh Reddick. Damn you Eric, been thinking this over the last couple of days and concluded that he's the guy I wanted. Came here to see you beat me to it. Even if we keep Castillo, I don't trust him as our starting LF going into 2015, adding Reddick (who is entering the dreaded ARB3 year in Oakland) would be an awesome move to me. We don't need to make many changes to the lineup, but adding a #4 OF'er would be nice.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 4, 2015 11:25:30 GMT -5
Have to admit picking up Reddick would be outstanding.....and in so many ways!
Hard to believe he is still only 28. He has, somehow, worked out his biggest problem at the plate....namely striking out. He has been up 578 times and has struck out just 63 times!! Wow. Compare that to his performance in 2012: 673 at bats and 151 K's. Now he did hit 32 bombs that season, but his OBP was poor.
He has hit 20 homers this year. I like that he is left-handed, still young, is an excellent defensive outfielder, and has an howitzer for an arm.
I have no idea what it would take, but for a GM that gave up someone named Josh Donaldson, maybe we can make it work. I'm glad he is finally becoming more expensive. He is making 4.1 million this season and with arb this winter I could see it going up significantly. He's a free agent in 2017.
NOW with Betts and Bradley.....that would be one helleva of an outfield. Maybe we could even extend him because Beane won't be able to.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Oct 4, 2015 11:35:28 GMT -5
Franklin Gutierrez looks a good gamble.
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