Red Sox outfield discussion

Good catch. When I was doing my math, I was counting his rookie season 2010 as a full season and shouldn't have. Therefore he's a free agent after the 2016 season completes, so dealing for him would get you 4 years.

Of course if you're dealing the young pitching and Xander away for him, this means Stanton will be on a Red Sox team that cannot pitch as he rakes his HRs (and would also lose out on a cost-controlled young all-star SS that Xander will be).

So I'd still wait it out in regards to Stanton. Barring a deal to NY or Texas, he will still most likely become a free agent looking for $25 million/year or whatever the going rate is by then, and will be available at a still youngish age.

...to which, Beasley, I say 'so's your old man'...

I am biased against the Yankees ...but not against their players individually. I probably have seen 120 Yankee games over the past 3-4 years so that is not SSS.

My "eye test" is the same one that you use and from which you formulate your own judgments (reported here). The fact that none of us are "scouts" by designation does not mean that we cannot assess, from observation, foot speed, range, athleticism, relative arm strength, apparent bat speed, authority with which a ball is batted etc.

Swisher is, IMO, not a particularly good fielder but is probably adequate for Fenway LF. Think Manny. He is the perfect fit as a Sox dirt dog at the plate. He has wonderful strike-zone judgment from both sides and is, on that basis alone, a possible target for the Sox. Indeed, we were interested in signing him prior to the Yankees acquisition.

All I'm saying is confirmation bias might be playing a role here. While you're going to recognize obvious greatness (Cano, Sabathia, etc.), you might have selection bias in remembering the handful of poor plays Swisher made over the many decent plays he made. Almost everyone is guilty of this on some level, and I was just pointing this factor out since you admitted you root for them to lose...that might cloud your objectivity in player evaluation even if you aren't aware of it at the time.

The bigger point here is that the TV eye test is very flawed. You don't get to see the positioning, you don't get to see the routes taken, you really don't get any type of full picture with that perspective. I'm not saying Swisher's defensive value is accurately reflected in UZR or whatever metric the conversation was about, I'm just reminding you of the flaws of the tv eye test evaluation.

Honestly, that list isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of Nava, but it should serve to help stifle the strange Logan Morrison fascination. Morrison might also be the only player worse defensively than Nava, provided Manny doesn't sign anywhere.

You really wouldn't want Desmond Jennings??

Also, ftr, Morrison was playing hurt for a lot of the year.

Isn't the bolded like being the smartest Kardashian? (EDIT: Maybe you mean he's a top ten first basemen who is also being paid the minimum, in which case I disagree that he's top-ten.) Last year, there were 14 first basemen with a wRC+ higher than 121 (min. 250 PAs), including luminaries like Garrett Jones. I'm not saying Morrison's a bad player per se, but he's far from a star. His first year was built off the back of an unsustainable .351 BABIP, and, despite his great plate discipline, I'm not sure he has enough power to be more than a two to three WAR player at 1B (he's 25 already and never topped a .181 ISO above low-A). That's still a useful player (and much better than anyone else currently on the roster), but is it worth trading for a player whose ceiling is a better version of James Loney?

(Counterpoint: Youkilis had similarly great plate discipline numbers in the minors and only put up a combined .173 ISO in AAA and .143 ISO in AA. That said, I don't think we should bet on Morrison to become the next Youkilis.)

It's not. The list was only among those who qualified. There were several teams that had multiple players playing the position. Further, Nava adds nothing defensively and declined substantially over time, in BOTH of his seasons. A player with a w/RC of 100 has performed at a league average level, for ALL hitters. How can a player who plays a position on the right side of the defensive spectrum, be average with a w/RC of 100?

The list you gave is of players who aren't players you want playing every day and includes a player that was released twice, Abreau. Yet even many of them I'd prefer over Nava because they offer more in every other aspect of the game.

Yes they could do a hell of a lot worse than Nava as a platoon LF, they could pick someone off the street, but virtually every available option via free agency or in the Red Sox system either because they have more versatility and/or better defense, or they are just plain better hitters. I'd rather have Jeremy Hazelbaker on the team than Nava. He wouldn't get on base as much, but he'd be far better in every other aspect of the game.

I don't think that Nava would actually have a w/RC of 100 if he played a significant amount of time and even if he did, given his baserunning and defense, he'd be far below average. If the Red Sox value him properly, they cut him in my view.

If you're going off the fangraphs list, there are multiple players who were not primary LF (Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, etc.). But you're right that if you set the minimum PAs to 300 and limit the list to players who played the majority of their innings at LF, Nava would probably fall to the high teens (18-19 or so). That's still in the average range for me.



He's not a plus defender but I don't think he's a Manny-esque terrible one, either. He has a UZR/150 of -6.0 in limited appearances and this very site has his arm as average-to-above-average and his range as average.



I've answered this above-- for 2012 and the past several years, LF has been a position where a 103 RC+ is league average. In the post-steroid era, the offensive expectations at the corner outfield positions have really declined.



Looking at the list of available FA LFs (link), I see only a handful of players I'd rather have than Nava (Gomes, Hairston, Ross). If you limit it down to potential left halves of platoons (Nava versus righties: .261/.369/.399, 110 wRC+, which is better than Gomes (93), Hairston (86), and Ross (92)), the only players who are better than Nava are Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick, and no other LF is close, even if you account for defense and baserunning.

I'd be shocked if Hazelbaker could put up a .300 OBP in the major leagues. This is a guy with obvious holes in his swing who struck out a quarter of the time in AA last year. He's a good baserunner and has good range but takes bad routes to the ball and has a below-average arm. That still might make him a better runner/defender than Nava, but the offensive difference between the two more than makes up for it. Nava's minor league line of .306/.403/.474 is leaps and bounds better than Hazelbaker's .259/.345/.434.

FYI:
"Ben Cherington isn’t afraid to admit the team’s interest in Josh Hamilton, going on XM Radio on Tuesday and saying that the team still has interest in the free-agent outfielder. The host of the show, former MLB general manager Jim Bowden, tweeted this on Tuesday afternoon during the interview with the Boston GM. JIM BOWDEN @jimbowdenespnxm Ben Cherington told us that they are still pursuing FA Josh Hamilton calling him " a terrific talent" SXM 209/89"

Read more at: nesn.com/2012/11/report-red-sox-still-pursuing-josh-hamilton-see-outfielder-as-terrific-talent/

Bingo. Guys like Ludwick, Victorino, and Ross are going to require multiyear deals in the $6-10m range as they enter their mid-to-late 30s. Even the likes of Gomes and Hairston might end up pushing $4-5m a year, and those guys are platoon players at best. I'd rather have Nava at the minimum and save my cash for pitching and 1B/RF. Remember that Nava was out to a .896 OPS start through May until he got hit with thumb and wrist injuries. He's probably not actually that good, but he's cheap and chronically underrated.

Sean McAdam ‏@sean_McAdam
Source: #RedSox are narrowing their outfield search to Cody Ross and Jonny Gomes. ow.ly/ftC3O #RedSoxTalk