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Post by telson13 on Mar 21, 2016 10:58:47 GMT -5
Check out the fangraphs article on velocity separation I posted in this thread. Better 17-18 mph than 7-8. Interesting article, but it is bolstering my point not contradicting it ... Espinoza has a range of nearly 25 mph(!) from the top to the bottom (fastball to curve). He's got 17-18mph just on his fastball to his change. As that piece says about Chin, "There’s a pitch that goes 92, a pitch that goes 83 and breaks armside, a pitch that goes 83 and breaks gloveside, and a pitch that goes 20 mph slower than the fastest offering. That’s a lot for a hitter to deal with." If he added a cutter (or hard slider) at around 88-89, Espinoza would have a FB at 95 and change at 80 that presumably break the same way (probably arm side), then a cutter/hard slider at 88-89 and a curve at 73 that break away from the hitter. A full range of 23-25mph, but even cooler, he'd have two pairs of pitches 15-17mph apart, one pair that trends away from the hitter and one that trends toward him. Granted, I'm giving him another pitch in this little scenario, but a cutter/slider's not that hard to learn. I didn't say it was contradicting you, simply that the article suggests that working the limits of velocity delta seems to increase effectiveness. I think your point of adding a cutter (essentially, a high-velo slider, say at 91-92 instead of 96-97) is a good one. The Sox seem to encourage that, although some guys (Lester) flourish with it while others (Buchholz) should just scrap it. But I agree, he's got a fundamentally dangerous repertoire in the mold of Kershaw or Pedro: different looks, big velo range, solid to excellent movement. A commandable 4th pitch just makes him that much more dangerous.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 21, 2016 14:15:24 GMT -5
Dan Shaughnessy is really good and might be the only guy down at the globe with a clue anymore. He just pushes the envelope too much because well that's what gets paid to do and his bosses probably push him to do that because that's what sells. Dan's negative comments sells actually. Dan was the only guy that was pushing for Hanley Ramirez to get another chance while Cafardo was probably trying to trade him to the Cowboys for Tony Romo. Yeap he probably tried to do that and nope he probably couldn't tell the difference between a baseball player and a football player at this point. I keep forgetting that Speier switched to the globe. He and maybe Dan might be the two best the globe has.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 21, 2016 17:25:41 GMT -5
I'm not trading Espinoza for anything less than Jose Fernandez. That's the only guy I could actually cope with losing Espinoza for. Anything else is just plain moronic. Even then I'm still cringing at trading a young Espinoza for often injured Fernandez. Sale is preferable to Fernandez. After accounting for league (usual difference between leagues is 0.25 run) and park factors, they're pretty similar (compare FIPs and xFIPs). And Sale has 4 years of control, has no significant injury history, and is coming off of a full healthy season. Fernandez does have the youth advantage, but that may make him more likely to leave as a FA. There's no way I trade Espinoza for Fernandez, not with that TJ history. He's a real risk to need a second by 30. Then again, I'm just ridiculously high on Espinoza. I wouldn't trade him for anyone. That's a bet that I think is a loser 60+% of the time. And it's not just the DH. All those NL pitching stats are put up against NL hitters, who are inferior according to the interleague game results. And those hitters are putting up their stats against pitchers who are inferior and who even less impressive than they seem ehen you first adjust for interleague play, because they're putting up their stats against hitters who are secretly less impressive because they're putting up their stats against secretly less impressive pitchers who are ... Nobody calculates this correctly by doing it with iterations. The real factors are about 5X what you measure with one pass. As an OK first assumption, let's divide the league imbalance equally between pitchers and hitters. Sale faced tougher hitters than MLB average, and Fernandez easier, and that added 0.11 to Sale's RA and subtracted -0.17 from Fernandez's. Which is to say that the AL had a 4.01 ERA last year and the NL had a 3.90, because of the lack of the DH. If all 30 clubs had played a balanced schedule, however, the AL would have had a 3.89 ERA and the NL a 4.02 despite their pitchers facing pitchers in the #9 hole half the time. The competitive imbalance is roughly 0.24 of ERA, versus the DH factor of about 0.11. Now, the league imbalance was not split equally between hitters and pitchers. And the DH factor actually can't be measured precisely by simply taking the ERA difference between the leagues. I may work on that next. But this is a solid start.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 21, 2016 22:05:18 GMT -5
I still can't get over how great that Speier picture is. You know the guy's alright when he self-identifies with that shot.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 22, 2016 7:16:25 GMT -5
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Post by burythehammer on Mar 28, 2016 12:59:09 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 31, 2016 22:03:42 GMT -5
Dark horse for minor league POY... www.baseballamerica.com/minors/red-sox-dominate-player-of-the-year-favorites/#tR5xOppuTTu6hR3o.97Tough to see him win it unless he's insanely efficient with his pitch counts and manages some stupid good numbers (130 IP-highly unlikely, obviously, and a sub-2 ERA with multiple promotions and a K rate over 13/9 is my guess), but fun to imagine. Also doesn't hurt that two of the three favorites are also in the Sox system. Nice to see they take Benintendi's power potential seriously, too. And Moncada could be a 20/80 threat. Nice year for prospect watching as a Sox fan.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 1, 2016 8:04:57 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2016 8:05:52 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2016 10:39:31 GMT -5
He's got a little twist to hide the ball when he comes set, too. And even with the slow-mo, it's tough to differentiate pitches (looks like the last is a curve)...he's pretty good at repeating his motion. And he mixes speeds well, too. Easy 94-98...wow.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2016 12:34:36 GMT -5
Just remembering back to my playing days, I just don't see how it's possible to be able to hit both his fastball and his changeup. It would be one or the other and it would be all about guessing right, which pretty much means you're doomed from the start, especially when there's even a 3rd pitch. It's similar stuff to the most filthy closers. I imagine he'll add a 88-90ish cutter at some point too. I cannot contain my excitement about him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2016 14:23:00 GMT -5
I hope everyone who watched that video answers honestly when their sweetheart asks them "honey, did you look at any porn today?"
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Post by telson13 on Apr 4, 2016 22:39:46 GMT -5
Odds on a promotion date? I'm guessing June 17th. I think he gets at least one start in Portland, even if it's playoffs.
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Post by thursty on Apr 5, 2016 3:27:56 GMT -5
Seems like he needs to work on his fastball command
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 5, 2016 3:42:54 GMT -5
Seems like he needs to work on his fastball command A 4.64 K/BB ratio as a 17 year old is a sure sign of problems. I'm guessing he'll never make it out of Greenville.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 5, 2016 5:25:12 GMT -5
Do we think he starts opening day?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 5, 2016 5:34:19 GMT -5
Do we think he starts opening day? If so, I hope it's at home. Ed Jenson does Drive home games on MiLB.TV.
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Post by thursty on Apr 5, 2016 5:54:34 GMT -5
No, I'm pretty sure Price is still scheduled.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 5, 2016 10:49:41 GMT -5
Odds on a promotion date? I'm guessing June 17th. I think he gets at least one start in Portland, even if it's playoffs. Unless he's just toying with the league, this is super aggressive. I'd all-star break, at least. Maybe a few weeks later. And that obviously assumes he's pitching extremely well. I don't think he pitches in Portland this year. I'd say July & August (and Sept) in Salem, then starting in Portland next year would be plenty fast enough. He could still be ready for a call-up towards the end of next year. Ideally, it's 2018 before we see The One.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 5, 2016 11:06:22 GMT -5
Odds on a promotion date? I'm guessing June 17th. I think he gets at least one start in Portland, even if it's playoffs. Unless he's just toying with the league, this is super aggressive. I'd all-star break, at least. Maybe a few weeks later. And that obviously assumes he's pitching extremely well. I don't think he pitches in Portland this year. I'd say July & August (and Sept) in Salem, then starting in Portland next year would be plenty fast enough. He could still be ready for a call-up towards the end of next year. Ideally, it's 2018 before we see The One. I'm thinking 2012 Barnes at Greenville, and 2012 Dylan Bundy in high A. I think he'll force aggressive movement. But I think you're right about 2017...probably no more than a Sept cup of coffee, if even that given his obvious innings limitations at that point (maybe 140-150?).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2016 11:25:38 GMT -5
Odds on a promotion date? I'm guessing June 17th. I think he gets at least one start in Portland, even if it's playoffs. Unless he's just toying with the league, this is super aggressive. I'd all-star break, at least. Maybe a few weeks later. And that obviously assumes he's pitching extremely well. I don't think he pitches in Portland this year. I'd say July & August (and Sept) in Salem, then starting in Portland next year would be plenty fast enough. He could still be ready for a call-up towards the end of next year. Ideally, it's 2018 before we see The One. I know that telson answered you himself, but since I've been making the same sort of guess, I can answer that, yes, I think by June he'll be essentially toying with hitters. Obviously, being merely excellent will not be a setback or disappointing, but I'm optimistic that he'll be dominant sooner than later.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2016 11:39:10 GMT -5
From the first two pages of this thread. I omit the counter-arguments by telson and myself out of modesty. And because we've been right so far doesn't guarantee we will continue to be, but it probably makes it more likely. Espinoza turned 17 like 3 months ago. Staying in the DSL and building up arm strength is fine. Opening next year at Lowell would be great. I'm not saying he won't move to the GCL this season just trying to pump the breaks a little bit. It's great to hear that he is doing great so far and is coming along great but talking about him opening next season in Low-A is too premature. As I said its not that I think it's not possible for him to accelerate the time table. But he has thrown 7 innings in the DSL to me is way too early to be talking about that. King Felix was much further along from a phisical stand point. This kid is 160 right now and has a lot of growth to do yet. He needs to build arm strength to handle a full season workload. Those guys you mention were really advance phisically and were "maxout" at that point so it makes sense that they could handle moving so fast as teenagers. The comparison is not just how hard you throw. Maybe he is phenom and moves incredibly fast like Felix or Doc. But opening next year in Lowell would be incredibly fast to me. Not making another crazy comp. Just pointing out a big fundamental difference between pitching and hitting. If a prodigy pitcher has a great arm and great mechanics leading to plus command of multiple pitches, that's it, just about. He's a finished product. A hitter fitting a comparable description, as a general rule, still needs 1500 PA or more to learn pitch recognition. Look at how dramatically better Bryce Harper is now that he's got 2058 pro PA under his belt. There's no equivalent for pitchers. Facing 2000 hitters is going to add only a small uptick in how good you are against them. But, like, they still have lots of learning to do. And it's probably still best to err on the side of controlling them in their prime. And lastly, they still need to build up innings. That's probably the biggest reason I don't see Espinosa starting 2016 in Greenville (even if theoretically he could end up there before Lowell's season would begin). I wonder if he dominates the GCL, that he will end up in Lowell. I think he needs to be challenged more, so I like the promotion. So, reasonable folks who thought he wouldn't begin this season until Lowell did, and who viewed finishing last year there as a best-case.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 5, 2016 12:01:39 GMT -5
I dunno, call me crazy but I'll always err on the side of not assuming a guy is a potential generational talent until I have more than a few DSL innings and scant scouting info to go on.
And I say that as someone who generally wants to see aggressive promotions with our top guys, including Neo.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 5, 2016 12:34:10 GMT -5
I would like for you to point out to me what was wrong with anything a I said in the context of when I made those comments.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2016 12:40:41 GMT -5
Eric, in June of last year he was in the freaking DSL. Cut the crap.
Also, don't be modest - go ahead and point out the post you made at that time in which you said he'd be in Greenville to start this season.
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