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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 13, 2016 7:13:19 GMT -5
The biggest problem with Espinoza's season is that a ton of his grounders are turning into hits because he's in front of a crummy Greenville defense. His .352 BABIP is way out of proportion with his batted ball numbers, but right in line (even a tad lower) with all of the other Greenville starters. He has a 2.99 FIP! It goes without saying, I think, that a 2.99 FIP as an 18-year old in the South Atlantic League is outstanding. In a way I think that's good that his results have lagged, because it's tempered expectations and presumably allowed him to work on remaining poised when he makes a good pitch, gets a ground ball, and it turns into a hit. Good to know as well as the scouting report. Perhaps the guns are different but in the GCL he was hitting up to 99 with his FB and not as filled out as apparently he is now.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 13, 2016 10:38:23 GMT -5
The biggest problem with Espinoza's season is that a ton of his grounders are turning into hits because he's in front of a crummy Greenville defense. His .352 BABIP is way out of proportion with his batted ball numbers, but right in line (even a tad lower) with all of the other Greenville starters. He has a 2.99 FIP! It goes without saying, I think, that a 2.99 FIP as an 18-year old in the South Atlantic League is outstanding. In a way I think that's good that his results have lagged, because it's tempered expectations and presumably allowed him to work on remaining poised when he makes a good pitch, gets a ground ball, and it turns into a hit. Good to know as well as the scouting report. Perhaps the guns are different but in the GCL he was hitting up to 99 with his FB and not as filled out as apparently he is now. Also, maybe the Twins, Rays & Orioles had bad GCL teams last year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2016 10:45:17 GMT -5
Good to know as well as the scouting report. Perhaps the guns are different but in the GCL he was hitting up to 99 with his FB and not as filled out as apparently he is now. Also, maybe the Twins, Rays & Orioles had bad GCL teams last year. Huh. Too bad nobody was saying that was a possibility last year. Oh wait... In all seriousness, might be interesting to see what's happened to the numbers of Espinoza, Raudes, Allen, Steen, De Jesus, etc. after moving on to "real" leagues after getting out of the complex. Could be useful in a month when everyone's ready to push someone like Hildemaro Requena into the top 10 or something.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2016 11:52:04 GMT -5
Also, maybe the Twins, Rays & Orioles had bad GCL teams last year. Huh. Too bad nobody was saying that was a possibility last year. Oh wait... In all seriousness, might be interesting to see what's happened to the numbers of Espinoza, Raudes, Allen, Steen, De Jesus, etc. after moving on to "real" leagues after getting out of the complex. Could be useful in a month when everyone's ready to push someone like Hildemaro Requena into the top 10 or something. It's some of it, but inconsistent command is the much bigger factor. Between the GCL and the SAL, 14 of his 26 starts have been outstanding (FIP of 2.20 or less). Based on 16 starts in A ball and 10 in R, you'd expect that to split 8.6 in A ball and 5.4 in R. The actual split is 8 and 6. He's had 5 good starts, 2.95 to 3.50 FIP. They're in exactly the expected ratio, 3 in A and 2 in R. He's had 4 mediocre starts, 3.95 to 4.45. Half of them have been in A ball. And then three bad starts -- 5.00, 5.11, 7.56. All in A ball. His best 70% of his starts have gone from 1.41 FIP to 1.88. The bottom 30% has gone from 3.95 to 5.09. Or 80% vs. 20%: 1.67 to 2.20, vs. 4.20 to 6.09. He's been a bit less dominant when on, but a lot worse when off. And these numbers are almost entirely driven by K and BB, so hitter quality is a relatively small factor. It probably contributes to a lower K rate when he's on, but the higher BB rate when he's off is probably mostly or entirely him. You're not seeing tangible differences between R and A ball in the ability to lay off borderline pitches. Starts with BB/9 at 2.25 or lower: 8 of 10 in R ball 8 of 16 in A ball.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2016 12:25:01 GMT -5
Just to make sure, am I reading this right that you defined the quality of his starts using FIP, then said that the problems in his bad starts are K and BB? Aren't you just concluding what your controlling variable was?
Anyway, I was making a separate point that it'd be interesting to me to see the numbers of the dominant 2015 GCL pitchers now that they've moved up, that's all.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2016 12:58:05 GMT -5
Just to make sure, am I reading this right that you defined the quality of his starts using FIP, then said that the problems in his bad starts are K and BB? Aren't you just concluding what your controlling variable was? Anyway, I was making a separate point that it'd be interesting to me to see the numbers of the dominant 2015 GCL pitchers now that they've moved up, that's all. FIP and K/BB are measuring almost the same thing (since he gave up only 1 HR). Using FIP is just the best way to turn the K/BB into a metric, withe the bonus of factoring in the HR (which we happen to know was on a mistake pitch). The argument was that the overall rise in FIP (which is to say, performance) is due largely to to a much higher percentage of games with subpar command, and only in small part to an overall rise in FIP because of general lesser effectiveness.
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