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Post by jchang on Apr 7, 2016 16:59:08 GMT -5
Dylan Bundy is probably an example of pushing a top prospect too fast. He may have had the raw talent and brute force to be viable in MLB at age 19, almost 20, but to do so, he had to throw harder than he should have been throwing, and before was ready. is he going to recover, or has his career been destroyed? I would be patient, letting AE do no more than A and A+ this year.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 7, 2016 17:25:24 GMT -5
Dylan Bundy is probably an example of pushing a top prospect too fast. He may have had the raw talent and brute force to be viable in MLB at age 19, almost 20, but to do so, he had to throw harder than he should have been throwing, and before was ready. is he going to recover, or has his career been destroyed? I would be patient, letting AE do no more than A and A+ this year. I don't think you can retrospectively look at an injury and then ascribe it like that. Doc Gooden pitched nearly 300 innings at age 20 in MLB, and he was healthy before the cocaine...and still threw 100 mph nearly a decade later. Felix Hernandez put up tons of innings at a young age and has been very healthy. Bundy always threw very hard, which is a TJ risk factor. And, he had a limited number of innings that year (about 105). Some guys just get hurt. At no point did Bundy struggle, so I doubt that him essentially trying too hard is responsible for an injury that is the result of chronic stress.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 7, 2016 17:33:12 GMT -5
Butthead, 2 or 3 people have watched 2 innings of early spring training then come to conclusions which imply an AE deficiency based on that alone. That's just totally bogus, particularly since literally every pitcher in baseball is working on their command. AE said he want to go by "the bull". I'm pretty sure he's never heard of The Matrix or Neo, and Neo's last name was Anderson, not his first. Interesting trivia though, Neo's passport expired on 9/11. His nickname will become whatever his teammates call him. Neo is close to a zero chance. If you want to throw tantrums over perceived slights, be my guest. The funny thing is, we probably agree about his development. Which is why I don't get your little hissy fit. It's a comment board on baseball, not the UN, son.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 7, 2016 19:11:48 GMT -5
I could give you a hundred sports nicknames that didn't come from "teammates".
I'd also like to note that those of us calling him Neo aren't whining about anyone else following suit and aren't trying to turn it into some silly issue. I'm sorry if it bothers you, but get over it.
And btw, I promise you he knows The Matrix. Not that it matters. You think Mo Rivera was a big Metalica fan?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 8, 2016 4:29:29 GMT -5
I could give you a hundred sports nicknames that didn't come from "teammates". I'd also like to note that those of us calling him Neo aren't whining about anyone else following suit and aren't trying to turn it into some silly issue. I'm sorry if it bothers you, but get over it. And btw, I promise you he knows The Matrix. Not that it matters. You think Mo Rivera was a big Metalica fan? Nobody is turning his nickname into an issue, I could care less what people call him. I just don't think a movie that came out about the time he was born is likely to be what he ends up being called. Your last statement strikes me as seeming clueless on life in a non-English speaking 3rd world country. It's much more likely that he's never been in a movie theater or cares about movies in general. ADD: Just for fun because I think I know the answer: I'm going to a small beach resort (nothing fancy) with friends for a bring your own dinner and night swim. There will be kids and about 15 adults the majority of which speak English as a third language. I'll ask if anybody is familiar with the movie The Matrix.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 8, 2016 9:20:42 GMT -5
Anyways, I wasn't knocking AE so no need to get defensive. I was just trying to bring the conversation back to reality. I actually qualified it to say I like him as much as anyone. People were comparing the video to porn and getting way out of hand on how "good it made him look". I didn't draw any conclusions about the kid just made an observation about the video and it's a legitimate one. The kids a stud but let's keep things in perspective. I'm as giddy as the next but you can do that without being outlandish.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 8, 2016 14:44:34 GMT -5
Concerning Neo's innings limit, we may have an answer:
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 8, 2016 15:49:55 GMT -5
FWIW, the Bundy season previously mentioned was his age 19 season. Espinoza's 18, so a year behind.
And yeah, 100 sounds right. He'll be capped at 5 ip per start. They'll skip him once or twice like they do with everyone. Think Owens in 2012 with 101.2 ip.
I could see Salem if he shoves. If he pitches in Portland, it'd be another one- or two-game cameo to get used to the place he's heading next year.
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Post by jchang on Apr 8, 2016 17:04:20 GMT -5
on the nickname Neo, perhaps it was popular in Venezuela, but has anyone seen it in VZ? the subtitles or voice-over can be tricky. Usually non-name words are translated but not names, but not always. Neo is Greek for young?. so it would translated to jovenes?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 9, 2016 8:19:21 GMT -5
FWIW, the Bundy season previously mentioned was his age 19 season. Espinoza's 18, so a year behind. And yeah, 100 sounds right. He'll be capped at 5 ip per start. They'll skip him once or twice like they do with everyone. Think Owens in 2012 with 101.2 ip. I could see Salem if he shoves. If he pitches in Portland, it'd be another one- or two-game cameo to get used to the place he's heading next year. Yeah, I Dubyaed and "misremembered" Owens as having 110, not 101. So 100-115 or so sounds about right, depending on how efficient Espinoza is. If yesterday was any indication, I'd guess on the higher end of that range. I don't see him putting up nearly 50 BB in those 100-115 innings, so I think he may get a few more innings here and there by keeping his pitch counts low and probably avoiding the really messy starts Owens sometimes had. And while you're right about Bundy's age, it was still his first year (and a full season) in pro ball. I'm not sure the age difference precludes the similarity in experience level, particularly since Espinoza had his pro debut last year. Regardless, I think we expect the same outcome: roughly a half-half split between low and high A, and then a AA cameo. He's probably limited to 140, maybe 150 or so innings next year, meaning MLB is almost certainly out of the picture unless he's just so good at mid-season that keeping him in the minors actually looks like it's hurting the MLB team.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 9, 2016 16:01:25 GMT -5
The kid has very specific goals: He wants to go to the ASG, move quickly to A+ and finish in AA this year!
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Post by telluricrook on Apr 9, 2016 17:48:07 GMT -5
Yeah i never really understood why they count innings and not pitches thrown when it comes to monitoring a pitchers workload. Dice-k used to go 5 innings every start and throw over 100 pitches. Roy Halladay would go 8 or 9 and throw way less than 100 pitches all the time.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 9, 2016 18:41:09 GMT -5
I think some teams, maybe most or all, do track total pitches.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 9, 2016 19:12:34 GMT -5
Tracking IP/pitches: they almost certainly track both. They'll cap both because there's wear from pitch count and there's wear from getting up and down a certain number of times. Hence Espinoza coming out after 5 even with a silly low pitch count.
On the Bundy comparison: Note that U.S. players, even high school ones, have, in theory, better pre-signing coaching than IFAs do and more experience. They also lack the cultural adjustment hurdles that IFAs can have. I get it was his first season, but I think age matters a lot more than it may seem. Probably best to leave it as a rough comparison and admit it's probably not apples-to-apples.
I hate to say it, but the best comps out there for a wunderkind IFA pitcher are Felix and Urias. Felix, like Espinoza, was in rookie ball then got a short cameo in Low A, although his was 2 starts. Then in his second season at age 18, he split the year between High A and Double-A (his numbers are stupid, especially his High A numbers once you realize he dominated the California League of all places...). He then split 2005 at age 19 between AAA and the Bigs. Urias is also a tough comp because he pitched his age 16 season in Low A, only averaging 3 innings a start. He spent his 2nd, age 17 season in the California League. He spent pretty much all of last season at age 18 in Double-A with a 2-game AAA cup of coffee.
Those are both super aggressive paths to try and follow, and Espinoza will have to dominate to get onto them. He certainly could. Like I said, best reasonable path would be if he shoves in Greenville, spends the second half in Salem, and then gets 1 or 2 games in Portland. But spending the whole year in Greenville wouldn't be horrible either.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 9, 2016 21:31:45 GMT -5
Here's a question: Say Espinoza *does* accomplish his goals and gets to Portland. And say in 2017 he dominates there and in 3-4 starts in Pawtucket. Do they give him a mid season "break" and then call him up, since he clearly would be looking like an immediate better-than-fifth starter? How many innings is too many if he logs, say, 110 this year? Do they use him a la Cards/Braves, out of the bullpen for a half-season? My inclination would be to keep him in the minors, but he could force the issue...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 9, 2016 21:41:29 GMT -5
Here's a question: Say Espinoza *does* accomplish his goals and gets to Portland. And say in 2017 he dominates there and in 3-4 starts in Pawtucket. Do they give him a mid season "break" and then call him up, since he clearly would be looking like an immediate better-than-fifth starter? How many innings is too many if he logs, say, 110 this year? Do they use him a la Cards/Braves, out of the bullpen for a half-season? My inclination would be to keep him in the minors, but he could force the issue... I think Urias this year will be an interesting study, I have no doubt he'll spend significant time in LA. When Felix first came up and even into his second year, I recall that he was closely monitored and wasn't allowed any long innings. ADD: Felix is actually a better age comp even though it was longer ago. Their birth dates are close. Urias is actually 6 months older than Anderson relative to baseball age seasons. Also, Anderson packed on some considerable size including his lower half. Pedro body comps are no longer valid.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 9, 2016 23:06:11 GMT -5
Doesn't Anderson throw mostly fastballs?
Can you really make it to double a without other pitches?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 10, 2016 0:43:27 GMT -5
Doesn't Anderson throw mostly fastballs? Can you really make it to double a without other pitches? He threw a lot of changes yesterday but only two or three curves and they were off. It was his first start though. Look at his profile, this is the complete package. BA grades: Fastball: 80. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 60. Control: 60 Projected plus-plus fastball and 2 plus secondaries with plus control. Very rare territory. It's somewhat of a misconception because an 80 fastball (velocity and movement) is going to get a lot of ink or pixels as the case may be. There were only three 80 grade fastballs as graded by BA in all of the minors.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 10, 2016 4:37:05 GMT -5
Here's a question: Say Espinoza *does* accomplish his goals and gets to Portland. And say in 2017 he dominates there and in 3-4 starts in Pawtucket. Do they give him a mid season "break" and then call him up, since he clearly would be looking like an immediate better-than-fifth starter? How many innings is too many if he logs, say, 110 this year? Do they use him a la Cards/Braves, out of the bullpen for a half-season? My inclination would be to keep him in the minors, but he could force the issue... If you're trying to craft a scenario wherein he gets to the bigs as a teenager than yeah, this would be it. How likely it is is another question, but it's obviously more likely with him than it's been with any other pitcher we've had in most of our lifetimes.
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Post by thebogeyman on Apr 10, 2016 6:24:25 GMT -5
If you're trying to craft a scenario wherein he gets to the bigs as a teenager than yeah, this would be it. How likely it is is another question, but it's obviously more likely with him than it's been with any other pitcher we've had in most of our lifetimes. If he dominates Greenville for 5 to 10 starts, I don't see the point in keeping him down. Sure, he can work on things no matter where he is, but they should at least challenge him. As far as acclimating, Salem makes more sense since there are a lot if potential future teammates there.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 10, 2016 12:48:59 GMT -5
Here's a question: Say Espinoza *does* accomplish his goals and gets to Portland. And say in 2017 he dominates there and in 3-4 starts in Pawtucket. Do they give him a mid season "break" and then call him up, since he clearly would be looking like an immediate better-than-fifth starter? How many innings is too many if he logs, say, 110 this year? Do they use him a la Cards/Braves, out of the bullpen for a half-season? My inclination would be to keep him in the minors, but he could force the issue... If you're trying to craft a scenario wherein he gets to the bigs as a teenager than yeah, this would be it. How likely it is is another question, but it's obviously more likely with him than it's been with any other pitcher we've had in most of our lifetimes. Yeah, I'm kind of wondering if there's really a realistic scenario where he puts in significant MLB time as a teenager. I suppose there's a very slim chance he starts 2017 in MLB straight out of ST (and basically only A-ball experience) a la Gooden or Fernandez, but it seems pretty unlikely. The attached question is, just how dicey would the Sox's rotation have to be for that option to be viable? I'd prefer that they not enter that territory, myself.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 10, 2016 12:52:11 GMT -5
If you're trying to craft a scenario wherein he gets to the bigs as a teenager than yeah, this would be it. How likely it is is another question, but it's obviously more likely with him than it's been with any other pitcher we've had in most of our lifetimes. Yeah, I'm kind of wondering if there's really a realistic scenario where he puts in significant MLB time as a teenager. I suppose there's a very slim chance he starts 2017 in MLB straight out of ST (and basically only A-ball experience) a la Gooden or Fernandez, but it seems pretty unlikely. The attached question is, just how dicey would the Sox's rotation have to be for that option to be viable? I'd prefer that they not enter that territory, myself. I just don't see how they could put him in the majors next year in any scenario, knowing they could only get 130-140 innings out of him. That would create a lot of stress on the team for roster management that isn't even injury related.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 10, 2016 13:01:42 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm kind of wondering if there's really a realistic scenario where he puts in significant MLB time as a teenager. I suppose there's a very slim chance he starts 2017 in MLB straight out of ST (and basically only A-ball experience) a la Gooden or Fernandez, but it seems pretty unlikely. The attached question is, just how dicey would the Sox's rotation have to be for that option to be viable? I'd prefer that they not enter that territory, myself. I just don't see how they could put him in the majors next year in any scenario, knowing they could only get 130-140 innings out of him. That would create a lot of stress on the team for roster management that isn't even injury related. Not unless they Cardinaled/Braved him, I agree. First half bullpen, second half rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 14, 2016 23:55:48 GMT -5
Anderson himself settles it: “My goals are big this year,” Espinoza said through translator Daveson Perez last month. “I want to start off in Greenville, pitch 50 or so innings, and then hopefully be promoted to High A. I want to make the [All-Star] Futures Game this year in San Diego, and hopefully I can have maybe two or three starts in Double A. Those are my goals for the season.
“I know this is a far-fetched goal. There will surely be a lot of people who don’t believe I can do it or who doubt that I can do it. But I know, and I have faith, in that I will make it to that spot that I see myself.”
“If we’re speaking of what’s going to happen in a year, I see myself starting the year in Double A, being there for a little while, then getting called up to the majors, then being in the majors and not get told to go back down,” he said. “I want to be in the running for Cy Youngs in the future. I want to go to All-Star Games in the future. I want to be recognized as one of the best pitchers in the league. I want to have statistics to back that up, and I want to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/04/14/anderson-espinoza-confident-his-future/PuDSdooJtaVThs7s3HENSJ/story.html
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Post by kyla13 on Apr 15, 2016 1:17:36 GMT -5
Anderson himself settles it: “My goals are big this year,” Espinoza said through translator Daveson Perez last month. “I want to start off in Greenville, pitch 50 or so innings, and then hopefully be promoted to High A. I want to make the [All-Star] Futures Game this year in San Diego, and hopefully I can have maybe two or three starts in Double A. Those are my goals for the season.
“I know this is a far-fetched goal. There will surely be a lot of people who don’t believe I can do it or who doubt that I can do it. But I know, and I have faith, in that I will make it to that spot that I see myself.”
“If we’re speaking of what’s going to happen in a year, I see myself starting the year in Double A, being there for a little while, then getting called up to the majors, then being in the majors and not get told to go back down,” he said. “I want to be in the running for Cy Youngs in the future. I want to go to All-Star Games in the future. I want to be recognized as one of the best pitchers in the league. I want to have statistics to back that up, and I want to be one of the best pitchers in Red Sox history.” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/04/14/anderson-espinoza-confident-his-future/PuDSdooJtaVThs7s3HENSJ/story.htmlVery disappointing to hear from the so-called "The Chosen One". He only wants to be recognised as one of the best pitchers in the league? Not THE best in the league?
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