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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by arzjake on Jul 25, 2015 12:42:11 GMT -5
John Heyman reports that the Red Sox have received hits on Victorino, Uehara and Tazawa. Doesn't mean anything will come of it, but that's what he is reporting. Good gracious, what would anyone offer for Victorino at this point? I love what he did for the Sox in 2013 but aside from being a platoon OF vs. LHP and a late inning defensive replacement, when he's healthy, he's all used up. In retrospect, he was basically a 1.3 year, $39 million contract. TAKE WHAT YOU CAN GET! Your right, Victorino won't net an A prospect, more important clear space for another player to gain experience.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 25, 2015 17:25:19 GMT -5
Why trade and hope to re-sign Cueto? Figure odds are low anyone two months from free agency is going to sign. Red Sox Stats tweet Globe: The Red Sox are "all-in" on Cueto, hoping to trade and sign. They have been in talks for Carlos Carassco, Sonny Gray & with the Mets. 1:15pm - 25 Jul 15 The Cueto rumor has to either be a joke or misinformation. Why get in a bidding war for 2 months of negotiation rights? Personally, I wouldn't trade Owens or Johnson (really I wouldn't trade any prospects till the offseason). At the very least they are valuable depth, and they both have solid and near term upside. I've been impressed with Owens this year and his ability to identify his weakness and work on it to get better. If gray is on the table all bets are off though.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 25, 2015 17:32:01 GMT -5
The Cueto thing is just Nick Cafardo having a laugh, right?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2015 21:53:18 GMT -5
The Cueto thing is just Nick Cafardo having a laugh, right? I'm sure Cafardo believes it. Of course it makes absolutely no sense at all whatsoever. Why would the Sox outbid other teams in surrendering talent for a rental who is very likely to test the free agent market? As opposed to simply waiting for him to hit free agency, signing him to his big bucks, and surrender no young players or a draft pick?
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Post by soxfan84 on Jul 26, 2015 11:47:57 GMT -5
Forget the people mentioned:
Sox send: Rodriguez, Vazquez, Owens, free Castillo, Margot, Guerra
Sox Get: Jose Fernandez
Crazy, sure, but maybe? Marlins would likely not trade a Spanish player in that market but Boras is his agent they likely won't sign him long term and get a Cuban and 3 other potential latin stars back, so maybe?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 12:21:01 GMT -5
Would like to see the Sox move De Aza, Victorino, Napoli, Uehara, Ogando, and Breslow. I would also see what you can get for Holt, if you can get a major return I think you need to consider it. Knowing your not going to get great returns for players not named Uehara or Holt, I would look to trade them for arms to rebuild the pen next year. Thinking if you eat almost all of the salary of Victorino and Napoli you should be able to get a Matt Barnes type of pitcher for the bullpen next year, Players that have had success in the minors but have struggled in the majors.
Thinking you should be able to get a top 100 prospect or something close to that for Uehara, which is why I think we need to trade him. For Holt I would want more, I want a return like we got for Miller last year. It needs to be a slam dunk, a true no brainer deal. If not we should just hold onto him.
One more thing, how bad does the Lackey deal look? I remember hating that deal last year and I hate it more this year. If you were going to trade him you needed a big return, we should have just held onto him. Not saying that Lackey would have saved this team, lots of players having down years, but we might be close enough in the standings that we are buyers and not sellers.
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Post by soxfan84 on Jul 26, 2015 12:35:01 GMT -5
I don't think you get much for Uehara (age) or Holt (pedigree). If either brought a Erod type prospect I wouldn't hesitate but I wouldn't trade either just for sake of making a trade, would need a good return back. The Lackey trade is terrible but like you said it was just Lackey. I never understood the Craig half and wanted Martinez but Cards probably weren't willing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 12:39:34 GMT -5
I wanted Shelby Miller or Martinez, if you couldn't get them, they should have just held onto Lackey.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 12:40:36 GMT -5
Assuming the Sox do not get an ace in a trade now, the two FA pitchers who interest me the most are Cueto and Price. Price is about to be 30, but he is an incredibly durable pitcher who has gotten better over time. I think he probably has at least five more years of premium pitching ahead, assuming no serious injuries.
Cueto is a little younger and it will be interesting to see how he does with KC the rest of this season and in the post-season.
I will not be completely surprised if Hamels winds up with the Sox, although right now it doesn't look very likely.
My first choice of a deal would be one that unloaded some expensive under-performing players for a power-hitting outfielder, and/or a good-hitting 1B.
I am dubious that the Sox are going to get a young cost-controlled really good pitcher, except possibly in a deal with San Diego in which the Sox take on one of those outfielders, and perhaps another pitcher.
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2015 12:59:44 GMT -5
My first choice of a deal would be one that unloaded some expensive under-performing players for a power-hitting outfielder, and/or a good-hitting 1B. My first choice is to trade Breslow for Trout. Doubt that happens, though.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 26, 2015 13:02:27 GMT -5
My first choice of a deal would be one that unloaded some expensive under-performing players for a power-hitting outfielder, and/or a good-hitting 1B. My first choice is to trade Breslow for Trout. Doubt that happens, though. It never hurts to ask, right?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 13:16:43 GMT -5
Assuming the Sox do not get an ace in a trade now, the two FA pitchers who interest me the most are Cueto and Price. Price is about to be 30, but he is an incredibly durable pitcher who has gotten better over time. I think he probably has at least five more years of premium pitching ahead, assuming no serious injuries. Cueto is a little younger and it will be interesting to see how he does with KC the rest of this season and in the post-season. I will not be completely surprised if Hamels winds up with the Sox, although right now it doesn't look very likely. My first choice of a deal would be one that unloaded some expensive under-performing players for a power-hitting outfielder, and/or a good-hitting 1B. I am dubious that the Sox are going to get a young cost-controlled really good pitcher, except possibly in a deal with San Diego in which the Sox take on one of those outfielders, and perhaps another pitcher. I agree Red Sox need to go all in and sign a David Price or Cueto in the offseason. I hope Price is next to be traded so neither have draft picks attached to them.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 27, 2015 17:56:28 GMT -5
What we need (but obviously won't get) is another reset deal. Sandoval, Ramirez, Porcello, Castillo and Craig for literally nothing. Hell, throw in $40 mil and a couple of decent (not great) prospects.
Any takers? Didn't think so.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 28, 2015 12:17:36 GMT -5
I have to disagree that we need another reset. Just move Sandoval to first base, Porcello will rebound, really think that pressure of a new team and a huge new deal messed with him. Next year no one will be looking at him to become an ace like they were this year, a lot less pressure. By next year he should be a good 3/4 starter. Castillo hasn't really been given a chance, lets see what he does for the rest of the year, before eating tons of money and trading him. Ramirez is getting better in the field and by next year should be a lot better then he was this year. Also really think if Big Papi gets to 500 homeruns next year he might retire and thus open up DH for Ramirez, which I think was the plan all along. Craig is a lost cause, would really like to ship him to the Padres for James Shields in a straight up deal and would be willing to eat a little bit of his money to make it work, but not a lot, maybe a few million a year.
Just remember that players like Beckett were seen as a clubhouse problems, Carl Crawford couldn't handle Boston and wasn't the best clubhouse guy in my opinion. I don't think the new guys are a problem, just having down years and that happens all the time in MLB. We just got very unlucky in that a bunch of them all had down years at the same time.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 13:06:31 GMT -5
I don't think there's any chance San Diego does that deal without at least a couple of decent prospects attached. At least Shields can be a decent Major League player at present, Craig is hitting badly in AAA. I also don't really like the idea of paying Shields ~$20m per year to be a back-end starter, which is what I think he'd be pitching half his games in Fenway, where he's never pitched well
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2015 14:06:43 GMT -5
I have to disagree that we need another reset. Just move Sandoval to first base, Porcello will rebound, really think that pressure of a new team and a huge new deal messed with him. Next year no one will be looking at him to become an ace like they were this year, a lot less pressure. By next year he should be a good 3/4 starter. Castillo hasn't really been given a chance, lets see what he does for the rest of the year, before eating tons of money and trading him. Ramirez is getting better in the field and by next year should be a lot better then he was this year. Also really think if Big Papi gets to 500 homeruns next year he might retire and thus open up DH for Ramirez, which I think was the plan all along. Craig is a lost cause, would really like to ship him to the Padres for James Shields in a straight up deal and would be willing to eat a little bit of his money to make it work, but not a lot, maybe a few million a year. Just remember that players like Beckett were seen as a clubhouse problems, Carl Crawford couldn't handle Boston and wasn't the best clubhouse guy in my opinion. I don't think the new guys are a problem, just having down years and that happens all the time in MLB. We just got very unlucky in that a bunch of them all had down years at the same time. Sandoval at 1B? People complain about Napoli already, and he's been a better hitter than Sandoval this year, not to mention that his defense is way better than Panda's would be.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 28, 2015 14:21:01 GMT -5
Sandoval at 1B? People complain about Napoli already, and he's been a better hitter than Sandoval this year, not to mention that his defense is way better than Panda's would be. I don't entirely disagree, because I think there's a better chance that Sandoval bounces back somewhat and returns to being a useful player next year without adding a position change, but I don't buy that he'd be worse than Nap at 1B. Fangraphs has Nap as a wash (0 DRS) this year, and Sandoval has the reflexes and hands to be (potentially) a very good gloveman at first. I think switching him over there might encourage him to care less and eat more though, so I'd rather keep him at 3B
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2015 14:50:02 GMT -5
Sandoval at 1B? People complain about Napoli already, and he's been a better hitter than Sandoval this year, not to mention that his defense is way better than Panda's would be. I don't entirely disagree, because I think there's a better chance that Sandoval bounces back somewhat and returns to being a useful player next year without adding a position change, but I don't buy that he'd be worse than Nap at 1B. Fangraphs has Nap as a wash (0 DRS) this year, and Sandoval has the reflexes and hands to be (potentially) a very good gloveman at first. I think switching him over there might encourage him to care less and eat more though, so I'd rather keep him at 3B Crazy how much of a burden this guy is.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2015 16:42:33 GMT -5
We're better off dumping Sandoval with $60 million included than to move him to 1B.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2015 17:07:45 GMT -5
We're better off dumping Sandoval with $60 million included than to move him to 1B. Agreed, sadly.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 28, 2015 17:25:30 GMT -5
We're better off dumping Sandoval with $60 million included than to move him to 1B. That's crazy (both the dumping him and the moving him to 1B). He has 20.8 oWAR in nearly 8 seasons, or approx. 3.5 oWAR/yr. Yes, this year he sucks, but unless you think he's going to be a below replacement value player for his age 29-32 years, he's going to be worth more than his remaining contract (approx. $84.5mm), less $60mm, or $6mm/yr. Second, keep in mind that taking out his RHB stats would increase his OPS by 80 points, move his OPS+ into the mid-110s and increase his current oWAR from 0.8 to the low 2s, which means we are not talking about dumping Pablo or moving him, despite his fielding deficiencies this year. Just keep patient, and he'll be fine.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2015 18:21:33 GMT -5
We're better off dumping Sandoval with $60 million included than to move him to 1B. That's crazy (both the dumping him and the moving him to 1B). He has 20.8 oWAR in nearly 8 seasons, or approx. 3.5 oWAR/yr. Yes, this year he sucks, but unless you think he's going to be a below replacement value player for his age 29-32 years, he's going to be worth more than his remaining contract (approx. $84.5mm), less $60mm, or $6mm/yr. Second, keep in mind that taking out his RHB stats would increase his OPS by 80 points, move his OPS+ into the mid-110s and increase his current oWAR from 0.8 to the low 2s, which means we are not talking about dumping Pablo or moving him, despite his fielding deficiencies this year. Just keep patient, and he'll be fine. Unless the whole fat guy aging curve red flags are real, in which case this is him and he is screwed. It's easy to think he definitely will rebound offensively, but we don't know for sure. He really scrapes the bottom of the barrell with his approach, which may be the worst I've ever seen out of a major leaguer. A guy with bat to ball skills like him could be a great offensive player.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 28, 2015 18:35:49 GMT -5
I have to disagree that we need another reset. Just move Sandoval to first base, Porcello will rebound, really think that pressure of a new team and a huge new deal messed with him. Next year no one will be looking at him to become an ace like they were this year, a lot less pressure. By next year he should be a good 3/4 starter. Castillo hasn't really been given a chance, lets see what he does for the rest of the year, before eating tons of money and trading him. Ramirez is getting better in the field and by next year should be a lot better then he was this year. Also really think if Big Papi gets to 500 homeruns next year he might retire and thus open up DH for Ramirez, which I think was the plan all along. Craig is a lost cause, would really like to ship him to the Padres for James Shields in a straight up deal and would be willing to eat a little bit of his money to make it work, but not a lot, maybe a few million a year. Just remember that players like Beckett were seen as a clubhouse problems, Carl Crawford couldn't handle Boston and wasn't the best clubhouse guy in my opinion. I don't think the new guys are a problem, just having down years and that happens all the time in MLB. We just got very unlucky in that a bunch of them all had down years at the same time. That's just a whole lot of "hopefully" Ramirez is worth his contract if he hits like he did in 2013. The team was already counting on a rebound from 14 when they signed him. Some level of quality between the two seasons makes it an OK contract. The fact that he instead continued to decline just makes the deal worse. He'll be 32 next year and needs to come close to being the hitter he was at 29 to justify his contract the next three years. His terrible defense just makes it worse. Sandoval's bat makes him a mediocre 1B at best. Certainly not a near 20 mil player. He's also a fat man who's stats have declined for about 4 years in a row. Porcello has just never done anything to justify a superstar contract. I liked him as a pickup, but it was clearly a bad contract from the get-go. You're counting on bounce backs from those three that you really have no reason to be confident will happen (especially the first two) and, even if you get them, they're still not worth the money they're owed. Castillo, meanwhile, looks to me like an athlete much more that a ballplayer. Craig, of course, is just a disaster. We could deal those 5, pay off between 10-15% of their salaries and still save over 70 mil per year. That much would almost be enough to sign, theoretically, Price, Cueto AND a Justin Upton type. I would take the money and the chance to spend it wisely over wish casting miracle performances from the bad contracts we already have.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 29, 2015 0:04:51 GMT -5
Question? It's been mentioned that both Tazawa and Uehara are trade possibilities. I understand from a value standpoint they may be the best tradeable commodities but if you traded them how would you build your bullpen for next season? Specifically who's closing games for you? It's a weak free agent class at closer and it doesn't make sense to move prospects for one. If the team had signed Miller that would have been a different story. To compete next season it's awful hard to move either of those arms with other questions already about the remainder of the pen.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 29, 2015 0:15:44 GMT -5
Any thoughts on trading Miley?? I still think he is a decent 4/5 going forward but he may also have some value. It would allow the Sox to try out some of the young guys for the rest of the season, and clear a little space for Zimmerman/Price/Cueto.
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