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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by theburn on Jul 29, 2015 6:38:54 GMT -5
Any thoughts on trading Miley?? I still think he is a decent 4/5 going forward but he may also have some value. It would allow the Sox to try out some of the young guys for the rest of the season, and clear a little space for Zimmerman/Price/Cueto. With Bucchholz essentially done for the year, Masterson already in the pen, Kelly most likely headed in the same direction, there's space for the young guys. Plus with the younger pitchers (Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) likely up against inning restrictions, it seems like the Sox probably need to add pitching (whether its a frontline starter, or more realistically just an innings eater) just to get through the season.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 29, 2015 7:03:17 GMT -5
Any thoughts on trading Miley?? I still think he is a decent 4/5 going forward but he may also have some value. It would allow the Sox to try out some of the young guys for the rest of the season, and clear a little space for Zimmerman/Price/Cueto. With Bucchholz essentially done for the year, Masterson already in the pen, Kelly most likely headed in the same direction, there's space for the young guys. Plus with the younger pitchers (Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) likely up against inning restrictions, it seems like the Sox probably need to add pitching (whether its a frontline starter, or more realistically just an innings eater) just to get through the season. Buchholz done for the year? Did I miss something? I thought his ulnar was not torn but sprained and he received a platelet injection. Last I heard it looked like a couple of weeks.
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Post by nasonr on Jul 29, 2015 7:24:08 GMT -5
With Bucchholz essentially done for the year, Masterson already in the pen, Kelly most likely headed in the same direction, there's space for the young guys. Plus with the younger pitchers (Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) likely up against inning restrictions, it seems like the Sox probably need to add pitching (whether its a frontline starter, or more realistically just an innings eater) just to get through the season. Buchholz done for the year? Did I miss something? I thought his ulnar was not torn but sprained and he received a platelet injection. Last I heard it looked like a couple of weeks. He was transferred to the 60 Day DL, which means he is out until September 11th at the earliest.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 29, 2015 8:09:37 GMT -5
It makes no sense for Buchholz to come back this year unless we go on a 20 game winning streak and were in contention this September.
Let Owens and Johnson pitch.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2015 11:30:56 GMT -5
We're better off dumping Sandoval with $60 million included than to move him to 1B. That's crazy (both the dumping him and the moving him to 1B). He has 20.8 oWAR in nearly 8 seasons, or approx. 3.5 oWAR/yr. Yes, this year he sucks, but unless you think he's going to be a below replacement value player for his age 29-32 years, he's going to be worth more than his remaining contract (approx. $84.5mm), less $60mm, or $6mm/yr. Second, keep in mind that taking out his RHB stats would increase his OPS by 80 points, move his OPS+ into the mid-110s and increase his current oWAR from 0.8 to the low 2s, which means we are not talking about dumping Pablo or moving him, despite his fielding deficiencies this year. Just keep patient, and he'll be fine. I agree that it's too soon to do either. I was just pointing out that if any solution includes moving him to 1B which I continually see over and over, then dumping him is better. He's either a 3B for us, or he should be off the team. I'd bet on Napoli again before I'd put Sandoval at 1st. He will never have the bat for it and his fielding isn't going to magically get better there because it's 1st instead of 3rd. His arm is his main defensive weapon.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 29, 2015 18:40:49 GMT -5
Any thoughts on trading Miley?? I still think he is a decent 4/5 going forward but he may also have some value. It would allow the Sox to try out some of the young guys for the rest of the season, and clear a little space for Zimmerman/Price/Cueto. With Bucchholz essentially done for the year, Masterson already in the pen, Kelly most likely headed in the same direction, there's space for the young guys. Plus with the younger pitchers (Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) likely up against inning restrictions, it seems like the Sox probably need to add pitching (whether its a frontline starter, or more realistically just an innings eater) just to get through the season. There's no reason Masterson couldn't be put back in the rotation, or even Kelly for that matter if needed. You also have Steven Wright. You could give Barnes a couple of starts. There are plenty of options to fill all the meaningless starts in August and September. If there were actually a deal for Miley that made sense for the future of the Red Sox, not doing it because you're worried about who starts a few games to run out the season is a perfectly silly reason to turn it down.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 30, 2015 10:53:39 GMT -5
Here's where I am as of this afternoon. 1. Don't do anything until the ASB, except figure out when/if Hanley, Nava ShaneO and Hanigan become/are healthy. Let Masterson keep his starting spot until the ASB and keep Kelly/Johnson/Craig in Pawtucket until then. 2. Use the ASB to gauge interest in our players, start laying the groundwork for trades and figure out promotion paths. However, if the Red Sox are less than seven games out of the 2nd WC, don't sell yet. Once/if the Red Sox are seven games out of the 2nd WC, they should be starting to sell into the market as follows: A. Players on the trade block would clearly include the FAs (Napoli, ShaneO, De Aza, Masterson, Breslow) to try to free up roster spots, save a little bit of money and get closer to the luxury tax threshold, although none of these players will bring back any significant return. B. The next tier of players to consider trading are the relievers (Koji, Taz and Ogando) and Buchholz, who are players who will free up money and bring back a significant return. The goal would be to get under the luxury tax threshold this year, open pitching spots for Johnson and either Kelly/Wright in the rotation and Light and Wright/Kelly in the bullpen, and get some additional prospects in trade to plug into the organization and/or to use as trade bait for upgrades. So, with 28 hours and 15 minutes until the non-waiver trade deadline, where do we stand? 1. Clearly the Red Sox are sellers. 2. The Red Sox have had little success trading away their FAs, with only ShaneO being dealt (for peanuts). The Red Sox should be shopping Napoli, De Aza, Masterson and Breslow to free up roster spots. If not traded by tomorrow, they should be put through waivers immediately and re-shopped. In addition, they should be shopping Holt, Koji, Taz and Ogando for value. 3. After the deadline, the Red Sox should move Kelly into the bullpen and bring up Johnson and Owens, making the rotation Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson and Owens, with Koji, Taz, Kelly, Ogando, Machi, Layne and Ross. Wright, Hembree, Aro, Ramirez, Escobar and Barnes can rotate between AAA and Boston as needed until Pawtucket's season ends. 4. With ShaneO traded and Betts and Pedroia hurt, Shaw (once Napoli is traded), Holt, JBJ and Castillo should play daily at 1B, 2B, CF and RF, respectively.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 30, 2015 14:49:51 GMT -5
Here's where I am as of this afternoon. 1. Don't do anything until the ASB, except figure out when/if Hanley, Nava ShaneO and Hanigan become/are healthy. Let Masterson keep his starting spot until the ASB and keep Kelly/Johnson/Craig in Pawtucket until then. 2. Use the ASB to gauge interest in our players, start laying the groundwork for trades and figure out promotion paths. However, if the Red Sox are less than seven games out of the 2nd WC, don't sell yet. Once/if the Red Sox are seven games out of the 2nd WC, they should be starting to sell into the market as follows: A. Players on the trade block would clearly include the FAs (Napoli, ShaneO, De Aza, Masterson, Breslow) to try to free up roster spots, save a little bit of money and get closer to the luxury tax threshold, although none of these players will bring back any significant return. B. The next tier of players to consider trading are the relievers (Koji, Taz and Ogando) and Buchholz, who are players who will free up money and bring back a significant return. The goal would be to get under the luxury tax threshold this year, open pitching spots for Johnson and either Kelly/Wright in the rotation and Light and Wright/Kelly in the bullpen, and get some additional prospects in trade to plug into the organization and/or to use as trade bait for upgrades. So, with 28 hours and 15 minutes until the non-waiver trade deadline, where do we stand? 1. Clearly the Red Sox are sellers. 2. The Red Sox have had little success trading away their FAs, with only ShaneO being dealt (for peanuts). The Red Sox should be shopping Napoli, De Aza, Masterson and Breslow to free up roster spots. If not traded by tomorrow, they should be put through waivers immediately and re-shopped. In addition, they should be shopping Holt, Koji, Taz and Ogando for value. 3. After the deadline, the Red Sox should move Kelly into the bullpen and bring up Johnson and Owens, making the rotation Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson and Owens, with Koji, Taz, Kelly, Ogando, Machi, Layne and Ross. Wright, Hembree, Aro, Ramirez, Escobar and Barnes can rotate between AAA and Boston as needed until Pawtucket's season ends. 4. With ShaneO traded and Betts and Pedroia hurt, Shaw (once Napoli is traded), Holt, JBJ and Castillo should play daily at 1B, 2B, CF and RF, respectively. Concur all around. I think it's worth finding out now if Kelly is ready to be a key bullpen piece or swingman for next season, or if his issues will limit him to mopup or similar. I think the ship has sailed on even #4 starter.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2015 8:46:50 GMT -5
What would the Pads want for Tyson Ross? I'd guess Owens, Margot and a SS prospect?
I'd certainly do Johnson, Bradley, and Marrero. But would Preller? Probably not.
And if Kimbrel was involved, then you're talking something a lot more significant.
I just know that Espinoza, Moncada, Kopeck, Benintendi, and Devers better not be names I see traded today, whether it's for Ross and Kimbrel or Carrasco. I honestly am not too keen on the Sox dealing Margot either.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 31, 2015 9:08:09 GMT -5
I think Ross is a #2 or #3 starter which is not worth trading straight up for Margot. I also don't see why the Red Sox need Kimbrell which would be a waste of resources when they don't have starters who can keep them in the game,
I hope they sell sell sell today and then re-group this offseason as it is going to them at least a couple of years to re-tool.
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Post by jdb on Jul 31, 2015 9:12:02 GMT -5
What would the Pads want for Tyson Ross? I'd guess Owens, Margot and a SS prospect? I'd certainly do Johnson, Bradley, and Marrero. But would Preller? Probably not. And if Kimbrel was involved, then you're talking something a lot more significant. I just know that Espinoza, Moncada, Kopeck, Benintendi, and Devers better not be names I see traded today, whether it's for Ross and Kimbrel or Carrasco. I honestly am not too keen on the Sox dealing Margot either. Margot is someone I wouldn't hesitate to deal. We have to deal good prospects to get good players and we have a great CFer in Betts and a top pick coming up after Margot. I say deal him especially if it keeps Devers out of a trade.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2015 9:16:39 GMT -5
What would the Pads want for Tyson Ross? I'd guess Owens, Margot and a SS prospect? I'd certainly do Johnson, Bradley, and Marrero. But would Preller? Probably not. And if Kimbrel was involved, then you're talking something a lot more significant. I just know that Espinoza, Moncada, Kopeck, Benintendi, and Devers better not be names I see traded today, whether it's for Ross and Kimbrel or Carrasco. I honestly am not too keen on the Sox dealing Margot either. Margot is someone I wouldn't hesitate to deal. We have to deal good prospects to get good players and we have a great CFer in Betts and a top pick coming up after Margot. I say deal him especially if it keeps Devers out of a trade. It's not hard for me to envision an OF of Betts, Margot, and Benintendi down the road, and if the Pads need immediate help for CF, I would think Bradley would be perfect for them, and at the end of the day Ross is more of a rental anyways, somebody who would pitch for another year, and then be somebody who'd probably get the Sox a pick if he leaves. And there's no way I'd deal Devers.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2015 9:17:24 GMT -5
Can someone remind me, if we trade away someone and pay part of his salary, am I right that that does not count against our salary for taxation/penalty purposes?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2015 9:19:23 GMT -5
What would the Pads want for Tyson Ross? I'd guess Owens, Margot and a SS prospect? I'd certainly do Johnson, Bradley, and Marrero. But would Preller? Probably not. And if Kimbrel was involved, then you're talking something a lot more significant. The Red Sox are likely to want to trade one of JBJ/Margot and one of Johnson/Owens for a starting pitcher, since they are the "excess" prospects. SD is talking to MFY about Kimbrel for Mateo, with MFY assuming all of Kimbrel's contract. Mateo and Guerra are reasonably close, prospect-wise. Earlier rumors were centering around Ross-for-Baez, so I would think a Margot+ deal would make sense. Personally, I think the Red Sox name being dropped this morning is simply a ploy to get MFY to up its offer and I'd rather have Carrasco in any case.
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Post by jdb on Jul 31, 2015 9:22:54 GMT -5
Doesn't Ross have two years and Cashner only one? Also Margot is at that level where a lot of top prospects fade out. We've seen Cechini go from a top 25-50 guy and JBJ have a few years of struggles.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2015 9:25:53 GMT -5
Can someone remind me, if we trade away someone and pay part of his salary, am I right that that does not count against our salary for taxation/penalty purposes? That's not my understanding. When the Red Sox made the Punto trade, they assumed $3.9mm in payroll obligations per year, and that money was included in the Red Sox AAV calculation.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2015 9:29:58 GMT -5
Can someone remind me, if we trade away someone and pay part of his salary, am I right that that does not count against our salary for taxation/penalty purposes? That's not my understanding. When the Red Sox made the Punto trade, they assumed $3.9mm in payroll obligations per year, and that money was included in the Red Sox AAV calculation. Yeah, any money included in a trade is included in the AAV calculations. This is how Bill Hall counted for negative cash against the luxury tax calculation when the Red Sox acquired him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 31, 2015 9:30:15 GMT -5
I think Ross is a #2 or #3 starter which is not worth trading straight up for Margot. I also don't see why the Red Sox need Kimbrell which would be a waste of resources when they don't have starters who can keep them in the game, I hope they sell sell sell today and then re-group this offseason as it is going to them at least a couple of years to re-tool. Wait you think Ross is a 2/3, is young, cheap and under team control and you don't think he's worth Margot? For one I think Margot is the most overrated prospect to come through the system in years. Good solid top 100 prospect but I don't see the 14th best prospect in baseball like some do.
Second Ross is a very overrated player in this own right! Do you really want a pitcher with iffy control and a whip of 1.39 in the AL East? Sure he strikes a lot of guys out and has a nice era, but it screams fluke to me the era that is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 31, 2015 9:33:31 GMT -5
I would go after Cashner if I wanted a pitcher from the Padres
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2015 9:39:48 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 6m6 minutes ago #Padres and #Astros have talked trade, but SD wants a young SS and Houston doesn't have one to deal. (Don't say Carlos Correa).
FWIW
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Post by jdb on Jul 31, 2015 9:39:50 GMT -5
I'd go Carasco, Ross then Cashner.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 31, 2015 9:47:33 GMT -5
Keep erod and devers. And please turn swihart or Vazquez, Margot or JBJ. Johnson or Owens plus some lesser pieces into a couple decent pitchers. Then sign one of the big FAs. I can't live threw another season like this.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 31, 2015 10:02:31 GMT -5
I think Ross is a #2 or #3 starter which is not worth trading straight up for Margot. I also don't see why the Red Sox need Kimbrell which would be a waste of resources when they don't have starters who can keep them in the game, I hope they sell sell sell today and then re-group this offseason as it is going to them at least a couple of years to re-tool. Wait you think Ross is a 2/3, is young, cheap and under team control and you don't think he's worth Margot? For one I think Margot is the most overrated prospect to come through the system in years. Good solid top 100 prospect but I don't see the 14th best prospect in baseball like some do.
Second Ross is a very overrated player in this own right! Do you really want a pitcher with iffy control and a whip of 1.39 in the AL East? Sure he strikes a lot of guys out and has a nice era, but it screams fluke to me the era that is.
I think Ross is way more over rated than Margot and I would not trade them even up. The Red Sox need some swing and miss pitchers and I would not trade one of the best prospects for someone like Ross who likely will be no better than Miley. I would rather the Red Six sell high on Holt and Koji and then get what they can for Napoli and possibly Miley. Bring up Johnson, Owens, etc and see how they do. Re-group thus offseason to build a pitching staff around their young pitchers and a couple of top free agent pitchers.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 31, 2015 10:10:47 GMT -5
Margot, Guerra, and Johnson are our most expendable top prospects. I think Guerra is peaking in value, and this might be just the right time to trade (given potential IF logjam), though we have to find a team willing to wait
In our "dream prospect scenario" Moncada probably ends up in the outfield unless Pedroia has petrified by the time everyone reaches their potential, so that makes Margot more redundant especially given early returns on Benintendi.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 31, 2015 10:18:25 GMT -5
I'd rather surrender Marrero than Guerra right now. Though Guerra has a higher ceiling, Marrero is more ML ready, which should appeal to the Padres or another team with a SS need. Marrero doesn't fit with the Sox right now. And Guerra, who's a few years away, may find a different landscape when he's ready.
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