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6/19-6/21 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by p23w on Jun 21, 2015 17:37:54 GMT -5
Happy Fathers' Day to one and all. Well, it's officially Summer and the offense is starting to produce like we all hoped it would coming out of ST. Then again, I don't think anyone saw us digging the hole that was excavated this Spring.
One "grudge" I had from the ST reports was the constant blather about team chemistry. Yeah, you can have a good clubhouse, but winning on the field is the chemistry I'm looking for. As much as I enjoy blowouts, I really want to see winning chemistry in close games. Still not convinced the bullpen is up to this task, but hope springs eternal.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 21, 2015 19:31:48 GMT -5
Maybe you should call in to WEEI. They'd love your negativity. I know, truth hurts sometimes. Sorry I didn't realize we weren't allowed to discuss the team here. If you didn't want to discuss Mike Napoli and his poor play, you should have just not responded to my post. Hell, even better, you know you can put me on ignore right?Otherwise, I'll continue to discuss the Red Sox here. You know, I have really neglected that feature, thanks!
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 20:47:56 GMT -5
Day of signing 8/22/15 Aug 22, 2014 at 12:06pm stevedillard said: Reeks of continued reactionary nature of front office. Sure. 2011 emphasis on defense. Overpay long term deal for those skill sets 2012: recognize mistakes of long term deals. Sell off long term contracts. Flexibility and not being locked into seven year deals is the key. 2013. Sign lots of short term deals, depth and redundancy are the keys. Win ws, so only long term deals are team friendly ones, discipline and no overpay for back end. Ellsbury walks. Low offer for Lester. 2014. Crater out, no offense, suddenly overextend on dollars and years for Castillo. What happened to offseason talk about discipline. It now is, as Singer writes, "only money" and the "flexibility of short term deals" that was another talking point, goes away. Money post. To anyone disagreeing with Steve's post, I'd bet not one, but 2 high priced 30 year old starters are signed this offseason.
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2015 20:49:48 GMT -5
Money post. To anyone disagreeing with Steve's post, I'd bet not one, but 2 high priced 30 year old starters are signed this offseason. I'd take that bet (assuming "high priced" means, say, $20m+ AAV). Do you have a wager in mind?
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 20:53:42 GMT -5
Ugh, everyone hits today, then you look at the box and see another 0 for for Napoli. He's gone to complete trash. He's always been streaky, but more importantly, he's destroyed the ball in the 2nd half of season for as long as i can remember. So.. worry more about the JV pitching staff and less about the offense. It'll come if it can get over the former.
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 20:54:24 GMT -5
Money post. To anyone disagreeing with Steve's post, I'd bet not one, but 2 high priced 30 year old starters are signed this offseason. I'd take that bet (assuming "high priced" means, say, $20m+ AAV). Do you have a wager in mind? Pretty confidant. What do you have in mind? Edit: "20m+ AAV". They paid Porcello more so jack your price up. They will pay 25m+ AAV this winter, twice, because that's how they roll. And, yes, I will bet on it. Edit2: Acquiring one of those expensive starters begins now. I think there's a decent chance the partners turn tail and acquire one this year.
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2015 20:55:43 GMT -5
I'd take that bet (assuming "high priced" means, say, $20m+ AAV). Do you have a wager in mind? Pretty confidant. What do you have in mind? Winner sets the loser's profile picture and signature for the entire 2016 season.
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TX
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 20:57:32 GMT -5
Give Steve's post a day's thought and come back to me. You know we're right.
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2015 20:58:51 GMT -5
Give Steve's post a day's thought and come back to me. You know we're right. I guess we'll see, won't we?
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TX
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 21:01:18 GMT -5
See my 2nd edit. Will you agree tomorrow?
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Post by okin15 on Jun 21, 2015 21:01:20 GMT -5
Ugh, everyone hits today, then you look at the box and see another 0 for for Napoli. He's gone to complete trash. He's always been streaky, but more importantly, he's destroyed the ball in the 2nd half of season for as long as i can remember. So.. worry more about the JV pitching staff and less about the offense. It'll come if it can get over the former. Agree. People jumped down my throat a few weeks ago when I said he'd been bad. Yeah, he had that one "hot" streak, but it's got to be more than that if he's giong to be a valuable player. The thing about signing the older starters this winter, I'm with JMEI, and would gladly take that bet.
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jun 21, 2015 21:13:51 GMT -5
So, this pitching staff again, with maybe a Pelfrey or Kendrick thrown in? No way. There is no way this FO will allow this year to repeat next year. No way in hell.
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2015 21:25:21 GMT -5
See my 2nd edit. Will you agree tomorrow? I'll agree tonight.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 21, 2015 21:27:04 GMT -5
There's no way they're using a $20m player as the short side of a DH platoon, nor should they. This season is a lost cause anyway so you might as well give Hanley a chance to figure LF out. Sandoval has been the move I really didn't like even at the time and he's the one that's looked the worst. Even so, he's not THAT expensive by today's standards, and the Red Sox still might get some decent years out of him. You're half right. They will not use Hanley as a part-time DH and that is due to his salary. But they absolutely should get him out of LF. The Red Sox are in the business of winning BB games. Hanley Ramirez is on pace to cause them to lose a staggering 4.3 games with his LF defense (bRef). He's twice as bad as Manny Ramirez was in his worst year and nearly four times as bad as Jim Rice was in his worst year. They should not let him stay in LF any more than a marketing team should keep someone whose strategies are so bad that he's actually causing customers to stop buying the product. In a true meritocracy - which is what a professional sports team should be - Hanley doesn't see LF again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2015 21:28:21 GMT -5
Betts wRC+ at 111. If he continues hitting well as in recent weeks he may be the most valuable CF not named Trout in the AL at the end of the season. 114 at game's end. And that's with as many as 8 hits of BABIP bad luck (that's taking his 7 infield hits at face value; I'm much less confident in my adjustment for that versus my one for BABIP). Would he be headed for an All-Star selection if he were hitting .307 / .356 / .491, and playing +14 R / 150 defense in CF? I certainly think so. Edit: There's no question in my mind that Mookie and Xander are the two best young players the Sox have had since Yaz and Tony C. I've given up on deciding which one is better. That they've come up at the same time is kind of amazing. They need a nickname. "The Thriller B's?"?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 21, 2015 21:38:53 GMT -5
This should actually be its own thread. My 2 cents: The Craig and Masterson contracts aren't nearly expensive enough to be in the question. Neither will compromise the RS ability to make moves. Porcello will have some utility for this team the next four years. Over the long haul, he has a chance to approximate the value of a No. 3 SP. Hanley can hit. For now, his role on this team should be part-time DH - vs. LHP only. Once Papi takes the gold watch (after this season would be a good time), Hanley can take the full-time role. It's too early to tell with Rusney. He looked decent in his short stint last year. That leaves Sandoval. He has the longest and the most expensive contract of this group. He has sucked at 3B, doesn't hit enough to be a legitimate 1B or DH, is declining and appears to any common-sense set of eyes to be out of shape. He's the shortest midget in this group. Craig is signed for two years after next year at a fairly expensive deal. Its absolutely relevant enough to be in question. He's actually signed for two years after this year. His 2018 is a $13 million club option. The buyout is only $1 million. His AAV with the option picked up is $8.6 million. That's not a happy thought, but shouldn't be crushing. If the option isn't picked up, which seems highly likely, his AAV would be $6.2 million. Also, keep in mind that a new Basic Agreement will be in place in 2017. The $189 million luxury tax threshold will go up. The players will demand that it go WAY up, given the amount of money the sport is making.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 21, 2015 21:56:17 GMT -5
Betts wRC+ at 111. If he continues hitting well as in recent weeks he may be the most valuable CF not named Trout in the AL at the end of the season. 114 at game's end. And that's with as many as 8 hits of BABIP bad luck (that's taking his 7 infield hits at face value; I'm much less confident in my adjustment for that versus my one for BABIP). Would he be headed for an All-Star selection if he were hitting .307 / .356 / .491, and playing +14 R / 150 defense in CF? I certainly think so. Edit: There's no question in my mind that Mookie and Xander are the two best young players the Sox have had since Yaz and Tony C. I've given up on deciding which one is better. That they've come up at the same time is kind of amazing. They need a nickname. "The Thriller B's?"? That means one of them has to win an MVP and make the HOF and the other has to win an MVP, lead the league in WAR in one of his non-MVP seasons and be on an HOF track the first six years of his career. I'm talking, of course, about Lynn and Rice. If Xander has a RS career as good as Rico Petrocelli's (10 bREF WAR in 1969!) and Mookie's first six years are as good as Lynn's we should be thrilled. Other than 1977, when he gimped around on a bad ankle, Lynn's lowest bRef WAR in his first six years was 4.4 and he had years of 8.8 and 7.4.
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Post by edmundsoxtusmuskie on Jun 21, 2015 21:59:00 GMT -5
There's no way they're using a $20m player as the short side of a DH platoon, nor should they. This season is a lost cause anyway so you might as well give Hanley a chance to figure LF out. Sandoval has been the move I really didn't like even at the time and he's the one that's looked the worst. Even so, he's not THAT expensive by today's standards, and the Red Sox still might get some decent years out of him. You're half right. They will not use Hanley as a part-time DH and that is due to his salary. But they absolutely should get him out of LF. The Red Sox are in the business of winning BB games. Hanley Ramirez is on pace to cause them to lose a staggering 4.3 games with his LF defense (bRef). He's twice as bad as Manny Ramirez was in his worst year and nearly four times as bad as Jim Rice was in his worst year. They should not let him stay in LF any more than a marketing team should keep someone whose strategies are so bad that he's actually causing customers to stop buying the product. In a true meritocracy - which is what a professional sports team should be - Hanley doesn't see LF again. Where would we put him if not LF? If we were to stop him from playing LF altogether, the only possible alternative to LF is having him DH, letting Ortiz play first, and trading Napoli. Napoli is having a year in which is Rdrs (Defensive Runs Saved) is in the negatives and his offensive contributions don't make up for that. Even at his best, Napoli's defense at first is below average. His Range Factor and Fielding percentage are both below below the league average over his entire tenure at first base, and, as I said before, his defense this year is even worse. Sure, Ortiz is a less experienced first baseman and definitely not on the same level defensively, but Ortiz's defense hasn't really been crippling either. In his last 246 chances as a first baseman, Ortiz has only yielded one error and in his last 17 innings (I know, small sample size) at first, Ortiz has actually been above average in terms of RFG (Range Factor per Game) by nearly three points and has been exactly average in terms of Rdrs. Aside from that, he began his career as a first baseman and has spent over 2000 innings at first. It's not like he's entirely unfamiliar to the position. I think it's unlikely that this will happen; Hence, I don't think there's really any place for him to go but LF.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 21, 2015 22:12:41 GMT -5
You're half right. They will not use Hanley as a part-time DH and that is due to his salary. But they absolutely should get him out of LF. The Red Sox are in the business of winning BB games. Hanley Ramirez is on pace to cause them to lose a staggering 4.3 games with his LF defense (bRef). He's twice as bad as Manny Ramirez was in his worst year and nearly four times as bad as Jim Rice was in his worst year. They should not let him stay in LF any more than a marketing team should keep someone whose strategies are so bad that he's actually causing customers to stop buying the product. In a true meritocracy - which is what a professional sports team should be - Hanley doesn't see LF again. Where would we put him if not LF? If we were to stop him from playing LF altogether, the only possible alternative to LF is having him DH, letting Ortiz play first, and trading Napoli. Napoli is having a year in which is Rdrs (Defensive Runs Saved) is in the negatives and his offensive contributions don't make up for that. Even at his best, Napoli's defense at first is below average. His Range Factor and Fielding percentage are both below below the league average over his entire tenure at first base, and, as I said before, his defense this year is even worse. Sure, Ortiz is a less experienced first baseman and definitely not on the same level defensively, but Ortiz's defense hasn't really been crippling either. In his last 246 chances as a first baseman, Ortiz has only yielded one error and in his last 17 innings (I know, small sample size) at first, Ortiz has actually been above average in terms of RFG (Range Factor per Game) by nearly three points and has been exactly average in terms of Rdrs. Aside from that, he began his career as a first baseman and has spent over 2000 innings at first. It's not like he's entirely unfamiliar to the position. I think it's unlikely that this will happen; Hence, I don't think there's really any place for him to go but LF. Napoli's defense at first base, to the surprise of many, was pretty fantastic in both 2013 and 2014. That's backed up by Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, and the eye test. Even with him declining to more average levels this season by many accounts (DRS still only has him at -1), I don't think you can make an argument for there not being a substantial drop off between him and Ortiz. And, from what I've seen of Nap, his decline hasn't been due to a drop in range, but rather some straight whiffs on dives/picks that he'd typically made plays on in the previous two seasons. I don't think asking Hanley to learn and play first base part time, even this season, would be unreasonable. Tons of non-star players have to learn first base on the fly all the time, and it's hardly recognized as some incredible feat. Being a full time infielder his whole life up until this season, and at much more demanding positions than first, Hanley at least has the hands, range, and arm to be suitable for the position. That's pretty significant. Compare that to the outfield, where the new challenges of judging fly balls off the bat, and accommodating for walls and other fielders were never part of his game.
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Post by edmundsoxtusmuskie on Jun 21, 2015 22:52:37 GMT -5
Where would we put him if not LF? If we were to stop him from playing LF altogether, the only possible alternative to LF is having him DH, letting Ortiz play first, and trading Napoli. Napoli is having a year in which is Rdrs (Defensive Runs Saved) is in the negatives and his offensive contributions don't make up for that. Even at his best, Napoli's defense at first is below average. His Range Factor and Fielding percentage are both below below the league average over his entire tenure at first base, and, as I said before, his defense this year is even worse. Sure, Ortiz is a less experienced first baseman and definitely not on the same level defensively, but Ortiz's defense hasn't really been crippling either. In his last 246 chances as a first baseman, Ortiz has only yielded one error and in his last 17 innings (I know, small sample size) at first, Ortiz has actually been above average in terms of RFG (Range Factor per Game) by nearly three points and has been exactly average in terms of Rdrs. Aside from that, he began his career as a first baseman and has spent over 2000 innings at first. It's not like he's entirely unfamiliar to the position. I think it's unlikely that this will happen; Hence, I don't think there's really any place for him to go but LF. Napoli's defense at first base, to the surprise of many, was pretty fantastic in both 2013 and 2014. That's backed up by Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, and the eye test. Even with him declining to more average levels this season by many accounts (DRS still only has him at -1), I don't think you can make an argument for there not being a substantial drop off between him and Ortiz. And, from what I've seen of Nap, his decline hasn't been due to a drop in range, but rather some straight whiffs on dives/picks that he'd typically made plays on in the previous two seasons. I don't think asking Hanley to learn and play first base part time, even this season, would be unreasonable. Tons of non-star players have to learn first base on the fly all the time, and it's hardly recognized as some incredible feat. Being a full time infielder his whole life up until this season, and at much more demanding positions than first, Hanley at least has the hands, range, and arm to be suitable for the position. That's pretty significant. Compare that to the outfield, where the new challenges of judging fly balls off the bat, and accommodating for walls and other fielders were never part of his game. As far as saying Napoli's defense was below average, I based that on Range Factor. For his career, Nap has been below average, but I believe you're right. The disparity in Range Factor has more to do with the performance of the defense around Napoli than his performance in general. However, when considering moving Ortiz to first you have to consider the net benefit of getting Hanley out of LF. You're also right that there will most certainly be a disparity between Napoli and Ortiz. It would be a difference of about eleven runs per year--assuming Nap's at his usual 5 runs saved per year--and moving Hanley entirely out of the field right now would save about twenty-three runs between now and the end of the season (If we put a league average player in that opening) because Hanley is projected to reach an Rdrs of -38 and he's at -15 now. Hence, just getting Hanley off the field would already make up for the difference. Putting Castillo or De Aza (as Farrell seems to prefer) in LF would fix the problem of defense. However, I agree that moving Ramirez to first makes more sense than moving Ortiz to first as a long term decision but making him the long term DH is a better decision to me. That's sheerly because of the fact that Hanley's an injury prone player and taking him out of the field entirely, and especially the outfield, would mean that he'd be more available to hit, which he's doing a pretty good job of.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 21, 2015 23:09:15 GMT -5
Edit: There's no question in my mind that Mookie and Xander are the two best young players the Sox have had since Yaz and Tony C. I've given up on deciding which one is better. That they've come up at the same time is kind of amazing. They need a nickname. "The Thriller B's?"? Since the beginning of the year, almost half our top ten products according to baseball America are with the team. Youngsters like swihart and Rodriguez have shown tremendous flashes. They have not hurt the team too much this year. What has hurt the team this year are middle of the order hitters not executing! And a starting pitching staff with serious no sense of what it means to be consistent, I remain very high on swihart who was hitting as high as 230 in the majors but was playing in Portland this time last year. One more thought on youngsters: I thought it would take young guys , excluding superstars like trout, a good 800 at bats before they got hitting in the majors down and they showed their true potential, with power developing last. For bogey, he appears right on schedule. The Bonus has been betts figuring it out a little early. I am sure both will have ups and downs over the rest of 2015, but I am very confident they will both reach their potential eventually.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2015 2:21:38 GMT -5
114 at game's end. And that's with as many as 8 hits of BABIP bad luck (that's taking his 7 infield hits at face value; I'm much less confident in my adjustment for that versus my one for BABIP). Would he be headed for an All-Star selection if he were hitting .307 / .356 / .491, and playing +14 R / 150 defense in CF? I certainly think so. Edit: There's no question in my mind that Mookie and Xander are the two best young players the Sox have had since Yaz and Tony C. I've given up on deciding which one is better. That they've come up at the same time is kind of amazing. They need a nickname. "The Thriller B's?"? That means one of them has to win an MVP and make the HOF and the other has to win an MVP, lead the league in WAR in one of his non-MVP seasons and be on an HOF track the first six years of his career. I'm talking, of course, about Lynn and Rice. If Xander has a RS career as good as Rico Petrocelli's (10 bREF WAR in 1969!) and Mookie's first six years are as good as Lynn's we should be thrilled. Other than 1977, when he gimped around on a bad ankle, Lynn's lowest bRef WAR in his first six years was 4.4 and he had years of 8.8 and 7.4. When Jim Rice completed his age 22 season, he had 3.0 (f) or 2.9 (b) WAR in 688 PA. Mookie Betts is less than halfway through his age 22 season and has 4.6 (b) or 3.9 (b) WAR in 502 PA. And that was before last night. Mookie's on a pace to grab nearly 6.0 WAR this year, something Rice did only at ages 25 and 26. Xander's on a pace to have 4.7 (b) or 4.2 (f) WAR at the end of his age 22 season, and I think we all expect him to exceed his pace the rest of the way this year. (And a lot of us feel that the move to 3B last year probably cost him a few WAR.) Fred Lynn at age 22 was having a season comparable to Mookie's ... but in AAA. Mookie's on a pace to top all but two of his seasons, as well. At age 22. And as great as Lynn was for us, a lot of that was his perfect fit for Fenway. In 1979 he had an 831 OPS on the road and 1267 (!) at home. Yaz, BTW, was below replacement level at age 21, and had 4.2 or 4.8 WAR (b / f) in 719 PA at age 22. Mookie's blowing him away, too, and Xander seems likely to pass his career positive total to that point as well. Tony C was on a pace for a 5.1 (b) or 4.2 (f) WAR season at age 22 when he was beaned, but came into that year with 7.5 / 7.4 WAR already. Oh, and 2015 OPS splits by low, medium, and high leverage: Mookie: 732, 711, 898 Xander: 555, 732, 963 Why might that be meaningful? The rest of the team, of course, has an opposite set of splits, and I think it says something about their makeup that they've been the only two guys who don't seem to be pressing with the game on the line.
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Post by tomhouse on Jun 22, 2015 4:13:42 GMT -5
Meanwhile, some team just won 2 out of 3 on the road against the team with the AL's best record. It achieved that with two quality pitching starts. Are they starting to come around?
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jun 22, 2015 4:30:58 GMT -5
There's no way they're using a $20m player as the short side of a DH platoon, nor should they. This season is a lost cause anyway so you might as well give Hanley a chance to figure LF out. Sandoval has been the move I really didn't like even at the time and he's the one that's looked the worst. Even so, he's not THAT expensive by today's standards, and the Red Sox still might get some decent years out of him. You're half right. They will not use Hanley as a part-time DH and that is due to his salary. But they absolutely should get him out of LF. The Red Sox are in the business of winning BB games. Hanley Ramirez is on pace to cause them to lose a staggering 4.3 games with his LF defense (bRef). He's twice as bad as Manny Ramirez was in his worst year and nearly four times as bad as Jim Rice was in his worst year. They should not let him stay in LF any more than a marketing team should keep someone whose strategies are so bad that he's actually causing customers to stop buying the product. In a true meritocracy - which is what a professional sports team should be - Hanley doesn't see LF again. Is it just me or does Hanley look a lot better recently? He made a couple nice plays last night and I haven't seen a blunder in a while
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Post by okin15 on Jun 22, 2015 4:47:40 GMT -5
Meanwhile, some team just won 2 out of 3 on the road against the team with the AL's best record. It achieved that with two quality pitching starts. Are they starting to come around? I like the way that sounds, but unfortunately, I'm still of the opinion that the entire season hangs in the next three weeks' games against the AL East, and particularly in the July 10-12 series against the MFY.
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