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6/19-6/21 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2015 6:41:38 GMT -5
You're half right. They will not use Hanley as a part-time DH and that is due to his salary. But they absolutely should get him out of LF. The Red Sox are in the business of winning BB games. Hanley Ramirez is on pace to cause them to lose a staggering 4.3 games with his LF defense (bRef). He's twice as bad as Manny Ramirez was in his worst year and nearly four times as bad as Jim Rice was in his worst year. They should not let him stay in LF any more than a marketing team should keep someone whose strategies are so bad that he's actually causing customers to stop buying the product. In a true meritocracy - which is what a professional sports team should be - Hanley doesn't see LF again. Is it just me or does Hanley look a lot better recently? He made a couple nice plays last night and I haven't seen a blunder in a while He's looked better lately to me, too. I would be shocked if he ended up at negative 40+ runs.
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Post by jdb on Jun 22, 2015 6:53:27 GMT -5
Meanwhile, some team just won 2 out of 3 on the road against the team with the AL's best record. It achieved that with two quality pitching starts. Are they starting to come around? Probably to little to late but I'm in the camp that would rather see a bunch of development from our guys over securing a top pick. If it happens great but Mookie, Xander, Swihart and Castillio settling in would be better in my opinion.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 22, 2015 6:54:55 GMT -5
Meanwhile, some team just won 2 out of 3 on the road against the team with the AL's best record. It achieved that with two quality pitching starts. Are they starting to come around? Probably to little to late but I'm in the camp that would rather see a bunch of development from our guys over securing a top pick. If it happens great but Mookie, Xander, Swihart and Castillio settling in would be better in my opinion. A "come to Jesus meeting" with management...?
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Post by tomhouse on Jun 22, 2015 6:54:59 GMT -5
Meanwhile, some team just won 2 out of 3 on the road against the team with the AL's best record. It achieved that with two quality pitching starts. Are they starting to come around? I like the way that sounds, but unfortunately, I'm still of the opinion that the entire season hangs in the next three weeks' games against the AL East, and particularly in the July 10-12 series against the MFY. I would give them until the trade deadline but your general proposition is right; they have to play better and fast. I was just pointing out that maybe this is the start of a turnaround.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2015 7:06:27 GMT -5
I'm happy that the upcoming AL East games are meaningful and we aren't totally done yet. And Mookie, Bogaerts and Holt have each individually been worth watching Sox games, so that's a big plus.
Mookie now 30th in fWAR. Betts, Holt, Pedroia, Bogaerts all top 60 position players according to FG.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jun 22, 2015 7:47:38 GMT -5
I like the way that sounds, but unfortunately, I'm still of the opinion that the entire season hangs in the next three weeks' games against the AL East, and particularly in the July 10-12 series against the MFY. I would give them until the trade deadline but your general proposition is right; they have to play better and fast. I was just pointing out that maybe this is the start of a turnaround. I wouldn't really put a deadline on anything, Id just try to win as many games as possible by the end of the season. We have no one on a one year deal to sell off of any value, so unless we're punting next year, which I doubt, I'd just keep this team and try to win as many as we can.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 22, 2015 7:57:00 GMT -5
Victorino's about to come back. We'll probably send Rusney down when he's called up. After Vic gets nicked 2-3 days into his return, I hope we call JBJ back up.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 22, 2015 8:02:27 GMT -5
I would give them until the trade deadline but your general proposition is right; they have to play better and fast. I was just pointing out that maybe this is the start of a turnaround. I wouldn't really put a deadline on anything, Id just try to win as many games as possible by the end of the season. We have no one on a one year deal to sell off of any value, so unless we're punting next year, which I doubt, I'd just keep this team and try to win as many as we can. If possible, I agree with both of you.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 22, 2015 8:03:54 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Hanley look a lot better recently? He made a couple nice plays last night and I haven't seen a blunder in a while He's looked better lately to me, too. I would be shocked if he ended up at negative 40+ runs. Yeah, absolutely ... he's definitely doing some OTJ training out there. It's been ugly to watch, but he is improving. It's hard to think they've "turned it around" or anything like that, but there are a few positive trends here ... most of the players are starting to perform around to expectations, Mookie a lot more than expectations right now. Napoli's the only position player still scraping the bottom of the barrell, and Castillo has a long way to go. They've dug themselves such a big hole that they have to win big over the next month, but it's at least possible it'll happen. Really, though, they have so many teams to climb over to get into contention, it's more likely that the upside is playing .550 ball and still being 7+ back at the ASB, but whatever.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 22, 2015 8:20:43 GMT -5
The standings of each division fairly consistently are in the order of run differential except this year there is something very weird in the AL Eastern Division and to a lesser extent in the West. The current standings in the East are in the reverse order of run differential except for the Sox. In the West Oakland is in last place despite having a substantial positive run differential.
The East: Tampa +19 NY +26 Baltimore +41 Toronto +78 Boston -45
In the West Oakland is in last place with a run differential of +35, which is only four runs less than Houston's +39.
The standings in the Central and in all three NL divisions are in order of run differential, as usually is the case.
Based on historical results, one would think that the current standings in the AL East are likely to change significantly as the season progresses. If Toronto were to acquire some pitching, they would be hard to stop. But it still looks like any team that makes the right moves could win this division.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2015 8:24:04 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Hanley look a lot better recently? He made a couple nice plays last night and I haven't seen a blunder in a while He's looked better lately to me, too. I would be shocked if he ended up at negative 40+ runs. The one thing he still needs to do to become acceptable is is to learn how to come in aggresively on balls. He's obviously afraid of turning singles into XBH's, and there are situations, e.g., one-run lead late, where that's indeed costly. The thing is, when the team has a big lead, the risk / reward of that play gets huge. If the other team is 6 runs down, they need baserunners, and where they are is much less important. You go for the out, and if the ball gets behind you, no big deal. They've been pulling him defensively with big leads (like last night), which is insane. That's when he should be left out there and encouraged to be as aggressive as possible on balls in front of him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2015 9:23:58 GMT -5
The standings of each division fairly consistently are in the order of run differential except this year there is something very weird in the AL Eastern Division and to a lesser extent in the West. The current standings in the East are in the reverse order of run differential except for the Sox. In the West Oakland is in last place despite having a substantial positive run differential. The East: Tampa +19 NY +26 Baltimore +41 Toronto +78 Boston -45 In the West Oakland is in last place with a run differential of +35, which is only four runs less than Houston's +39. The standings in the Central and in all three NL divisions are in order of run differential, as usually is the case. Based on historical results, one would think that the current standings in the AL East are likely to change significantly as the season progresses. If Toronto were to acquire some pitching, they would be hard to stop. But it still looks like any team that makes the right moves could win this division. Toronto is 17-4 in games won by 5 or more runs and 7-14 in one-run games, so that's a big part of why they're where they are. Also a big part of why they're considered a likely Papelbon landing spot.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 10:05:56 GMT -5
The standings of each division fairly consistently are in the order of run differential except this year there is something very weird in the AL Eastern Division and to a lesser extent in the West. The current standings in the East are in the reverse order of run differential except for the Sox. In the West Oakland is in last place despite having a substantial positive run differential. The East: Tampa +19 NY +26 Baltimore +41 Toronto +78 Boston -45 In the West Oakland is in last place with a run differential of +35, which is only four runs less than Houston's +39. The standings in the Central and in all three NL divisions are in order of run differential, as usually is the case. Based on historical results, one would think that the current standings in the AL East are likely to change significantly as the season progresses. If Toronto were to acquire some pitching, they would be hard to stop. But it still looks like any team that makes the right moves could win this division. I know run differential is continually used to determine what records should be, but I think it's inherently flawed to some extent because of the effort and strategy used in games that aren't close and the likely much harder effort and always using your best players in close games. Who cares if you lose a game 15-1 instead of 6-1? Well, run differential cares. The difference between Tazawa and Breslow is pretty extreme. Or Tazawa and Mike Carp. The Sox won 13-2 yesterday but didn't have to face any of the Royals' shutdown relievers they would have had to face in a close game. So they won by a lot more than they likely would have. Run differential also ignores bad luck shown to some extent in ERA/FIP differential and BABIP. If a team has historically bad BABIP for hitters and really high BABIP for the pitchers like the Sox had to start the season, that does not get calculated in the much more simplistic run differential. The team's FIP is still much lower than their ERA.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 22, 2015 11:08:34 GMT -5
All that you say is true, but the fact is, if you look at the historical record, standings usually follow the order of run differential. There certainly are exceptions, but when there is such a close correlation over a long period of time, it is not coincidental. And I think it becomes a better indicator as the season progresses. Scores like yesterday's are countered by similar scores in reverse, etc.
And when it is almost completely upside down, like it is in the AL East, it is something to think about. This doesn't happen and the odds are it won't. It tells me that a lot of shifting of position is likely to occur in the AL East. And, if I am in charge of Toronto, I am trying to find ways of adding a couple of really good starting pitchers as well as RPs. Toronto has a good minor league system. They could part with some good players to get a Hamels and Papelbon - if Rogers will pay for it.
I am somewhat encouraged by the recent performance of the Sox, especially the key younger players. I hope Swihart's injury isn't too bad. He has been hitting pretty well recently. If this upsurge continues, the Sox could get back into contention, but I can't see them winning without improving the pitching, and maybe filling the hole at 1B if Napoli doesn't wake up.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 22, 2015 11:25:36 GMT -5
I am somewhat encouraged by the recent performance of the Sox, but I can't see them winning without improving the pitching, and maybe filling the hole at 1B if Napoli doesn't wake up. You think he's sleeping too much now?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 22, 2015 12:05:27 GMT -5
I am somewhat encouraged by the recent performance of the Sox, but I can't see them winning without improving the pitching, and maybe filling the hole at 1B if Napoli doesn't wake up. You think he's sleeping too much now? What else could it be?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 22, 2015 17:12:24 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Hanley look a lot better recently? He made a couple nice plays last night and I haven't seen a blunder in a while He's looked better lately to me, too. I would be shocked if he ended up at negative 40+ runs. I think he's looked better, too, and in fact his defensive metrics have improved the past month or so. But I also think the defensive metrics understate how bad he is. The metrics don't reflect guys taking extra bases because he's so slow to get to balls that have landed for hits, balls that he's unable to cut off in the gap, or balls that he misplays off the wall. I watched Manny for years and the eye test never indicated to me that Manny was anywhere nearly as bad as Hanley.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2015 17:24:51 GMT -5
Ortiz has a speed score of 0.6, lowest in the MLB and 33% lower than the second lowest. Pedroia is oddly in the bottom 20 in speed score as well, and Sandolval unsurprisingly in the bottom 30 as well.
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2015 17:38:02 GMT -5
He's looked better lately to me, too. I would be shocked if he ended up at negative 40+ runs. I think he's looked better, too, and in fact his defensive metrics have improved the past month or so. But I also think the defensive metrics understate how bad he is. The metrics don't reflect guys taking extra bases because he's so slow to get to balls that have landed for hits, balls that he's unable to cut off in the gap, or balls that he misplays off the wall. I watched Manny for years and the eye test never indicated to me that Manny was anywhere nearly as bad as Hanley. The metrics do generally reflect those items, which is pretty much the only way he has been so bad in so small a sample. If batted balls that are usually singles end up being a double because he misplayed them, that's reflected by UZR and DRS (see, e.g., the explanation of "Enhanced Plus/Minus" here).
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 17:48:30 GMT -5
Hanley is pretty aggravating with his fielding, but if you look at his split defensive #s, I think at least half of his awfulness should be able to be corrected with his arm. His arm isn't physically weak at all, he needs to just throw the ball to the correct base without hesitation. -5 of his total -11 UZR is due to his arm. There is no reason he can't get that to an average arm.
Then again, I expected a lot more than worst defensive player at any position in baseball history when he moved to LF.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 22, 2015 18:12:43 GMT -5
Who cares if you lose a game 15-1 instead of 6-1? Well, run differential cares. The difference between Tazawa and Breslow is pretty extreme. Or Tazawa and Mike Carp. The Sox won 13-2 yesterday but didn't have to face any of the Royals' shutdown relievers they would have had to face in a close game. So they won by a lot more than they likely would have. That a feature, not a bug. A team gets credit for bludgeoning the opposing starter so badly that they only see garbage time relievers. They also get credit for only giving up one run despite not having to use their own best relievers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2015 20:31:20 GMT -5
114 at game's end. And that's with as many as 8 hits of BABIP bad luck (that's taking his 7 infield hits at face value; I'm much less confident in my adjustment for that versus my one for BABIP). Would he be headed for an All-Star selection if he were hitting .307 / .356 / .491, and playing +14 R / 150 defense in CF? I certainly think so. Edit: There's no question in my mind that Mookie and Xander are the two best young players the Sox have had since Yaz and Tony C. I've given up on deciding which one is better. That they've come up at the same time is kind of amazing. They need a nickname. "The Thriller B's?"? That means one of them has to win an MVP and make the HOF and the other has to win an MVP, lead the league in WAR in one of his non-MVP seasons and be on an HOF track the first six years of his career. I'm talking, of course, about Lynn and Rice. If Xander has a RS career as good as Rico Petrocelli's (10 bREF WAR in 1969!) and Mookie's first six years are as good as Lynn's we should be thrilled. Other than 1977, when he gimped around on a bad ankle, Lynn's lowest bRef WAR in his first six years was 4.4 and he had years of 8.8 and 7.4. If Mookie plays the rest of the season the way he's played the season so far, but without the bad BABIP luck, he'll become the 23rd player in MLB history to have a 7.4 or better bWAR season at age 22 or younger, following Eddie Collins, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Rogers Hornsby, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Pete Reiser, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Eddie Matthews, Al Kaline, Vada Pinson, Jim Fregosi, Dick Allen, Johnny Bench, Cesar Cedeno*, Ricky Henderson, Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, and Mike Trout. I'm not saying that this will happen. I'm just saying that's how good he's been so far, without counting the lost hits except by their predictive power. To put this excellence in further perspective, the guys who fell up to 0.5 WAR short are Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey, Arky Vaughan, Sherry Magee, Mickey Mantle, and Frank Robinson. So Mookie can tail off a bit and still end up in OK company. *I've never been convinced that he was 17 when he signed rather than, say, 19. It's very strange to have a 129 OPS+ for your ages 23 through 29 seasons but 157 at ages 21 and 22. That would be a lot more credible with +2 or even +3.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 22, 2015 20:49:28 GMT -5
I think he's looked better, too, and in fact his defensive metrics have improved the past month or so. But I also think the defensive metrics understate how bad he is. The metrics don't reflect guys taking extra bases because he's so slow to get to balls that have landed for hits, balls that he's unable to cut off in the gap, or balls that he misplays off the wall. I watched Manny for years and the eye test never indicated to me that Manny was anywhere nearly as bad as Hanley. The metrics do generally reflect those items, which is pretty much the only way he has been so bad in so small a sample. If batted balls that are usually singles end up being a double because he misplayed them, that's reflected by UZR and DRS (see, e.g., the explanation of "Enhanced Plus/Minus" here). That looks like a cool article and I'll definitely take a detailed look when I have a chance. But I'm thinking of runners other than the hitter taking extra bases on HanRam as he plods after a ball that has landed or kicks one for a second or two in the LF corner. Do the metrics reflect those? And if they do, can we trust that they do so with any real precision? Defensive metrics are a bit squishy to start with and this sort of thing seems even less solid.
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2015 21:24:27 GMT -5
The metrics do generally reflect those items, which is pretty much the only way he has been so bad in so small a sample. If batted balls that are usually singles end up being a double because he misplayed them, that's reflected by UZR and DRS (see, e.g., the explanation of "Enhanced Plus/Minus" here). That looks like a cool article and I'll definitely take a detailed look when I have a chance. But I'm thinking of runners other than the hitter taking extra bases on HanRam as he plods after a ball that has landed or kicks one for a second or two in the LF corner. Do the metrics reflect those? And if they do, can we trust that they do so with any real precision? Defensive metrics are a bit squishy to start with and this sort of thing seems even less solid. Defensive metrics are generally context-neutral, which means they don't take into account a specific runner on base but will apply the average run expectancy difference between a single and a double.
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