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6/29-7/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 30, 2015 21:20:17 GMT -5
Great win. Porcello, you're now officially on the clock. Time to stop talking about being a good as you know you can be. Time to show it. He terrifies me against this team. Team full of power hitters against a guy who has served up pieces of meat often this year.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 30, 2015 22:11:09 GMT -5
So this is what a winning streak feels like. Nice.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 30, 2015 22:52:28 GMT -5
It's not over 'til the fat lady sings, FanGraphs Projections Edition: 8.0% Division Winner 13.5% Wildcard
How low do these have to go to be confident in selling? A 20% shot seems worth it to me given how little we have to actually sell.
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Post by libertine on Jun 30, 2015 23:31:38 GMT -5
Good win, again, tonight.
Was very pleased with the nice bounce back by E-Rod. He really didn't have his best stuff tonight but he was still very effective. Working on not tipping his pitches can only help the cause, lol.
Comprehensively, and absolutely, annoyed at the team for sending Swihart down. What a stupid move. Right now, even if all 4 of them were healthy, he is probably the best of our catching corps. Hanigan wasn't setting the world on fire at the plate before he got injured. And if he is getting sent down so Clay can keep his caddy, Clay needs to suck it up and be a team player. There is no reason he can't have Hanigan as his catcher and keep Blake with the team. He, and his fellow young players, have been the ones who are stepping it up in this good run of games. I can see JBJ going back down but that is really due to De Aza doing such a solid job rather than the fact that Victorino is coming back. I have been very pleased with what I have seen with JBJ at the plate this go round, now that he is getting some AB's against non-Cy Young award pitchers. But for him getting AB's at Pawtucket is more important than being on the bench with Boston. Swihart on the other hand...
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Post by Nick Rabasco2 on Jun 30, 2015 23:46:58 GMT -5
It's over in LA. Yanks lose, meaning that for the second consecutive day, the Red Sox are the only AL East team to win.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 30, 2015 23:55:30 GMT -5
It's over in LA. Yanks lose, meaning that for the second consecutive day, the Red Sox are the only AL East team to win. That's the streak worth talking about.
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Post by Nick Rabasco2 on Jul 1, 2015 0:02:01 GMT -5
Good win, again, tonight.
Was very pleased with the nice bounce back by E-Rod. He really didn't have his best stuff tonight but he was still very effective. Working on not tipping his pitches can only help the cause, lol.
Comprehensively, and absolutely, annoyed at the team for sending Swihart down. What a stupid move. Right now, even if all 4 of them were healthy, he is probably the best of our catching corps. Hanigan wasn't setting the world on fire at the plate before he got injured. And if he is getting sent down so Clay can keep his caddy, Clay needs to suck it up and be a team player. There is no reason he can't have Hanigan as his catcher and keep Blake with the team. He, and his fellow young players, have been the ones who are stepping it up in this good run of games. I can see JBJ going back down but that is really due to De Aza doing such a solid job rather than the fact that Victorino is coming back. I have been very pleased with what I have seen with JBJ at the plate this go round, now that he is getting some AB's against non-Cy Young award pitchers. But for him getting AB's at Pawtucket is more important than being on the bench with Boston. Swihart on the other hand... Swihart hasn't been sent down...? No moves have been made as of right now.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 1, 2015 0:18:22 GMT -5
Right now, even if all 4 of them were healthy, he is probably the best of our catching corps. Hanigan wasn't setting the world on fire at the plate before he got injured. That's absurd. Of course we all hope Swihart at his peak can be better than Hanigan ever was, but he still has a long way to go to get there. Hanigan before he got injured put up a 94 wRC+ mark which is very respectable for a catcher - MLB average this year is 86 wRC+. If you weren't happy with his offensive performance you either don't understand that walks are a GOOD outcome or you expect way too much from catchers. Going forward, Fangraphs RoS projections are 87 wRC+ for Hanigan, 75 wRC+ for Swihart. Despite Swihart's speed, he has actually been a below-average baserunner so far, whereas Hanigan is about average. And then, of course, there is pitch framing, where Hanigan has a great track record and Swihart so far has been below average. 2017? Sure, I'll take Swihart over Hanigan. But in 2015, Hanigan is better and it's not close.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 1, 2015 0:49:10 GMT -5
It's not over 'til the fat lady sings, FanGraphs Projections Edition: 8.0% Division Winner 13.5% Wildcard How low do these have to go to be confident in selling? A 20% shot seems worth it to me given how little we have to actually sell. Sometimes it can be addition by subtraction. The Sox have extra pieces.
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Post by libertine on Jul 1, 2015 1:15:09 GMT -5
Swihart hasn't been sent down...? No moves have been made as of right now. According to the posts earlier in this thread it seems that Farrell stated that when Hanigan is ready Swihart will be sent down. Maybe I misunderstood those posts, or maybe Farrell's comments before the game were misunderstood. If that is the case I stand corrected. I know move has not "officially" been made but that is what I read will be happening when Hanigan is ready. I really hope that is not what happens...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2015 1:49:37 GMT -5
It's not over 'til the fat lady sings, FanGraphs Projections Edition: 8.0% Division Winner 13.5% Wildcard How low do these have to go to be confident in selling? A 20% shot seems worth it to me given how little we have to actually sell. Since June 15th, we've played 14 games, 11 on the road, versus teams with a combined .530 Win Pct, and we've gone 9-5.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jul 1, 2015 8:40:41 GMT -5
Right now, even if all 4 of them were healthy, he is probably the best of our catching corps. Hanigan wasn't setting the world on fire at the plate before he got injured. That's absurd. Of course we all hope Swihart at his peak can be better than Hanigan ever was, but he still has a long way to go to get there. Hanigan before he got injured put up a 94 wRC+ mark which is very respectable for a catcher - MLB average this year is 86 wRC+. If you weren't happy with his offensive performance you either don't understand that walks are a GOOD outcome or you expect way too much from catchers. Going forward, Fangraphs RoS projections are 87 wRC+ for Hanigan, 75 wRC+ for Swihart. Despite Swihart's speed, he has actually been a below-average baserunner so far, whereas Hanigan is about average. And then, of course, there is pitch framing, where Hanigan has a great track record and Swihart so far has been below average. 2017? Sure, I'll take Swihart over Hanigan. But in 2015, Hanigan is better and it's not close. That's surprising. I wonder why the metrics don't like him. There have been several times that he has taken an extra base or reached on a hit when a typical catcher would have been thrown out. And I don't remember any bad baserunning mistakes from him, though that may just be a case of my brain protecting me, lol. EDIT: If these Fangraphs stats work the way I think they do, then the negative factors in his case are wSB (-0.6 - he's been thrown out twice on three steal attempts) and GIDP (-0.9 ... not sure how much I agree with that being a baserunning stat, but it's their rodeo, not mine). Not sure how the "Ultimate Baserunning" component is derived, but that part likes him (+0.7)- just not enough to cancel out the other two components. -0.8 overall - a bit less than a run below average.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2015 8:47:31 GMT -5
Right now, even if all 4 of them were healthy, he is probably the best of our catching corps. Hanigan wasn't setting the world on fire at the plate before he got injured. That's absurd. Of course we all hope Swihart at his peak can be better than Hanigan ever was, but he still has a long way to go to get there. Hanigan before he got injured put up a 94 wRC+ mark which is very respectable for a catcher - MLB average this year is 86 wRC+. If you weren't happy with his offensive performance you either don't understand that walks are a GOOD outcome or you expect way too much from catchers. Going forward, Fangraphs RoS projections are 87 wRC+ for Hanigan, 75 wRC+ for Swihart. Despite Swihart's speed, he has actually been a below-average baserunner so far, whereas Hanigan is about average. And then, of course, there is pitch framing, where Hanigan has a great track record and Swihart so far has been below average. 2017? Sure, I'll take Swihart over Hanigan. But in 2015, Hanigan is better and it's not close. It's true that Swihart got much better after his first 15 games (starting March 23): G AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+ 15 .176 .192 .235 .019 .321 .188 8 25 .280 .330 .378 .068 .216 .313 96 This was driven by much better plate discipline and a (resulting?) immense decrease in popups: O-Sw% Z-Sw% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% .407 .555 .206 .529 .265 .444 .282 .609 .286 .476 .238 .067 (There was no significant change in contact rate.) However, his BABIP in his last 25 games is .355. Does anyone really believe he's a .355 BABIP hitter? My BABIP predictor says he's been a real .311 in the good stretch, which means he got 3 lucky hits, which puts his luck-free line at .244 / .295 / .341. With 5 GDP. The average MLB starting catcher this year is about .249 / .313 / .395. DRS has his defense at -3 in about a third of a season. He's been -1.8 runs pitch framing. He's going to be a very good player, but he's not yet a good MLB starting catcher. He can use more AAA development time. Yes, he may be able to learn as well in MLB, but a team trying to get pack into the pennant race cannot afford to give major PT to a below-average catcher when they have a guy who is above-average ahead of him. And obviously, he can't sit on the bench and play once or twice a week. I hope the 40 games of AAA time he's already missed does not end up hurting him (and perhaps the premature exposure to MLB will end up helping him; that's at least as credible). Certainly the decision to hand him the regular job was a mistake (not a second-guess; I wanted them to trade for Maldonado or Corporan as soon as Hanigan got hurt), as he was basically replacement level over the duration. As far as Leon goes, trading for Maldonado is still a good idea.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 1, 2015 9:07:13 GMT -5
Marrero at 2B for Holt is disappointing as hell. You're just giving Toronto two outs at the bottom of the order. @mlblineups: 7/1 redsox lineup vs TOR Betts CF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B De Aza RF Marrero 2B Leon C Porcello P
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 1, 2015 9:21:54 GMT -5
They may just want to give Holt a day off. He's played every day this month outside of the 1st and the 22nd, which I'm going to guess were off days without looking it up.
Nothing slows up quarter close work like day baseball.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2015 9:22:47 GMT -5
David Ortiz, last July 28 to this June 10, 277 times making contact, 2 HR that would have been out in 29 or 30 MLB parks.
Since June 11, 56 times making contact, 5 such homers. From .007 to .089, an improvement of 1137%.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 1, 2015 9:26:09 GMT -5
David Ortiz, last July 28 to this June 10, 277 times making contact, 2 HR that would have been out in 29 or 30 MLB parks. Since June 11, 56 times making contact, 5 such homers. From .007 to .089, an improvement of 1137%. Great to see. We could really use the old 140-160 wRC+ Ortiz from here on out.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 1, 2015 9:38:42 GMT -5
Marrero at 2B for Holt is disappointing as hell. You're just giving Toronto two outs at the bottom of the order. @mlblineups: 7/1 redsox lineup vs TOR Betts CF Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Ramirez LF Sandoval 3B Napoli 1B De Aza RF Marrero 2B Leon C Porcello P If by two outs you mean De Aza and Leon, then I agree (I would prefered Holt inn RF instead) but Marrero has been pretty good against LHP in the minors: In 2014, he has a .287/.384/.419 with a 21/30 BB/K in 136 ABs.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 1, 2015 9:39:34 GMT -5
They may just want to give Holt a day off. He's played every day this month outside of the 1st and the 22nd, which I'm going to guess were off days without looking it up. Nothing slows up quarter close work like day baseball. Agree on Holt. Good day to rest him against the lefty. Good Luck to Marrero, be ready to swing young man.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 1, 2015 9:44:45 GMT -5
Marrero at 2B for Holt is disappointing as hell. You're just giving Toronto two outs at the bottom of the order. Completely disagree. Holt is 4 for his last 32 with 0 XBH's, and has started 24 games in a row. Putting in a RHH vs. a LHP, who also happens to be a stronger defender than Holt, is just fine with me.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 1, 2015 9:45:27 GMT -5
EDIT: If these Fangraphs stats work the way I think they do, then the negative factors in his case are wSB (-0.6 - he's been thrown out twice on three steal attempts) and GIDP (-0.9 ... not sure how much I agree with that being a baserunning stat, but it's their rodeo, not mine). Not sure how the "Ultimate Baserunning" component is derived, but that part likes him (+0.7)- just not enough to cancel out the other two components. -0.8 overall - a bit less than a run below average. Yes, it looks like you're correct. wGDP... well, it's part how well you hit the ball and part how fast you run to first base. I guess I also would tend to put it more in the batting than in the baserunning category. Maybe they just didn't want to mess with wRC+/wRAA because it's a pretty widely cited stat.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 1, 2015 9:52:05 GMT -5
Holt has been cold lately but I still take my chances with him (Season .805 OPS) over De Aza (Season .385 OPS) against a LHP.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 1, 2015 10:13:38 GMT -5
David Ortiz, last July 28 to this June 10, 277 times making contact, 2 HR that would have been out in 29 or 30 MLB parks. Since June 11, 56 times making contact, 5 such homers. From .007 to .089, an improvement of 1137%. Great to see. We could really use the old 140-160 wRC+ Ortiz from here on out. We have a 149 wRC+ David Ortiz against RHP. We also have a -40 wRC+ David Ortiz against LHP. He really needs to figure out why he has been so bad against lefties this year, it's not something he has struggled with the last couple of years.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 1, 2015 10:30:18 GMT -5
Ericvan, I always take your analysis seriously, but I disagree about the value of sending Swihart to AAA.
As a side note, the base running metrics on him clearly are screwed up. He is a good base runner and certainly faster than almost any catcher. That he got caught stealing a couple of times may have been on botched hit and run plays. I don't know. But anyone paying attention when he has been on base knows the metrics are wrong.
In any case, he is a very smart kid who has shown an ability to adjust and learn quickly. He will learn more in the majors than he will at AAA - especially with Hanigan back on the team. He also will be working with the right pitchers, for the most part. With the new strike zone, and the way many of the umpires are calling balls and strikes, pitch framing may be less important. In any case, the problems of the pitching staff can't be blamed on poor pitch framing.
BABIP always is going to be up and down. However, we don't know yet what kind of a hitter he is going to be. I'm willing to bet he'll be well above average. What I find interesting about his upsurge in hitting is that it has been relatively consistent, a little above an average of a hit a game, instead of a few games with a lot of hits.
Maybe the Sox can claw their way back into contention. I hope they do, but if they don't it's not going to be because of Swihart. If anything, his hitting will increase their chances.
So I think both in the short term, and in the longer term, the team is better served, as is Swihart, by keeping him playing with the big club.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 1, 2015 10:43:16 GMT -5
In any case, he is a very smart kid who has shown an ability to adjust and learn quickly. He will learn more in the majors than he will at AAA - especially with Hanigan back on the team. He also will be working with the right pitchers, for the most part. With the new strike zone, and the way many of the umpires are calling balls and strikes, pitch framing may be less important. In any case, the problems of the pitching staff can't be blamed on poor pitch framing. I'm pretty sure that the current emphasis on pitch framing is at least partially the cause of the expanded strike zone. As far as sending Swihart down goes, it's a little surprising to me and Leon is just awful, but it's hard for me to get too worked up about it. He'll be back up in September at the very latest, so we're talking about two months in AAA at most. Even if it's not the best thing for his development, an extra couple of months in the minors isn't going to make or break his career.
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