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All-Star Game Representation
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 8, 2015 21:24:21 GMT -5
no one has brought up this problem: Normally, the manager could bat a couple Royals at the bottom of the order and remove them in the 4th inning. But with Yost as manager, expect the Royals to get a big role.
Would not surprise me if Holt is the last guy on the bench and does not play if the game is close ... save him for extra innings.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2015 22:09:14 GMT -5
Pitching is much tougher to rate. How much weight do you give to results (90% bWAR, 10% WPA because bWAR makes no adjustment for the diminishing harm caused by the last runs given up in an awful start, and WPA does), versus xFIP- or SIERA?
Well, over the last five years, xFIP- and SIERA both explain 39% of WPA for starting pitching. So we'll rate the starting pitchers based on 55% WAR, 6% WPA, 19.5% xFIP-, and 19.5% SIERA.
That actually seems to work great -- much better than when I rounded it off to 40%!
The score here is just the nmber of standard deviations above average for the four metrics, weighted as above.
AL Starters (* = Selection)
Name WAR WPA SIERA xFIP- Score *Dallas Keuchel 4.6 3.25 2.75 69 2.51 *Chris Sale 3.3 2.10 2.25 60 2.15 *Chris Archer 3.6 1.95 2.52 64 2.14 *Sonny Gray 3.9 2.18 3.30 85 1.79 *Fel. Hernandez 2.7 1.90 3.09 78 1.40 Corey Kluber 2.1 0.51 2.61 67 1.35 Clay Buchholz 2.4 1.37 3.17 81 1.18 *David Price 2.6 1.79 3.39 87 1.15 You have to have 8 SP on an All-Star roster. If you figure each team has four starting pitchers who are regulars, and the top two players at any position are All-Stars, that's eight. Anything less than that is grossly unfair.
The six AL starters are all worthy. Gallardo, who by WAR appears to be a snub, has a 1.02 xFIP- and 4.14 SIERA and no career difference between those metrics and his ERA at all. He's been lucky.
Now, raise your hand if you would rather see Brad Boxberger and Kelvin Herrera in the All-Star Game than Corey Kluber and Clay Buchholz.
Really, that makes me want to puke. (I may do the relievers later, but those two are easily the weak ones in the AL pen.)
NL Starters
Name WAR WPA SIERA xFIP- Score *Max Scherzer 4.4 1.91 2.50 76 2.35 *Zack Greinke 4.8 3.56 3.29 87 2.23 *A.J. Burnett 3.5 2.72 3.38 86 1.60 Cole Hamels 3.5 1.08 3.22 85 1.58 Johnny Cueto 2.9 1.95 3.06 83 1.44 *Gerrit Cole 2.6 1.39 2.90 76 1.41 Clayton Kershaw 1.7 0.77 2.29 57 1.41 *Jacob deGrom 2.8 1.72 3.12 82 1.38 Jake Arrieta 2.4 1.33 2.90 74 1.35 Franci. Liriano 2.3 0.92 2.95 75 1.25 *Shelby Miller 3.5 0.95 3.81 98 1.23 Carlos Martinez 2.4 1.46 3.36 84 1.09 Jaime Garcia 1.7 1.04 2.73 78 1.03 Jason Hammel 1.9 0.66 3.03 84 0.93 Matt Harvey 2.1 0.83 3.26 88 0.91 *Michael Wacha 2.4 1.67 3.65 93 0.90 Lance Lynn 2.1 1.14 3.44 91 0.83 Brett Anderson 1.8 0.60 3.15 88 0.80 *Mad. Bumgarner 1.4 0.82 3.08 83 0.72 The joker in this deck is that Miller and Wacha have, in their young careers, much better ERA- than xFIP- and SIERA. They are worthy of consideration, at least.
Based on the metric, Scherzer, Greinke, Burnett and Hamels are musts, which means Hamels is a fairly egregious snub. Miller, given his WAR, is a must as well. That leaves Cueto, Cole, Kershaw, DeGrom, Arrieta, and Wacha for three spots. And Kershaw and Cueto are easy choices given what they did last year; Cueto, in particular, is another egregious snub given that he's 5th here. Wacha can be eliminated because all the other three guys have a WAR at least as good.
Picking one of Cole, deGrom, and Arrieta is not something worth getting worked up about or devoting serious thought to. I do think that picking two of them plus Wacha while leaving off Hamels and Cueto is not remotely defensible.
And that brings us to Bumgarner over Kershaw, which seems driven largely by their respective 2014 post-seasons -- and, for Kershaw, ignorance (willful or otherwise) of the fact that his deep metrics remain amazing, his results are still good, and that the difference between them is more or less luck.
Bumgarner wasn't an All-Star pitcher last year -- 12th in bWAR in the NL - and he's even further removed this year. He's just a real good pitcher who happened to come up huge last year -- something which has no predictive power at all, and which therefore does not appear to be related to skill or psychology. I know that there are fans who will want to see him. But I actually think the "merely very good pitcher who came up immense when it counted" story is more interesting than the "OMG, he's awesome" story that we've had from the media instead. It also has the small advantage of being true.
Short version:
Cueto, Hamels, Kershaw, Kluber, and Buchholz snubbed.
Boxberger, Herrera, Bumgarner, and Wacha undeserving.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2015 23:07:28 GMT -5
Looks like Gordon will be missing the All Star game. Not sure if the replacement necessarily needs to be an OF or if the player finishing second in the 5 man voting will get the slot. At this point it would be Moustakus and Dozier. Would love for it to be Betts but imagine it probably falls to Cespedes or Gardner who actually made the 5 man Final Vote list.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 8, 2015 23:47:59 GMT -5
Looks like Gordon will be missing the All Star game. Not sure if the replacement necessarily needs to be an OF or if the player finishing second in the 5 man voting will get the slot. At this point it would be Moustakus and Dozier. Would love for it to be Betts but imagine it probably falls to Cespedes or Gardner who actually made the 5 man Final Vote list. a. The manager can do what he wants, but, lately, they usually take the next OF on the player voting results. b. They need 6 outfielders and will wait for the final man vote to see if they are still short at 5 or if Gardner/Cespedes makes 6. c. He could move DH Cruz to starting OF and use Fielder as the starting DH. But unlikely. d. Holt could be the 6th OF, but unlikely. I would expect Gardner. Though I haven't seen the final player vote results.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 8, 2015 23:51:59 GMT -5
Picking one of Cole, deGrom, and Arrieta is not something worth getting worked up about or devoting serious thought to. I do think that picking two of them plus Wacha while leaving off Hamels and Cueto is not remotely defensible.
deGrom is the Mets' sole player, so he's an automatic. Could only be replaced by another Met.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 9, 2015 18:48:13 GMT -5
Gardiner in for Gordon....
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 10, 2015 0:50:30 GMT -5
Buchholz had a deceptively good first half. 5th in FIP, 18th in xFIP, 8th in fWAR, 21st in bWAR.
Take out his one abysmal start vs. the Yankees, and his ERA is 2.61.
I wish there was a way to pull out a starters bottom start or two and see the effects throughout the leaderboards. Outside of doing this manually. Not sure it would show anything, would just be interesting to see who's numbers have been effected by one or two disastrous starts
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2015 2:10:02 GMT -5
Picking one of Cole, deGrom, and Arrieta is not something worth getting worked up about or devoting serious thought to. I do think that picking two of them plus Wacha while leaving off Hamels and Cueto is not remotely defensible.
deGrom is the Mets' sole player, so he's an automatic. Could only be replaced by another Met.
Thanks for doing that work! And looking at those numbers again, I'll take Cole over Miller. If you take the chosen team, Hamels matches or bests Miller on every metric, Cueto bests Wacha across the board, and Kershaw essentially matches Bumgarner in WPA, bests him in WAR and crushes him in xFIP- / SIERA.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 10, 2015 6:17:06 GMT -5
Buchholz had a deceptively good first half. 5th in FIP, 18th in xFIP, 8th in fWAR, 21st in bWAR. Take out his one abysmal start vs. the Yankees, and his ERA is 2.61. I wish there was a way to pull out a starters bottom start or two and see the effects throughout the leaderboards. Outside of doing this manually. Not sure it would show anything, would just be interesting to see who's numbers have been effected by one or two disastrous starts Buccholz was deserving of being an all-star, but I want him rested and not pitching in exhibition games. He will be critical if the Red Sox want to consider at least making a run at the division. Also, his trade value would never be higher...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2015 9:41:31 GMT -5
Looking at the bullpens ...
In the AL there have been 5 guys head and shoulders above the rest. The players picked Wade Davis, Glen Perkins, and Delin Betances, and Yost correctly added Zach Britton.
Back among the starters, Yost has quite correctly added Felix Hernandez, so he's up to 10 pitchers for a staff of 13. He needs three more.
I already opined that Corey Kluber and Clay Buchholz had to be two of those guys. And he furthermore has a 5th dominant reliever in Andrew Miller. So there's your staff.
Instead, he picks Darren O'Day, Kelvin Herrera, and Brad Boxberger.
Boxberger may be the worst All-Star manager selection in history. He's been below average in WPA and REW (which takes each PA and measures its impact on runs rather than wins). Looking at raw stuff, he has an 88 xFIP-, which puts him something like 32nd among AL relievers. I really don't want to know what Yost was thinking here.
Herrera's having a good year. He's been a little less good than Tazawa. Does anyone think Tazawa is having an All-Star season?
If you did want a 6th reliever, O'Day would be in the discussion, along with Carson Smith, Will Harris, David Robertson, Mark Lowe, and Shawn Tolleson. I think I would have gone with Robertson, and would probably take him now to replace Buchholz, but I wouldn't have taken him or anyone else of this group over Kluber or Buchholz initially. (Kluber is pitching today, along with Sonny Gray, so there may be room for one or two more late additions: which should of course by Mookie Betts and/or Xander Bogaerts.)
In the NL, the players named two of the three obvious choices, Trevor Rosenthal and Mark Melancon, and added Aroldis Chapman, one of about 8 legitimate but not obvious contenders. No problem with their choice, though.
Francisco Rodriguez ranks 5th in the league in my quick scoring system (40% WAR, 32% WPA, 14% each for xFIP- and SIERA), and given his history, is the obvious choice to be the Brewers' sole representative.
For his last bullpen guy, he tabbed Jonathan Papelbon, as the Phillies' sole rep, over Jeurys Familia. Papelbon's not an awful choice, as he's 12th in the league in my system and has often been a legitimate All-Star. But Bochy had a better Phillies choice among the starters in Hamels. I'm with those who think Familia was a significant snub; he's second to Davis in all of MLB in my system.
Bochy was further hamstrung by the players picking three borderline SP candidates in Shelby Miller, DeGrom, and Cole over Burnett, Hamels, Cueto, and Kershaw. I'd want all four of those guys on my team along with Familia, and because I need to add K-Rod, I've got only four spots left.
What I would have done (what should have been by an objective observer, I might argue) was look at who was going to be pitching on Sunday. Well, that's Scherzer (correctly named by the players) and Cueto. So you can add Burnett, Hamels, Cueto, and Familia, and then replace Cueto with Kershaw.
Instead, Bochy added Burnett (great choice), Wacha, Bumgarner, and Papelbon.
Manger's pitching choices summary:
AL:
Brad Boxberger over Andrew Miller: mind-bogglingly indefensible. Kelvin Herrea over Clay Buchholz: indefensible. Darren O'Day over Corey Kluber. Marginally defensible but still pretty obviously wrong.
NL:
Jonathan Papelbon / Michael Wacha over Cole Hamels / Jeurys Familia: Not bad choices like Yost's first two, but the latter pair is really, obviously better. Hamels clobbers Wacha in every metric you can look at it and has the history, too. Familia clobbers Papelbon in every metric, even more severely.
Madison Bumgarner over Johhny Cueto (and Clayton Kershaw, too): indefensible my-guy-ism.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2015 10:18:16 GMT -5
I don't know if it was mentioned earlier, but I heard during the TV cast last night that this is first All Star game ever when neither the Yankees or the Red Sox had a starting player.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2015 11:59:12 GMT -5
all-star notes:
1. each league is REQUIRED by rule to have at least 13 pitchers in uniform for the game. So Gray will be replaced by another pitcher. 2. due to injury, AL is down to 5 OFs. So Holt looks like he gets into the game as the 6th outfielder. (Although it is conceivable that Nelson Cruz could move from DH to RF in the starting lineup, bringing them back to 6 OF.) 3. both Marlins are injured and out. So Miami is down to ZERO players. 4. Holliday will not play. NL is also down to 5 OFs. Holliday hasn't been replaced yet.
5. NL has TWO LHB in starting lineup. Although, the DH is likely to be a 3rd LHB. 6. THREE of the 11 reserves are LHB, and one bats both. 7. THREE of the 14 NL pitchers are LHP.
8. AL has ZERO LHB in starting lineup. 9. SIX of the 12 AL reserves are LHB, and one bats both. 10. SIX of the 13 AL pitchers are LHP.
11. Gray & Scherzer are the only starters pitching today and will have to be replaced. Cueto & Kluber are not eligible, as they are pitching today.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2015 13:06:53 GMT -5
all-star notes: 1. each league is REQUIRED by rule to have at least 13 pitchers in uniform for the game. So Gray will be replaced by another pitcher. Had better be Andrew Miller. Nobody else comes close in terms of being overlooked. Bochy has a lot more viable options to replace Scherzer: Hamels, Familia, Kershaw, Arrieta.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 12, 2015 13:23:48 GMT -5
all-star notes: 1. each league is REQUIRED by rule to have at least 13 pitchers in uniform for the game. So Gray will be replaced by another pitcher. Had better be Andrew Miller. Nobody else comes close in terms of being overlooked. Bochy has a lot more viable options to replace Scherzer: Hamels, Familia, Kershaw, Arrieta. It's Hector Santiago.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2015 13:40:16 GMT -5
all-star notes: 1. each league is REQUIRED by rule to have at least 13 pitchers in uniform for the game. So Gray will be replaced by another pitcher. Had better be Andrew Miller. Nobody else comes close in terms of being overlooked. Bochy has a lot more viable options to replace Scherzer: Hamels, Familia, Kershaw, Arrieta. Carlos Martinez RHP won the final vote and he is the 14th pitcher. So, Scherzer can be replaced by any player at any position. Wouldn't surprise me to see Scherzer replaced by teammate Jordan Zimmermann or Storen.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2015 13:55:43 GMT -5
Had better be Andrew Miller. Nobody else comes close in terms of being overlooked. Bochy has a lot more viable options to replace Scherzer: Hamels, Familia, Kershaw, Arrieta. It's Hector Santiago. Santiago doesn't fit the profile of all-star. Career record of 20-23.
But it gives the AL an arm that can go the 3 innings in an extra inning game and a lefty. Santiago pitched on Friday. 106 pitches.
Other alternatives were Buehrle, who threw 85 pitches on Saturday. Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore, who threw 110 pitches on Wednesday.
Boxberger was selected because of the save stat, combined with last year's dominant OPSA of .538 He has reverse splits. I don't know how useful that is in an all-star game, but TB was around 1st place at the time of selection and Yost wanted a 2nd TB player.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2015 14:48:44 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2015 15:53:42 GMT -5
Had better be Andrew Miller. Nobody else comes close in terms of being overlooked. Bochy has a lot more viable options to replace Scherzer: Hamels, Familia, Kershaw, Arrieta. It's Hector Santiago. He's the 19th best SP in the AL according to my little combo metric. But 9th in WAR, and 2nd in WAR among eligible replacements (after Kyle Gibson; Gallardo is pitching today). And his xFIP- and SIERA have always been awful compared to his ERA-, so he probably is the best eligible SP not on the roster. One question is why Yost shafted the league's SP over the honor of being an AS when it was inevitable that he'd lose some to the Sunday rule and maybe an injury. As it turned out, had he named Kluber and Buchholz who were pretty clearly deserving, he would have ended up getting to add three relievers if he wanted to. In terms of the staff he ended up with, the one big missing improvement remains Miller instead of Boxberger. Robertson instead of O'Day is more like a tweak you can argue for.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2015 20:04:31 GMT -5
1. Yost doesn't really know what he is doing. which explains his selection of pitchers and shafting of SPs. Probably has spent less time on this than Eric. 2. AL OF Gordon injured, I predict an AL starting OF of Trout CF Cain RF Gardner LF Or, as mentioned previously, Cruz could move from DH to RF, with Fielder as DH.
EDIT: the press is reporting Jones to start Trout CF Cain RF Adam Jones LF
2.b. AL starting lineup will be 9 RHB. NL will have 2 LHB. Three, if the DH is Rizzo or AGon.
3. The NL starting OF looks like Harper LF McCutcheon CF Pederson RF
EDIT: This is an obvious error. Harper's natural position is RF, which puts Pederson in LF, which he played plenty in the minors. 4. NL DH: Arenado looks like a better defensive 3B than Bryant. So I have the 2 NL DHs as Bryant and either Rizzo or AGonzalez.
5. I would have replaced Scherzer with Joey Votto, leaving the usual 13 pitchers. Allows Votto to be a DH for the hometown Cincinnati crowd.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 13, 2015 17:51:53 GMT -5
American League CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels 3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays 1B Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels DH Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners RF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals LF Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles C Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros SS Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals LHP Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
CF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates 3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds RF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks C Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants DH Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs SS Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals LF Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers 2B DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies RHP Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/mlb-all-star-starting-lineups--cincinnati-155226693.html
AL comments: 9 RHB. The 3 weak hitters are at the bottom of the lineup where they belong. Maybe they will only get 1 AB each. Perhaps the 2 KC relievers will pitch early so they can throw to their own KC catcher.
Holt will play LF late, unless Trout plays the whole game. NL comments: Greinke will throw to the SF catcher, instead of his own LA catcher later in the game. Expect LHP Bumgarner around the 5th to throw to Posey and maybe face some lefties off the bench.
The NL lefties are batting #3, #6, #8. Harper faces Keuchel (.341 OPSA vs. LHB). Might have avoided it if Harper hit 4th. Rizzo has favorable splits vs. LHP. Better than A-Gon, who might end up facing the AL lefty relievers late.
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