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Roster construction for 2016
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 11, 2015 7:24:09 GMT -5
There are some horrible rumors out there to the effect that the Red Sox will make a run at Chris Davis this offseason. You mean THAT Chris Davis, with 30 home runs so far with a month and a half to go? Nah, where would we play him?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2015 8:02:33 GMT -5
There are some horrible rumors out there to the effect that the Red Sox will make a run at Chris Davis this offseason. You mean THAT Chris Davis, with 30 home runs so far with a month and a half to go? Nah, where would we play him? We'd probably get the 2014 version.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 11, 2015 8:13:57 GMT -5
You mean THAT Chris Davis, with 30 home runs so far with a month and a half to go? Nah, where would we play him? We'd probably get the 2014 version. .....or, maybe the 2013 version, or the 2012 version?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2015 8:23:17 GMT -5
I don't think he would be nearly as good in Fenway.
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Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2015 8:31:25 GMT -5
I don't think he would be nearly as good in Fenway. I actually think he'd be a pretty good fit for Fenway. He hits a lot of fly balls, many of them to the opposite field, and he also has enough pull power that he wouldn't be effected much by the deeper RF. Check out his spray chart and peep all those gray dots towards LF.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2015 8:39:10 GMT -5
I looked at the spray charts before I posted. If you look at 3 years, it looks a lot better than if you look at each individual year because there are just so many dots you can't get a hold of how many there are. 6 of his 30 home runs are to left this year. He hit 5 in 2014. In 2013, he hit a ton, but he's probably not that hitter now.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 11, 2015 9:05:34 GMT -5
I looked at the spray charts before I posted. If you look at 3 years, it looks a lot better than if you look at each individual year because there are just so many dots you can't get a hold of how many there are. 6 of his 30 home runs are to left this year. He hit 5 in 2014. In 2013, he hit a ton, but he's probably not that hitter now. Probably a lot of flyballs to left in Baltimore that would be off the monster or sneak into that first row though. I'm not sure I like the idea of signing him, but I don't think he'd be a disaster by any means
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 11, 2015 9:34:44 GMT -5
Yet, replacing Nap's power is essetial if the Sox are to relly on the core of Vasquez/Swihart/Hanigan, Pedey, XB, Betts, Bradley, Castillo, Holt. XB and Castillo may develop real power in 2016, and most positions 1-9 will hit 10-15 HR, but another true Basher ladded to Papi and Hanley would restore Run and Win potential. Whether 1B or 3B doesn't matter.other than defensive skills.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2015 11:32:20 GMT -5
I looked at the spray charts before I posted. If you look at 3 years, it looks a lot better than if you look at each individual year because there are just so many dots you can't get a hold of how many there are. 6 of his 30 home runs are to left this year. He hit 5 in 2014. In 2013, he hit a ton, but he's probably not that hitter now. Probably a lot of flyballs to left in Baltimore that would be off the monster or sneak into that first row though. I'm not sure I like the idea of signing him, but I don't think he'd be a disaster by any means And it's pretty obvious that there would be a lot more home runs to right in Baltimore that would turn into outs in Fenway. I don't have much interest in a long term deal for him.
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Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2015 11:51:32 GMT -5
Probably a lot of flyballs to left in Baltimore that would be off the monster or sneak into that first row though. I'm not sure I like the idea of signing him, but I don't think he'd be a disaster by any means And it's pretty obvious that there would be a lot more home runs to right in Baltimore that would turn into outs in Fenway. I don't have much interest in a long term deal for him. Eh, I don't know that that's true. Look at his Hit Tracker "true" home run landing spots, then add Fenway's overlay. He maybe loses two or three home runs to RF, but the rest of his HRs to the right-field power alleys seem like they would well clear the bullpen at Fenway. You can do so for past years with similar results. Davis doesn't hit many cheapies. (Of course, this is not the best methodology in the world, but it works well enough with Fenway's RF because that fence is so small. It works less well with the Monster in LF, and with Davis, there's a good chance some of those LF home runs turn into wall-ball doubles or even line drive singles.)
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2015 11:53:55 GMT -5
I'm on the record. We can revisit in a year. That 2014 season does not bode well for how he's going to age.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 11, 2015 12:43:31 GMT -5
I haven't looked at whatever major league-ready minor league first base prospects might be acquired, but among major league 1Bs, Chris Davis is about the only really good option. And by that I mean that if the Sox are going to have a power-hitting first baseman in the general quality of Napoli 2013, which really is what the team needs, there aren't any other obvious choices, and I include Hanley among them.
Using fangraphs ratings, Davis has a WAR if 3.0 and only Goldschmidt, Votto, Rizzo, Gonzalez and Teixeira are higher. None of those is a candidate for acquisition.
Immediately below Davis are Belt, Hosmer, Duda, Abreu, Pujols and Moreland. Except for Belt and Moreland, according to fangraphs' ratings, the rest are crappy defenders, considerably worse than Davis, who surprisingly to me, comes out as one of the best defenders among all 1Bs. He is fourth best among all 1Bs and second only to Belt among the ones worth having.
He's going to be 30 next year so he still is in his "prime years," but at the back end of them. He ought to have two or three years of premium production and, barring serious injury, some decent ones after that.
It would mean keeping Hanley in LF for another year, unless he were traded, which is my preference. I am not optimistic that he will be a good 1B. I've even become somewhat skeptical of his offensive value.
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Post by abrax12 on Aug 11, 2015 13:08:20 GMT -5
My ideal situation (Based on Realistic Options):
Lineup: 1.) LF Mookie Betts 2.) 2B Dustin Pedroia 3.) SS Xander Bogaerts 4.) DH David Ortiz 5.) 1B Hanley Ramirez 6.) 3B Brock Holt (interchangable with Betts, depending on who's hot and who's not, just too similar to top 3 to have them all up there) 7.) RF Rusney Castillo 8.) C Blake Swihart 9.) CF Jackie Bradley Jr
Bench: C Christian Vasquez/Ryan Hanigan 1B/3B Travis Shaw 1B/OF Allen Craig IF Deven Marrero
Analysis: I would eat part of the salary and throw in a mid level prospect to dump Sandoval. I believe in JBJ in center field and because of his all-world defense would bump Mookie to left. I'm in on the Hanley at first base experiment and like the young, very athletic outfield. The lineup pretty much is the current one (Holt could be higher, but it's hard to part so many contact hitters there) with the idea that certain people will simply hit better. Defensively the only issue is Hanley but he's much limited in making errors at first next to Pedroia. The bench isn't great but with much versatility in the outfield and with Holt it doesn't need to be.
Starting Rotation: 1.) Free Agent/Trade 2.) Clay Buchholz 3.) Eduardo Rodriquez 4.) Rick Porcello 5.) Wade Miley
6th Man: Henry Owens (AAA), Brian Johnson (AAA), Steven Wright
Bullpen: CL: Koji Uehara SU: Junichi Tazawa RH: Steven Wright RH: Alexi Ogando LH: Tommy Layne LH Free Agent/Trade LH Free Agent/Trade
Analysis: You need a top of the rotation guy. Plan and simple. Zack Grienke will be very expensive as would David Price. Zimmerman looks like a bad candidate for a huge contract. So if you can't afford the former two, then maybe a Johnny Cueto. Other options are trading for a young, controllable starter, which if you do not have to empty the farm, is the best idea. Buchholz is a basket case but ti would be too difficult to replace him right now and if he gets hurt again it opens up a spot for one of the young guys. You're stuck with Porcello but I believe he will bounce back. Beyond a terrible April (8.62 ERA), Miley has been better since with roughly a 4.20 ERA (was under 4 until a rough stretch recently where opponnents are getting to him the third time around) and will do as the 5th starter. The bullpen needs major work, probably the most in the offseason. The pen is the worst part of the team.
My untouchable prospects: Yoan Moncada Rafael Devers Anderson Espinoza Either Manuel Margot OR Andrew Benintendi
Overall we are actually very limited in what we can do, so developing youth and hoping for bounce backs are the best option. Do not sell the future to fix the present.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 11, 2015 16:27:37 GMT -5
Things I'm in favor of
Trading Swihart +/- for a controllable starting pitcher +/-. Carrasco, Salazar, Quintana as examples. But I would not include Owens or Johnson unless it was a Sale type
Signing a top tier SP to a (slightly less than ridiculous) contract and dealing with the downside on the back end
Making significant investments in the bullpen by all avenues, free agents, trades, and internally
Moving Kelly to the bullpen
Trying Hanley at first
Going into 2016 with relatively the same position players
Trading Buchholz, if I get back a good back of bullpen reliever and some close to majors pitching depth
Finding a role for Shaw (probably up and down utility)
Things I'm not in favor of
Trading players: Because their value is low compared to potential: Kelly, Bradley Because it would require us to take on too much money with little upside back: Porcello, Sandoval, Hanley Because they are prospects who could help in 2016: Owens, Johnson, Light Because they are studs: Devers, Espinoza
For the rotation, I think you give 2 spots to 2 of E-Rod, Owens, Wright, and Johnson. I guess that reads as Owens, Wright, or Johnson compete for a rotation spot. Upgrading 1 or both of Buch and Miley, by FA, trade, or one of each. Porcello I think you just have to wait out.
For the bullpen I like the potential of Kelly and Light adding to Tazawa and Uehara. I'd be aggressive in adding multiple pieces and trying to make the bullpen the strength of the team.
I don't see much you could do with the position players without being creative, which I'm certainly not opposed to. But until those opportunities present themselves I'd focus on pitchers (of beer).
Note* things I'm in favor of are not dependent on completing the others, and are based off the current perceived situations. If those factors change so do my thoughts.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 11, 2015 20:38:27 GMT -5
Things I'm in favor ofTrading Swihart +/- for a controllable starting pitcher +/-. Carrasco, Salazar, Quintana as examples. But I would not include Owens or Johnson unless it was a Sale type Signing a top tier SP to a (slightly less than ridiculous) contract and dealing with the downside on the back end Making significant investments in the bullpen by all avenues, free agents, trades, and internally Moving Kelly to the bullpen Trying Hanley at first Going into 2016 with relatively the same position players Trading Buchholz, if I get back a good back of bullpen reliever and some close to majors pitching depth Finding a role for Shaw (probably up and down utility) Things I'm not in favor ofTrading players: Because their value is low compared to potential: Kelly, Bradley Because it would require us to take on too much money with little upside back: Porcello, Sandoval, Hanley Because they are prospects who could help in 2016: Owens, Johnson, Light Because they are studs: Devers, Espinoza For the rotation, I think you give 2 spots to 2 of E-Rod, Owens, Wright, and Johnson. I guess that reads as Owens, Wright, or Johnson compete for a rotation spot. Upgrading 1 or both of Buch and Miley, by FA, trade, or one of each. Porcello I think you just have to wait out. For the bullpen I like the potential of Kelly and Light adding to Tazawa and Uehara. I'd be aggressive in adding multiple pieces and trying to make the bullpen the strength of the team. I don't see much you could do with the position players without being creative, which I'm certainly not opposed to. But until those opportunities present themselves I'd focus on pitchers (of beer). Note* things I'm in favor of are not dependent on completing the others, and are based off the current perceived situations. If those factors change so do my thoughts.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Aug 12, 2015 1:22:25 GMT -5
What's everyone's thoughts about Felix Hernandez or Chris Archer as potential trade targets? The Mariners and Rays maybe in rebuild mode at the rate they're going.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2015 2:07:08 GMT -5
What's everyone's thoughts about Felix Hernandez or Chris Archer as potential trade targets? The Mariners and Rays maybe in rebuild mode at the rate they're going. The boat has sailed on King Felix going anywhere. His average annual salary of $26 million from 2016-2019 with a Lackeyesque 2020 team option is now considered a relatively team-friendly deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2015 7:19:50 GMT -5
It would be great if they could identify at least replacement level relief pitchers for the back of the bullpen. They have used 9 relief pitchers this season that have been below replacement level for a total of -3.3 fWAR. They have used 6 others that are between 0 and 0.1. And then Uehara and Tazawa at 1.3 and 1.2. The bullpen as a whole has been below replacement level.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2015 7:25:28 GMT -5
What's everyone's thoughts about Felix Hernandez or Chris Archer as potential trade targets? The Mariners and Rays maybe in rebuild mode at the rate they're going. Archer would be great, but incredibly expensive.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 12, 2015 7:52:41 GMT -5
Joe Kelly to Bullpen not looking promising at the moment. The article is specifically about being a closer, but sounds like he has a physical or mental block. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/red_sox_no_closer_to_answer"As of today, on Aug. 11, no,” he said. “That’s not even in the back of the my mind.” Why so dismissive? Being a closer didn’t suit him, he said. He remembers his arm hurting all the time in college. He remembers shut-down periods of two or three weeks. He remembers tendinitis and inflammation. “I didn’t really like it too much,” he said. “I liked it but every single year I was going through arm problems just from the amount of outings I was getting. I don’t know if it was because I’m brand new to pitching or if it was that many appearances that were giving me some arm problems. . . . It was something that was always in my head in college.”"
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 12, 2015 8:41:02 GMT -5
Joe Kelly to Bullpen not looking promising at the moment. The article is specifically about being a closer, but sounds like he has a physical or mental block. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/red_sox_no_closer_to_answer"As of today, on Aug. 11, no,” he said. “That’s not even in the back of the my mind.” Why so dismissive? Being a closer didn’t suit him, he said. He remembers his arm hurting all the time in college. He remembers shut-down periods of two or three weeks. He remembers tendinitis and inflammation. “I didn’t really like it too much,” he said. “I liked it but every single year I was going through arm problems just from the amount of outings I was getting. I don’t know if it was because I’m brand new to pitching or if it was that many appearances that were giving me some arm problems. . . . It was something that was always in my head in college.”" Eh, being a college closer isn't quite the same as being a pro closer. Here are his college game-by-games: www.gohighlanders.com/custompages/Baseball/2007/PLYR0015.HTMwww.gohighlanders.com/custompages/Baseball/2008/PLYR_17.HTMwww.gohighlanders.com/custompages/Baseball/2009/plyr_17.htmIf you look at his junior year, he was shut down after going 2 or more innings in 3 of his 5 appearances. As a sophomore, he was apparently shut down after one appearance. His freshman year, the only "shutdown" period I can see is after he went 3.1 innings. (Folks should definitely let me know if I missed something.) If you go to him and ask if he'd rather start in Triple-A or be a reliever in the majors, you bet he's going to pick the latter.
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Post by jdb on Aug 12, 2015 8:50:42 GMT -5
I was going to say. He isn't going to throw 50 pitches Friday night and be asked to bounce back for a 1pm Saturday game at this level.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 12, 2015 10:51:25 GMT -5
He must not want to reduce his chances of winning the Cy Young by pitching out of the bullpen.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 13, 2015 13:54:44 GMT -5
Stealing this one from Macpherson but Brandon Belt would be an interesting 1B option next year. 1 year of team control left, and Posey is getting some reps at 1B to stay fresh. Miley probably wouldn't get it done, but Buchholz for Belt might be a a fair trade.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 13, 2015 14:00:39 GMT -5
Stealing this one from Macpherson but Brandon Belt would be an interesting 1B option next year. 1 year of team control left, and Posey is getting some reps at 1B to stay fresh. Miley probably wouldn't get it done, but Buchholz for Belt might be a a fair trade. Belt has two years of team control remaining.
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