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Poll: Who Should Be in Next Year's Rotation? VOTE FOR FIVE!
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 29, 2015 15:34:59 GMT -5
Quoting from another thread... Not to get too sidetracked, but the Sale question makes me actually think of two damn good young pitchers who could be available for the right package. Both guys will be entering their first arb eligible season in 2016 and both are represented by Scott Boras. Jose Fernandez & Matt Harvey. I don't think Margot, Owens and Guerra quite gets either one, but I do believe that with each players contract status and team situations: Mets want to compete and have an amazing rotation but no offense. Loria's disdain for spending money. Both may be attainable and that those three could be used. I just don't have a sense as to what else would need to be offered. Rusney? Devers? Please feel free to move elsewhere if this is too off the scope of the thread. I gotta say Jose Fernandez would be my favourite potential trade target. I love the enthusiasm he has for the game and his stuff is filthy, he is just fun to watch. And it's less likely the Marlins manage to pull us over the table than Billy Beane does.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2015 16:40:03 GMT -5
Two things.
First, given the current health of Buchholz, Wright, and Johnson and the question of whether Kelly is for real, I'm holding on to all the starters other than Miley. IOW, I'm holding on to Owens and Johnson.
Second, the dilemma right now is this (see the end for the short version):
-- We can get a good young pitcher for Margot, Guerra, Miley, and Marrero, the consensus best trade candidates.
-- We could get a great young pitcher if we included Swihart, but that would be risky given Vazquez's health, and another year of looking at Swihart might make you change your mind over whom to trade.
-- We will, however, be very likely trading one of the catchers next winter.
So what I think I would do is just get the best possible pitcher for the aforementioned, with the plan being to trade Swihart and a starting pitcher (or even two) for a true ace next winter. When, of course, every trade target will be a year closer to free agency, and will have another year of performance that we can evaluate them by, and we will have had another year to evaluate what we've got.
That pitcher you send off in next winter's deal could certainly be the one you get this winter, so in other words, this trade boils down to including Swihart now, but the deal is split into two parts separated by a year.
Except this version has extra flexibility. It allows you to decide that the guy you get this winter is a keeper, and that you'd rather deal someone else comparable (ERod, Owens, etc.) instead.
I think this has to be plan. Yes, we'd love to get a frontline starter now, but if we can get a Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez a year from now, for players who have no role on the MLB team, what sense does it make to sign David Price now? Anyone watching this team now knows we can contend next year if we add a #2 / #3 type to Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Wright, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson. We won't be anyone's favorite, but we'll certainly contend.
And then, with hopefully fewer questions about the health of Buchholz, etc., and with another year of evaluation for ERod, Wright, Owens, Johnson, the new acquisition, and the mysterious Kelly, you will be in a terrific position to trade Swihart and one or even two pitchers to get one of the top two or three trade-value pitchers on the planet. Or, for that matter, for a 1B, if that proves to be the bigger need.
The short version: Patience, grasshopper. The big trade, where Swihart (or Vazquez) and a very good young pitcher are the core of a deal for a young elite pitcher, has to happen next winter. In the meantime, just trade for the best guy you can, to add to the current mix.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 2, 2015 17:20:49 GMT -5
Eric, OK, but why not just get Wright right now? He certainly won't hurt contending and can be added to the followinv winter after yoir evaluation process.
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Post by jdb on Sept 2, 2015 17:23:50 GMT -5
Eric,
What's your take on Tyson Ross? Would you target him as that 2/3 and any chance expand the deal for Kimbrel? I think Dom took so much heat for his bullpen in Detroit he could look going that direction.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 2, 2015 17:51:32 GMT -5
Eric, What's your take on Tyson Ross? Would you target him as that 2/3 and any chance expand the deal for Kimbrel? I think Dom took so much heat for his bullpen in Detroit he could look going that direction. I wonder how much overlap there is between people who don't want to pay Buchholz $13m because he might pitch only 120 innings and people who want to pay Kimbrel $13m to definitely pitch at most 70 innings.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 2, 2015 17:53:41 GMT -5
Two things. First, given the current health of Buchholz, Wright, and Johnson and the question of whether Kelly is for real, I'm holding on to all the starters other than Miley. IOW, I'm holding on to Owens and Johnson. Second, the dilemma right now is this (see the end for the short version): -- We can get a good young pitcher for Margot, Guerra, Miley, and Marrero, the consensus best trade candidates. -- We could get a great young pitcher if we included Swihart, but that would be risky given Vazquez's health, and another year of looking at Swihart might make you change your mind over whom to trade. -- We will, however, be very likely trading one of the catchers next winter. So what I think I would do is just get the best possible pitcher for the aforementioned, with the plan being to trade Swihart and a starting pitcher (or even two) for a true ace next winter. When, of course, every trade target will be a year closer to free agency, and will have another year of performance that we can evaluate them by, and we will have had another year to evaluate what we've got. That pitcher you send off in next winter's deal could certainly be the one you get this winter, so in other words, this trade boils down to including Swihart now, but the deal is split into two parts separated by a year. Except this version has extra flexibility. It allows you to decide that the guy you get this winter is a keeper, and that you'd rather deal someone else comparable (ERod, Owens, etc.) instead. I think this has to be plan. Yes, we'd love to get a frontline starter now, but if we can get a Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez a year from now, for players who have no role on the MLB team, what sense does it make to sign David Price now? Anyone watching this team now knows we can contend next year if we add a #2 / #3 type to Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Wright, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson. We won't be anyone's favorite, but we'll certainly contend. And then, with hopefully fewer questions about the health of Buchholz, etc., and with another year of evaluation for ERod, Wright, Owens, Johnson, the new acquisition, and the mysterious Kelly, you will be in a terrific position to trade Swihart and one or even two pitchers to get one of the top two or three trade-value pitchers on the planet. Or, for that matter, for a 1B, if that proves to be the bigger need. The short version: Patience, grasshopper. The big trade, where Swihart (or Vazquez) and a very good young pitcher are the core of a deal for a young elite pitcher, has to happen next winter. In the meantime, just trade for the best guy you can, to add to the current mix. Too bad BC didn't show a little patience. We'd have plenty of cash to sign David Price and pick up a closer like Kimbrell. This should have been the bridge year. Now, we have extended the bridge another year. If I were to bet, I'd guess the Sox sign a big-name pitcher because of another disasterous season. Especially, if Dombrowski can move Sandoval. We're stuck with Hanley.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 2, 2015 17:57:18 GMT -5
Two things. First, given the current health of Buchholz, Wright, and Johnson and the question of whether Kelly is for real, I'm holding on to all the starters other than Miley. IOW, I'm holding on to Owens and Johnson. Second, the dilemma right now is this (see the end for the short version): -- We can get a good young pitcher for Margot, Guerra, Miley, and Marrero, the consensus best trade candidates. -- We could get a great young pitcher if we included Swihart, but that would be risky given Vazquez's health, and another year of looking at Swihart might make you change your mind over whom to trade. -- We will, however, be very likely trading one of the catchers next winter. So what I think I would do is just get the best possible pitcher for the aforementioned, with the plan being to trade Swihart and a starting pitcher (or even two) for a true ace next winter. When, of course, every trade target will be a year closer to free agency, and will have another year of performance that we can evaluate them by, and we will have had another year to evaluate what we've got. That pitcher you send off in next winter's deal could certainly be the one you get this winter, so in other words, this trade boils down to including Swihart now, but the deal is split into two parts separated by a year. Except this version has extra flexibility. It allows you to decide that the guy you get this winter is a keeper, and that you'd rather deal someone else comparable (ERod, Owens, etc.) instead. I think this has to be plan. Yes, we'd love to get a frontline starter now, but if we can get a Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez a year from now, for players who have no role on the MLB team, what sense does it make to sign David Price now? Anyone watching this team now knows we can contend next year if we add a #2 / #3 type to Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Wright, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson. We won't be anyone's favorite, but we'll certainly contend. And then, with hopefully fewer questions about the health of Buchholz, etc., and with another year of evaluation for ERod, Wright, Owens, Johnson, the new acquisition, and the mysterious Kelly, you will be in a terrific position to trade Swihart and one or even two pitchers to get one of the top two or three trade-value pitchers on the planet. Or, for that matter, for a 1B, if that proves to be the bigger need. The short version: Patience, grasshopper. The big trade, where Swihart (or Vazquez) and a very good young pitcher are the core of a deal for a young elite pitcher, has to happen next winter. In the meantime, just trade for the best guy you can, to add to the current mix. Too bad BC didn't show a little patience. We'd have plenty of cash to sign David Price and pick up a closer like Kimbrell. This should have been the bridge year. Now, we have extended the bridge another year. If I were to bet, I'd guess the Sox sign a big-name pitcher because of another disasterous season. Especially, if Dombrowski can move Sandoval. We're stuck with Hanley. More like too bad BC didn't know how to evaluate talent. With the amount of money and trade chips he had at the deadline last year, this absolutely should've been a competitive team. Unfortunately, he blew it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2015 19:48:20 GMT -5
Eric, What's your take on Tyson Ross? Would you target him as that 2/3 and any chance expand the deal for Kimbrel? I think Dom took so much heat for his bullpen in Detroit he could look going that direction. No interest in Ross at all. Projecting his bWAR based on his last three seasons 3-2-1, he's at 2.4 versus 1.55 for Miley; over the two years before Ross hits free agency, he's a 1.7 WAR upgrade, and that's assuming that his great Petco numbers will carry over, relative to park factor, to Fenway. Which I actually don't think is likely. He also has a very big 3/4 hitters versus 7-9 hitter split (834 OPS vs. 621; Miley is 809. vs. 693), which means he gains more of his value from beating weaker teams and less of it from beating good ones than the average starter. He may be no better than Miley against an elite lineup, in fact. Miley also has a 1-year extension at $12M which he seems somewhat likely to earn.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 9, 2015 19:04:50 GMT -5
Depth Starters: 6. Joe Kelly 7. Brian Johnson 8. Henry Owens I still find Kelly's potential tantalizing and would keep him starting for as long as possible. There are other ways to fill out the bullpen. Kelly to the bullpen or trade. One final note: the starting pitching depth after Wright/Johnson/Owens is pretty nonexistent. After those guys, you have maybe Matt Barnes or Joe Kelly (if they even want to try them as starters) Kelly should be a bullpen arm, too. Kelly should be tried in the bullpen. Sorry, guys, you were right, we should have given up on Joe Kelly as a starter long ago.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 9, 2015 19:11:29 GMT -5
Depth Starters: 6. Joe Kelly 7. Brian Johnson 8. Henry Owens I still find Kelly's potential tantalizing and would keep him starting for as long as possible. There are other ways to fill out the bullpen. Kelly to the bullpen or trade. One final note: the starting pitching depth after Wright/Johnson/Owens is pretty nonexistent. After those guys, you have maybe Matt Barnes or Joe Kelly (if they even want to try them as starters) Kelly should be a bullpen arm, too. Kelly should be tried in the bullpen. Sorry, guys, you were right, we should have given up on Joe Kelly as a starter long ago. It's looking good right now, but let's not pretend it's settled.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 9, 2015 19:16:50 GMT -5
Sorry, guys, you were right, we should have given up on Joe Kelly as a starter long ago. It's looking good right now, but let's not pretend it's settled. I'm sticking to my guns, BTW, Kelly should be the Pawtucket ace to start next season and the first man up. Though my reasoning for that may be shifting somewhat towards "well, he's got an option and Wright doesn't."
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Post by telson13 on Sept 9, 2015 21:08:54 GMT -5
Depth Starters: 6. Joe Kelly 7. Brian Johnson 8. Henry Owens I still find Kelly's potential tantalizing and would keep him starting for as long as possible. There are other ways to fill out the bullpen. Kelly to the bullpen or trade. One final note: the starting pitching depth after Wright/Johnson/Owens is pretty nonexistent. After those guys, you have maybe Matt Barnes or Joe Kelly (if they even want to try them as starters) Kelly should be a bullpen arm, too. Kelly should be tried in the bullpen. Sorry, guys, you were right, we should have given up on Joe Kelly as a starter long ago. Saying "put him in the 'pen" and "giving up on him as a starter" are two entirely different things. He would be more valuable in the bullpen in MLB than in AAA as a sixth starter. So before you start patting yourself on the back, remember that you're the one who said he effectively belonged I the minors. But, hey, self-aggrandizement opportunity.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 9, 2015 21:26:26 GMT -5
Sorry, guys, you were right, we should have given up on Joe Kelly as a starter long ago. Saying "put him in the 'pen" and "giving up on him as a starter" are two entirely different things. He would be more valuable in the bullpen in MLB than in AAA as a sixth starter. So before you start patting yourself on the back, remember that you're the one who said he effectively belonged I the minors. But, hey, self-aggrandizement opportunity. A #6 starter, if he performs adequately, is easily a favourite to pitch more MLB innings than anyone who starts the year in the bullpen.
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Post by jclmontana on Sept 9, 2015 22:12:01 GMT -5
Tonight finally pushed me towards believing in Joe Kelly, at least conditionally. He had an inefficient game tonight, with a high pitch count and did not go very deep, but considering the Blue Jays offense, I am impressed.
I switched my vote; for J Kelly to begin next year as a starter, and upped the ante from trading for a good young starter to acquiring an elite talent. To make room for Kelly, I deselected Buchholz. I think Buchholz is worth his salary next year, but he brings too much uncertainty to the rotation. It is fine to point out that he was a very valuable pitcher for half the year. and that Buchholz + even a meh replacement is worth a lot, especially for 13 m. But I think stability and a little more consistency is needed for a team that has designs on the 2016 post-season. I would rather obtain a very good to elite pitcher, and try to trade Buchholz for fair value. Planning on Buchholz being a half-year pitcher (which is necessary), complicates roster building. Pitchers get hurt, spot starters are needed, and sh** happens no matter who is in the rotation, so why plan around an especially fragile player if there are alternatives?
Cherington's vision of a competent collection of mid-rotation pitchers as a workable foundation seems to be coming true. Rodriquez, Porcello, and Kelly seem to be finding their way again, so add a true front of the rotation starter to that mix, get rid of the unreliable Buchholz, and stick with a reliable 5th starter with upside to round out the rotation (Wright--I assume Miley gets traded).
If the Sox cannot get fair value for Buchholz, don't dump him, keep him in the rotation and make Wright the long-man/spot starter and go from there.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 10, 2015 14:44:18 GMT -5
Looking back on the poll, I notice that I didn't vote for Joe Kelly. There must be some mistake. Obviously he wasn't included in the original poll.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 10, 2015 14:51:54 GMT -5
If Kelly starts the season in the rotation, which he seems to be making it hard for the FO to not go with, that almost has to assume either a trade of Miley or a Buchholz start on the DL.
Porcello isn't going anywhere DD has made it clear he wants to add a top flight arm E-rod hasn't done much to show that he isn't deserving of a rotation spot right now Kelly Buchholz/Miley
I think Miley would be a solid MLB piece in a prospect laden package for a starter. Otherwise, maybe a bullpen arm? But are you really going to trade a solid starter for a pen arm, probably not? That leaves Wright, Owens, Johnson etc. as your ready to go guys either in the pen or in AAA. I'd say Buchholz would be a trade candidate, but I would imagine he'll be more valuable if he is able to be healthy for a month+ into the season than coming off another injured season.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 10, 2015 15:06:53 GMT -5
We will need to go back and re-do this voting in the fall, after all the numbers are in, cause there's going to be a lot more love for Joe Kelly by then.
I mean REALLY, more people wanted Steven Wright than the guy who has won 8 starts in a row (indicative, but not useful statistic, I know).
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2015 0:35:58 GMT -5
Saying "put him in the 'pen" and "giving up on him as a starter" are two entirely different things. He would be more valuable in the bullpen in MLB than in AAA as a sixth starter. So before you start patting yourself on the back, remember that you're the one who said he effectively belonged I the minors. But, hey, self-aggrandizement opportunity. A #6 starter, if he performs adequately, is easily a favourite to pitch more MLB innings than anyone who starts the year in the bullpen. Fair enough, although I think that's debatable. My preference was to see Kelly go to the 'pen in the same way the Cards and Braves use their bullpen for young starters; in his case a re-break-in as opposed to breaking in a 23-yo. But he's also someone I would hope they would have quickly moved to the rotation if he were pitching well. He's previously pitched well in the rotation, and the catcher may significantly affect his approach/pitch selection (he's done well with both Molina and Hanigan). A 2/3 starter is also far more valuable than even a superb back-end bullpen arm, so I certainly wouldn't've wanted them to give up on him. It's more about filling holes (bullpen) and getting MLB value (rather than AAA time, which is where he was, and not doing particularly well at it). Carrasco was sent to the bullpen at 25-26 after getting shelled, sorted things out, and came back as a starter. I think that's the way to approach guys who struggle for some reason despite great stuff...simplify the plan, work with fewer pitches, attack hitters, learn not to fear baserunners, build confidence, give second chance. Plus, it's a role he's familiar with, with success. FWIW, I'm not all that impressed with his current run (his peripherals are just OK, and his efficiency has been fairly poor), but it is nice to see, and has probably earned him a rotation spot. That still leaves a big bullpen hole, but if he can pull a Scherzer/Carrasco/Kluber and bloom late, I'm all for it. It hopefully means Miley is trade bait, and Owens more likely to get a shot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2015 2:02:48 GMT -5
A #6 starter, if he performs adequately, is easily a favourite to pitch more MLB innings than anyone who starts the year in the bullpen. Fair enough, although I think that's debatable. My preference was to see Kelly go to the 'pen in the same way the Cards and Braves use their bullpen for young starters; in his case a re-break-in as opposed to breaking in a 23-yo. But he's also someone I would hope they would have quickly moved to the rotation if he were pitching well. He's previously pitched well in the rotation, and the catcher may significantly affect his approach/pitch selection (he's done well with both Molina and Hanigan). A 2/3 starter is also far more valuable than even a superb back-end bullpen arm, so I certainly wouldn't've wanted them to give up on him. It's more about filling holes (bullpen) and getting MLB value (rather than AAA time, which is where he was, and not doing particularly well at it). Carrasco was sent to the bullpen at 25-26 after getting shelled, sorted things out, and came back as a starter. I think that's the way to approach guys who struggle for some reason despite great stuff...simplify the plan, work with fewer pitches, attack hitters, learn not to fear baserunners, build confidence, give second chance. Plus, it's a role he's familiar with, with success. FWIW, I'm not all that impressed with his current run (his peripherals are just OK, and his efficiency has been fairly poor), but it is nice to see, and has probably earned him a rotation spot. That still leaves a big bullpen hole, but if he can pull a Scherzer/Carrasco/Kluber and bloom late, I'm all for it. It hopefully means Miley is trade bait, and Owens more likely to get a shot. He has a 3.55 FIP over the 8 starts, which is the best 8-game stretch of his career. His xFIP of 3.96 is close to his best, and all the better stretches had high BABIP, HR/FB, and ERA, which has often been a trade-off with him. He has a 98 xFIP- in this stretch, and a career 96 ERA- versus 107 xFIP-. I've looked at enough of his data to be completely sure that some of that difference is real. Ordinarily, you'd regress it to the mean, but he hasn't always used the approach that makes his ERA lower than his XFIP. Games where his ERA have been lower than his xFIP have tended to come in streaks (p = .13 for the streakiness happening at random). So if he can sustain a 98 xFIP-, I think he can put up an 87 to 93 ERA-. That's a average to good 3rd starter, maybe even a borderline 2/3.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 11, 2015 9:00:17 GMT -5
There should be a topic like this for the bullpen. I hope the Sox are open to AA candidates for the pen. Regarding the staff like I said one big money pitcher go for it. Price or Cueto. Just go for it. If he is not worth it I think Espinoza and Kopech you have two top of the. Rotation kids. They will be up here fast and Mark my words this will not Be because the Sox rush them. It will because the kids fly thru the challenge . They also said this kid Roules I think is very talented also. Sorry if spelled wrong.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2015 15:53:57 GMT -5
Fair enough, although I think that's debatable. My preference was to see Kelly go to the 'pen in the same way the Cards and Braves use their bullpen for young starters; in his case a re-break-in as opposed to breaking in a 23-yo. But he's also someone I would hope they would have quickly moved to the rotation if he were pitching well. He's previously pitched well in the rotation, and the catcher may significantly affect his approach/pitch selection (he's done well with both Molina and Hanigan). A 2/3 starter is also far more valuable than even a superb back-end bullpen arm, so I certainly wouldn't've wanted them to give up on him. It's more about filling holes (bullpen) and getting MLB value (rather than AAA time, which is where he was, and not doing particularly well at it). Carrasco was sent to the bullpen at 25-26 after getting shelled, sorted things out, and came back as a starter. I think that's the way to approach guys who struggle for some reason despite great stuff...simplify the plan, work with fewer pitches, attack hitters, learn not to fear baserunners, build confidence, give second chance. Plus, it's a role he's familiar with, with success. FWIW, I'm not all that impressed with his current run (his peripherals are just OK, and his efficiency has been fairly poor), but it is nice to see, and has probably earned him a rotation spot. That still leaves a big bullpen hole, but if he can pull a Scherzer/Carrasco/Kluber and bloom late, I'm all for it. It hopefully means Miley is trade bait, and Owens more likely to get a shot. He has a 3.55 FIP over the 8 starts, which is the best 8-game stretch of his career. His xFIP of 3.96 is close to his best, and all the better stretches had high BABIP, HR/FB, and ERA, which has often been a trade-off with him. He has a 98 xFIP- in this stretch, and a career 96 ERA- versus 107 xFIP-. I've looked at enough of his data to be completely sure that some of that difference is real. Ordinarily, you'd regress it to the mean, but he hasn't always used the approach that makes his ERA lower than his XFIP. Games where his ERA have been lower than his xFIP have tended to come in streaks (p = .13 for the streakiness happening at random). So if he can sustain a 98 xFIP-, I think he can put up an 87 to 93 ERA-. That's a average to good 3rd starter, maybe even a borderline 2/3. As always, Eric, I appreciate the outstanding analysis and the effort going into it. I definitely believe that Kelly has made an approach/sequencing/pitch selection change that is real, and getting results. I'd kind of pegged him as a solid 3/ upside 2 guy (with a remote chance of suddenly clicking, getting SwMi stuff, and becoming a Carrasco-esque 1a), and the data you're presenting seem to bear that out. As for my "not all that impressed, so-so peripherals, yada-yada," the 3.55 FIP is dead-on with that, too. It may be the best of his career, but it's nothing special. If he'd gone 6-2, we might not even be having this discussion. I really hope he's turned a corner, though, and maybe started adopting a more cerebral approach. The arm is a no-doubter, but the last thing this team needs is a Wes Gardner redux. I'm quite convinced that Rodriguez will emerge as a 2 or better next year (although maybe not until the second half...more of this year's struggles through the spring are a fair bet). I also have hope that Porcello will stick with his sinker/CH combo and pitch more like the solid 3 he's been in the past. So their 2-3-4 may pitch more like 3-3-3, but that's not bad, especially with a strong offense and much-improved defense in the OF and hopefully in the INF as well. I still really hope they trade Miley (and maybe Buchholz) and give Owens a shot, but if DD actually does acquire a legitimate #1, that's a deep, and talented, rotation. Now, about the bullpen...
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2015 16:04:26 GMT -5
As an aside, the low (but not arbitrarily significant) p value of 0.13 suggests that the sample may simply not be large enough to adequately differentiate stochastic from deterministic performance variation. It's baseball so there's probably a lot of noise. I read somewhere that Kelly's FB usage was especially low during this streak, and given what you mentioned about his HR/FB rates, BABIP, etc, it's not entirely crazy to think that he's better off pitching pseudo-backwards, where his FB represents an "up" rather than "down" change of pace...because in high doses, it appears to be eminently hittable (and prone to extremely hard contact and probably some unpleasantly high exit velocities). However, this also gives me hope that he's maturing as a *pitcher*, and that further refinement of his secondaries with use (and maybe continued improvement if his FB command) will lead to his becoming not just a serviceable MLB starter, but a very valuable one.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2015 16:18:06 GMT -5
Sorry, I always take the bait, but I don't know that you can project a guy solely based on literally the best eight-start stretch of his career while also assuming that he's one of the rare guys with a significant true-talent ERA/xFIP split (based on all of 450 career innings, a decent chunk of which was spent coming out of the bullpen).
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2015 16:26:42 GMT -5
There should be a topic like this for the bullpen. I hope the Sox are open to AA candidates for the pen. Regarding the staff like I said one big money pitcher go for it. Price or Cueto. Just go for it. If he is not worth it I think Espinoza and Kopech you have two top of the. Rotation kids. They will be up here fast and Mark my words this will not Be because the Sox rush them. It will because the kids fly thru the challenge . They also said this kid Roules I think is very talented also. Sorry if spelled wrong. Yeah, lost in all of the (understandable) hype over Espinoza is the fact that Roniel Raudes debuted--and pitched very well--in the GCL at 17. Somebody posted some great info on his family pitching history elsewhere in here, but suffice to say, the kid can *pitch*, and if the scouting reports saying he's working around 90 are correct, it's not a stretch to think he may develop a plus fastball to go with his nice breaking stuff. His control is superb, so Im excited to see him bump up next year. I wonder if, with his pitchability, he goes to XST and then maybe Greenville next spring. I like the season Kopech had (oxilofrine is an OTC stimulant in lots of nutritional supplements, so I have minimal concern regarding his future on that front), but I don't think he'll be knocking on the door until late 2017, at the earliest. Same for Espinoza. And Raudes is probably four years away, as is Logan Allen. BUT...the young talent that they do have is close enough that I genuinely think that, should they sign a major FA starter, by the time that pitcher is in decline, they will have plenty of young, high-end, cost-controlled talent ready to offset the payroll cost. It's part of the main reason I'm advocating unloading Miley either without prospects for some young, talented AA or lower arms, or with prospects for a #2 starter. With Owens, Johnson, Wright, and Barnes...not to mention Kelly's turnaround...they're deep enough to hedge some bets, either by stocking up the mid-minors pitching talent to precede Espinoza et al, or by upgrading their SP quality (going from a 4/5 to a 2) for sufficient time (3-4 yr) to allow the new wave to break in (ERod, Owens, etc) and the next wave to break through (Espinoza, Kopech...).
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2015 16:39:06 GMT -5
Sorry, I always take the bait, but I don't know that you can project a guy solely based on literally the best eight-start stretch of his career while also assuming that he's one of the rare guys with a significant true-talent ERA/xFIP split (based on all of 450 career innings, a decent chunk of which was spent coming out of the bullpen). Oh, I totally agree that's it's not *safely* projectable, but it is a pleasant development. Better than if his best career stretch was his first eight starts and it's been down-hill since. The context is important.
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